Predictions? Do you think this cruise will be cancelled?

[alabamatex]

We are booked for a cruise the first week of January 2021.

If you were to take a wild guess do you think this cruise will be cancelled based on the current state of the pandemic?

How much notice will we have if it is cancelled?

Thanks for any help!!!!!

 

[JM23457]

We are booked for a cruise the first week of January 2021.

If you were to take a wild guess do you think this cruise will be cancelled based on the current state of the pandemic?

How much notice will we have if it is cancelled?

Thanks for any help!!!!!

I would give it at least an 80% chance of being cancelled.

1. Ships can't cruise out of American ports without the the CDC's permission, and the CDC hasn't even released preliminary recommendations for how ships should resume cruising yet, let alone a timeline of when they can resume cruising.

2. There is currently no momentum toward resuming American cruising. Covid numbers are high in the U.S. We don't even have a viable path toward reopening the nation's schools, let alone cruises.

3. A Covid vaccine probably won't be available in the U.S. until at least early 2021. Numbers will likely stay high & people will probably stay scared until a successful vaccine is widely available.

4. WDW is open but not getting enough business to turn a profit. That probably is a hint to DCL of how bad business will be once cruising resumes. Cruise ships are seen as even riskier than theme parks. The early cruises will probably not be full enough to turn a profit.

5. DCL has released no information about how or when they plan to resume cruising.

6. The Disney brand emphasizes safety (notice that WDW opened a month later than Universal & Sea World), so when American cruising does resume, they're not going to be among the first. They'll wait & watch how things go for other cruise lines, take notes, and begin sailing a bit later when more families feel comfortable having seen other cruise lines do it successfully.

I do think American cruising will resume some time in the first half of 2021, but the first week of January is a long shot for DCL. March is more likely.

And this doesn't even address the issue of what restrictions & cutbacks will be in place once DCL does resume cruising.

 

[WickstarRunner]

It's being assumed that it'll take 60-90 days to re-staff and retrain the crew of the ships, so if you don't hear any news about progress being made in the next 6-8 weeks, you should safely assume it'll be cancelled at that point.

Personally, we're booked in April '21 and I don't have much hope of that happening. And like the PP said, we don't have any idea of what cutbacks are going to happen once cruises begin. To me (and of course, YMMV), that enough reason to cancel right there.

 

[Marc D]

We have a cruise set for the first week of March ’21 and we do not believe it will sail. DCL mentioned numerous time they would be one of the last cruise line to restart operations, which is logical because of their target audience, emphasis on safety and the fact they have other operations to keep the company going.

 

[ScooterScott44]

Put in a “no” vote as it is looking less likely. While I am usually optimistic it just doesn’t look likely. Many criuselines have cancelled out to late October, some to the end of the calendar year and didn’t someone already extend cancellations out to March ‘21.

We have a December cruise we are hanging on to for now but we already moved our May 2021 Tokyo - Seattle to a different trans-Pacific in 2022.

Best of luck.

 

[bobbiwoz]

My gut says no. We have a Nov 30th booked, and I think that’s going to be cancelled. Then we have one on Feb 1, and I’m starting to get worried about that.


I hope I am wrong.

 

[randumb0]

I would imagine that there won't be cruising until several months after an available vaccine. It will not sail

 

[DIS_MIKE]

I would plan on it not sailing at this point. The industry will likely remain shuttered until the vaccine is available.

 

[monkeydawn]

You wont be cruising DCL the first week of January 2021. At the risk of going political, I think we can all agree that the COVID response in the US has not been conducive to allow for pleasure cruising. Our response (to me) seems like more of the same, week after week. With no change in leadership (and direction) even possible until late January 2021, I dont see the US response becoming more conducive to pleasure cruising unless a widely accepted vaccine or treatment for COVID is available. There is no way a vaccine will be widely enough used for pleasure cruising by the first week of Jan 2021. Maybe a treatment but I doubt that.

Even if the CDC allowed cruising from US ports to resume between now and January, I am not sure DCL would be able to create the necessary infrastructure to allow for safe (from an actual safe and an optics standpoint) enough cruising that they would resume by the first week of January. Could they get access to the needed quick tests in the needed quantity? That, to me, is the biggest hurdle. This scenario which I find unlikely to happen ignores two other big points, will other countries accept US cruise passengers and will DCL be able to make it profitable enough to even take the risk?

*I really hope this isnt too political, I dont mean it as placing blame but I feel it's impossible to really discuss the short term future of cruising from the US without looking at our response to the virus, which is politically directed. Please dont ban me.

 

[Husker Mike]

I rescheduled our spring break cruise (first cancelled Dream cruise) for next April (our spring break moved), but I've always felt we'd be unlikely to sail. (But I figured it was worth taking a chance.) Over the last four months, I've gone from 80% unlikely to sail to about 95% unlikely. I should have until January to make the call, so I'm going to let it roll...but I'm not even attempting to make other plans surrounding it.

 

[DisneYE]

This.
There should be a pinned thread titled "will DCL start sailing again?" or "When will DCL start again"?
And this should be the gold standard response.
Perfect answer.

I would give it at least an 80% chance of being cancelled.

1. Ships can't cruise out of American ports without the the CDC's permission, and the CDC hasn't even released preliminary recommendations for how ships should resume cruising yet, let alone a timeline of when they can resume cruising.

2. There is currently no momentum toward resuming American cruising. Covid numbers are high in the U.S. We don't even have a viable path toward reopening the nation's schools, let alone cruises.

3. A Covid vaccine probably won't be available in the U.S. until at least early 2021. Numbers will likely stay high & people will probably stay scared until a successful vaccine is widely available.

4. WDW is open but not getting enough business to turn a profit. That probably is a hint to DCL of how bad business will be once cruising resumes. Cruise ships are seen as even riskier than theme parks. The early cruises will probably not be full enough to turn a profit.

5. DCL has released no information about how or when they plan to resume cruising.

6. The Disney brand emphasizes safety (notice that WDW opened a month later than Universal & Sea World), so when American cruising does resume, they're not going to be among the first. They'll wait & watch how things go for other cruise lines, take notes, and begin sailing a bit later when more families feel comfortable having seen other cruise lines do it successfully.

I do think American cruising will resume some time in the first half of 2021, but the first week of January is a long shot for DCL. March is more likely.

And this doesn't even address the issue of what restrictions & cutbacks will be in place once DCL does resume cruising.

 

[bcwife76]

We moved our cancelled August 2020 cruise til end of March 2021 and I think we have a less than 25% chance of it sailing. At this point I'm concerned about our August 2021 Europe cruise!

 

[AquaDame]

I don't think it will sail, especially if it is a longer cruise, but I also didn't think Florida would still be open if cases started surging either. I'm just a clueless citizen who wishes we could put this whole thing back in the box.

 

[Garyjames220]

We moved our cancelled August 2020 cruise til end of March 2021 and I think we have a less than 25% chance of it sailing. At this point I'm concerned about our August 2021 Europe cruise!

really?
thats a year away. I would like to think cruises we be how there were before a year from now as vaccines are looking promising

 

[Garyjames220]

I don't think it will sail, especially if it is a longer cruise, but I also didn't think Florida would still be open if cases started surging either. I'm just a clueless citizen who wishes we could put this whole thing back in the box.

well let’s be honest this virus should have never Left China in the first place but anyway

when is your guess dcl will start sailing again

 

[JM_97]

Highly doubtful. I don't wanna put a date on when cruises will return but it will be a while

 

[otten]

We moved our cancelled August 2020 cruise til end of March 2021 and I think we have a less than 25% chance of it sailing. At this point I'm concerned about our August 2021 Europe cruise!

Yea me too. I’m 50/50 that we’ll be able to sail in August

 

[mickey0624]

We are booked for a cruise the first week of January 2021.

If you were to take a wild guess do you think this cruise will be cancelled based on the current state of the pandemic?

How much notice will we have if it is cancelled?

Thanks for any help!!!!!

Honestly I can't imagine any cruising happening until very late 2021 or more likely 2022

 

[mickey0624]

really?
thats a year away. I would like to think cruises we be how there were before a year from now as vaccines are looking promising

People think an available vaccine is the magic bullet....it's really not, especially with about 40% of the country saying they won't get the vaccine. Therapeutics are the better option and they are probably at least a year or two away.

 

[Snowwhyt]

People think an available vaccine is the magic bullet....it's really not, especially with about 40% of the country saying they won't get the vaccine. Therapeutics are the better option and they are probably at least a year or two away.

It’s not a magic bullet, but it is a starting point. We will always have those who have no intention of getting the vaccine. We will also have those that want the vaccine but for medical reasons are unable to receive it. The first group will get sick and run the same risk as those who choose not to get the measles vaccine and not DCL’s fault. The second group will have to choose an alternative and safer vacation option with fewer unvaccinated folks and at a greater distance.