Plans have been filed for DVC expansion at Caribbean Beach Resort

[Madonna3]

News alert. It's already been done. Canal is completed from EPCOT/MGM/MK/AK to Pop. Only 100k. Here is a picture of someone returning to their $300/night now deluxe Pop room.

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[dlavender]

Really? If it's "just" $37.85 million and some landscaping to link CBR to Epcot/DHS then why don't ALL resorts have a direct park access? Why don't we build a big bridge and link Coronado to AK? It's relatively the same distance as the crow flies from CBR to Epcot. Why don't we just go ahead and link all the value resorts to MK too? There's a reason it wasn't done in the beginning and there's a reason it won't be done now. The infrastructure required to do this does not exist and to make it exist will require substantial investment and then upkeep for absolutely no ROI. It creates more logistical nightmares than it solves the "how do we sell a moderate resort for deluxe DVC prices?" However, what you have come to your senses on is that if this is DVC then it MUST have park access to command the prices of DVC in it's current model to satisfy the demand of its current clientele. I just need you to come to your senses on how NOT easy and cheap it will be to do such a thing.



Exactly. While I realize the last part of your statement is sarcasm, your statement proved my point. If putting a tower on CBR property and dredging a canal makes CBR a deluxe DVC resort then what is stopping them from doing the same thing to POP, AOA, and then linking them to the imaginary CBR canal and calling them deluxe?? What will make AOA and POP command the same prices as CBR?

I used POP as my example because I knew it shared property lines with CBR. Disney does its landscaping so well, that until @lockedoutlogic pointed it out, you had no idea that they were connected and shared a housekeeping warehouse even though we both tried to tell you they were the same property separated by some trees and a parking lot. The Disney consumer has budgets and Disney designed resorts to match those budgets. Again, you don't get to call the Hampton Inn and the Waldorf Astoria the same level of resort because they both have beds and this is what you're trying to do with CBR vs other deluxe WDW properties. In no way would you expect the Waldorf to have Hampton Inn prices and vice versa and why is that? Is it because of clever marketing schemes or is it because one of these resorts is better than the other? The answer is because the Waldorf is significantly better than the Hampton. Yes, they both have beds, but the Waldorf uses higher quality linens, bedding, and mattresses. They both have furniture, but the Waldorf furniture comes from a high end manufacturer and the Hampton comes from Target. They both have pools, but the Waldorf pool has 6 waterfalls, jets every 10 feet, and a swim up bar. The Hampton Inn pool is a blue hole in the ground with one of those motorized handicapped lift chairs. It doesn't have waterfalls, or jets, or a swim up bar. The both have interior corridors leading to the rooms. The Hampton Inn has Sears carpet and the Waldorf has fresh flower arrangements in the hallways.

Are you getting it now? You can't just build a tower at CBR, throw in a new pool, and an incredibly expensive waterway and call it a deluxe. You have to have the service to match a deluxe level resort. You have to have the amenities to match a deluxe level resort. They're not going to build deluxe level service and attach it to a lower price point hotel to "share".

So here's where we agreed before. They must make CBR 2.0 it's own resort in order for it to have the deluxe label. The question remains, can they add enough infrastructure and theming to make this stand alone and command deluxe level prices WITHOUT park access? My position is unlikely, but not impossible. They'd have to make it comparable to the Four Seasons and I don't see that happening at CBR unless they completely demolish it and then you're losing a lot of moderate level rooms unless the expansion at CSR can accommodate for that. CSR is such a big resort already that I'm not sure its infrastructure could handle the CBR capacity so that's why I believe CBR will REMAIN a moderate level resort.[/USER]

[/QUOTE]


That pretty much sums it up very nicely.

My position is that I am confident that they could spend the minimum amount, building new rooms, and keep the per point price the same as it is now, just lower point totals and still probably sell it out. They could probably put 50 mil in and take 300 mil out. I don't see why they would want to put 300 in to take 600 out, and take such a risk that it doesn't sell out. That extra 50 mil does not seem worth it, IMO. But I'm playing with terribly estimated figures, I'm sure. Perhaps their spreadsheets tell them a vastly different story. Perhaps they think they can put in 50 and take out 600 still.

Either way, I'm still betting that you will be taking the bus from this new CBR building to any theme park. Unless FL sinks into the ocean.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

That pretty much sums it up very nicely.

My position is that I am confident that they could spend the minimum amount, building new rooms, and keep the per point price the same as it is now, just lower point totals and still probably sell it out. They could probably put 50 mil in and take 300 mil out. I don't see why they would want to put 300 in to take 600 out, and take such a risk that it doesn't sell out. That extra 50 mil does not seem worth it, IMO. But I'm playing with terribly estimated figures, I'm sure. Perhaps their spreadsheets tell them a vastly different story. Perhaps they think they can put in 50 and take out 600 still.

Either way, I'm still betting that you will be taking the bus from this new CBR building to any theme park. Unless FL sinks into the ocean.

I agree with this with the one caveat that this is just the first part of a larger effort and then any additional transportation (via water or other - anything beyond a dedicated bus) would be for more than one resort then I could see it

I just can't see them building new canals or whatever just for 600 rooms or so at one part of one resort ... just make it as nice as they can, give it views of a park/fireworks, have a dedicated bus and charge what they can

 

[lockedoutlogic]

That pretty much sums it up very nicely.

My position is that I am confident that they could spend the minimum amount, building new rooms, and keep the per point price the same as it is now, just lower point totals and still probably sell it out. They could probably put 50 mil in and take 300 mil out. I don't see why they would want to put 300 in to take 600 out, and take such a risk that it doesn't sell out. That extra 50 mil does not seem worth it, IMO. But I'm playing with terribly estimated figures, I'm sure. Perhaps their spreadsheets tell them a vastly different story. Perhaps they think they can put in 50 and take out 600 still.

Either way, I'm still betting that you will be taking the bus from this new CBR building to any theme park. Unless FL sinks into the ocean.[/QUOTE]

Executive order coming on that next week

 

[skier_pete]

I feel a little like we are spinning in circles on this thread....but I guess I'm going to keep the spinning.

Really? If it's "just" $37.85 million and some landscaping to link CBR to Epcot/DHS then why don't ALL resorts have a direct park access? Why don't we build a big bridge and link Coronado to AK? It's relatively the same distance as the crow flies from CBR to Epcot. Why don't we just go ahead and link all the value resorts to MK too?

Because you wouldn't WANT to have direct park access from your values and your moderates. Do you read the DIS? Why do people HAVE to stay at a MONORAIL resort, not because they are the nicest resorts of all. It's because they are on the monorail loop. It's the quick park access.

Why does AK charge $300 a night and the Poly charge $700 a night? It's not because the Poly is a WAY nicer resort. It's location and park access. 100%.

What is the #1 reason that BC/YC and BW are so popular. Sure, the pool is high on the list at BC, but #1 is the park access.

But if Disney decided to connect Caribbean Beach (and POP century, and Corando) directly to Epcot - well, now there's a lot more demand for Caribbean Beach, but boy is there a lot LESS demand for Beach Club. You gonna pay an extra $200 a night for a pool?

So - I realize this argument I'm making is saying that they will NOT want to direct connect Caribbean Beach to Epcot - and this is true, but it depends on what the plans are:

A) IF they want a DELUXE resort to sell on par with the likes of Boardwalk or BLT, well - then they will connect it to the park.
B) IF they decide they want a DVC resort more on lines with SSR and OKW or maybe even AKV - something they can sell, but doesn't really pull in big point totals - then they won't connect it. They can try to sell it that with it's own bus that's a 5 minute ride to DHS and Epcot, and that might be good enough.

People are arguing hard on the side of why one or the other is the only possible answer - and I have to say I am in the middle. I lean towards B only because it's not like Disney to leave money on the table, but on the other side of things, they might feel they can get enough money with A and 20% of the rooms with a theme park view.

It's a wait and see game now - I think it'll be sometime in 2018 before we know the answer.

 

[Madonna3]

I feel a little like we are spinning in circles on this thread....but I guess I'm going to keep the spinning.

Got something else better to do?

Because you wouldn't WANT to have direct park access from your values and your moderates. Do you read the DIS? Why do people HAVE to stay at a MONORAIL resort, not because they are the nicest resorts of all. It's because they are on the monorail loop. It's the quick park access.

Exactly. Hence the reason why the "value" and "moderate" categories exist and don't have park access. This was my argument as to why I felt CBR would NOT be connected to Epcot/DHS even with it's "deluxe" upgrade.

So - I realize this argument I'm making is saying that they will NOT want to direct connect Caribbean Beach to Epcot - and this is true, but it depends on what the plans are:

A) IF they want a DELUXE resort to sell on par with the likes of Boardwalk or BLT, well - then they will connect it to the park.
B) IF they decide they want a DVC resort more on lines with SSR and OKW or maybe even AKV - something they can sell, but doesn't really pull in big point totals - then they won't connect it. They can try to sell it that with it's own bus that's a 5 minute ride to DHS and Epcot, and that might be good enough.

People are arguing hard on the side of why one or the other is the only possible answer - and I have to say I am in the middle. I lean towards B only because it's not like Disney to leave money on the table, but on the other side of things, they might feel they can get enough money with A and 20% of the rooms with a theme park view.

It's a wait and see game now - I think it'll be sometime in 2018 before we know the answer.

I'm not arguing about access. I've taken access off the table. My argument is will this remain moderate or will this be "deluxe"? Even OKW and SSR were given their own category as "home away from home" or "deluxe villa", whatever, point is they were taken from the "deluxe" pool, but they didn't want to classify or sell them as a moderate so your scenario as option B seems the FAR more likely option. I'm haven't ruled out the NO DVC option either and these will be suites like AOA but at a moderate resort, but I also haven't complete crossed off this being a DVC model.

 

[skier_pete]

Got something else better to do?

Clearly I don't!

I'm not arguing about access. I've taken access off the table. My argument is will this remain moderate or will this be "deluxe"? Even OKW and SSR were given their own category as "home away from home" or "deluxe villa", whatever, point is they were taken from the "deluxe" pool, but they didn't want to classify or sell them as a moderate so your scenario as option B seems the FAR more likely option. I'm haven't ruled out the NO DVC option either and these will be suites like AOA but at a moderate resort, but I also haven't complete crossed off this being a DVC model.

The option I think least likely is the whole "moderate suites" option. It all comes back to them taking so many rooms out of inventory. 9 buildings - almost 600 rooms. I just can't see them spending the money to rip out a bunch of rooms, build a tower, and essentially make the same amount of money they are making now. But a 7-story tower, as the discussion seems to be with the sight balloons - just isn't going to add enough rooms to make up for the rooms they are taking out - it makes less sense than a theme park entrance.

I've started to settle on the "lower cost DVC" in the vein of OKW/SSR not a "moderate DVC". Something like a 75-80 point low-season week in "standard" and 100-110 point in "theme park view" - similar to SSR point structure. They'll try and rely on the regular DVC model to sell it. They better hope the economy holds, though.

I also start to wonder - I've heard rumors that they want to build another DVC tower at the Contemporary, but place it where the Convention Center is - but I heard they had to wait to clear out all the booked conventions. I wonder if they are considering this a "stop gap" location, one that maybe they sell for slightly less between when CC-WLV sells out, and a BLT2 can be built.

 

[Madonna3]

Clearly I don't!



The option I think least likely is the whole "moderate suites" option. It all comes back to them taking so many rooms out of inventory. 9 buildings - almost 600 rooms. I just can't see them spending the money to rip out a bunch of rooms, build a tower, and essentially make the same amount of money they are making now. But a 7-story tower, as the discussion seems to be with the sight balloons - just isn't going to add enough rooms to make up for the rooms they are taking out - it makes less sense than a theme park entrance.

I've started to settle on the "lower cost DVC" in the vein of OKW/SSR not a "moderate DVC". Something like a 75-80 point low-season week in "standard" and 100-110 point in "theme park view" - similar to SSR point structure. They'll try and rely on the regular DVC model to sell it. They better hope the economy holds, though.

I also start to wonder - I've heard rumors that they want to build another DVC tower at the Contemporary, but place it where the Convention Center is - but I heard they had to wait to clear out all the booked conventions. I wonder if they are considering this a "stop gap" location, one that maybe they sell for slightly less between when CC-WLV sells out, and a BLT2 can be built.

While I am not crossing anything off the drawing board yet, except direct park access, I tend to agree with you that I feel if this goes DVC it will fall in line with OKW and SSR, which makes so little sense to me since there is no demand for SSR and they're giving it away free if you buy elsewhere. So if you build it, they will come? Clearly not.

 

[DanBoris]

I believe with that posters logic it would connect to the existing infrastructure in that it would let off at international gateway. Why would they need more staff? Maybe another boat driver or two.

Let's not forget that the canal behind Epcot does not connect to the waterway at the IG which complicates things.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Polynesian and contemporary at bad comparison as far as pricing goes...they weren't built to be "deluxe"...but they just had nicer amenities built in because Disney took pride in providing better value for the dollar then.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Let's not forget that the canal behind Epcot does not connect to the waterway at the IG which complicates things.

As in that canal would have to be widened? A lot...

And they would have a lot to hide from the boats view...a lot?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

While I am not crossing anything off the drawing board yet, except direct park access, I tend to agree with you that I feel if this goes DVC it will fall in line with OKW and SSR, which makes so little sense to me since there is no demand for SSR and they're giving it away free if you buy elsewhere. So if you build it, they will come? Clearly not.

Saratoga is a lot nicer than Caribbean...hate to point that out because I'm it's biggest (for many of the same reasons I am of this Caribbean idea...actually)critic...

It's too laid out and was poorly repurposed...but it has nicer pools, food facilities, grounds and the direct access to the much larger downtown increases it's value (a big part of the planning...I bet).

The closer example is old key west...

Old key west is the nicer "Marriott" Version to caribbean's "Hampton inn" look.

 

[Madonna3]

Saratoga is a lot nicer than Caribbean...hate to point that out because I'm it's biggest (for many of the same reasons I am of this Caribbean idea...actually)critic...

It's too laid out and was poorly repurposed...but it has nicer pools, food facilities, grounds and the direct access to the much larger downtown increases it's value (a big part of the planning...I bet).

The closer example is old key west...

Old key west is the nicer "Marriott" Version to caribbean's "Hampton inn" look.

Meh. Stayed at all of them. I actually prefer SSR to OKW, but I don't find them any nicer than CBR and I guess that's why I was so disappointed in SSR when it came out.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Meh. Stayed at all of them. I actually prefer SSR to OKW, but I don't find them any nicer than CBR and I guess that's why I was so disappointed in SSR when it came out.

Well...opinions do vary. All DVC's have much nicer bones than Caribbean. I know this because I've seen all their bones.

It's about more than parks for me...sure I'm there...but I don't need to get on the choo choo or the boat and rush to them. They are stagnant as hell now...so I've actually enjoyed Saratoga and old key west more for the seclusion recently than I ever did before.

Still rather stay and beach club or poly...but the gap isn't as big for me anymore.

 

[sachilles]

As in that canal would have to be widened? A lot...

And they would have a lot to hide from the boats view...a lot?

It's a different water way.
If flows under the water bridge at the international gateway. It's like an M.C. Escher painting. Whatever witchcraft they use...err I mean engineering....would need to be used at the hypothetical connection for CBR.
Or use the existing canal...widen it with boat turnarounds and have it terminate behind France.

It isn't something insurmountable, but it isn't something from the standard playbook, and therefore, cost would increase.

 

[sachilles]

You can see the existing canal, as it goes under the gateway canal.

 

[Madonna3]

How 'bout this...

Can someone draw up the possibilities for connections using Google Earth and paint?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

How 'bout this...

Can someone draw up the possibilities for connections using Google Earth and paint?

That's what Disney capital planning does everytime they hit the drawing boards...why leave the office when you have Al Gore's internet?

 

[jade1]

There is a path already.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

...that's exactly how far you'd get.