Thank you everyone for your thoughtful and insightful responses. I spent the past few days crunching numbers (which I haven't done since college and that was more than a decade ago), going over the pros and cons and reflecting on many of the points discussed in this thread. I was happy to hear that "walking" a reservation was overstated to me and using points at 7 months at WDW or Aulani shouldn't be a problem, so long as I am diligent in booking. I am also concerned about the rate at which maintenance fees are climbing, but think overall it should mirror closer to the rate of inflation as time progresses (maybe I'm being optimistic).
After much consideration, my wife and I have decided to give it DVC a shot with Grand Californian being our home resort. As much as I would love to buy a resale contract elsewhere at half the price, I want to ensure that I have the best possible odds of staying there and typically book within that 11-7 month window.
For anyone interested in my thought process, here's some of the things that helped sway our decision:
1. We love VGC. The pools, the food, the lobby, gym, everything. I honestly would not want to do a Disneyland trip staying anywhere else; even more so after having a kid. We would also certainly be content with just doing a "resort" stay, spending time in downtown Disney and watching the fireworks from outside the park, etc. Right now, we travel during low crowd times, however, when our kids get to grade school, we know we will have to travel during busier times and that makes owning at VGC worth paying the premium price for that 11 month booking window.
2. We can afford it: Leisure travel is a huge part of our relationship and how we decompress from the stresses of work. I view it as, this is money we would be spending anyways, so why not pre-pay up front and allow ourselves to stay in larger/nicer accommodations for a fraction of the cost? With our family growing, shelling out $1333+ (listed rate for mid-week September at GC) for a 1-bedroom just isn't an option. Heck, even $400+ for a studio is pretty steep. If we weren't paying for the DVC contract outright, DVC would not be an option for us.
3. Travel habits: My wife and I gave this a lot of thought and truly believe that our travel habits will not change for at least the next 17 years; at least in terms of frequency. I hope to pass on my love for Disney to my kids (as I did to my wife) and believe Disneyland will always be a staple trip for our family (as well as Hawaii) with the occasional (~every 2-4 years) trips to WDW. I think the months we travel may change as our kids get older, but I don't see the amount of trips we take declining.
4. Perceived low-risk factor: Yes VGC is darn expensive at $190-$200 a point, but it is also the only DVC at DLR. If the City of Anaheim continues to limit the amount of timeshare units, I believe that effectively protects the value for those who own there since Disney cannot flood the market by adding additional DVC units/resorts. We could also sell down the line, should our travel habits change. Even If the value per point declines, I would be fine with taking a loss, since that money would have gone towards hotels over the same period of time and we will have experienced priceless memories while we owned it.
5. We will save money: I won't go into the many different scenarios and calculations that I jotted down on paper, but according to a few different variables (frequency of trips, types of rooms, length of stays, whether we have points left over to sell, etc.) it will take us anywhere from 15-25 years to break even; maybe shorter. This will put us at anywhere from 49-59 years old. Lord willing, we will still be traveling and reaping the benefits of our DVC for the remaining years till 2060.
We are excited to give this a try and truly believe that it has the potential to save us a fair amount of money (or at worse, we'd spend the exact same amount of money but stay in a nicer resort/room). Thank you again everyone for your advice and I hope to share future experiences with you all!
-James
After much consideration, my wife and I have decided to give it DVC a shot with Grand Californian being our home resort. As much as I would love to buy a resale contract elsewhere at half the price, I want to ensure that I have the best possible odds of staying there and typically book within that 11-7 month window.
For anyone interested in my thought process, here's some of the things that helped sway our decision:
1. We love VGC. The pools, the food, the lobby, gym, everything. I honestly would not want to do a Disneyland trip staying anywhere else; even more so after having a kid. We would also certainly be content with just doing a "resort" stay, spending time in downtown Disney and watching the fireworks from outside the park, etc. Right now, we travel during low crowd times, however, when our kids get to grade school, we know we will have to travel during busier times and that makes owning at VGC worth paying the premium price for that 11 month booking window.
2. We can afford it: Leisure travel is a huge part of our relationship and how we decompress from the stresses of work. I view it as, this is money we would be spending anyways, so why not pre-pay up front and allow ourselves to stay in larger/nicer accommodations for a fraction of the cost? With our family growing, shelling out $1333+ (listed rate for mid-week September at GC) for a 1-bedroom just isn't an option. Heck, even $400+ for a studio is pretty steep. If we weren't paying for the DVC contract outright, DVC would not be an option for us.
3. Travel habits: My wife and I gave this a lot of thought and truly believe that our travel habits will not change for at least the next 17 years; at least in terms of frequency. I hope to pass on my love for Disney to my kids (as I did to my wife) and believe Disneyland will always be a staple trip for our family (as well as Hawaii) with the occasional (~every 2-4 years) trips to WDW. I think the months we travel may change as our kids get older, but I don't see the amount of trips we take declining.
4. Perceived low-risk factor: Yes VGC is darn expensive at $190-$200 a point, but it is also the only DVC at DLR. If the City of Anaheim continues to limit the amount of timeshare units, I believe that effectively protects the value for those who own there since Disney cannot flood the market by adding additional DVC units/resorts. We could also sell down the line, should our travel habits change. Even If the value per point declines, I would be fine with taking a loss, since that money would have gone towards hotels over the same period of time and we will have experienced priceless memories while we owned it.
5. We will save money: I won't go into the many different scenarios and calculations that I jotted down on paper, but according to a few different variables (frequency of trips, types of rooms, length of stays, whether we have points left over to sell, etc.) it will take us anywhere from 15-25 years to break even; maybe shorter. This will put us at anywhere from 49-59 years old. Lord willing, we will still be traveling and reaping the benefits of our DVC for the remaining years till 2060.
We are excited to give this a try and truly believe that it has the potential to save us a fair amount of money (or at worse, we'd spend the exact same amount of money but stay in a nicer resort/room). Thank you again everyone for your advice and I hope to share future experiences with you all!
-James
