Potential buyer, math driving me crazy!

[crisi]

If you need to make the math work, you are a bad candidate for DVC. DVC works best for people who can plan eleven months in advance (there is no reservation for THIS December or January at this time), who don't mind staying at the resort they bought at, and at seven months if something else is available, might switch, and can afford to tie up $20k+ of capital in a timeshare. Whose plans are firm (extended family makes firm plans.....difficult). You MIGHT save money -you probably won't if you have any intention of treating anyone other than who you'd pay for anyway and we certainly haven't. Don't buy where you will be disappointed to end up - you may end up there more often than not (especially given your travel patterns - from October to mid January plan on staying at your home resort every time - IF you book eight months in advance or before - otherwise, you may get locked out completely). So if your husband has his heart set on monorail or Skyliner, he will be disappointed if you don't buy there. It isn't worth it to save a few thousand on a purchase that is going to cost you hundreds of thousands over its lifetime to not be where you want to be.

Make sure to understand availability patterns - your post says you really don't yet. Because the thing that disappoints many new owners is the lack of availability for switching resorts - especially if you are looking to studios. The other thing that disappoints is that Disney is a business and if you don't want to see how they make pixie dust (did you know that to get cocaine, you have to soak coca leaves in gasoline?) don't buy DVC.

 

[rspencer38]

Not sure if it was mentioned already but long-term renting will eventually cost more than purchasing. When I first started renting DVC in 2017/2018 I was regularly getting points at $10-$11, whereas, nowadays points are regularly going for $20+. So that same 150 point rental is now over $1300 more than just a handful of years ago. Another important thing to realize is that you can always sell your contract and recoup a significant portion of your original purchase (if not make a small profit depending on resort and time frame held etc...).

For example - If I sold my RIV contract now at the average value of $148, I would lose about $4600 on my original purchase price. My dues over my first three years were about $3900 (155 x 3 x 8.38). So if I sold my contract today it would have cost me about $8500. In contrast, I've I had to rent the points I used (465 points over three years) it would cost me somewhere around $9300. Over time, this gap will continue to grow, and owning becomes a better financial path.

That being said, there is nothing wrong with renting as it does have some flexibility.

 

[Jgc014]

If you are okay renting, I think that can be a really solid option - there are lots of perks to renting. You can get any 11 month booking window, you don't have the substantial upfront financial obligation (money you save can be invested and grow), if you decide not to go to Disney for a few years, no big deal (you don't have to worry about lost points or renting), if you are flexible, you can sometimes find some fairly decent rental deals (that aren't much more than buying without the commitment, and if DVC declines in value, doesn't matter to you. I considered this route, but I am a compulsive trip changer, so renting did not exactly fit my travel style.

If you want to buy, have you ever stayed at SSR? I know you said skyliner or monorail, but I think SSR can be a nice economical option. Buy in price will be lower than most other WDW resorts - and it seems like prices are coming down and ROFR buybacks are easing up, MFs are fairly low, they have studios, one bedrooms, two bedrooms and the treehouses (depending on who you are traveling with), decent contract length, good point chart, good dining options at the resort itself as well as easy accessibility to Disney Spring, nice pools, nice and recent refurb. Yes, it is not incredibly close to any one park, but it is also very centrally located and not that far from any of the parks. You could probably buy about 160 points, which would easily get you a week in a SSR studio per year with room to bank towards next year.

I certainly wouldn't buy at SSR if you had no interest in staying here at all, but if you would be okay with it, then there is always the option to switch at the 7 month mark especially if your schedule is somewhat flexible and you would be looking at a one bedroom some of the time (as those typically book us last). Most recently I used my SSR points for a two bedroom at the Grand Californian, and in early December, I am using them for a studio at Cooper Creek.

 

[havoc315]

If you are okay renting, I think that can be a really solid option - there are lots of perks to renting. You can get any 11 month booking window, you don't have the substantial upfront financial obligation (money you save can be invested and grow), if you decide not to go to Disney for a few years, no big deal (you don't have to worry about lost points or renting), if you are flexible, you can sometimes find some fairly decent rental deals (that aren't much more than buying without the commitment, and if DVC declines in value, doesn't matter to you.

... And opens options beyond just the DVC properties. Regular resort rooms. And at times, there are cash deals on those rooms better than owning or renting DVC -- Such as, in the past, when they had free dining for a family of 4. The savings were potentially well worth it.

Looked at another way..... Say your upfront cost for DVC is $30,000 (approximately $150 per point for 200 points). And then you're paying $7.50 per point in dues -- $1500 per year.

Now, if you took that same $30,000 and put it into relatively low risk investments -- Withdrawing from that account as a vacation budget, your vacation budget would be:
The $1500 you would have spent on dues PLUS your annual withdrawal -- If we are comparing it to a 2042 DVC contract, then the goal is to withdraw every year until you're down to zero in 2042. That comes down to about $2500 per year in withdrawals plus the $1500 in dues -- So your new lodging vacation budget is about $4000 per year.

So.... that's the question -- Would you rather have 200 points worth of lodging at a DVC resort every year until 2042 (with all the rule limitations of DVC), or a lodging budget of $4,000 per year for the next 20 years, with no rule limitations.
At full rack rate, that would get me a resort room at Beach Club for a week in February, for example. But 200 points would get me more like 10 days. Of course, you might be able to get a discount off rack rate, that brings is much closer to in-line with using points. You can also rent the points. Or, you may choose an entirely different type of vacation. Or, you may decide you like staying in a luxury off-site property, where that $4,000 gets you something better than 10 days in a Beach Club studio.

So in this comparison... $4,000 in cash each year, without restrictions, or 200 points with all the booking restrictions and limitations.

 

[RoseGold]

Not sure if it was mentioned already but long-term renting will eventually cost more than purchasing. When I first started renting DVC in 2017/2018 I was regularly getting points at $10-$11, whereas, nowadays points are regularly going for $20+. So that same 150 point rental is now over $1300 more than just a handful of years ago. Another important thing to realize is that you can always sell your contract and recoup a significant portion of your original purchase (if not make a small profit depending on resort and time frame held etc...).

I would have been better off renting, if I had just put the money in the market, and my contract did well. That would be true for most time periods, unless the market is doing really poorly and DVC really well for a few years, which has happened a few times.

There are downsides to renting, but I wouldn't put math in there. I can easily make a math argument for renting, especially when upfront cash is an issue, like for OP, and especially if you want more expensive points, like BW/BC.

 

[beldred]

I want to thank everyone so much for all the replies. I have read every one and there are so many good points on all sides. Which of course doesn't help at all.

But as very validly pointed out... it not about the math it's about whether or not you want it - like with any luxury purchase. So, I think we have definitely decided to buy vs. rent. 1 decision down!!
NOW, it's about WHERE to buy of course, the hardest of the choices. We love BCV and would love to buy there but I just can't stomach the 19 years vs. 40ish! Ugh.

BLT is my 2nd choice but not a good time to try to buy there it seems. (I'll check the ROFR thread for new updates next - been in the woods offline for 4 days!) So looks like the most recommended here is Poly (if I ignore SSR which I know he wouldn't want to stay at). I'm not real worried about the whole Poly2 thing, I think there will always be demand for studios so hopefully a contract there will retain value. Not that I plan on selling but we're hovering around the age 50 mark and if my son decides he doesn't want it when we're gone, I'd like to have left him something of value on resale.

So it seems like I have a "short list" of properties. I'm thinking let the property decision make itself based on what contracts are for sale in the right range. Maybe try to get around 100 points and then possibly we can add on direct in a few years a little at a time when they offer some member deals?

Thanks again for all the past comments and any future ones.

 

[crisi]

If you are 50 (I'm 55) and LOVE BCV and have figured out that the purchase cost is not the important part here, then buy there. My own kids are unlikely to ever be in a position to want DVC enough to make the sacrifices needed to afford DVC - so I'm not worried about passing it on (your milage may vary - you may have a son who is headed to a lucrative career AND is a huge Disney fan - in which case he'll be able to afford his own contract). And in 19 years you will be 69....and at that point you can rent or pay cash - but my guess is that by then you'll take fewer Disney trips.

BCV (and VGC) are the least likely to be able to get a studio at seven months. It might happen. A few times during the next 19 years. Now the question to ask - do you want to spend 19 years staying at the place you love, or spend the next 19 years staying at a place you bought as a second choice thinking "we could be at BCV." And maybe you aren't that sort of person and will be delighted with your second choice.

(The other reason to buy at BCV - Epcot is the old people park For everyone about to tell me how wrong I am, its a joke)

 

[RoseGold]

It's not impossible to book a BC studio. I've done it three times with SSR. Especially if you are retired and flexible.

I'd buy either Poly or BLT as just sleep around points. And if you want BLT, risk the ROFR. There are plenty more contracts.

 

[kanerf]

Relax, take some deep breaths. Now, where do you want to stay? Whenever you book, where is your resort of choice? That should be the one you look for. Don't think about the costs, in the long run it works out to a great deal over paying retail prices for Disney hotels and the rooms are bigger as well.

 

[Brian Noble]

Epcot is the old people park

Reminds me of this excellent tweet (NSFW). (The whole thread is great.)

 

[beldred]

If you are 50 (I'm 55) and LOVE BCV and have figured out that the purchase cost is not the important part here, then buy there. My own kids are unlikely to ever be in a position to want DVC enough to make the sacrifices needed to afford DVC - so I'm not worried about passing it on (your milage may vary - you may have a son who is headed to a lucrative career AND is a huge Disney fan - in which case he'll be able to afford his own contract). And in 19 years you will be 69....and at that point you can rent or pay cash - but my guess is that by then you'll take fewer Disney trips.

BCV (and VGC) are the least likely to be able to get a studio at seven months. It might happen. A few times during the next 19 years. Now the question to ask - do you want to spend 19 years staying at the place you love, or spend the next 19 years staying at a place you bought as a second choice thinking "we could be at BCV." And maybe you aren't that sort of person and will be delighted with your second choice.

(The other reason to buy at BCV - Epcot is the old people park For everyone about to tell me how wrong I am, its a joke)

I'm 48 and hubby just turned 50. And our son wants to be a high school teacher (is about to graduate college, hopefully in December), so definitely not lucrative. He's not really interested in a family (to my heartbreak) so I imagine he'll simply sell the contract when we're gone. Though he enjoys going on trips with us every time, I don't see him doing it on his own. So yeah, I need to just think about right now I guess. Thanks for helping me get my mind on that. I think subconsciously I hope he's going to suddenly want a spouse and kids. LOL

We love Epcot. It's definitely hubby's favorite park and my 2nd favorite (because nothing will ever beat my love for Haunted Mansion).

Relax, take some deep breaths. Now, where do you want to stay? Whenever you book, where is your resort of choice? That should be the one you look for. Don't think about the costs, in the long run it works out to a great deal over paying retail prices for Disney hotels and the rooms are bigger as well.

I do need to relax for sure.
We'd most want to stay Boardwalk or Beach Club I think. Hubby loves Beach Club because it's the closest walk but the pool is wasted on us. I think Boardwalk looks lovely but never stayed there. We were also happy at BLT, I loved the lake view balcony. Poly seems great, never stayed there but I'm obsessed with Dole Whips and love the theme (and O'hana of course) so we have visited it often. Heard that the DVC rooms are poorly located though?
Valid point that no matter what, in the long run we do save some money over renting and if my math is correct, even save over stays at Pop Century (our favorite place when we aren't renting DVC).

 

[Sandisw]

I'm 48 and hubby just turned 50. And our son wants to be a high school teacher (is about to graduate college, hopefully in December), so definitely not lucrative. He's not really interested in a family (to my heartbreak) so I imagine he'll simply sell the contract when we're gone. Though he enjoys going on trips with us every time, I don't see him doing it on his own. So yeah, I need to just think about right now I guess. Thanks for helping me get my mind on that. I think subconsciously I hope he's going to suddenly want a spouse and kids. LOL

We love Epcot. It's definitely hubby's favorite park and my 2nd favorite (because nothing will ever beat my love for Haunted Mansion).



I do need to relax for sure.
We'd most want to stay Boardwalk or Beach Club I think. Hubby loves Beach Club because it's the closest walk but the pool is wasted on us. I think Boardwalk looks lovely but never stayed there. We were also happy at BLT, I loved the lake view balcony. Poly seems great, never stayed there but I'm obsessed with Dole Whips and love the theme (and O'hana of course) so we have visited it often. Heard that the DVC rooms are poorly located though?
Valid point that no matter what, in the long run we do save some money over renting and if my math is correct, even save over stays at Pop Century (our favorite place when we aren't renting DVC).

My response is going to sound selfish but when we have decided on resorts, it’s been what I love and DH would enjoy as well.

My adult kids have their favorites too but when buying..and adding them to some of our contracts as owners..they were my choices. Since we were paying, they understood and were cool with that.

All this to say that if you and DH really want to be at one of those Epcot resorts, then go for and don’t worry about it expiring with no value especially when you believe your son will sell it anyway.

Now, we did sell BWV to buy RIV so we owned something that expired longer..and it is my top resort..but my kids want to continue to go for years to come.

I think DVC is too much money to not get what you want and TBH, with the way the program is changing with resale restrictions, none of us know if the resale value that has stayed healthy will continue in 20 years when more and more resorts can’t be used by resale buyers.

Good luck!!

 

[kanerf]

I'm 48 and hubby just turned 50. And our son wants to be a high school teacher (is about to graduate college, hopefully in December), so definitely not lucrative. He's not really interested in a family (to my heartbreak) so I imagine he'll simply sell the contract when we're gone. Though he enjoys going on trips with us every time, I don't see him doing it on his own. So yeah, I need to just think about right now I guess. Thanks for helping me get my mind on that. I think subconsciously I hope he's going to suddenly want a spouse and kids. LOL

We love Epcot. It's definitely hubby's favorite park and my 2nd favorite (because nothing will ever beat my love for Haunted Mansion).



I do need to relax for sure.
We'd most want to stay Boardwalk or Beach Club I think. Hubby loves Beach Club because it's the closest walk but the pool is wasted on us. I think Boardwalk looks lovely but never stayed there. We were also happy at BLT, I loved the lake view balcony. Poly seems great, never stayed there but I'm obsessed with Dole Whips and love the theme (and O'hana of course) so we have visited it often. Heard that the DVC rooms are poorly located though?
Valid point that no matter what, in the long run we do save some money over renting and if my math is correct, even save over stays at Pop Century (our favorite place when we aren't renting DVC).

Boardwalk is great. I own there. Has one of the lowest points schedules around. I also own at BLT. If you don't mind the 2042 cutoff, I would say look for a good resale and jump on it.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I'm 48 and hubby just turned 50. And our son wants to be a high school teacher (is about to graduate college, hopefully in December), so definitely not lucrative. He's not really interested in a family (to my heartbreak) so I imagine he'll simply sell the contract when we're gone. Though he enjoys going on trips with us every time, I don't see him doing it on his own. So yeah, I need to just think about right now I guess. Thanks for helping me get my mind on that. I think subconsciously I hope he's going to suddenly want a spouse and kids. LOL

We love Epcot. It's definitely hubby's favorite park and my 2nd favorite (because nothing will ever beat my love for Haunted Mansion).



I do need to relax for sure.
We'd most want to stay Boardwalk or Beach Club I think. Hubby loves Beach Club because it's the closest walk but the pool is wasted on us. I think Boardwalk looks lovely but never stayed there. We were also happy at BLT, I loved the lake view balcony. Poly seems great, never stayed there but I'm obsessed with Dole Whips and love the theme (and O'hana of course) so we have visited it often. Heard that the DVC rooms are poorly located though?
Valid point that no matter what, in the long run we do save some money over renting and if my math is correct, even save over stays at Pop Century (our favorite place when we aren't renting DVC).

I think you'll find a bunch of BWV / BCV owners on here that would say they don't regret their contracts at all despite the end date.

On this board, it's easy to get sucked into "the best deal" competition. BCV/BWV may not be the "best deal" but it doesn't mean it's a bad deal.

 

[Disney World Dad]

The Poly can give you sort of the best of both worlds. You have the longevity of the longer contract which will mean the contract will retain it's value 20+ years from now (when BW/BC contracts will be dropping significantly with little usable life left) and if you want to alternate and stay at either BC/BW for a trip, you can either try to find a reservation at the 7 month mark OR rent out your Poly points beyond 7 months and use that money to rent points at the BW/BC or wherever else you may want to stay.

 

[hereforthechurros]

Just want to say it’s totally okay for it not to make sense for your family. A lot of people will say it’s find to spend more and finance it but only do what you feel comfortable with. Financing takes away a LOT of the value and savings so you’re smart to want to pay cash. Good luck!

 

[crisi]

I think you'll find a bunch of BWV / BCV owners on here that would say they don't regret their contracts at all despite the end date.

On this board, it's easy to get sucked into "the best deal" competition. BCV/BWV may not be the "best deal" but it doesn't mean it's a bad deal.

Once you get to the point of recognizing that its a luxury purchase, the best deal is buying where you want to end up more often than not. Buying a resort you don't want to stay at is NOT a good deal. Although, this holds less true for someone in their 30s than someone in their 50s. For someone in their 30s, you do want to pay more attention to expiration dates.

 

[redboat45]

It sounds like you're really like BLT. I'd search for an international seller. They usually go a little cheaper and have yet to see one not pass ROFR.

I don't own at BLT and regret that. I wish we had stayed there before we bought our last round of points. Stayed there a couple of years ago and fell in love. There is nothing like being that clsoe to MK!

 

[beldred]

So thanks to you guys I have narrowed my search to BWV and BLT with Poly and maybe BCV to keep an eye for in case of a great deal. I've started the contract hunt. Sooooo, if anyone spies a good buy on those that they need help resisting, feel free to message me!

Do they always say if it's an international seller? I saw on one listing on a site but haven't seen it any others. I assume they are either rare or not all sites list them?

 

[Sandisw]

So thanks to you guys I have narrowed my search to BWV and BLT with Poly and maybe BCV to keep an eye for in case of a great deal. I've started the contract hunt. Sooooo, if anyone spies a good buy on those that they need help resisting, feel free to message me!

Do they always say if it's an international seller? I saw on one listing on a site but haven't seen it any others. I assume they are either rare or not all sites list them?

Not all sites list it but will tell you if you ask.