Please help me think this thru

[Dyefrog]

Since this mantra of "buy where you want to stay", gets posted a dozen times a day, I would like to throw this theory out for debate.

If you expect to primarily book the hardest rooms to get which typically are the cheapest, i.e. studios, then definitely buy where you want to stay. You will need the 11 month head start at most resorts. But if you do a fair amount of upgraded accommodations which are typically available at most of the resorts at the 7 month window, i.e. 2 bedrooms and up, it's not so important. Those upgraded villas aren't so hard to come by at 7 months so your 11 month advantage is kind of wasted for those.

 

[DVCSunDevil]

I have been researching DVC for a long time.
We have rented points several times, staying at AKV, BCV, HHI (several times) and PVB.
We most recently took our 1st trip alone since the kids were born, both now in college.

We are finally in the position to purchase, and hubby is realizing Disney is indeed fun with or without kids.

My husband is a teacher, so we will be traveling between December-July (mostly Feb-July). I see some studio stays for just the two of us. But, 1 or 2 beds if we bring the kids (and someday spouses).

I have been looking extensively at resale but would like a blue card if it is not a crazy price difference. I want the option to stay at future resorts, discounts, etc.
Planning on starting with 125 points, with a possible 125 point add on later (one for each kid).

so- now the decision. Considering either direct SSR or resale for BLT. I would be fine staying at SSR, but would likely mostly be looking to change at 7 months. I like BLT though studios are small.

WWYD? Buy direct now and add on resale later? Or buy resale at a resort we like more and add on direct later (RIV is not an option).
TIA and sorry for being so long+winded

There are a lot of good opinions being shared and I agree with many of them. IMO, buy where you want to stay...period, end of story. There are many threads on these boards discussing how hard it is to book at 7 months (heck, even booking at 11 months depending on the time of year). So make sure you are completely happy staying where you buy, because you may end up having to stay there more often than you think.

When deciding resale versus direct, keep in mind that any perks are not guaranteed and can be taken away at any point. We bought into DVC last year and saved $100/pt versus direct. Do you have any idea how many t-shirts and table service meals we would need to purchase to break even on the $20K we saved? The answer is A LOT...we would never break even (average of $6 saved on a t-shirt, $10 on a sweatshirt, and for us it is about $8 or so on a table service meal because alcohol is not discounted). If you are planning to go to WDW several times and will take advantage of the AP discount then that is a different story. Finally, there are no guarantees on future resorts...and Reflections was cancelled so who knows when the next one will pop up. And you can always rent your points and then use that $$ to rent Riviera points from another owner if you really want to stay there or any new resort. Everyone would "like a blue card"...even I would like one. But you have to peel away the layers of the blue card to see if it is even something that makes sense for you. It didn't make sense for us, but it might for you.

 

[MomOTwins]

There are a lot of good opinions being shared and I agree with many of them. IMO, buy where you want to stay...period, end of story. There are many threads on these boards discussing how hard it is to book at 7 months (heck, even booking at 11 months depending on the time of year). So make sure you are completely happy staying where you buy, because you may end up having to stay there more often than you think.

When deciding resale versus direct, keep in mind that any perks are not guaranteed and can be taken away at any point. We bought into DVC last year and saved $100/pt versus direct. Do you have any idea how many t-shirts and table service meals we would need to purchase to break even on the $20K we saved? The answer is A LOT...we would never break even (average of $6 saved on a t-shirt, $10 on a sweatshirt, and for us it is about $8 or so on a table service meal because alcohol is not discounted). If you are planning to go to WDW several times and will take advantage of the AP discount then that is a different story. Finally, there are no guarantees on future resorts...and Reflections was cancelled so who knows when the next one will pop up. And you can always rent your points and then use that $$ to rent Riviera points from another owner if you really want to stay there or any new resort. Everyone would "like a blue card"...even I would like one. But you have to peel away the layers of the blue card to see if it is even something that makes sense for you. It didn't make sense for us, but it might for you.

Right, but for OP, sounds like they are saying they choice is not to save $100 on resale vs direct at BLT, it's direct at SSR vs resale BLT for the same-ish price. With that in mind, the discounts are relevant because it is an immediate savings without having to offset any increased initial price.

However, I am with others on this one that I have to recommend BLT in this circumstance. I do think the trend is clear that is only going to get harder and harder to book other resorts at 7 months, and given that, I'd rather have home resort advantage than a blue card.

 

[DVCSunDevil]

Right, but for OP, sounds like they are saying they choice is not to save $100 on resale vs direct at BLT, it's direct at SSR vs resale BLT for the same-ish price. With that in mind, the discounts are relevant because it is an immediate savings without having to offset any increased initial price.

However, I am with others on this one that I have to recommend BLT in this circumstance. I do think the trend is clear that is only going to get harder and harder to book other resorts at 7 months, and given that, I'd rather have home resort advantage than a blue card.

Got it...I think I lost track of the initial question. LOL. I would agree with you. My first rule is to buy where you want to stay. And if direct pricing is pretty close to resale (within, say, $10 per point) then the extra money to get the blue card may make sense.

 

[ldo]

Imho if you got to $20 difference I’d definitely do direct to be able to stay at any new resorts and for blue card. I don’t know of any direct/resale within $10 unless it’s a very small contract.

 

[MomOTwins]

Imho if you got to $20 difference I’d definitely do direct to be able to stay at any new resorts and for blue card. I don’t know of any direct/resale within $10 unless it’s a very small contract.

True, I'd agree with that, and maybe even a little more. For people who have two or three resorts that are equally "where they want to stay" there are probably a lot of situations where you could wind up with very little increased cost for direct at one versus resale at the other. I know we were getting pretty close on prices as between Poly resale (170s) and Riv direct (190s, after incentives) when I bought a couple of weeks ago, and I really love both resorts (although ability to stay at Riv with one-bedrooms was a deciding factor for me). That said, I just didn't get the impression that OP felt equally interested in BLT and SSR.

 

[RoseGold]

OP wants to stay at SSR, wants Blue Card, wants future resorts, and wants the extra year of points from buying direct.

I don't think direct is right for many, but it is here. SSR resale pricing is high enough right now that the differential is worth it for what OP wants. I'm shocked direct hasn't raised both SSR and VGF, actually. This is a case where buying direct needs to happen sooner than later to get the extra year's points. BLT resale is not going anywhere.

 

[ProudMommyof2]

OP here.
We definitely like BLT better. I don’t mind SSR, especially given that the point value for the rooms are great. I was also drawn to the idea of just getting it done (resale feels like a lengthy process when you have finally decided to take the plunge.
But, we talked about it and our last trip (at PVB) cemented that we want to be “in the action”. I would absolutely do Poly if they had 1 BR. I actually worry that because the bungalows are so frequently empty, they may redistribute points and make the studios more points so they can decrease the bungalows.

So, off to look at BLT resale.

 

[KTownRaider]

I actually worry that because the bungalows are so frequently empty, they may redistribute points and make the studios more points so they can decrease the bungalows.

I love the Poly- the theming, restaurants, dole whips, and Trader Sams (open please!), but this thought regarding possible future redistribution of points from the bungalows sat in the back of my mind when I was going through my own purchasing process. Maybe that's my neurosis kicking in. The studio point chart is already on the higher end, and actually not too far off from VGF studios next door. Best of luck on your DVC journey!