Pondering: Percentage of Reservations Cancelled?

[bwvBound]

As I just cancelled a Beach Club reservation for January, I wondered, "What overall percentage of DVC reservations are cancelled?"

My other points-system timeshare sees ~30% of all reservations cancelled. That is a healthy amount of turnover and shuffling in the reservation process. I wonder what the rate is for DVC reservations? Personally, I'd say that I cancel almost half of my DVC reservations but I'm likely not in the majority of ownership in that respect.

Any guesses? I'd guess somewhere in the 20%'ish range.

 

[drusba]

I would actually guess in the 40% or even higher range. That is because there are huge numbers of cancellations when the 7 month window opens as members cancel their home resort to book another

 

[com_op_2000]

I would have to say I am in the 95% category.
I book my HR then change out to another resort @95% of the time.

 

[disneynutz]

Good question, only Disney knows the answer.

Bill

 

[WilsonFlyer]

I would actually guess in the 40% or even higher range. That is because there are huge numbers of cancellations when the 7 month window opens as members cancel their home resort to book another

I admit that I read the question and voted what I wanted it to say instead of what it actually said. I voted 0-20% and thought I was being generous, but you make a very valid point. The question/poll wasn't about cancelled vacations, it was about cancelled reservations. I'd like to change my vote to 21-40%, please.

 

[Minniesgal]

I would have to say I am in the 95% category.
I book my HR then change out to another resort @95% of the time.

Whereas I'm in the 5%, I'm a home resort traveller unless the unforeseen happens.

Wonder where this averages out.

 

[DougEMG]

I nearly always book my entire trip at BWV at 11 months and then at 7 months switch some of the nights to other resorts.

Just this week I dropped 5 nights off my APR/MAY reservation at BWV to add those nights at Universal and at 7 months will try and switch some nights to BLT/POLY or BCV.

 

[DenLo]

I would actually guess in the 40% or even higher range. That is because there are huge numbers of cancellations when the 7 month window opens as members cancel their home resort to book another

I really don't know the percentage, but a lot members do book and then switch at the 7 month mark. So this figure sounds good to me.

Good question, only Disney knows the answer.

Bill

So true and they will never let us know either. I would love to know it.

 

[disneynutz]

Based on info from various sources, we don't know what DVC/Disney does with room inventory. I know that revenue accounting controls the inventory but we don't know how many rooms go to Disney at 60 days, how many are oos for maintenance, how many due to refurbishment, how many sent to guest experience for resort moves.

Bill

 

[WilsonFlyer]

You would think that a lot of this information would be disclosed under FL timeshare law but alas, it is not, apparently.

Disney owns a large percentage of points at all the resorts. I understand that's by design, but they certainly don't hold a majority anywhere. Not even close, I don't think. The problem is that their block is the only one that is organized. Again, both by design and by lack of organization on our part.

If one had the money to toss at the lawyers, I suspect we could get most of this information, and a lot more we'd probably like and not like to see also, but we all know that's never going to happen. DVD knows this also, of course.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

I suspect this statistic is resort specific and cannot be meaningfully examined club-wide. First, the resorts vary significantly in size. Several cancelled reservations at a smaller resort will yield a higher percentage than at a larger resort. Second, I suspect home owner loyalty varies and 7-month mark cancellations are higher for some resorts than others. VGF, for example, likely has fewer cancellations and higher retention at the 7-month mark. Moreover, individuals planning trips to to Los Angeles/Anaheim or Hawaii are likely set on their destination and less likely to switch vacation location.

 

[bwvBound]

Thanks for the replies. I'm impressed by the higher estimates. Oh, true -- I hadn't factored switching at the 7month window. Good points!

As for resort-specific or system-wide, I'm using system-wide as I'm familiar with the numbers (and strategies) of my other point-system timeshare. Shuffling reservations increases chances of waitlist success or snagging a (relatively) 'late' reservation (at 7 months or at 30 days).

 

[bwvBound]

I think you can change your vote? I see a [Change my vote] button below the poll -- do you?

I admit that I read the question and voted what I wanted it to say instead of what it actually said. I voted 0-20% and thought I was being generous, but you make a very valid point. The question/poll wasn't about cancelled vacations, it was about cancelled reservations. I'd like to change my vote to 21-40%, please.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

I think you can change your vote? I see a [Change my vote] button below the poll -- do you?

I did.

 

[bobbiwoz]

We have 7 home resorts and so, I book what I want and very rarely clange at 7 months, but at 7 months I may add on to the original booking because some of our resort holdings are minimal. I do not own at the Poly, but did change a 5 night VWL stay to a Poly studio stay this past August. We liked it so much that we may find ourselves doing that more often in the future. For us, it will still be in the 0-20% range.

 

[com_op_2000]

...Wonder where this averages out.

50%