Some of this probably has to do with the Caribbean Beach refurb......rooms are reduced.....and demand is high. Another issue may be the costs of all the construction going on at WDW..........also time of year as others have said and the final issue could be/is probably just inflation (at Disney

). Its hard to predict discounts too. The late fall discounts have just not been there. The only data that can be used here is the fact that many rooms are and have been booked.
My take is it will only get more challenging. With ToyStory Land set for opening next summer and Star Wars Land the summer after...........onsite room pricing and availability will probably go up big time. My wife and I have booked for late August 2018 and the pricing is much more than we've ever paid before. What we've done is book what we feel we can afford.....that's it....which brings our vacation to 4 nights instead of our usual 6 nights. Now if we somehow get a discount

....that's fantastic........we may adjust our days.....but we're not counting on it.
We've been to WDW 9 times in the past 4 years so this reduction isn't so terrible for us....we're fortunate.
(note we plan a year in advance and save like maniacs to go this often) However if you don't do WDW as often............my advice, for what it's worth

, would be to book out as far as you can if you must be onsite. That way there's time to save. I'd also say book what you're
"willing" to pay for at
"rack rate". The one thing I've seen recently is so many upset by the
"lack" of discounts available both to the public and AP holders. Many folks now expect discounts and are livid when they can't get one. Unfortunately those discounts are to fill rooms.........and when rooms are filled there is no need for discounts. Now some will argue that Disney is just holding rooms back.......but I have never seen any actual evidence that this is the case.
The reality is there's a ton of new stuff coming to WDW (and
Disneyland for that matter) and plenty of demand..........with limited onsite room supply.............therefore prices are going up.
Doug
