Predictions Regarding DCL Fleet Expansion

[Horace Horsecollar]

It seems that the "3rd DCL ship" rumors are heating up again. In recent months, some rumors have been posted that a third ship is already being built -- that's very unlikely. But other rumors have said that a new design is ready to go, and it's just a matter of time before Disney approves and announces a contract with a shipyard -- that's much more believable.

My predictions:

-- There's a 60% chance that Disney will announce a fleet expansion within the next 6 months.

-- If Disney doesn't make such an announcement in the next 6 months, there's only a 5% chance they'll make an announcement in the next 3 years.

-- If such an announcement is made, there's a 10% chance it will involve a single new ship, an 80% chance that it will involve 2 new ships, and a 10% chance it will involve more than 2 new ships.

Here are my guesses about the design of the ship(s):

-- The ship(s) will look similar to the Wonder and Magic at first glance, but will have one additional deck with veranda staterooms.

-- There will be no Navigator Verandas. This will detract form the styling of the ship(s), but it will allow DCL to sell more full-price veranda staterooms.

-- The ship(s) will have a two-story "avenue" down the center of one deck (probably the restaurant deck) that can be used for parades and other events.

-- The new ship(s) will be designed for 7-night cruises. The ships will have seven rotation restaurants.

-- The ship(s) will offer at least two new stateroom categories. One might be inside staterooms with a capacity of 5. Another might be long, narrow, family suites with an inside bedroom for children and a verandah bedroom for the parents.

Any other preductions and guesses?

 

[alexandrew]

What are you basing these predictions on ?

 

[travelcrazy]

Those all sound like really great ideas and I'll be one of the first to book, but what are you predicting will be the destinations? I agree with the California prediction made by many, but you stated that it's more likely for 2 new ships to be built so... are you predicting they will both be on the west coast or will one of them go elsewhere? Just curious.

 

[Towncrier]

According to a CM at the Castaway Club reception, the new ship will have an additional 1 1/2 decks (not 2 decks like I had read somewhere on the internet). Captain Henry joked that they needed to add 5 ships in order to do all the itineraries that everyone wants (Alaska, Hawaii, Mediterranean, etc.)

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

Originally posted by alexandrew
What are you basing these predictions on ?

Excellent question.

The only one that has any basis in official announcements is my first point ("There's a 60% chance that Disney will announce a fleet expansion within the next 6 months.") Based on announcements in the press and by captains on the ships, there's been a design and business analysis effort going on for about two years now. I think it's coming to a point were Disney Corporate in Burbank will make a decision either to go ahead or to kill the project. I can't imagine that the DCL fleet expansion project will remain in a planning mode for two more years.

By the way, if a "go ahead" decision has already been made, then it's just a matter of timing the announcement for maximum effect. But if a "no go" decision has already been made, then the rumors of another ship will continue for years -- because they won't ever officially announce a "no go" decision.

The rest of my predictions are just guesses, often based on observations of other cruise lines.

For example, other ships that are only somewhat larger than the current Disney ships have four full and one partial deck with verandahs -- rather than three full and one partial deck with verandahs on the Disney ships.

My guess is that DCL management considers the Navigator Verandahs to be a mistake, even though they enhance the overall appearance of the ships. When the Disney ships were first launched, all verandah staterooms on deck 7 were cat. 5, on deck 6 were cat. 6, and on deck 5 were cat. 7. But then DCL had to downgrade all staterooms with Navigator Verandahs (and now even the staterooms with partially blocked verandahs) to cat. 7 -- with corresponding lower pricing. (The staterooms with conventional verandahs on deck 5 were upgraded to cat. 6.)

I made the guess about an indoor parade route because I've read that RCCL has this on at least one ship. For Disney, a parade venue is a natural.

My guess about seven dining rooms is based on how successful DCL has been with three different dining rooms. If DCL builds two new ships, the Wonder and Magic can handle the 3-night and 4-night cruises. The new ships can be optimized for 7-night cruises. I think that DCL knows that their passengers would be thrilled to be able to dine in a different dining room (and with the same servers) every night. It opens the door to new, exciting themes. The dining rooms would only need to be about half the size of the current dining rooms.

My guess about new cabin categories is based on the posts I've read on this board, where families of five are disappointed with their current options. Undoubtedly, DCL is losing business from families of 5.

[edited to fix typos]

 

[RIDISNEYLOVERS]

Horace Horsecollar: You have some really nice predictions - I hope you are right!!

With the Magic's dates for the remainder of 2004 not out yet, this may be a big indicator of the rumor becoming reality. Also with what cruise director Rick had to say on our cruise as well as a few others.

I hope all things for a new ship are a go and I will sit back and eagerly wait for the news!!

Lisa

 

[dwg]

We were on the 11/2 Magic Cruise. Our server told us that he just attended a meeting where they were told that plans for a third, larger ship will be finalized in January and it will come online in 2004.

 

[SusanU]

Just returned from the 11/6- 3 night cruise & Cruise Director Rick stated that a committee has been formed to discuss the possibility of a 3rd ship being built with the "West Coast" & "Mediteranean" as possible destinations. He stated "nothing firm yet, but we (the crew) were just informed in the past few weeks...".

 

[Michelle]

DCL long ago announced that they had formed a committee to study the possibility of a new ship or ships.

I've heard so many different stories from so many different people (including folks at DCL) that I've decided to just sit back and wait for an actual announcement. The speculation is fun, don't get me wrong, and Horace has some well thought out points, but nobody really knows the full story until DCL decides to make it public.

Until then, speculate away!

 

[tstobb]

Originally posted by WebmasterMichelle
Until then, speculate away!

DCL will become the contractor to replace NASA's aging fleet of space shuttles. Verandah rooms will become a thing of the past and the new Palo will serve their lamb in tubes. Swimming in the diaper-free Mickey pool will become a whole new challenge in zero g.

OK, maybe Werners picture ( http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=290834 ) is more realistic!

 

[Dave_from_Marietta]

LOL, tstobb!