Don't feel too bad about the Polynesian for this year.
Keep in mind that we had 4 major hurricanes down here in this neck of the woods. At least three of them directly impacted people's vacation plans at Disney.
As a result, the rest of the season has been more crowded, as those who cancelled earlier are now coming back to enjoy their previously disrupted plans.
All reports indicate that this year has seen unseasonably high crowds as compared to the previous 3 years.
Given the concern of staffing shortages due to the pending strike, the reported lack of coordinated crowd control at the Polynesian during such events and the attraction of the viewpoint, I be willing to suggest that anyone with a 1st floor lagoon view may be in for a shock with the crowds.
For the ~ $625 you would have paid and the difference you'll be spending on partying, I think you'll have a great time regadless.
I'd rather have access to my own personal balcony than leave things to chance.
And again, on your worst day there you'll still be at Disney. It's win-win from there.