Predictions for Dec 2024 Incentives?

[MICKIMINI]

I want to make on offer an a resale poly but I don’t know what a good price is…..

Resale prices are still too high IMO. Sellers will get itchy in a few days... Patience is not easy!

 

[MICKIMINI]

I jumped on the hybrid bandwagon myself during that late June / early July cycle - got the 150 at RIv - thankfully already had Poly resale....NO MORE POINTS FOR ME...OR AT LEAST I'LL CONTINUE TO BATTLE THE URGES

Famous "last words"!!

 

[sarahlord]

Resale prices are still too high IMO. Sellers will get itchy in a few days... Patience is not easy!

So you’re saying I should be more patient?

 

[BrianLo]

I want to make on offer an a resale poly but I don’t know what a good price is…..

So you’re saying I should be more patient?

I don’t have a crystal ball. But millions more points are being added to the association, so in a couple years is where I’m at personally. I’d like to see numbers back around 130-140pp, unless the market has dramatically changed.

The premium is already heavily built into its point chart, but I really don’t feel like it deserves even more premium over say Copper Creek in its resale price. Grand Floridan is still a much smaller association.

 

[Chili327]

So you’re saying I should be more patient?

I'd bet you could get what you want in a matter of months.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I wouldn't think so. If you can buy 100 points for $100/pt less than retail, that's $10K.

Yes, thank you for that @Brian Noble 10 X 10 does equal a hundred.

The point is that buying resale won't always save you five figures over buying direct. Sometimes, yes, but not always.

 

[Brian Noble]

It's definitely not three, which is where the decimal point would put you.

SAP (which was the subject of @BrianLo's post) can easily be had sub-$100, with good Dues levels.

 

[BrianLo]

It's definitely not three, which is where the decimal point would put you.

SAP (which was the subject of @BrianLo's post) can easily be had sub-$100, with good Dues levels.

I was kind of just flippantly thinking of the 215pp on a 150p contract direct at Poly people were talking about. Pretty easy to do 148pp or less at 11/14 of the O14.

Even Poly itself I’d imagine shortly; code for Poly direct is a very bad deal.

 

[BeachClub2014]

But for less than $1000 more at 150 points, you can buy an unrestricted resort.

Here's the message that @BrianLo quoted when saying this:

Public service announcement; Direct purchases are not restricted.

For five figures less, you can get a lovely O14 partially restricted resale contract.

SAP (which was the subject of @BrianLo's post) can easily be had sub-$100, with good Dues levels.

I must have missed the reference to comparing buying direct points under the new incentives versus buying resale SAP.

And on that note, moving on.

 

[BrianLo]

I must have missed the reference to comparing buying direct points under the new incentives versus buying resale SAP.

And on that note, moving on.

No worries! It was more an instead of talking people ‘up’, I was extolling the virtue of going ‘down’.

 

[Cfabar1]

Right now Direct Poly is the way I would go over resale poly…

However, I fully expect Poly prices to normalize soon, and find ourselves back in the 130-140 range — maybe 150… There is no way that increased supply will not ultimately lead to lower prices…

 

[Patmcpsu]

Right now Direct Poly is the way I would go over resale poly…

However, I fully expect Poly prices to normalize soon, and find ourselves back in the 130-140 range — maybe 150… There is no way that increased supply will not ultimately lead to lower prices…

That used to be my thought until I realized it’s supply/demand of the contracts themselves. The Island Tower increases demand two ways:
1) More studio rooms available (sweet spot on the Poly point chart; villas are overpriced)
2) Maintenance fees becoming lower, when most other places rose 4-5% this year

Now, it’s also possible that the tower makes the Poly overcrowded and diminishes its charm.

 

[supercarrie]

How many poly points are you looking for?

Around 150-175 if we swapped out our BLT or 100 if we just bought some additional points.

If prices drop in the next year, we would consider swapping out our BLT for Poly, but I'm really torn on that. The BLT point chart is so much better, but I love the Poly. We are doing a night at the new studio in the spring and that might sway things.

If 7 month availability remains easy, I'll be back on the hunt for more BLT points instead.

 

[MICKIMINI]

So you’re saying I should be more patient?

Yes!! I'm also waiting to see if prices go down. My favorite broker thinks they are ridiculously high as well. There are lots of contracts available so fingers crossed! Once MF's hit their account, let's hope reality sets in.

After touring at the Preview Center, DH and I were blown away but unwilling to pay direct since we already have a direct account. Maybe we get a winning powerball ticket under the tree this year? I would love to say 'I'll take 1000 points please". That would be SO sweet!

 

[MICKIMINI]

Around 150-175 if we swapped out our BLT or 100 if we just bought some additional points.

If prices drop in the next year, we would consider swapping out our BLT for Poly, but I'm really torn on that. The BLT point chart is so much better, but I love the Poly. We are doing a night at the new studio in the spring and that might sway things.

If 7 month availability remains easy, I'll be back on the hunt for more BLT points instead.

I'd keep your BLT points and buy Poly if you love it (gotta say I was ready to move into the Preview Center even though we just built a new home!!)

 

[sarahlord]

Yes!! I'm also waiting to see if prices go down. My favorite broker thinks they are ridiculously high as well. There are lots of contracts available so fingers crossed! Once MF's hit their account, let's hope reality sets in.

After touring at the Preview Center, DH and I were blown away but unwilling to pay direct since we already have a direct account. Maybe we get a winning powerball ticket under the tree this year? I would love to say 'I'll take 1000 points please". That would be SO sweet!

It’s soooo hard to wait!

 

[matt and beth]

Beginning of the year so so. By June, Nissan is out of business and GM announcing a move to Silicone Valley (after bailing on Ren Cen). Economy finally takes a plunge after many years of strong growth. DVC sales take a plunge because in reality, this year has been a strung on farce, economy is struggling, and everyone backs off expendable income. Hold on!

 

[Potigant]

Beginning of the year so so. By June, Nissan is out of business and GM announcing a move to Silicone Valley (after bailing on Ren Cen). Economy finally takes a plunge after many years of strong growth. DVC sales take a plunge because in reality, this year has been a strung on farce, economy is struggling, and everyone backs off expendable income. Hold on!

Cringe

 

[Chili327]

Beginning of the year so so. By June, Nissan is out of business and GM announcing a move to Silicone Valley (after bailing on Ren Cen). Economy finally takes a plunge after many years of strong growth. DVC sales take a plunge because in reality, this year has been a strung on farce, economy is struggling, and everyone backs off expendable income. Hold on!

Cringe

I feel like you both were born this century. Can I get cliff notes for an old guy? lol

 

[supercarrie]

I'd keep your BLT points and buy Poly if you love it (gotta say I was ready to move into the Preview Center even though we just built a new home!!)

Care to convince my husband we don't need a new kitchen, we actually need Poly points?

In all seriousness, I think we will likely add on Poly. It just might be in 2026, not 2025.