Posted Wait Times are Greatly Exaggerated at Night

[mickeyluv'r]

1. This has been going of for years.
2. A byproduct of FP+ is the more guests are leaving once their 3FP are done.
3. Posted times are (or were) off at other times of day as well.
4. OP doesn't include a description of the weather in her post- afternoon storms are common this time of year. Folks leave in droves during/after a storm.

Back about 2006, we were in AK over Easter. EE brand new. Park super packed. FP ran out by 1:30pm. We almost left the park ourselves, but instead saw FotLK. When the show let out (maybe 3pm?), AK was EMPTY. At the time, we suspected/concluded that no available FP = folks leaving. Weather was not a factor that day, as rain also often clears guests.*

When new FP+ hit the scene, we saw the same - more or less. When FP+ was limited to 3 FP+ period, the effect was stunning - especially in MK. Many guests go to Epcot for the dining, so the effect is less dramatic in that park. Many consider HS and AK to be 3/4 day parks, so the biggest impact is MK. After dark, crowd drop off was stunning.

Truly, I think this is not good for WDW long term. People who only go once a year, or every other year are doing less attractions than they used to ride. Maybe WDW will turn things around for their guest experience. I hope so, but from where I stand, things don't look so great. New Fantasyland didn't live up to the hype.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

It might also be due to people having reserved FP+ but deciding not to use them and not cancelling them. Could be those wait times are determined via computer and if x amount are FP then the computer has no way of knowing the people left if they don't cancel. Just a thought.

Oh no....PLEASE don't tell me FP+ no show fees are next on the WDW horizon!

 

[anniemae]

sneaky sneaks!

 

[elaine amj]

There are about a half dozen apps/websites dedicated to Disney wait times, and it's no secret the official one is the least accurate.

Josh used to display actual wait times, but Disney shut down the feed. That day made me a sad panda. Just knowing there are two internal Disney data streams (Posted and Actual) is pretty eye-opening.

I used Josh's wait time app over Christmas week and am sad to say that Disney's app was more accurate. Twice we chose to follow his "actual" time and enter the lines (at BTMR and Little Mermaid) and both times we got stuck in MUCH longer than anticipated wait times - Disney's times were pretty spot on for those two rides. After that, we gave up on following his "actual time". I was pretty bummed as usually Easywdw right about everything.

 

[Babe the Blue Ox]

1. This has been going of for years.
2. A byproduct of FP+ is the more guests are leaving once their 3FP are done.
3. Posted times are (or were) off at other times of day as well.
4. OP doesn't include a description of the weather in her post- afternoon storms are common this time of year. Folks leave in droves during/after a storm.

The weather was nice on some days and rained on others. My observations were taken over the week of 5/30 - 6/6. Posted times may be off during the day, but I can always count on them being about 4 times the actual wait later into the evening. I agree that this has been going on for years and listed it as my #1 tip in the "Late Night Tips" thread a couple of years ago.

The most interesting thing to me was that MK seemed much less busy on a day that had opened at 8 am. I believe that the morning/afternoon was really busy and guests eventually got tired of it all and headed out. We arrived at about 8:30 pm and found bumper to bumper traffic leaving the parking lot.

Here's what we did in one evening between 8:30 and midnight:

Jungle Cruise
Pirates (10 minutes wait, which was our longest of the evening)
Splash Mtn
Big Thunder
Haunted Mansion
7 Dwarfs (5 minute wait right after Wishes). Posted wait was 65 minutes.
Pooh
Teacups
Speedway
Space Mtn 4x in just over 30 minutes

We also watched Wishes from the Carousel area of Fantasyland which was fantastic.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

Careful if you criticize Josh, he doesn't seem to take kindly to it. I've raised his ire more than once myself.

I find experience to be the best judge. The great part is, knowledge I've gleaned from waiting in WDW queues benefits me every time I get in a line. I almost unconsciously make a mental note of how long the line is, how fast it is moving, and quickly decide if the wait is worthwhile.

Then again, given a choice between two or more lines- I somehow always line up behind the clueless folks.

 

[BuzzinDownToDisney]

Josh used to display actual wait times, but Disney shut down the feed. That day made me a sad panda. Just knowing there are two internal Disney data streams (Posted and Actual) is pretty eye-opening.

Touring Plans still posts actual vs posted based on user feedback. I find they're pretty accurate. kinda funny, I just checked it (totally normal to do from 1200 miles away, right) and of all the rides, shows and M&Gs at the MK there is exactly 1 ride that actual and posted match, Dumbo.

 

[PRINCESS VIJA]

So what apps are the best for times? Free apps preferably!

 

[TheyCallMeStacey]

I'd be interested to know the preferred app for wait times too!

 

[jtowntoflorida]

I used Josh's wait time app over Christmas week and am sad to say that Disney's app was more accurate. Twice we chose to follow his "actual" time and enter the lines (at BTMR and Little Mermaid) and both times we got stuck in MUCH longer than anticipated wait times - Disney's times were pretty spot on for those two rides. After that, we gave up on following his "actual time". I was pretty bummed as usually Easywdw right about everything.

The data that was displayed was Disney's data, so it wasn't that he was wrong, it was that Disney's actual wait times were off. And this couldn't have been this past Christmas, as the feed was already turned off by then.

 

[hedberg1661]

It's to guide you away from the attractions and toward the gift shops. Even though the shops stay open at least an hour after the park closes, guests are more likely to stop in and browse if the park isn't "closed".

I totally agree. It is all about driving you to the places where they can suck the pennies out of your pockets.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

The most interesting thing to me was that MK seemed much less busy on a day that had opened at 8 am. I believe that the morning/afternoon was really busy and guests eventually got tired of it all and headed out. We arrived at about 8:30 pm and found bumper to bumper traffic leaving the parking lot..

We noticed this as well. Years ago, EMH parks were more crowded, but then all the guides told guests to avoid EMH, and they did! I agree summer heat drains folks' energy. Then again, we saw the same in winter, huge crowd drop offs even on warm nights.

I've also posted for years that late hours surpass RD- I think you and I are alone Shh! - but new WDW seems to have increased the benefit.

We have stacks of paper FP we never used- because when we came back to use them, the queue was empty. My experience totally refutes an ENTIRE group of DISers who say late FP usage was a big problem. It's never been an issue for us!

If the queue for Pan was short - wow! That's always been the odd 2am exception!

Are you like us??!?! Our 2nd favorite thing in WDW is ENTERING MK about 9pm (on a 3am night)...when the masses EXIT. On Main St, we're salmon. Back by Space, we're royalty!

My all time favorite thing in WDW- run up the FP queue of Space Mtn late at night when it is empty!

 

[BudgieMama]

Rather than join the crush to leave after Wishes, we decided to hit another ride on BTMR- 25 minute posted wait, walked straight on.

We were absolutely worn out that day, having attempted rope drop (driver took us to the wrong park, so we missed it, but we weren't there much after 9am). We'd had a break mid-afternoon, but had come back for BOG and the fireworks. If we'd have had more energy, it would have been the perfect time for rides. We're planning on scheduling a lazy day/late arrival days at MK next time and making the most of that time! It's so magical in the dark too (in most places... some are a little dark for my taste, as my vision isn't great!)

 

[Babe the Blue Ox]

My all time favorite thing in WDW- run up the FP queue of Space Mtn late at night when it is empty!

It took us 9 minutes to enter, ride and exit Space. 4 total rides in the last half hour that night.

Our best results were TSMM 4 times in an hour, which we've done several times. I don't believe this can be done in the morning, no matter how early you arrive. Your trigger hand does get tired though.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

TSMM 4 times- impressive!

My all time high was BTMMR 14+ times in a row. We stopped counting after 14, but likely topped 20. If nobody was in our row, CM's told us crazies to stay put. We might have done something else, but the group became fast-friends, and the CM's egged everyone to stay. It became a party.

Spoiled us forever. Since then, 60+min. waits for BTMRR seem like a bad joke.

Actually, waiting an hour for any ride now seems like a bad joke. We made a rare exception for Gringotts. (once - then we got smarter!)

 

[baseballnut]

We discovered that MK clears out after Wishes -- and that DD4 gets a chipper second wind at 10 p.m.! We've been on many rides walk-on or stay-on and now we plan to spend most of our time at MK after 7 p.m. (By taking a nap and long break midday of course). Wasn't aware TSMM was like that late at night as well; good to know.

 

[Babe the Blue Ox]

We discovered that MK clears out after Wishes -- and that DD4 gets a chipper second wind at 10 p.m.! We've been on many rides walk-on or stay-on and now we plan to spend most of our time at MK after 7 p.m. (By taking a nap and long break midday of course). Wasn't aware TSMM was like that late at night as well; good to know.

What they do at TSMM is close off all of the inside line area including the area by the Potato Head. The short line then spills out into the courtyard and they put up a 70 minute wait time. Most guest see this, shake heir heads and leave.

If you're brave enough to get in line (or know this secret) you'll find that the line goes straight to the area where you pick up the glasses then up the stairs. 15 minute wait on average.

The very best time of the day to ride Toy Story is during th early showing of Fantasmic. After about 4 rides, you'll still have plenty of time to grab some snacks and head over to the "hassle free" late show where you can just stroll in, sit down and watch.

 

[Ceryssa]

Wow! We have one late evening planed in MK on our upcoming trip (not including MVMCP). We only have one other (half) day to really do any of MK, so this is great news for me. I'll plan on us sleeping in and taking advantage of this!

 

[baseballnut]

Thanks so much for the tip! Wow. We usually plan for mornings at HS with EMH so we can ride TSMM a few times before the regular crowd shuffles in.

We never wait more than 20 minutes so this has made my day!!! Thanks again!

What they do at TSMM is close off all of the inside line area including the area by the Potato Head. The short line then spills out into the courtyard and they put up a 70 minute wait time. Most guest see this, shake heir heads and leave.

If you're brave enough to get in line (or know this secret) you'll find that the line goes straight to the area where you pick up the glasses then up the stairs. 15 minute wait on average.

The very best time of the day to ride Toy Story is during th early showing of Fantasmic. After about 4 rides, you'll still have plenty of time to grab some snacks and head over to the "hassle free" late show where you can just stroll in, sit down and watch.

 

[Parker Clan]

I'm excited to read this, the first time in 4 years we are going to *try* & do EMH at MK one night we are there in August. And I have to admit, I'm one of the guests that would be turned away by the posted wait times. One time last August we did choose to wait in line for TSMM in the evening even though the posted wait time was 60 mins, it ended up being a half hour. But that same night the Disney app posted wait times for RnR & ToT for 10 mins.. Foolish us, we ran across the park to see both were 110 mins. Oops we walked all the way back to TSMM. Now reading this, I bet the app was right and the wait was more like 10 mins.