Possible proof of Commercial renting of confirmed reservations

[TheDailyMoo]

In theory the dump would be even greater and you’re ONLY seeing what came to market after all the waitlists filled, right?

Honestly when I first started seeing the influx of openings I stayed on pretty much for the next few hours non stop refreshing sometimes rapid fire and seeing rooms taken off line by what I would assume to be the waitlist scanner. I'm not sure how many people at this point were stalking those dates so I don't think the rooms were going to users booking manually. In fact if you go look now there are still many rooms left even at the "fancier/more desirable" resorts whereas I'm telling you it was bare bones for the last three+ months. Just as an example there are 6 singular nights open in February for xxxxx. when there was nary an opening for as long as I've been checking. I may make a separate post with my observations about stalking a specific time period for months on end. Again...the DVC booking process is fascinating when you're staring at it ad nauseum. I may actually be on the booking page more than actual commercial renters!

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[Sandisw]

Honestly when I first started seeing the influx of openings I stayed on pretty much for the next few hours non stop refreshing sometimes rapid fire and seeing rooms taken off line by what I would assume to be the waitlist scanner. I'm not sure how many people at this point were stalking those dates so I don't think the rooms were going to users booking manually. In fact if you go look now there are still many rooms left even at the "fancier/more desirable" resorts whereas I'm telling you it was bare bones for the last three+ months. Just as an example there are 6 singular nights open in February for xxxxx. when there was nary an opening for as long as I've been checking. I may make a separate post with my observations about stalking a specific time period for months on end. Again...the DVC booking process is fascinating when you're staring at it ad nauseum. I may actually be on the booking page more than actual commercial renters!

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Just a reminder…you can not share specific availability, which includes resort,
Month, dates, etc.

So, you can certainly discuss trends you are seeing…but please do not mention the resorts.

My other comment is that I have seen this type of thing happen before as someone who stalks regularly…meaning nothing open and then a few different room choices are there

 

[MommaKetch]

What shocks me is are the ones still listed less than 30 days. Lots of little bits and scraps. Do those rent? What happens if they don’t? Go into holding and book something else?

I wonder about this too!

 

[MillauFr]

Honestly. I may actually be on the booking page more than actual commercial renters!

They don't have people doing the bookings.

 

[kgou]

I wouldn't doubt this happens but this was an anomaly of a day. No way every member that was thinking of doing that did it all on the same day by coincidence or otherwise. No this was thousands of points spread out randomly. And if it was Disney then why not Boardwalk (which did just appear before but as a singleton day). Boardwalk is probably the bread and butter of commercial spec renters. Now I was looking again today...all day...like I've done for months (don't judge my insanity or how much I ignore my actual job to do this!) and there was quite a bit of movement again but nothing like yesterday. Of course I can't say as fact it was what I assume it to be...but to me I very much believe I was seeing the spec rental dump from a major player. It is what it is we know it happens for better or worse but to actually see it in action was fascinating.

I have also been stalking for what I think are similar dates as you ...and I had somewhat given up checking as frequently as I had been. Nothing was available. Your post prompted me to look and see and I am amazed by the number of rooms/resorts with openings now. I can only imagine how much more was open when you caught this initially. Very interesting!!

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I have also been stalking for what I think are similar dates as you ...and I had somewhat given up checking as frequently as I had been. Nothing was available. Your post prompted me to look and see and I am amazed by the number of rooms/resorts with openings now. I can only imagine how much more was open when you caught this initially. Very interesting!!

Yeah it almost looked like it was only a few days passed the 7 month mark. Every resort besides BWV and BR had openings. To be fair only VGF had a weeklong block available and that lasted for about an hour. Lots gone now. I'll still be on it and update if I see anything else of note.

 

[RichVIII]

Also starting to think about a “bump and run” of the professionals. Hold onto as long as you can to see if you get a taker, as it gets closer, bump to another resort/night(s) and try to rent that. Rinse. Repeat.

 

[McCrae]

On points DVD owns or breakage?

Points DVC owns. They could easily have made reservations that they couldn’t sell.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Points DVC owns. They could easily have made reservations that they couldn’t sell.

That does make sense.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Points DVC owns. They could easily have made reservations that they couldn’t sell.

I would put my money on a commercial renter before Disney. These rooms were released over the course of a few hours. I doubt there's a guy at DVC highlighting reservations and then deleting them one at a time. Also if it was Disney they would have at least SOME Boardwalk points. Nothing appeared. Same with Boulder Ridge. BLT no standards. I'm trying to figure out if that means they
a) would keep those because they are easier to rent out or have rented them out already
or
b) maybe commercial renters (I am assuming that's who it was, it's not fact) aren't always getting the low cost rooms? Maybe it is regular members who grab up the cheapest rooms either to use or rent through a third party. That could explain the dearth of low cost rooms.

 

[Sandisw]

I would put my money on a commercial renter before Disney. These rooms were released over the course of a few hours. I doubt there's a guy at DVC highlighting reservations and then deleting them one at a time. Also if it was Disney they would have at least SOME Boardwalk points. Nothing appeared. Same with Boulder Ridge. BLT no standards. I'm trying to figure out if that means they
a) would keep those because they are easier to rent out or have rented them out already
or
b) maybe commercial renters (I am assuming that's who it was, it's not fact) aren't always getting the low cost rooms? Maybe it is regular members who grab up the cheapest rooms either to use or rent through a third party. That could explain the dearth of low cost rooms.

While I think it certainly is interesting to see rooms at multiple resorts show up for a similar time period and very well could be someone who rents a lot, it could also be Disney as well. Perfect storm?

And, maybe some of the resorts that never showed back up had waitlists that picked them up?

Certainly interesting to see how quickly things can change. I see it a lot because I am always stalking for multiple trips.

Just this week, I saw a lot of movement for my January trip!

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

And, maybe some of the resorts that never showed back up had waitlists that picked them up?

Certainly interesting to see how quickly things can change. I see it a lot because I am always stalking for multiple trips.

Just this week, I saw a lot of movement for my January trip!

This makes a lot of sense to me. You could imagine that both point misers (like myself) and potential renters would be waitlisting BWV the most. I own BCV and VGF at WDW, I really like VGF, but I typically book it at the 7-11m mark and then waitlist BCV and BWV once we hit the 7m mark— sometimes they are like half as many points. I had VGF booked before they announced Jan MM dates and this week my BCV WL cleared and my BWV WL disappeared.

 

[kilik64]

 

[VGCgroupie]

View attachment 911717

Literally me in the new Aulani listings thread.

 

[Disfamwa]

My guess is that they do cancel and then have to try for something else.

I am actually surprised to see so many last minute ones sometimes.

If you’re a commercial renter and have a large number of points, holding points aren’t a concern because you can swap holding points into other confirmed reservations you already hold as soon you are in the 60 day window of those reservations.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

If you’re a commercial renter and have a large number of points, holding points aren’t a concern because you can swap holding points into other confirmed reservations you already hold as soon you are in the 60 day window of those reservations.

Is it 60? I thought it was 30…but also, is that an official rule or a concession?

 

[Sandisw]

Is it 60? I thought it was 30…but also, is that an official rule or a concession?

Right now, the system is set up that modifications will be seen as new and so if you do have holding points, you can modify a reservation you have already made in that same UY once you hit the 60 day mark and it will use holding points and free up any current UY points.

So, it can help the average owner. In the case of a commercial renter though, I don’t see it being a huge advantage because holding points do expire at the end of the UY and it would mean canceling out trips they have booked so they would lose the potential to rent those in the first place.

 

[Disfamwa]

Right now, the system is set up that modifications will be seen as new and so if you do have holding points, you can modify a reservation you have already made in that same UY once you hit the 60 day mark and it will use holding points and free up any current UY points.

So, it can help the average owner. In the case of a commercial renter though, I don’t see it being a huge advantage because holding points do expire at the end of the UY and it would mean canceling out trips they have booked so they would lose the potential to rent those in the first place.

It’s perhaps not a huge advantage, but commercial renters are more likely to have many future reservations that they could swap their holding points into—they can cancel a confirmed reservation within 30 days that didn’t get rented, put the points into holding and between 60-31 days swap them into a different reservation that has already been rented out, and then bank/reuse the points they swapped.

 

[Sandisw]

It’s perhaps not a huge advantage, but commercial renters are more likely to have many future reservations that they could swap their holding points into—they can cancel a confirmed reservation within 30 days that didn’t get rented, put the points into holding and between 60-31 days swap them into a different reservation that has already been rented out, and then bank/reuse the points they swapped.

Sure, but my point was that they are still up against a UY and at some point there could me more holding points than new reservations to swap into them.

IMO, it seems counterproductive for a commercial renter to have so many last minute nights left in play…I just think more of those might actually be from your regular owners who were stuck.