Poly.. sell now or wait?

[Tech4444]

Who said anything about 150 points?

You are just throwing the $185 number out there like it’s the going rate. So saying wouldnt buy resale when you can get it for $185 direct is just not accurate. Most people buy less then 200 it seems based on RIV average point purchase. In a couple years when MSRP is a little higher the average price will be closer to $200, so a $170 resale price isn’t that far off.

 

[wnielsen1]

You are just throwing the $185 number out there like it’s the going rate. So saying wouldnt buy resale when you can get it for $185 direct is just not accurate. Most people buy less then 200 it seems based on RIV average point purchase. In a couple years when MSRP is a little higher the average price will be closer to $200, so a $170 resale price isn’t that far off.

Nobody is getting $170 for resale Poly1 if direct Poly2 is $200 regardless of whether Poly2 is in a new association. The only possible exception is it is a real small contract.

 

[Tech4444]

Nobody is getting $170 for resale Poly1 if direct Poly2 is $200 regardless of whether Poly2 is in a new association. The only possible exception is it is a real small contract.

VGF gets over $170 a point.

 

[wnielsen1]

VGF gets over $170 a point.

And what was the resale price of VGF before VGF2? The price on VGF resale is falling and will continue to do so. Some fortunate sellers got some buyers to overpay as the market readjusts. That's not something I would plan on if I was selling.

 

[Tech4444]

And what was the resale price of VGF before VGF2? The price on VGF resale is falling and will continue to do so. Some fortunate sellers got some buyers to overpay as the market readjusts. That's not something I would plan on if I was selling.

Are you surprised that resale adjusted to bellow what direct is selling for? It was impossible for it to stay the same. Poly is already settled down to what is more sustainable. Its by no means recession proof, but all contracts will drop during recessions.

 

[Straulin]

When poly 2 opens Disney will offer it for a lower price than direct Poly 1 is currently priced. If the same association, there would be no doubt that the resale price will drop in comparison to the direct.

If they are separate associations, I still dont see it increasing Poly 1 resale prices as there will be more competition direct at the new association.

Everything tends to point to an economic downturn soon. So I would expect today's prices to be as high as they are going to be for a few years.

 

[Nabas]

Based on history, Poly Tower will be priced at whatever VGF2 and RIV are priced at the time.

Since those currently are at $207 per point plus incentives, my guess is Poly Tower will open at around $215-$220 plus incentives in a couple of years.