Poly.. sell now or wait?

[Adg0428]

I’m a Poly owner and have been considering selling. Would you sell now or wait until more info comes about Poly2?

 

[DVC Doctor]

what more info do you need....selling should not be about what comes next, it becomes WHY do you want or need to sell. The market is red hot now for Poly and prices will soften (drop in price) if there is a recession as more sellers will hit the market

 

[Adg0428]

what more info do you need....selling should not be about what comes next, it becomes WHY do you want or need to sell. The market is red hot now for Poly and prices will soften (drop in price) if there is a recession as more sellers will hit the market

My thought was if the new portion is part of the same association that the market price would go up

 

[CaptainAmerica]

My thought was if the new portion is part of the same association that the market price would go up

I doubt the market price will not go up. Nobody is going to pay $170 resale when they can get it from Disney for $185.

 

[DVCsloth]

Obviously, no one knows for sure. But I don't see the new Polynesian being part of the same association. I think it will share amenities with Poly 1, but it will be a new association.
I don't think I would sell based on what happens with the new resort. I'm keeping my VGF points and waiting to see how the new addition affects my booking at 11 months. If it makes it more difficult to get my room choice, I will consider selling then.

 

[DVC Doctor]

My thought was if the new portion is part of the same association that the market price would go up

You are free to do what you think best, but LOTS of people have failed to time the market and if the selling price TODAY is acceptable to you, and for most people, that means they can sell for more then they paid, then that is generally the best situation.

Just look at history and you can easily see that the market is HOT for sellers right now and it was mega cold back in 2008-2012 where the prices dropped like a rock and SSR was going for $50pp.

Assuming there is some particular reason you want to sell (perhaps you can disclose that here), it is better to grab your $$$ now, than wait for the price to go up or even down in the future.

 

[Paul Stupin]

My thought was if the new portion is part of the same association that the market price would go up

Maybe, but I think it’s more likely that the new tower will not be part of the same association, in which case Poly1 resale will go down. I’d sell now and get out while the getting‘s good!

 

[Adg0428]

You are free to do what you think best, but LOTS of people have failed to time the market and if the selling price TODAY is acceptable to you, and for most people, that means they can sell for more then they paid, then that is generally the best situation.

Just look at history and you can easily see that the market is HOT for sellers right now and it was mega cold back in 2008-2012 where the prices dropped like a rock and SSR was going for $50pp.

Assuming there is some particular reason you want to sell (perhaps you can disclose that here), it is better to grab your $$$ now, than wait for the price to go up or even down in the future.

We haven’t owned long. About a year. Right after we closed, my husband got a promotion and now we’re only 45 minutes from Disney and his schedule is less predictable to be able to plan out far in advance. We also found that we love riviera and since we’re resale we can’t book there. I’d rather sell now and just rent points for last minute stays I think.

 

[jodifla]

We haven’t owned long. About a year. Right after we closed, my husband got a promotion and now we’re only 45 minutes from Disney and his schedule is less predictable to be able to plan out far in advance. We also found that we love riviera and since we’re resale we can’t book there. I’d rather sell now and just rent points for last minute stays I think.

You aren't thinking this through. You won't be able to rent points for last minute stays.

 

[DVCsloth]

We just did a cash reservation for Guardians preview. Stayed at OKW using Florida Resident discount, loved the resort but it was still pretty expensive. I booked about a month out. There was not much available that close.

 

[Adg0428]

You aren't thinking this through. You won't be able to rent points for last minute stays.

I mean rent last minute reservations, not points.

 

[Nabas]

I’m a Poly owner and have been considering selling. Would you sell now or wait until more info comes about Poly2?

This all depends on why you are selling. If you need the money now, then sell now.

We have been watching the Poly for months. We might buy there. IMO, in about 12 months, this has quickly switched from a seller's market to a buyer's market. Resale inventories are growing at most resorts. Most listings at "market price" simply are not selling.

Interest rates are up and there's growing concerns of a major recession. After the 2008 recession, DVC resale prices plummeted.

According to DVC Resale Market, prices peaked last summer and have started to retreat:



When VGF2 was first offered for sale at $207, VGF resale prices (green line) fell:



Signs are pointing towards a weaker resale market.

If you need the money, then sell now. If you don't, then rent the points at $20/point and wait a few years.

 

[jodifla]

The issue is thinking you can rent last minute points. Even in a recession, it wasn't that easy, particularly if you wanted to stay in a certain place.

 

[Adg0428]

The issue is thinking you can rent last minute points. Even in a recession, it wasn't that easy, particularly if you wanted to stay in a certain place.

This all depends on why you are selling. If you need the money now, then sell now.

We have been watching the Poly for months. We might buy there. IMO, in about 12 months, this has quickly switched from a seller's market to a buyer's market. Resale inventories are growing at most resorts. Most listings at "market price" simply are not selling.

Interest rates are up and there's growing concerns of a major recession. After the 2008 recession, DVC resale prices plummeted.

According to DVC Resale Market, prices peaked last summer and have started to retreat:

View attachment 671013

When VGF2 was first offered for sale at $207, VGF resale prices (green line) fell:

View attachment 671014

Signs are pointing towards a weaker resale market.

If you need the money, then sell now. If you don't, then rent the points at $20/point and wait a few years.

Thank you, that’s very helpful!

 

[RoseGold]

I’d rather sell now and just rent points for last minute stays I think.

Well, that's your answer.

VGF2 undercut the VGF1 pricing because of how low VGF2 priced. There's people even on these boards who are waiting to sell VGF1 because of the add-on.

It's a good time to sell Poly, I'd do it now.

I'd guess there will be a firesale on something sold out after VGF2 sells out in a couple years, maybe BLT. That might be a good pick for you to get direct points.

 

[sethschroeder]

My thought was if the new portion is part of the same association that the market price would go up

You will unlikely know that until VGF sells out or POLY is right around the corner from being sold. Both of those are a ways out at this point so much so you would need to guess what the larger DVC market does first.

Even if its in the same resort people looking to buy may want a discount based on what they saw with the direct offering on VGF. The resale buyers likely would know how VGF dropped in price when the new tower went on sale.

 

[Tech4444]

I doubt the market price will not go up. Nobody is going to pay $170 resale when they can get it from Disney for $185.

You’re not going to get 150 points for $185 a point.

 

[Jgc014]

Based on what you said, I would sell now. It is a relatively strong market still, and yes, the market could go up in the future, but it could also go down, which I think is personally likely at least shorter term. Plus there is value having money now as opposed to one, two years down the road if that is time timeframe you are thinking. I think most people agree DVC is best booked as early as possible, and it seems like this is currently tough for you with your husband's job. And if Riveria is your favorite resort, as you know, Poly resale isn't going to get you in. I wouldn't personally want to be holding a DVC contact that locks me out of one of my favorite resorts.

That being said, I do think the Poly resale market is fairly saturated right now, so if you want to sell sooner rather than later, I think you'll need to price fairly competitively otherwise your contract is likely to get lost in a sea of Poly.

And I totally disagree about finding last minute reservations - I see them all the time. You may not be able to get the exact resort you want on the exact day you want, but if you are somewhat flexible, you will have plenty of options. Also, since you live locally, there is a good opportunity to jump when you see the right reservation for you.

The one thing I will say is I don't think the last minute strategy will always get you the best deal. I think people often assume if you are booking last minute, then you can get better deals, which can be the case if you are lucky, or especially if willing to book a day or two before a reservation starts. However, often times I think confirmed reservations occurring in the near future can be just as expensive as advanced ones as people are looking for reservations, and there is not much bookable via points last minute.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

You’re not going to get 150 points for $185 a point.

Who said anything about 150 points?

 

[Judique]

I’m a Poly owner and have been considering selling. Would you sell now or wait until more info comes about Poly2?

In your case I would buy a contract where you want to stay and I would help pay for it by renting out your Poly points until you see a Poly price that is acceptable to you. This obviously depends on your financial situation which I'm not asking about.

Not sure how many points you bought, but if it's possible, I would only buy enough direct points to satisfy a few onsite visits - I'm assuming you would want stuff like Midnite Madness, weekends, or other events.

I'm assuming you don't want to go for a week at a time, living 45 minutes away.