Potential buyer, math driving me crazy!

[havoc315]

If "where you want to stay" is the cheaper resorts because that's what your budget allows, which is the case here, then this is the same as buying based on points chart.

Only very very very indirectly.
If, because the home resort has a "cheaper" point chart, that leads you to buy fewer points, then it is "cheaper." Cheaper because you bought fewer points. And you bought fewer points, because of the point chart.

But.... BWV has a "better point chart" than BRV for example -- Looking at tonight, BWV standard studio is 13 points. BRV is 16 points for a studio.

So is BWV cheaper than BRV? Looking at current average resale prices, buying 150 re-sale points at BWV would be about $23,000. Buying 150 re-sale points at BRV would cost about $17,000.
So the point chart was totally irrelevant to the price UNLESS it changes the number of points I buy.

I'm not saying to ignore the point chart -- But "good" or "bad" point chart is irrelevant in itself. It only matters if you then convert it to the number of points you are going to purchase.
But if you know you're going to be buying 150 points regardless (or whatever total), then the point chart has no impact on the cost -- It only possibly affects the number of nights you can stay.

Which again goes back to "buy where you want to stay" -- And part of that calculation may very well be, "would I prefer 6 nights in resort ABC or 5 nights in resort XYZ." (In many cases, the point chart differences aren't big enough to change an entire extra night, often it will be a fraction of a night difference).

 

[CaptainAmerica]

But if you know you're going to be buying 150 points regardless (or whatever total), then the point chart has no impact on the cost -- It only possibly affects the number of nights you can stay.

I think that's the reverse of how most people think about it. I don't think they say "I want 150 points," I think they say "I want to stay a week in October in a Studio."

 

[sndral]

…
Of course, we don't have to rush, but our usual schedule for another trip would be this coming winter so buying now should get us closed in time instead of tossing another few grand into renting in December/January and THEN deciding to buy.

You are too late for December & likely January as well, everything is likely already booked. I offered on my first resale contract in Sept. & didn’t have my points available for booking until the end of November. Take a look at the closing thread for an idea of how long the resale process is currently taking. https://www.disboards.com/threads/closing-time-2021-and-2022-edition.3836891/page-109
You don’t have to buy all the points you ideally want to own right off the bat, you can ease in.
You could buy half the points you think you’ll ultimately need, focusing on finding a reasonably loaded contract, stretch those points via banking & borrowing to cover your next 3, 4, or 5 visits & by the time you run out of points have saved more cash to buy your next contract.

…
Yes, dues are part of the cost, and a definite consideration. But future dues aren't easy to predict and tend to converge over time. THe newest resorts almost always start with high dues, but then don't increase much. While the older resorts, after a period of stability, start to see bigger dues increases.

Example, last year, OKW increased about 5%, while RIV increased 0.01%.

The newest resorts didn’t always start high, indeed the Aulani debacle highlighted the possibility that DVC was setting MFs artificially low on resorts in active sales. https://www.disboards.com/threads/aulani-problems-lead-to-firings.2780785/
Here’s a chart of the historical dues for all of the DVC resorts https://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-p...content/2494-historical-annual-dues-by-resort & I can’t draw any conclusions from it & figure past performance is basically worthless when trying to predict future MFs.

 

[Sandisw]

Animal Kingdom Lodge to Epcot by bus is about 17 minutes.

Grand Floridan to Epcot by monorail is about 42 minutes.

That 17 bus ride doesn’t include waiting for it. And if you just miss one, you will wait at least another 10 to 15 minutes for another.

It took my 30 minutes in July use the monorail to Epcot from Grand so it’s not always 42.

But it’s not just about time. We just prefer not to ride them unless we must.

It’s why split stays are a great way to avoid it.

It still comes back to staying where you are happy and that includes the transportation option.

 

[havoc315]

is basically worthless when trying to predict future MFs.

That's why I don't put tooooo much effort into calculating the differences in future dues. It's too much of an unknown, for rather small differences.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Just because this advice has not been mentioned, if you are happy staying at SSR, buy there. It's a "bargain" compared to the other resorts and has the best availability. Not only that, but the time frame OP is looking at, availability at other resorts is usually pretty decent. Beach Club is the exception (very hard to get BCV @ 7 months) , and you'd be locked out of RIV - can you live with that? Book at SSR at 11 months, then check back at 7 months - chances are not bad you can switch to another resort if you want. Worst case you keep your reservation at SSR and that's not bad either...but not for us. We are dedicated on-property transportation users and the bus situation at SSR is a deal-breaker (plus my kids did not like SSR when we did the DVC tour). We went BLT and have stayed there and BWV - loved them both. Looking to stay in a 2br in BRV or CCV for our next stay.

 

[havoc315]

I think that's the reverse of how most people think about it. I don't think they say "I want 150 points," I think they say "I want to stay a week in October in a Studio."

Eh. Especially when buying re-sale, you don't get to purchase the exact number you need. And if you're planning on using your points across multiple resorts, then you need enough points for the higher point chart resorts anyway.

But for example, if you want to stay for a week in the middle of March in the standard studios:
AKV -- 116
BLT -- 144
BCV -- 134
BWV -- 113
BRV - 132
CCV - 134
GFV -- 179
OKW - 113
Poly -- 174
RIV - 160
SSR - 111

So, you probably aren't going to find an exact 132 point contract for BRV. You will almost certainly have to buy a 150 point contract for BLT, BCV, BRV, CCV. MAYBE you can find a 125 point contract for AKV, BWV, SSR and OKW -- But those contracts are harder to find, AND you pay more per point for smaller contracts. So you don't actually save that much with a smaller contract. For example, I just looked up some listings -- AKV, 125 points for $145 per point or $125 per point for 150 points -- $18,125 vs $18,700 -- So buying 25 fewer points only saved $575.
Meanwhile, for RIV, GFV, and Poly... you can get a 150 point contract and basically stay 13 nights every 2 years, or bump up the contract to get a full 14 nights every 2 years.

So really... the point charts just don't have a very significant influence on purchase cost.

Where they matter the most -- If you really don't care where you stay, and you are primarily trying to maximize your number of nights -- Same price, but you want a couple extra nights, that's where the point chart starts to have some relevance.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Eh. Especially when buying re-sale, you don't get to purchase the exact number you need. And if you're planning on using your points across multiple resorts, then you need enough points for the higher point chart resorts anyway.

But for example, if you want to stay for a week in the middle of March in the standard studios:
AKV -- 116
BLT -- 144
BCV -- 134
BWV -- 113
BRV - 132
CCV - 134
GFV -- 179
OKW - 113
Poly -- 174
RIV - 160
SSR - 111

So, you probably aren't going to find an exact 132 point contract for BRV. You will almost certainly have to buy a 150 point contract for BLT, BCV, BRV, CCV. MAYBE you can find a 125 point contract for AKV, BWV, SSR and OKW -- But those contracts are harder to find, AND you pay more per point for smaller contracts. So you don't actually save that much with a smaller contract. For example, I just looked up some listings -- AKV, 125 points for $145 per point or $125 per point for 150 points -- $18,125 vs $18,700 -- So buying 25 fewer points only saved $575.
Meanwhile, for RIV, GFV, and Poly... you can get a 150 point contract and basically stay 13 nights every 2 years, or bump up the contract to get a full 14 nights every 2 years.

So really... the point charts just don't have a very significant influence on purchase cost.

Where they matter the most -- If you really don't care where you stay, and you are primarily trying to maximize your number of nights -- Same price, but you want a couple extra nights, that's where the point chart starts to have some relevance.

I think you're being kind of pedantic.

Most people are going to look at those numbers and say they need a 150 point contract at Bay Lake Tower, but a 200 point contract at Riviera or Grand Flo.

 

[havoc315]

I think you're being kind of pedantic.

Most people are going to look at those numbers and say they need a 150 point contract at Bay Lake Tower, but a 200 point contract at Riviera or Grand Flo.

I disagree. But I'll speak for myself... I'd look at those numbers, and say I "need" a 150 point contract. And if I get it at Riviera or GFV, I'll have to give up 1 night every 2 years. And is it worth giving up that night.

I can't think of any situation where anyone "needs" any number of nights. DVC is a luxury purchase. What people will and should do is weigh the cost, weigh the number of nights they would get, etc.

Certainly, some people would choose to look for a bigger contract (although 160 point contracts are actually pretty common with RIV).

But do you really think in weighing between BLT and CCV... 144 points vs 134 points, that's really going to affect the number of points purchased?

Sure, if you're comparing OKW and GFV, going to the extremes, the point chart can have a real impact on the number of points you purchase. But across most comparisons, it's just not going to make a big difference.

Again, I'm not saying to ignore the point chart. But keep it in honest perspective -- Which is, "maybe a better point chart will give me an extra night per year, or an extra 1 night every 2 years... maybe a better point chart would let be more often stay in bigger units or better views..."

But even that only matters if you are sticking primarily to your home resort.

Say, I want to stay 3 nights per year in summer at the Poly, 3 nights per year in the fall at BRV, and 4 nights per spring at BWV..

The point charts will have zero impact on my final cost. Buying the home resort with the lowest point chart isn't going to save me money versus just buying the cheapest points

 

[Brian Noble]

So, the first thing to recognize is that combing to the Buying/Selling board and asking if you should buy DVC is kind of like going to TenTenths (a motorsports discussion board) and asking if it is a good idea to spend your weekends watching people drive fast and turn left*.

Should we scrap buying and hope that we can rent DVC @$20pp for perpetuity?

Maybe.

Here's one way to think about it. Figure BLT dues are about $7pp. That leaves a residual value of about $13pp. Amortizing over ~35 years (expires '60) at the S&P 500 long-term post-tax rate of return (7%) gives you a purchase price of about $170. That's probably within spitting distance of the median contract listing, give or take. There are lots of things to quibble with in this analysis, and I cut a lot of corners, but they may balance each other out. I'm probably not drastically off. So, buying is about a push vs. renting.

It turns out this is almost always the answer I get whenever I look no matter what. Who says markets aren't efficient?

Other advantages to buying: Owning gives you more control over when/where you stay. If you don't hold to expiration, there is likely to be some residual value at contract disposal barring a black swan event that craters WDW demand.

Other advantages to renting: Nothing is more flexible than cash. Go when you want, where you want, in the room you want, for as long as you want, without worrying about if you have enough points, the right points, etc. Get tired of WDW in five years? Fine. Just go somewhere else. Want to have a year where you do a blowout stay with extended family in several Grand Villas? Sure, go for it. Money is for spending.

At the end of the day, I think you are deciding whether or not you want to be "DVC Owners," and in the in-crowd. If you do, buy. If that doesn't move you to buy, don't. Easy peasy.

-----------------------
*: If you've never done it in person, it is more fun than it sounds---especially if you get to go as the guest of a car sponsor, which I've done a couple of times.

 

[Tymeece]

So, every 2 or 3 years we talk about DVC. We always find a way to talk ourselves out of it. Well this time my hubby is super serious and really wants to do it. (We rented DVC at BLT and BC in October and are apparently now ruined for our usual value/moderate stays, lol.) So I've been doing research and math for days. The problem is, the math is quite frankly, ****ty. Hoping for some advice.
So looking at the most cost efficient resorts to buy into,
and the ones with the best point charts,
versus the places we WANT to stay (hubby insists on something on monorail or skyliner),
versus needing to spend 20k or less if we want to avoid financing (which I do).
It basically comes out with nothing.

All the places that are long term best buyins have the highest point charts - Poly, GF, RIV (and it's restr. to boot) BLT is a decent middle ground I guess but you have to go so high right now because of all the ROFR buy backs I'm not sure if my math can be trusted. So we'd have to buy in more points.
The places with the good point charts seem pretty dumb to buy into, since you get less than 20 years on it (though we really love BCV and BW since Epcot is our favorite park). So they don't make long term sense.

Our "specs": We usually travel late October - March (right now we go about every 15-18 months, alternately fall one year then winter/early spring. for example we went in Jan. 2020 then Oct. 2021). It's me, hubby, and college age son (who doesn't date, doesn't seem to be planning for marriage and a family so not considering long term effects there). So we are happy with studio's but like 1br's too. Also likely to want to take our niece, nephew and their spouses who we are very close to if possible even if it means going less so that'd need a 2 br. (we'd be 7, at least until someone has a kid.)

I know nobody else can make the decision for us, but advice would be greatly appreciated.
Do you have suggestions on the best choice for us?
Should we scrap buying and hope that we can rent DVC @$20pp for perpetuity?
I'm so frustrated and I just don't see how to decide.
Appreciate any commentary.

I was in a very similar place as you. I have debated all things that you have mentioned for a long time. I just put in a bid on a BLT resale this week. Fingers crossed it goes through. I honestly think you can continue to rent but I wanted to hedge against long term inflation, finally. I of course wish I would have bought in a long time ago and I don't want to continue to have that feeling. As someone mentioned in replies, I think I view long term taking grandkids as my new teenagers grow in life. If things go sideways, I still feel like I will I will be able to sell and would have enjoyed the time I have had DVC 2. I would love direct member benefits but I couldn't justify having access to lounges, Top of the world, and other benefits I get with AP or Card for an almost extra 10-20K. I do love GFV but for the same money I couldn't make it work if my BLT contract goes through. Good luck in your decision!

 

[DonMacGregor]

I used a far more streamlined analysis: I had the cash, it won’t move the needle south on my retirement investments, I bought the points.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Any DVC math can work if DVC is what the heart wants. ANY way you slice and dice the numbers, it is a luxury, discretionary purchase. There is never a need to buy DVC. Having said that, we,he owned now for 20-years with over 500 points at three home resorts. Wouldn't look backwards or trade a minute of the time spent with family and friends DVC has allowed.

It's not for everyone, that's for sure, but it has been an amazing experience and great value for us.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I used a far more streamlined analysis: I had the cash, it won’t move the needle south on my retirement investments, I bought the points.

Yes, sir. Same here.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Yes, sir. Same here.

All joking aside, we bought in our 50’s, after we had established some financial security, so I don’t think a young couple/family that hasn’t had an opportunity to build wealth should throw large wad of cash at DVC.

 

[BeachClub2014]

All joking aside, we bought in our 50’s, after we had established some financial security, so I don’t think a young couple/family that hasn’t had an opportunity to build wealth should throw large wade of cash at DVC.

Which I fully understand and have no argument with. We didn't follow the same path with all of our points, just the more recent ones. When we first bought DVC we had a mortgage, two car payments, a gaggle of babies and a desire to come to WDW annually. It worked for us. Others may disagree with our choices, which is their right, but but it doesn't make them right

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Which I fully understand and have no argument with. We didn't follow the same path with all of our points, just the more recent ones. When we first bought DVC we had a mortgage, two car payments, a gaggle of babies and a desire to come to WDW annually. It worked for us. Others may disagree with our choices, which is their right, but but it doesn't make them right

A gaggle of babies. LOL Never heard that one before!

 

[BeachClub2014]

A gaggle of babies. LOL Never heard that one before!

More than one constitutes a gaggle.

 

[RoseGold]

Just because this advice has not been mentioned, if you are happy staying at SSR, buy there. It's a "bargain" compared to the other resorts and has the best availability. Not only that, but the time frame OP is looking at, availability at other resorts is usually pretty decent. Beach Club is the exception (very hard to get BCV @ 7 months) , and you'd be locked out of RIV - can you live with that? Book at SSR at 11 months, then check back at 7 months - chances are not bad you can switch to another resort if you want.

Yes, this is a good option at your price point, and also a good option if you're traveling with some flexibility with adult schedules. It's not like you'll get nothing at 7 months, it just might not be your first choice. Or, just go a week later, big deal.

 

[E2ME2]

DVC Math isn't Calculus; It's much more complicated than that!
There are so many variables to consider, and so many contributing factors.
I suffered extreme analysis paralysis when crunching the numbers, and I often reevaluate my current status when thinking about adding on. For 11 years I was super content in owning only at SSR, booking my 11Month Ressie ASAP, and then at 7 Months seeing if I could shop around. This has worked very well for us, and we have landed AUL, BWV, & AKL at the 7 Month mark, but not every year. Fortunately, we are content when we stick with SSR, so it's a good fallback plan for us, and our main objective is to just be "on-property" in winter. Recently, we added on at AKL & BCV, hoping to maybe score a Value Room OR a K-Club Level, and wanting the 11 Mo. window at BCV. This has changed our plans a little, in that the location of BCV is by far the best of all DVC locations, IMHO. The proximity to EPCOT & DHS can't be beat, and if/when I add on again it will be for that advantage. HOWEVER, we too had a limited budget when we first bought in 2010, and SSR was the clear winner in that math problem at that time.
So, OP, I can't give you advice based on my personal preferences, other than to remind you of my only regrets regarding our first DVC purchase. "I wish I had bought sooner, and I wish I had bought more points"!