Poly effect on resale market?

[Bajorek]

My wife and I just started looking at resale DVC at AKV because we feel its a good fit for us. Since doing research, we have found the recently the resale value is at an all time high (go figure!). Now with the announcement of the DVC at the Poly...we are thinking of waiting a year to see how the Poly effects the resale market. Siting basic supply and demand...are we correct in thinking demand will go down for AKV, thus driving down resale? Would love feedback from folks that have experience with resale DVC.

 

[McCrae]

IMO I don't think this will have any impact on resale prices.

Biggest factors are the economy and what Disney charges for direct.

Can only see resale prices continue to go up for the next few years.

 

[Minniesgal]

I think it will be 2016-2017 before Poly has any impact on resale prices if at all.


For the most part I think AKV and Poly buyers will be different people I wouldn't hold off.

I'm not convinced resale prices are at an all time high, they are higher than last year yes but saying this is an all time high is a big statement. AKV direct points are close to sold out so Poly sales will not impact direct demand for AKV.

I'm not sure many people other than true Poly lovers would decide to not buy resale AKV to buy direct Poly instead due to the price difference.

 

[Anthony1971]

DVC (timeshare) is Real Estate (somewhat) but in this catagory.
As real estate prices rise so will DVC but faster if history plays its part-- seems to be doing so.
As real eatate falls DVC will fall faster as we saw and may do the same in the future.
Real eastate is at the very start of an upturn to try to predict where it will go is a guess at best.
To say all time high is far from the truth then factor in inflation and DVC rasing prices every year... you could see resale go a lot higher...
In the opposite if real estate turns tomorrow you could see it go a lot lower..
Changes in the program could go either way but very unlikley DVC will make a huge change in the near future to something that works as well as it does for them $$$$

 

[drusba]

Assuming the real estate and timeshare market do not suffer another crash, your assumption is likely incorrect because of what Disney will probably do in the next two years. What can have a real impact (upwards) on resale contracts is what Disney is selling contracts for (it still sells all of the resorts). Before VGF went on sale, and over less than a two year period, Disney implemented a series of price increases for the resorts, so that overall prices from Disney increased about 30% (e.g., BLT from $120 to $160 a point, AKV from $112 to $145, and the other WDW resorts from the $90s to low $100s to $130 each) . The reason Disney did that was to allow it to sell VGF at its current $150 a point level and make people think they are getting a bargain because BLT costs more and other resorts are close to that price. We will probably see the same pattern with Poly. Prices of VGF and other resorts will be hit with a series of increases so that Poly can go on sale in 2015 for something over $200 and people will think they will be getting a bargain because by then VGF will be priced higher (even though most of its purchasers will not have paid that price). There has already been mention of the possibility of an increase before the end of this year. A series of price increases by Disney can, as it has already done in a little over a year, help send resale prices higher.

 

[bcvlover]

I believe that once VGF opens, there will be another price increase....

So if I am right, then expect another $5-$10 increase around Oct. 20.....

this will bring all resale prices up, if it happens (well, except maybe vero

 

[staceymay00]

IMO I don't think this will have any impact on resale prices.

Biggest factors are the economy and what Disney charges for direct.

Can only see resale prices continue to go up for the next few years.

I agree. If you've done your research and feel 100% ready to buy, then go ahead and start making offers now. Resale prices may drop at some point in the future, but I don't think Poly DVC will be the reason. We bought DVC resale about a year before prices really dropped. I could have saved $10 a point if I had waited another year or two, but then I would have had to pay more for equivalent lodging for a couple of trips. Now asking prices are higher than they were when we bought 3.5 years ago. I was completely comfortable with what we paid and had no regrets when prices hit rock bottom.

We stayed at AKV for the first time earlier this year and loved it. My favorite resort before we bought DVC was Poly, but I'd say there is more chance of us adding on AKV resale than buying direct at Poly. Direct prices are too high for my comfort level right now...resale prices are getting too high for me, also! I would add on via resale ASAP if I were currently in the market for more points because I don't see prices falling anytime soon. I don't think they will continue rising at the same rate, either, but I would not wait it out for a year or two hoping for a better price.

Sent from my iPad using DISBoards

 

[DVCcurious]

I will go on record stating that every non-monorail resort will see no effect on their resale price once Poly and GFV resales start popping up. Let me explain:

Currently BLT has the highest resale price point. This is due to the "on the monorail" premium people are willing to pay. If you assume that the demand side will stay consistent (the number of people who "have" to stay at a monorail resort won't change), and that GFV and Poly will increase the supply of monorail resort resales then you could assume that resale prices for BLT will drop.

Now, you should also factor in that there are people (me) who HATE the contemporary/BLT and would never buy there, but who LOVE the Poly and WILL buy the first Resale contract that hits the market. That means that demand from people who would buy Poly/GFV but not BLT will also increase the demand.

So you have supply of resale definitely increasing, and you have demand of resale probably increasing, too. But no one knows how much they will increase.

But all of this doesn't matter. It is all insignificant when considered against the factors that really do matter:

Biggest factors are the economy and what Disney charges for direct.

If the economy tanks resale prices will drop. If the economy booms resale prices will go up. If Disney increases prices 40% for all DVC "classic" properties then resale prices will go up.

 

[DenLo]

Am I missing something? What makes you think that a resale contract for the VGF or the Poly be lower than what someone pays for it? And if it is still a sellers market, you'll end up paying higher closing costs than would buying direct. Because resale closing costs are higher and in seller's market the buyer pays the closing costs. I don't see how you will save any money buying resale for those two resorts for many years to come. Won't supply and demand will have them going for full price which should be lower than the current selling price by then.

 

[Minniesgal]

Am I missing something? What makes you think that a resale contract for the VGF or the Poly be lower than what someone pays for it? And if it is still a sellers market, you'll end up paying higher closing costs than would buying direct. Because resale closing costs are higher and in seller's market the buyer pays the closing costs. I don't see how you will save any money buying resale for those two resorts for many years to come. Won't supply and demand will have them going for full price which should be lower than the current selling price by then.

I don't see anyone paying the same price resale as Disney are charging. Look at BLT hugely popular resort points well sought after but resale prices well below direct. If resale prices were as high as direct wouldn't everyone just buy from Disney.

 

[DenLo]

I don't see anyone paying the same price resale as Disney are charging. Look at BLT hugely popular resort points well sought after but resale prices well below direct. If resale prices were as high as direct wouldn't everyone just buy from Disney.

I think a lot of members purchased BLT in the upper $90s. And many are just recovering the original purchase price now.

VGF (and probably the same will be for the Poly), the point price was not discounted under the asking price. Whereas at BLT the more points you purchased the lower per point cost.

 

[AllieV]

I was wondering if the Polynesian announcement would flood the market with BLT contracts, thus dropping the prices some. As the first monorail DVC, lots of people bought there whether they liked it or not. Grand Floridian is pricey and does not appeal to as many people as those who hold nostalgia for the Polynesian. So anyone hesitant to pull the trigger on GFV or those who grudgingly bought BLT may jump on Poly, offloading BLT contracts in the process. Just my theory.

 

[Soul Brother]

Don't forget, BLT is still the only DVC property that you can walk to MK from.
If you've never done it, it's an absolute blessing when leaving and not having to deal with the massive exodus on the monorail or buses.

I don't see VGF or Poly affecting resale values at BLT. It will still have the best choice of room views at WDW. Now if BLT 2 ever gets built, I could see that possibly having an impact.

 

[Anthony1971]

Don't forget, BLT is still the only DVC property that you can walk to MK from.
If you've never done it, it's an absolute blessing when leaving and not having to deal with the massive exodus on the monorail or buses.

I don't see VGF or Poly affecting resale values at BLT. It will still have the best choice of room views at WDW. Now if BLT 2 ever gets built, I could see that possibly having an impact.

GF and Poly also have a boat that only stops at those two resorts which IMO is better than walking after walking all day at the MK.
As far a room views I agree the top of BLT has a great view but the lower rooms do not. Best view well that is more like what you want to see. BLT is parking lot and side view of MK. GF and POLY is lake and direct view of MK.

There are people who like BLT thise who like GF and those who will like Poly. I am a Poly lover but bought over 10 years ago... but who knows... Stayed at BLT and did not care for it at all and can say it is not the same as staying at CR by far...
More likley at this point in time a new resort will cause resale to go up ad DVC will raise its prices and the real estate market is making a come back... all the makings of the perfect strom but like anything else the opposite can happen is DVC has a flop and the Real eastate market takes a turn.

 

[McCrae]

I was wondering if the Polynesian announcement would flood the market with BLT contracts, thus dropping the prices some. As the first monorail DVC, lots of people bought there whether they liked it or not. Grand Floridian is pricey and does not appeal to as many people as those who hold nostalgia for the Polynesian. So anyone hesitant to pull the trigger on GFV or those who grudgingly bought BLT may jump on Poly, offloading BLT contracts in the process. Just my theory.

I really can't see this happening in large numbers... It doesn't make a huge amount of financial sense.

Like all resorts BLT has a lot of very happy owners who will have no intention of selling.

Lots of people like the idea a Poly DVC, but its not for everyone.

Demand for DVC remains strong for all of the on site resorts.

 

[geraghty]

I was wondering if the Polynesian announcement would flood the market with BLT contracts, thus dropping the prices some. As the first monorail DVC, lots of people bought there whether they liked it or not. Grand Floridian is pricey and does not appeal to as many people as those who hold nostalgia for the Polynesian. So anyone hesitant to pull the trigger on GFV or those who grudgingly bought BLT may jump on Poly, offloading BLT contracts in the process. Just my theory.

BLT was bought by most under $100 pp. It does not make financial sense to unload only BLT points to purchase at the Poly. There will be some at BLT who want to unload to buy at Poly, but no more than those at AK, BC, BW, OKW, SSR or any other DVC resort. I would love to add poly to my portfolio, but selling at $90 to buy at $160 +, does not make sense. I believe BLT will hold value because in comparison it will be cheaper to own due to the lower points chart and the lower mf, plus location.

For many of us, the ability to walk back to your room at the end of the day is priceless. No other resort allows you to walk out your door at 8:45 and make 9:00 rope drop at MK. Plus disney transportation can break down, or the bus/boat you wanted to catch can be full, or you just missed it, or people are slow to load, etc.

 

[JimMIA]

Siting basic supply and demand...are we correct in thinking demand will go down for AKV, thus driving down resale? Would love feedback from folks that have experience with resale DVC.

I think you are right to a degree. The question is whether the effect will be worth the wait.

Poly is not BLT and it's not VGF -- I think Poly is the one resort that a LOT of people have been waiting for. When BLT was announced, many said they were waiting for Poly. When VGF was announced, many said they were waiting for Poly.

So yes, I think there will be a noticeable number of folks selling existing DVC contracts to buy Poly. Whatever effect that has will occur sooner rather than later because those sellers will want the money NOW to purchase Poly before the retail price goes up.

There is also the effect of the "shiny new car" making the former shiny new cars appear less attractive, and supply and demand at individual resorts. OKW, SSR, BWV, AKV, and BLT are large to medium-sized resorts. With more existing contracts, there is naturally going to be more resale inventory available compared to smaller resorts or the resorts which haven't been open long enough for large numbers of owners starting to exit. That micro supply and demand effect will have more impact on prices at those particular resorts than anything Disney does, IMHO.

Right now, I think the resale market is in an unusual situation of having reduced inventory making it a bit of a seller's market and raising price levels . I don't expect that to last long. Don't forget that today's market follows several years of "get-out-at-any-price" mentality caused by the weak economy and many owners being in way over their heads. It's easy to focus on short-term swings, but I'm not sure either of those markets were "normal."

If I had to bet one way or the other, I'd bet on resale prices returning to their former low levels and continuing the gradual slide downward from there.

And, as Drusba correctly points out above, all of this speculation rests on the assumption of the economy not tanking again.

That's a pretty big assumption, and one which large businesses (who study the overall economy and base their decisions on that research) are not making. Instead of assuming growth and good times, big businesses are sitting on huge amounts of cash and cutting rather than investing in the future.