Potential buyer, math driving me crazy!

[CaptainAmerica]

So looking at the most cost efficient resorts to buy into,
and the ones with the best point charts,
versus the places we WANT to stay (hubby insists on something on monorail or skyliner),
versus needing to spend 20k or less if we want to avoid financing (which I do).
It basically comes out with nothing.

I think DVC isn't for you if these are your requirements.

I know this sounds trite, but DVC only works for you if it works for you. You can't force it to work for you or you'll be unhappy with it.

Candidly, I think your husband is being unreasonable. He's making a $20,000 stink because he only wants to take buses to 2 or 3 parks instead of 3 or 4 parks.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Lol. This is true. And there is an extent to which if you are very particular you will dislike the product overall because it is very limiting. We rarely end up where we “want” to stay, but we are okay with that. (Our complaints are with disney more generally, not with dvc). If you do end up dealing with a larger group this becomes even more so the case because things come up and you will have to switch the dates. Then good luck if you get anything at all.

 

[RoseGold]

Candidly, I think your husband is being unreasonable. He's making a $20,000 stink because he only wants to take buses to 2 or 3 parks instead of 3 or 4 parks.

This is doable at 20K with a 100 point BLT/Poly1 contract in studios. This isn't doable at <20K if you want to bring everyone in the family along also, because 100 points won't go far in 2BRs. And maybe he doesn't want to spend another 20K on other people's vacations (fair).

IMO, the Skyliner's obvious endpoint is TTC, and Poly will be the best transportation anywhere.

I think transportation is a totally reasonable buy restriction, but it's a tough one with a budget this tight.

 

[havoc315]

So, every 2 or 3 years we talk about DVC. We always find a way to talk ourselves out of it. Well this time my hubby is super serious and really wants to do it. (We rented DVC at BLT and BC in October and are apparently now ruined for our usual value/moderate stays, lol.) So I've been doing research and math for days. The problem is, the math is quite frankly, ****ty. Hoping for some advice.
So looking at the most cost efficient resorts to buy into,
and the ones with the best point charts,
versus the places we WANT to stay (hubby insists on something on monorail or skyliner),
versus needing to spend 20k or less if we want to avoid financing (which I do).
It basically comes out with nothing.

All the places that are long term best buyins have the highest point charts - Poly, GF, RIV (and it's restr. to boot) BLT is a decent middle ground I guess but you have to go so high right now because of all the ROFR buy backs I'm not sure if my math can be trusted. So we'd have to buy in more points.
The places with the good point charts seem pretty dumb to buy into, since you get less than 20 years on it (though we really love BCV and BW since Epcot is our favorite park). So they don't make long term sense.

Our "specs": We usually travel late October - March (right now we go about every 15-18 months, alternately fall one year then winter/early spring. for example we went in Jan. 2020 then Oct. 2021). It's me, hubby, and college age son (who doesn't date, doesn't seem to be planning for marriage and a family so not considering long term effects there). So we are happy with studio's but like 1br's too. Also likely to want to take our niece, nephew and their spouses who we are very close to if possible even if it means going less so that'd need a 2 br. (we'd be 7, at least until someone has a kid.)

I know nobody else can make the decision for us, but advice would be greatly appreciated.
Do you have suggestions on the best choice for us?
Should we scrap buying and hope that we can rent DVC @$20pp for perpetuity?
I'm so frustrated and I just don't see how to decide.
Appreciate any commentary.

Don't obsess about point charts -- Point charts are a reflection of cost, not a reflection of value. All Star Sports is cheaper than Grand Floridian, does that mean All Star Sports is better than Grand Floridian?
Lower points just means it is a cheaper resort. Doesn't make it better.
But most critically... you're not locked into 1 resort's point chart.

I do think the best value right now is actually buying Riviera direct, especially if being on the skyliner appeals to you. Though it is a bit more expensive than you wanted -- About $30k for 150 points.
But those are good for trading in to any resort, current or future, and give you 47 more years.
If that is too rich, then the best long-term values in re-sale are probably BLT and AKV. If you want to be on the monorail, BLT...
But 150 re-sale points at BLT will still cost you around $25,000. So you're saving $5k... you get 10 fewer years. You don't get blue card perks. And most importantly, you are restricted from use of Riviera and future resorts. In 19 years, there may only be a handful of resorts you can use.
So is that worth saving $5k? Not suggesting there is a right or wrong answer, it's a subjective question.


Keeping it under $20k is going to be a real challenge unless you really buy a low point total. You could look for a 125-150 point contract at AKV or SSR... but those do not appear to be your top choices for home resort.

 

[havoc315]

Candidly, I think your husband is being unreasonable. He's making a $20,000 stink because he only wants to take buses to 2 or 3 parks instead of 3 or 4 parks.

I couldn't disagree more. A huge chunk of the value of Deluxe resorts is the LOCATION. For me, it's the biggest chunk of the value. If I was stuck taking buses 100% of the time, I'd save a ton of money by simply staying off property. Get a nicer resort for half the price by staying off property.
The whole value of being on-property is to have 1-2 parks that I can either walk to, or get to in just minutes without having to drive, ride a bus, etc.

Take Grand Floridian and stick it in the Saratoga Springs location... I wouldn't be willing to pay even $100 per night.

 

[RoseGold]

When I bought SSR, I figured my "back up" room would be Kidani savanna view. The low points book first, and there are whoooole lot of these rooms. It's a room I would be happy with and knew I could pretty much always book when I was going.

If he's not happy off monorail/skyliner, you need to buy monorail points. Sure, it any points would work most of the time, but not always.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Don't obsess about point charts -- Point charts are a reflection of cost, not a reflection of value. All Star Sports is cheaper than Grand Floridian, does that mean All Star Sports is better than Grand Floridian?
Lower points just means it is a cheaper resort. Doesn't make it better.

Disagree, and the comparison between DVC points/price per point and All Star Sports and GF is not a good one. The points chart for RIV is VERY high, while the price per point, especially for direct, is on the low side. You have to consider both. You also have to consider the dues on those points. RIV dues per point are high, and you will need more points - that MUST be considered as the OP pointed out, the MF costs pretty quickly outweigh the one time cost per point you pay for the contract.

Spreadsheets are your friend - it's not that difficult once you dive in.

Should also note in response to those who think you should just rent points; the cost per point to rent ALSO goes up over time.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

The whole value of being on-property is to have 1-2 parks that I can either walk to, or get to in just minutes without having to drive, ride a bus, etc.

Animal Kingdom Lodge to Epcot by bus is about 17 minutes.

Grand Floridan to Epcot by monorail is about 42 minutes.

 

[RoseGold]

Should also note in response to those who think you should just rent points; the cost per point to rent ALSO goes up over time.

Renting points has a lot of plusses. No overall risk about your five figures. Can pick any home resort. Don't have to come up with a pile of cash right now.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

So, every 2 or 3 years we talk about DVC. We always find a way to talk ourselves out of it. Well this time my hubby is super serious and really wants to do it. (We rented DVC at BLT and BC in October and are apparently now ruined for our usual value/moderate stays, lol.) So I've been doing research and math for days. The problem is, the math is quite frankly, ****ty. Hoping for some advice.
So looking at the most cost efficient resorts to buy into,
and the ones with the best point charts,
versus the places we WANT to stay (hubby insists on something on monorail or skyliner),
versus needing to spend 20k or less if we want to avoid financing (which I do).
It basically comes out with nothing.

All the places that are long term best buyins have the highest point charts - Poly, GF, RIV (and it's restr. to boot) BLT is a decent middle ground I guess but you have to go so high right now because of all the ROFR buy backs I'm not sure if my math can be trusted. So we'd have to buy in more points.
The places with the good point charts seem pretty dumb to buy into, since you get less than 20 years on it (though we really love BCV and BW since Epcot is our favorite park). So they don't make long term sense.

Our "specs": We usually travel late October - March (right now we go about every 15-18 months, alternately fall one year then winter/early spring. for example we went in Jan. 2020 then Oct. 2021). It's me, hubby, and college age son (who doesn't date, doesn't seem to be planning for marriage and a family so not considering long term effects there). So we are happy with studio's but like 1br's too. Also likely to want to take our niece, nephew and their spouses who we are very close to if possible even if it means going less so that'd need a 2 br. (we'd be 7, at least until someone has a kid.)

I know nobody else can make the decision for us, but advice would be greatly appreciated.
Do you have suggestions on the best choice for us?
Should we scrap buying and hope that we can rent DVC @$20pp for perpetuity?
I'm so frustrated and I just don't see how to decide.
Appreciate any commentary.

The math likely sucks because you are trying to do a lot **more** than you are currently doing (upgrading your resort, jumping to 1 or 2 bd and taking friends/family) vs staying in values and moderates.

How old are you? (if you want to share)

We bought 60 pts @ BWV in 2017 with HS age kids and while I am starting to add on with the future in mind, it has been going well for us. We were every 18 month travelers as well (though that changed pretty quickly). We've added on 30 at SSR since and will probably do another 30 soon. And I'm anxiously awaiting a price drop on BWV within the next 5-10 years to scoop up a hefty bundle of points for our retirement plans. Timing would be great for us. Then, we will probably buy another 100 somewhere with a longer contract end date if/when grandkids come along (to leave to the family if they're interested).

We booked a studio in January for 45 points (yes, 9 pts per night for 5 nights). We only stay at the higher point resorts for 2-3 nights (as a split stay) to make things work. So, I think we ended up dropping 1 night of BWV (now 4 nights @36 pts) and adding 2 nights at Poly (for 37 points?). So, even on my 90 points, we could have added a 3rd night at Poly depending on what we had banked, were willing to borrow or spend on OTU points. That being said, Poly was fine, but nowhere else we've stayed compares to BWV for use as we love Epcot and HS more than anything.

Though my points are direct (rules and pricing and closing costs etc were different back then), we did not spend $20K. So, with a $20K budget today, and a willingness to buy resale, you have plenty of money to buy over 100 points and should be able to at least upgrade your typical moderate / value stay to a studio at a lower points resort.

I, personally, am not comfortable renting points. We have had to change our plans way too many times for me to feel "stuck" in a rental situation.
BUT, if you're comfortable renting, it's probably still a very good option for you. The math for buying DVC typically works out if you are comparing to mods with a discount. Which was our go-to Disney vacation pre-DVC.

Also, right there with you on the "pen in hand in 2009". Pretty sure that would have been 160 points at AKV for $16K for us. But still, I was able to do more with my $$$ in 2017 than I could now in 2022. It just keeps getting harder.

 

[limace]

One thing to consider is to buy enough points for your family-100 points at BLT, perhaps-and then rent a point transfer if/when you want to invite family.

 

[Lumpy1106]

One thing to consider is to buy enough points for your family-100 points at BLT, perhaps-and then rent a point transfer if/when you want to invite family.

I would not base any decisions around a DVC purchase on friends and family. That's a pretty unreliable lot IME. Maybe they want to join you, maybe they don't, maybe they aren't as committed to the trip as you are, maybe they want last minute changes - it's not the kind of dynamic you want to consider on a trip you need to plan 11 months out. Just tell them when you are going and let them make their own accommodations. It's pretty easy to plan once everyone is on property.

 

[havoc315]

Disagree, and the comparison between DVC points/price per point and All Star Sports and GF is not a good one. The points chart for RIV is VERY high, while the price per point, especially for direct, is on the low side. You have to consider both.

No.... Because you don't have to use the RIV points at Riviera.

If you buy direct SSR points and want to stay at RIV, the cost of standard studio (for the night I'm looking at) is 17 points.
If you buy direct RIV points and want to stay at RIV, then the cost of a standard studio is 17 points.
If you buy direct SSR and want to stay at SSR, then the cost of a standard studio is 13 points.
If you buy direct RIV and want to stay at SSR, then the cost of a standard studio is 13 points.

The point charts are irrelevant to the purchase. If I buy SSR -- Then a studio at SSR is 13 points and a studio at RIV is 17 points.
If I buy at RIV, then the studio at SSR is 13 points and a studio at RIV is 17 points.
No matter, which resort I purchase, the studio at RIV is going to cost more points than the studio at SSR.
Just like a room at Grand Floridian is going to be more expensive than a room at All Star Sports.
It's not like I can buy SSR, and use their point chart for when I want to stay at RIV.

You also have to consider the dues on those points. RIV dues per point are high, and you will need more points - that MUST be considered as the OP pointed out, the MF costs pretty quickly outweigh the one time cost per point you pay for the contract.

Yes, dues are part of the cost, and a definite consideration. But future dues aren't easy to predict and tend to converge over time. THe newest resorts almost always start with high dues, but then don't increase much. While the older resorts, after a period of stability, start to see bigger dues increases.

Example, last year, OKW increased about 5%, while RIV increased 0.01%.

Spreadsheets are your friend - it's not that difficult once you dive in.

Should also note in response to those who think you should just rent points; the cost per point to rent ALSO goes up over time.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

No.... Because you don't have to use the RIV points at Riviera.

If you buy direct SSR points and want to stay at RIV, the cost of standard studio (for the night I'm looking at) is 17 points.
If you buy direct RIV points and want to stay at RIV, then the cost of a standard studio is 17 points.
If you buy direct SSR and want to stay at SSR, then the cost of a standard studio is 13 points.
If you buy direct RIV and want to stay at SSR, then the cost of a standard studio is 13 points.

This only works because you used SSR as the example. Pick any other resort, and you're out of luck. OP travels in October, meaning she's going to be USING her points on her home point chart because 7 month availability is going to be jack.

You can't buy Riviera points based on the Boardwalk points chart because you ain't never getting into Boardwalk at 7 months.

 

[havoc315]

Animal Kingdom Lodge to Epcot by bus is about 17 minutes.

That's simply not true. You have to get from your room to the bus stop, then you have to wait for the bus, etc.

Not like I've never been on a Disney bus before. I can state from experience that I absolutely prefer monorails, walking and skyliners to the buses. I can absolutely state from experience that most of the time, monorails, walking and skyliners are much faster than taking the bus. (and much much more comfortable).

From Riviera, I can get from my room to the DHS or Epcot turnstiles in about 15-20 minutes. From a monorail resort, I can get from my room to the Magic Kingdom turnstile in about 15-20 minutes.

From a bus resort, it takes 15-20 minutes for me to get from my room to the bus stop, until the time a bus arrives.
Oh... and TTC to Epcot is about 15 minutes. So no idea where you're getting 42 minutes. If you're including the time it takes to get to the TTC... then you also need to include the time at Animal Kingdom that it takes to get to the bus stop.

Grand Floridan to Epcot by monorail is about 42 minutes.

 

[Madame]

How often are RIV standard view available? Going forward as more resale points are added to RIV it’s going to get harder and harder and I could have sworn RIV standard was difficult to get at 7 mos….

 

[matt and beth]

I’d scrap RIV off the list because of restrictions.

Poly or GF is the resort for you.

The upfront buy in costs can be regained when you get tired of it and want to sell. Unlike other timeshares. That’s the trade of.

 

[havoc315]

This only works because you used SSR as the example. Pick any other resort, and you're out of luck. OP travels in October, meaning she's going to be USING her points on her home point chart because 7 month availability is going to be jack.

You can't buy Riviera points based on the Boardwalk points chart because you ain't never getting into Boardwalk at 7 months.

Huh? It's true of ANY resort. OP travels October-March. I've gotten plenty of 7 month availability in that time frame. I've even booked BWV at 7 months in that time frame.

But ok, let's do BWV --

Summer rack rate at BWV is about $595 per night. Riviera is $700 per night.

So yes, Riviera is more expensive than BWV. Whether you are paying with points or cash, RIV is more expensive than BWV. Just like Grand Floridian is more expensive than All Star Sports.

Which is why -- Ultimately, buy where you want to stay. Saying, "well.. this resort is a better point chart" -- All you are really saying it, "this resort is cheaper." --- And price absolutely should be a factor.
But it's not like "all else is equal except price" -- Just like Grand Floridian and All Star Sports are not equal -- Grand Floridian, AKV, Riviera, Saratoga Springs, etc -- Are not equal. There are objective and subjective differences. Some may fortunately prefer them cheaper resorts. But they are ultimately cheaper for a reason (smaller rooms, less desirable location, etc).

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Ultimately, buy where you want to stay.

If "where you want to stay" is the cheaper resorts because that's what your budget allows, which is the case here, then this is the same as buying based on points chart.

 

[DL1WDW2]

I keep returning to see the progress… and thought of another thing to ponder.
First, I should be honest and say I recommended renting but have never rented.
Second I wanted to stress the future cost of the maintnenance fees and the point charts every year But I always travel for NYE week and expect them to be higher.
I wanted to recommend BLT but my only reason was because I really love my home resort.
And finally , the love increases because I know some day I will have to limit my travels. Knowing my family can take me to BLT and just let me watch out the window is Priceless to me.
When I get off the elevator at BLT , thereis a view everywhere surrounding me Morning Noon and Night . I don’t worry about room location for all those obvious reasons . I just worry about availability .
You really should consider BLT and Poly is my second suggestion because the rooms are bigger
I realize you are planning and thinking about today but your DVC has many years included .
I hope this helps.
Good luck