Please critique my purchase plan.

[jlnten17]

Ok I am really leaning towards 175 direct with all of your help. Thank you all so much. The DVC salesman suggested I may even be able to rebook our Jan Disneyland trip using points at one of the CA Disney hotels. Would anyone that has a membership and can log on be willing to check our dates for me? We plan to check in Jan 28 and out Feb 2. Right now we have a cash reservation at Disneyland hotel. It seems pretty unlikely to be available but if anything was it would certainly factor into my analysis of cost. I would be curious how many points that would run per night. Thank You again!

 

[jlnten17]

also -- if you buy direct, they might be able to book you the Grand Californian using your points. If your first contract is a direct contract, they can sometimes make inventory available from other sources (e.g., cash inventory) and book it for you using your points.

So if you have a cash reservation at Disneyland and can cancel that hotel reservation -- it might make sense to buy direct and see if they can get you into the Grand Californian. Certainly not guaranteed -- but it's something else to consider.

just noticed we were typing this at the same time. lol

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Your dates wouldn't be available on points at VGC without a DVC guide making things happen. No general availability.

 

[mustinjourney]

just noticed we were typing this at the same time. lol

they can pull stuff out of their own inventory -- so even though nothing is available right now, they CAN still make something happen (within reason).

 

[jlnten17]

I assumed GCV is booked as it is very limited availability from my understanding. But he mentioned we could also use the points to book regular hotel rooms at Disneyland hotel or Paradise Pier. Taking your advice and sending him an email requesting he check our travel dates for availability before we decide on our purchase.

 

[DM3MD]

they can pull stuff out of their own inventory -- so even though nothing is available right now, they CAN still make something happen (within reason).

...especially if there is a $30k sale on the line.

 

[mustinjourney]

I assumed GCV is booked as it is very limited availability from my understanding. But he mentioned we could also use the points to book regular hotel rooms at Disneyland hotel or Paradise Pier. Taking your advice and sending him an email requesting he check our travel dates for availability before we decide on our purchase.

probably don't want to use your points at Disneyland hotel since those rooms typically require a very high amount of points (like 30 or 40 points per night instead of 20).

 

[Wakey]

I never thought I'd be saying this at the end of 2017, but I agree small contracts and those still on sale are almost always worth going direct on nowadays. I think the resale market must have reached a pinnacle, and no signs of the Xmas dip yet, unless of course DVD up their prices again shortly. I would also buy it in 2 50 and 1 75 chunk as if time comes to sell, they will be worth substantially more than a single 175. Well worth the extra 300 (ish) closing.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Ok I am really leaning towards 175 direct with all of your help. Thank you all so much. The DVC salesman suggested I may even be able to rebook our Jan Disneyland trip using points at one of the CA Disney hotels. Would anyone that has a membership and can log on be willing to check our dates for me? We plan to check in Jan 28 and out Feb 2. Right now we have a cash reservation at Disneyland hotel. It seems pretty unlikely to be available but if anything was it would certainly factor into my analysis of cost. I would be curious how many points that would run per night. Thank You again!

Availability at DL hotels isn't online - one just has to call in. However it really isn't the best use of points. If you've gotten a good hotel price - or even at least decent it's probably better to stick with it. VGC has long been sold out and would just be catching a cancellation. DVC does not seem to rent out any inventory there ever so they would not have any in their pool to "magically" pull for you but that's why the guide mentioned the other hotels.

I'm just going to say again - there is money to be saved buying PVB resale even now. To me a $2-3k isn't anything to just be dismissed. So IMO you were on the right track with your initial post. And IMO your being talked into spending more money. You're looking at a relatively common resale amount for PVB - nothing particularly small for there.

 

[ziravan]

Another option since 175 is a reach from your original plan.

Buy a 130 point week 49 guaranteed week standard studio with a Dec UY. (Or a 163 point week 49 Lake View Studio)

Search disboards for guaranteed weeks. There are some great advantages and little downside. Only about 1.5% of Poly contracts are fixed and that’s a popular time.



Weeks 49 and 50 (first two weeks of Dec) are some of DVC’s busiest booking times.

 

[ziravan]

Availability at DL hotels isn't online - one just has to call in. However it really isn't the best use of points. If you've gotten a good hotel price - or even at least decent it's probably better to stick with it. VGC has long been sold out and would just be catching a cancellation. DVC does not seem to rent out any inventory there ever so they would not have any in their pool to "magically" pull for you but that's why the guide mentioned the other hotels.

I'm just going to say again - there is money to be saved buying PVB resale even now. To me a $2-3k isn't anything to just be dismissed. So IMO you were on the right track with your initial post. And IMO your being talked into spending more money. You're looking at a relatively common resale amount for PVB - nothing particularly small for there.

I believe the spread has to be bigger than that to make resale a good deal.

Shortly after sellout, certainly by the middle of next year, Poly will probably be a better resale buy. You might even be able to make out a small gain today, as you suggest. But. I think there are reasons why buying direct is a better deal unless resale is clearly a better deal. And you’d have to spend a bunch of time and effort to find a clearly better deal. Having a fully loaded direct contract would be more valuable than a thinly loaded $145 resale.

Time is money. For a novice that would need a months long learning curve to divine that perfect contract, going direct is a safer, better route precisely because the differential isn’t worth the risk.

Plus. If DVC continues to go down the same route as other timeshares, the number of direct points will matter in the future. Not enough to go out of your way to buy direct, mind you. But I believe that’s a possibility that is worth a hedge when you’re buying anyway and the current differential is so small.

(For example, what if DVC decides to give an extra FP per night for members staying on points and guests for every direct member with at least 160 qualifying points. Over the contract life of the next 50 years, I think something like that is highly likely, and worth the hedge. I do not believe that DVC will be happy long term with 25 point add ons and will move to differentiate between having a small add on and having a more substantial direct point stake. Again, at least worth enough of a hedge to tip the balance when the difference is so small.)

 

[jlnten17]

Well he found a reservation at Disneyland hotel and it is 39 points a night for Sun-Thurs January! So effectively $390 per night if I used them rather than rent them out. I think NOT!

 

[jlnten17]

Here is a quick question - how many points does everyone else have and do you find yourself needing more or having too many and renting them out?

 

[ziravan]

Well he found a reservation at Disneyland hotel and it is 39 points a night for Sun-Thurs January! So effectively $390 per night if I used them rather than rent them out. I think NOT!

I think you’ll find using your points at non-DVC hotels is almost always a bad use of points.

 

[ziravan]

Here is a quick question - how many points does everyone else have and do you find yourself needing more or having too many and renting them out?

Needing more for sure. Started with 252 BCV resale. Added on 168 point Poly direct (week 44 fixed btw) and now adding on 100 at AKV...

 

[jlnten17]

DVC will divide the initial sale of 175 into 100 and 75 and still give me the $1250 credit. Closing cost go up by about $30 so no real downside there. It is a bit of a stretch from what I initially planned to spend but here is the basic math as far as I see it. 175*176 = 30800 minus the $1250 incentive = 29550, + closing fee $687 (combined) = 30237. Then I have 350 points I do not intend to use from Dec 2016 and Dec 2017 combined which if I go the lazy route and use David's I can make approx. 10/point after deductions and Jan 2018 MF so $3500 back (I'm assuming that demand is decent and they will rent out) Bringing total cost to 30237-3500 = $26737 or 152.78/point. At that price seems worth it to stretch the extra $14000 or so to get the extra 75 points which I can resell later if we aren't using them especially once Poly sells out (will that really be so soon? I'd better hurry up and buy). And all points have the perks of being direct, contracts are small and I have my desired UY of Dec since we typically travel in January.

 

[jlnten17]

Ok am I crazy to consider 200 points as the incentive doubles to $2500 at that point. So price is 35200-2500 = 32700 + 785 (est closing cost) = 33485. Then I have 400 points banked to rent or approx. $4000 savings making the total cost $29485 or $147.42/point.

 

[mustinjourney]

DVC will divide the initial sale of 175 into 100 and 75 and still give me the $1250 credit. Closing cost go up by about $30 so no real downside there. It is a bit of a stretch from what I initially planned to spend but here is the basic math as far as I see it. 175*176 = 30800 minus the $1250 incentive = 29550, + closing fee $687 (combined) = 30237. Then I have 350 points I do not intend to use from Dec 2016 and Dec 2017 combined which if I go the lazy route and use David's I can make approx. 10/point after deductions and Jan 2018 MF so $3500 back (I'm assuming that demand is decent and they will rent out) Bringing total cost to 30237-3500 = $26737 or 152.78/point. At that price seems worth it to stretch the extra $14000 or so to get the extra 75 points which I can resell later if we aren't using them especially once Poly sells out (will that really be so soon? I'd better hurry up and buy). And all points have the perks of being direct, contracts are small and I have my desired UY of Dec since we typically travel in January.

so they couldn't pull any cash inventory from Grand Cali?

Aside from that -- I'd say you're off to a good start!

I have 305 points (280 at VGF and 25 at BCV) that I bought 15 months ago, and I've already bought 48 OTU points, and transferred in 169 BWV and 276 SSR points to use for reservations (the SSR points I used for a friend's princess marathon booking though). We've blown through a lot of points b/c we've done two week long stays in 2 BRs bringing the grandparents. We planned on only doing those just once -- so we should be good on points going forward.

 

[mustinjourney]

Ok am I crazy to consider 200 points as the incentive doubles to $2500 at that point. So price is 35200-2500 = 32700 + 785 (est closing cost) = 33485. Then I have 400 points banked to rent or approx. $4000 savings making the total cost $29485 or $147.42/point.

I would look at it as 25 additional points for $2750...which comes out to only $110 a point for those...so you'd be stupid not to.

 

[ziravan]

Ok am I crazy to consider 200 points as the incentive doubles to $2500 at that point. So price is 35200-2500 = 32700 + 785 (est closing cost) = 33485. Then I have 400 points banked to rent or approx. $4000 savings making the total cost $29485 or $147.42/point.

Plus. Even after renting two years of points, you’ll still have 2018 points that can be borrowed almost immediately should you decide to take a spontaneous 2018 trip.