POC - Good Enough yet? / Weekly Update

[Peter Pirate]

Well, 'Pirates' has a been atop the box office listing for six days now, without close competetion, despite one of our esteemed members warnings that odds were 50-50 (at best) that it would/would not beat 'T-3' for the weekend...Hope he didn't bet too much on that.

Further, I believe it was mentioned that the quality of this film was along the lines of, 'the people who want to like it will, everyone else won't'...Please correct me if I'm wrong...

After 6 days atop the charts and pulling in over 78 million, are we to the point of calling this movie a success? Or do the final numbers need to be tabulated? Because IMO, the buzz and reviews surrounding this movie have already made it a success, even if the total numbers still don't add up (although it appears certain they will, doesn't it?).

Whats your take? Success or too early to call? Oscar for Mr. Depp?

 

[KNWVIKING]

This should be an interesting thread. Thanx Pete.

 

[DisneyKidds]

I'll leave my comments about the movie itself until later (hint: at least Bruckheimer isn't debasing a real event this time). People who want to like it will like it; everyone else won't. Mildly strong opening weekend, fifty percent plunge the next week (about average for "big time studio" summer movie), buy yours on DVD before Thanksgiving and then forget it ever existed.

Aaaaarghhh, me matey, me thinks this is the quote you were looking for. I tried to lure our friend to comment again when some of the first reviews came out. I didn't want to really challenge the prognostication until we see if POC has that 50% plunge.

Unfortunately, the title of your thread is just what some opponents will love to build off of. Undoubtedly, some will point out that POC is 'good enough', but that that isn't enough and Disney needs "great", which they don't think Pirates is.

Kind of like Mission:Space. The ride isn't nearly as bad as some thought it would be, yet they still have to tear it down because of other things it could have been.

Oh, well.

 

[rexmundi]

Boxofficemojo estimates that POC cost $180 million to produce and market. It is pushing 80 in the first week, which, given the competition from League and T3, is quite remarkable. It is sure to make back the initial investment. Though I don't think it will hit Nemo-like numbers, it will probably top $200 million DBO. With T3 dropping like a lead dirigible, and little competition from movies opening this weekend, POC may just pull in another $40-50 million in the next seven days.

 

[Peter Pirate]

Mr. Kidds, there were intended to be humor in that thar title so if others don' pick up on it you've now been properly warned, arrrgh!

(If not humor per se, then sarcasam)

 

[*Robin*]

I fianlly just got to see it today. This is the first time in my movie going life that a matinee was FULL...there was a group of girls sitting behind me that were on their 8th viewing.

There was a pleasant mix of male and female, young and old (or middle aged, just a few truly old) and many adults there without children. The only downfall, my ds7 wasn't scared once! (I had prepared him that if it got too bad we would leave, he had been begging to see it) He LOVES scary movies. Toward the middle he yawned a few times. I expected this with such a long movie.

Upon leaving he said he'd see it again in the theater if I was going, but he would rather just buy the dvd so he can skip to the good parts.

If my little demographic is on the money, then I must say Disney hit the mark this time.

 

[OnWithTheShow]

Isnt it often accepted that if a film makes half its cost in 10 days its almost sure to break even?

 

[hopemax]

I think we need to wait a bit longer to see Pirates "legs." Pirates and T3 both had about $78.1 million in the first 7 days. I see Pirates Rotten Tomato rating has dropped to 76%, T3 is at 74%. T3's recent numbers haven't been stellar, so how do we know that Pirates will be?

I admit that Pirates had a stronger opening than I expected, but I am still concerned about repeat value and wonder how front-loaded the movie was, due to attraction fans.

 

[crusader]

It's got legs. This weekend coming up has Bad Boys 2 being released which I am not sure how to rate. One thing I have heard is a complaint about the amount of sequels being shown this summer which makes this movie all the more interesting. I personally really liked it.

 

[April76]

Everyone I've talked to has liked it a lot or loved it --- many of them have seen it at least twice (personally, I'm working on 3x and wouldn't mind more).

This is a "must buy" for my dvd collection and since the theater run will be over well before the holidays I hope they come out with it in time for "gift-giving".

I have been very disappointed with so many of the "hyped" movies lately that this was a real pleasure to see and to tell people about.

 

[Another Voice]

I completely stand behind my quote.

Of course the people who went to the theater liked it – they were the ones who looked up the time the movie was playing and got in the car and drove to the theater and waited in line to chuck over nine bucks for a ticket than another eight bucks for a cup of ice/water/soda (in that order) and a Kleenex full of popcorn and then put up with the sticky seats to watch ten minutes of commercials before the fifteen minutes of trailers before the movie started.

Most people don't go through all of that unless they really want to see a movie.

The real question how many people will show up this weekend.

Nemo is a hit because people who saw it told all their friends and neighbors about the movie, and all those friends and neighbors are going to the theater and telling their friends, etc. The audience fell roughly 30% each weekend. Films like Hulk and Charlie's Angels and X-Men and the other blockbusters –people who wanted to see those movies saw them the first weekend. All of them. Audiences for those movies plunged 50% or more every weekend.

It's still open where Pirates sits. The marketing people I trust tell me that the film is getting so-so word of mouth, certainly not the "you must see this" of Nemo. And yes, people around these boards are passionately in love with the movie but that means nothing for the general public. Go over to a Star Trek board and read what those fans said about their last movie. There's no difference.

With a string of blockbusters lined up weekend after weekend, I still think it's likely Pirates will see a 50% drop. Yes, the film did open better than expected (but the opening of League simply floored everyone) – and it's weekend take is at the low end of the summer so far. Pirates has the exact same numbers at Terminator 3 and no one is calling that movie a success.

On the financial side, Pirates cost in excess of $180 million to make and roughly $75 million to market (based on the grapevine). T3 cost a little more to make and much less to market (plus they have the guaranteed Arnold international box office which will be double whatever Pirates foreign & domestic take). That's an awful lot of dough to have to bring in (and the costs just growing – you should see the interest rate Disney has to pay these days…).

And besides halving the box office take to approximate what Disney's share of the bounty – take a good look at the credits of the movie. Bruckheimer owns a giant piece of the film and all things associated. You might just want to half the box office again before you start adding money to Disney's profit statement. Pixar's not the only ones who get to squeeze Disney around the blockbusters.

We'll see what this weekend brings. But I wouldn't expect the fourth chicken finger to reappear any time soon.


By the way, Pearl Harbor had $75 million its opening weekend and we all know the exactly what that did to Disney's financials.

 

[Planogirl]

And I stand by my statement that Johnny Depp can carry this movie. Time will tell if this is enough.

 

[ErikdaRed]

Actually ST:Nemesis got horrible word of mouth on Star Trek boards, which is why it did horribly.

 

[HB2K]

Well, 'Pirates' has a been atop the box office listing for six days now

Way too soon to call this a smashing success given it's costs. Come back to me in three - four weeks and we'll see how it's holding up.

It's got legs

Nemo has legs. Pirates might, but it's too soon to state that. Come back and talk to me in the timeframe listed above to truely see how it holds up.

Also don't count out Bad Boys II. Who thought Bruce Almighty would knock off Matrix?

AV - Well said

 

[rwodonnell]

The grapevine may say one thing, but boxofficemojo.com says it was $140M/40M for a total of $180M. I have no way of saying how authoritative that is, but I have seen a lot of people use it as a source. The numbers I have seen there for other movies seem to line up with numbers I have seen elsewhere in the press, so I have always thought it a reasonable source.

There is no way it will hold up the way Nemo has, but that will not mean it is some sort of failure. Nemo is pretty unusual in it's grip, it seems to me. I think if Pirates makes it to $200M, it will be a pretty big success, considering domestic box office is only the start.

 

[DisneyFanGuy]

I haven't seen Pirates yet, (Next weekend), but my little local theater said that it's been the busiest movie all year for them, after Nemo. They are still selling out day after day, and are very surprised by how well it's doing.

Nemo is, by the way, still playing there also to about 1/2 full crowds. Nice.

 

[KNWVIKING]

*** ". And yes, people around these boards are passionately in love with the movie but that means nothing for the general public. " ***

Does the same opinion apply for every other topic discussed on this board ?

 

[scooby-the-doo]

Originally posted by Another Voice
Of course the people who went to the theater liked it – they were the ones who looked up the time the movie was playing and got in the car and drove to the theater and waited in line to chuck over nine bucks for a ticket than another eight bucks for a cup of ice/water/soda (in that order) and a Kleenex full of popcorn and then put up with the sticky seats to watch ten minutes of commercials before the fifteen minutes of trailers before the movie started.

***?!

Pretentious much?

 

[crusader]

I guess we should have saved that 20 bucks for a more rewarding form of quality entertainment like a peep joint or video arcade.

Or is it that Americans have yet to learn how to shy away from buying movie tickets and patronizing the motion picture industry which keeps producing substandard forms of entertainment which only an artist's eye can detect. Let's face it, we are easily entertained and will pay to see an actor despite a film. We all must be idiots!

Of course we should stop spending our pennies on the more finer things in life like: sporting events, imported beer, filet mignon and SUV's. Ahhh...........the land of opportune pleasures.............who can deny its' happiness.

Afterall it is much more tasteful to go to the opera on a regular basis or sit through all those quality independent films like Full Frontal and that latest little picture directed by John Malcovich with all the hanged dogs.

 

[CasualObserver]

AV - I think you've got a bit of a chip on your shoulder here.

Of course the people who went to the theater liked it – they were the ones who looked up the time the movie was playing and got in the car and drove to the theater and waited in line to chuck over nine bucks for a ticket than another eight bucks for a cup of ice/water/soda (in that order) and a Kleenex full of popcorn and then put up with the sticky seats to watch ten minutes of commercials before the fifteen minutes of trailers before the movie started.

So exactly how are we to decide if we like it or not if we don't look up the movie time, drive to the theater, wait in line, etc. I don't recall seeing a service where they come to my house, install a full-size screen theater, serve me popcorn, let me watch the film all by myself, then move on to my neighbors house. If they have it in L.A., then I'm moving there. Otherwise, how else?

Movie Reviews online or in the papers?
Rotten Tomatos?


If your point was that it is a self-selected sample group, that's true. Most people who go to a film will say they like it. That doesn't account for 100% of the sample. I went to see "The Chester Story" an indie film made here in Wilmington. It had Terry Hatcher in it so it wasn't complete unknowns. It sucked big time. Typical indie - I'm going to wait until the last five minutes and then pull all these story lines together at once even though you could see what was going to happen in Act I - type of film. So, just because I checked out the times, drove to the theater, bought popcorn, watched the trailers, I still wanted to stick pencils in my eyes to stay awake.


I think Pirates is a really fun flick. Nothing wrong with a really fun flick. Just because I had to go to the theater doesn't discount my review.

Casual Observer