Poly1 v (?) Poly 2

[havoc315]

Right now and for the foreseeable future the only resort you lose out on is RR which is at best an overpriced moderate.

Lol. Interesting perspective.
My perspective is— it’s by far the nicest resort at Disney. And it’s the only Epcot DVC you can buy now that will still be around when your newborn graduates from high school.

 

[Sandisw]

Right now and for the foreseeable future the only resort you lose out on is RR which is at best an overpriced moderate.

You are certainly entitled to that opinion, but plenty of us think it is one of the best...and I think within 2 years, there will be two more resorts restricted.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Right now and for the foreseeable future the only resort you lose out on is RR which is at best an overpriced moderate.

RR an over priced moderate? Have you actually stayed there and seen the rooms? I think it’s great.

 

[StoweFoSho]

I think some of the most compelling arguments for there not to be a separate association are that:

1. There will still be 42 years left on the original Poly condo association should the tower open in 2024. This is roughly the same amount of time remaining on VGF condo association.

2. There’s more precedence for add-ons to be the same condo association than there is for it to be different. Ex. SSR + Treehouses, AKL + Kidani.

3. The Poly tower does for PVB what Big Pine Key rooms did for VGF with expanding room type and inventory. VGF needed any rooms, PVB needs something other than studios and bungalows. It can also help balance the “bungalow” glut of points.

4. It would probably be preferable to not have one half of a resort have Riviera-style resale restrictions and one half not.

5. Dues would likely be lower in a combined association. Riviera debuted with much higher dues than legacy associations and a 200-250 room Poly Tower Association would probably be similarly higher priced compared to sharing costs with PVB’s existing 380 rooms.

Obviously there are arguments on the other side as well. WL expansion was a new association, VGF expansion was a conversion of existing hotel rooms and the tower is new construction, Riviera is selling fine with restrictions to both new and existing owners, etc.

Since we’re speculating, the odds are that we’ll all be wrong about the result or the motivations for the result.

What I do know is that PVB is an amazing part of the resort with a great location and biggest dvc studios at WDW. I love staying there, but it’s also a good long-term deal on the resale market as SAP. It also typically commands a higher price on the rental market. None of these things are going to change with addition of the tower.

I’m happy to walk to the TTC from my longhouse to get to either monorail before the tower owners.

 

[Royal Consort]

Right now and for the foreseeable future the only resort you lose out on is RR which is at best an overpriced moderate.

Funny you say that, Disney have actually created a specific term for highly priced moderates. They call them 'Deluxe'.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I think some of the most compelling arguments for there not to be a separate association are that:

1. There will still be 42 years left on the original Poly condo association should the tower open in 2024. This is roughly the same amount of time remaining on VGF condo association.

2. There’s more precedence for add-ons to be the same condo association than there is for it to be different. Ex. SSR + Treehouses, AKL + Kidani.

3. The Poly tower does for PVB what Big Pine Key rooms did for VGF with expanding room type and inventory. VGF needed any rooms, PVB needs something other than studios and bungalows. It can also help balance the “bungalow” glut of points.

4. It would probably be preferable to not have one half of a resort have Riviera-style resale restrictions and one half not.

5. Dues would likely be lower in a combined association. Riviera debuted with much higher dues than legacy associations and a 200-250 room Poly Tower Association would probably be similarly higher priced compared to sharing costs with PVB’s existing 380 rooms.

Obviously there are arguments on the other side as well. WL expansion was a new association, VGF expansion was a conversion of existing hotel rooms and the tower is new construction, Riviera is selling fine with restrictions to both new and existing owners, etc.

Since we’re speculating, the odds are that we’ll all be wrong about the result or the motivations for the result.

What I do know is that PVB is an amazing part of the resort with a great location and biggest dvc studios at WDW. I love staying there, but it’s also a good long-term deal on the resale market as SAP. It also typically commands a higher price on the rental market. None of these things are going to change with addition of the tower.

I’m happy to walk to the TTC from my longhouse to get to either monorail before the tower owners.

I don’t know about the rental market, but there are reasons to believe that DVC will price Poly2 competitively, using the same VGF2 strategy, which will exert downward pressure on the Poly1 resale price. Your argument re precedence for add ons is invalid because resale restrictions didn’t exist at the time.

I don’t think DVC cares about either lowering dues, or balancing out the studio excess at Poly1, since the new tower will probably have a wide range of accommodations. And I don’t think it would be one half of a resort, since a separate association would pretty much make it an entirely new resort in its own right.

I would bet all major DVC construction projects going forward will have resale restrictions.

 

[Nabas]

Right now and for the foreseeable future the only resort you lose out on is RR which is at best an overpriced moderate.

RIV certainly is much better than a Moderate (and we've stayed at them all) but it's not worth the required points per night.

IMO, BCV, BWV, CCV, BRV, and AKV all offer better values considering the number of points per night. RIV should not be charging as much as Monorail DVCs.

 

[Sandisw]

RIV certainly is much better than a Moderate (and we've stayed at them all) but it's not worth the required points per night.

IMO, BCV, BWV, CCV, BRV, and AKV all offer better values considering the number of points per night. RIV should not be charging as much as Monorail DVCs.

Expect it is still subjective when you determine value. While I would spend less points to stay at any of the resorts you listed, they don’t offer me more value because I don’t enjoy them as much.

I definitely think it’s worth the points in comparison to the MK resorts for those that want easier access to Epcot and HS.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Expect it is still subjective when you determine value. While I would spend less points to stay at any of the resorts you listed, they don’t offer me more value because I don’t enjoy them as much.

I definitely think it’s worth the points in comparison to the MK resorts for those that want easier access to Epcot and HS.

I agree. And we love the one bedrooms.

 

[thank_the_phoenicians88]

What’s interesting about the discussion on whether or not PVB2 will be a new association or part of the same is that in all likelihood, the amenities of the resort will be open to all who stay at Polynesian. I can’t see them creating separate amenities given how compact the resort is. So the only thing that makes PVB2 more alluring over PVB1 are the newer rooms and the availability for 1, 2, and likely 3 bedrooms.

I would venture a guess that most families in the DVC program are in it for the studios. So if DVC makes it a new association, they will have to craft a convincing argument for what PVB2 is superior to PVB1. Of course it’s newer and comes with a variety of room types, but again that will come at a price point the average family can’t/won’t afford. And what’s nice about PVB1 is that the ample supply of studios comes with the convenience that you never have to fight for rooms at the 11 month mark. My poor brother owns at copper creek and walks his reservation a month out for December. Too stressful, no thanks! From a size perspective, you can’t beat PVB1. A lot of pros and cons, for sure! Regardless, Disney stands to make a killing on this new property. What an amazing business model. Have the guests pay for your hotel and maintenance dues haha. And in 40-50 years, take it all back free and clear. Genius move.

 

[StoweFoSho]

I don’t know about the rental market, but there are reasons to believe that DVC will price Poly2 competitively, using the same VGF2 strategy, which will exert downward pressure on the Poly1 resale price. Your argument re precedence for add ons is invalid because resale restrictions didn’t exist at the time.

Except that VGF + Resort Studios is another example of precedence after the creation of resale restrictions. Also, if the associations are different, then there would be less downward pressure on PVB because they are different products at the same location, like BRV and CCV. PVB's resale price is more affected if the associations are the same- which is what we saw with VGF.

Poly Tower will sell. There's no doubt about that. The downward pressure would be to all resale contracts as those waiting for three years buy at the tower opening and stall out the market for a month or so. But that's a limited-time thing that happens with every new resort opening. It's going to happen when the Disneyland Tower opens as well. The DVC buyers will buy up a bunch of points in a short period of time there, and there will be fewer buyers on the resale market, driving prices down just a little. Once the excitement wears off, the market will correct itself.

 

[DisneyVibesNYC]

Hi all... currently trying to purchase a monorail resale. BLT is first choice - POLY is 2nd... Question: If I buy a resale to Poly1 now - I will have access to Studio's and Bungalows (and no access to Riviera - not worried because we have a blue card for our other resort)... BUT - is it possible that if I buy Poly1 now at resale that I may not be able to use those points at the new Poly Tower (Poly2)? In other words, it'll be like Riviera? If so - what an awful way to treat OBVIOUSLY loyal guests who are straight-up COMMITTING to spending SIGNIFICANT $$ to the company. Just sayin'.... (Should I use more capital letters?)

I hear it's just like the Riviera. It's a huge investment, so make sure you read the fine print!

 

[DVCsloth]

I wouldn't buy Polynesian resale now and expect to use it at the new towers. If you bought Poly resale before the restrictions 2106, I think? You should be able to book at 7 months.
The new resort will most likely be a new association with shared amenities IMO.

 

[Straulin]

For now, resale still gets you a lot of options. Who knows what the future holds but obviously DVD has decided that they want to make the product they sell more attractive then buying on the secondary market.

For some, like me, it’s worth the extra money to go direct and have access to all. For others, it’s not.

At least there are different options for people and while resale might not get someone all of it, it does come with some savings.

We went resale on our first (just closed this year) contract at BCV. Any other contracts we get will probably be direct at Poly, BLT, or VGF. Our first stay at VGF is in October. I doubt we will add-on too quickly, so with incentives I expect Poly 2 will get us.

My thought is they will be separate associations as the is they route DVD seems to be heading. VGF we're preexisting rooms that were converted vs new construction.

 

[StoweFoSho]

This is a luxury vacation product. Everyone is going to buy what they feel like is the best deal for them; and that does not mean that it is the actual best deal. All of our situations are different, so some people are going to insist that Poly Tower is the better deal for them, while others will go with PVB. And all of them will sell or resell at the market price.

Ex. Buying Poly to stay at OKW is actually cheaper over the longterm than buying OKW or OKWe. Yet there are thousands of OKW points that sell every month for the home-resort advantage. But if you feel like you need the booking window for a grand villa or the week after Christmas, then you're probably buying OKW. Another Ex. Staying in a Studio or 2Bd are much more point economical than a 1Bd or 3Bd, but those rooms get booked-up.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Has anyone thought of the unintended consequences of Resale restrictions on the future of DVC? Will it really mean that a resale owner can only book at their home resort?? Or will there be companies that spring up that will help people trade their points at one resort for one at another--again causing a third party to profit on Disney's product. Is that exactly why the resale restrictions were supposedly implemented in the first place, so a third party does not profit from a Disney product. Do not get me wrong, I firmly believe the resale restriction are here to stay, but all the ramifications are yet to be seen.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Except that VGF + Resort Studios is another example of precedence after the creation of resale restrictions. Also, if the associations are different, then there would be less downward pressure on PVB because they are different products at the same location, like BRV and CCV. PVB's resale price is more affected if the associations are the same- which is what we saw with VGF.

Poly Tower will sell. There's no doubt about that. The downward pressure would be to all resale contracts as those waiting for three years buy at the tower opening and stall out the market for a month or so. But that's a limited-time thing that happens with every new resort opening. It's going to happen when the Disneyland Tower opens as well. The DVC buyers will buy up a bunch of points in a short period of time there, and there will be fewer buyers on the resale market, driving prices down just a little. Once the excitement wears off, the market will correct itself.

No, I don’t think so. If Poly2 is a separate association, there will be buyers who were considering Poly1 who will buy Poly2 instead, including current Poly owners who want to add on. With promotions, marketing, incentives, plus a beautiful new resort that’s neither kitschy nor outdated, the pool of buyers for Poly1 is bound to shrink. Less demand equals lower prices.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Has anyone thought of the unintended consequences of Resale restrictions on the future of DVC? Will it really mean that a resale owner can only book at their home resort?? Or will there be companies that spring up that will help people trade their points at one resort for one at another--again causing a third party to profit on Disney's product. Is that exactly why the resale restrictions were supposedly implemented in the first place, so a third party does not profit from a Disney product. Do not get me wrong, I firmly believe the resale restriction are here to stay, but all the ramifications are yet to be seen.

Those third parties already exist. They’re common, and help DVC owners rent their points to anyone interested, including DVC members. And yes, in 40-50 years, I think resale owners will only be able to book their home resort. That will be the new normal.

 

[Nursemanit]

The worst reason to purchase DVC is " what will happen in 40-50 years" first of all, no one knows. Worry about the next 5-10 years.

Second, Only purchase at a resort you love. If that resort is not VGF or RR then don't purchase direct.

Right now, direct VGF is the only one that will not instantly depreciate 28%-38%. Some of the DVC direct prices like BLT are $100 a point more than resale value. Get an Excel spreadsheet ( pre-made ones are available) and do some cold impartial math. If your purchase does not save you money in less than 10 years - skip it. BLT direct on a 10-year timeframe is 3975(e) + 1062(m) which is over 5k for a week in an LV studio. The cash price is 4,750. So using a mid-priced week at BLT you will not save a dime buying direct for the first 10 years.

Now resale 2400(e) + 1062(m) so 3500 for a week - is a good deal. That's $1,500 per week vs rack rates. or 15k in the first 10 years. Now does that occasional use of the TOTW lounge sound like something you would pay an extra $1500 for each trip? Because that is the only thing you lose if you purchase BLT resale and like the BLT. Don't let Disney distract you with "lounges" that are not guaranteed.

And don't worry about dining and merch "discounts" since the Disney Visa gets you similar discounts. The same for AP - they are not worth it for a 1 week's vacation.

And don't have FOMO over unbuilt magical resorts, first of all, they can end up like Reflexions and never happen. But more realistically, they will be like RR, a built-to-price, Marriott-style, box-like tower hotel, that lacks the charm of the original quality themed resorts.

Even if you like the new resort, if you buy resale you can sell it, historically speaking, without taking that 35% loss and buy the new resort so you are not closing your options.

 

[TraderStitch]

Don't go hating on Riviera because it isn't your cup of tea now lol. Some of use don't enjoy the charm of 1/4 mile walks or internal buses to get to our rooms lol.

The boutique-ness of it is the main selling point.