Pirates of the Caribbean - back row

[Laketravis]

You have to acknowledge that if you are trying to make an argument that overall crowd levels are down from the comparable dates in 2012 and 2013, you have nothing to base

Not saying that at all. If that was my point, I would agree. It's a bit more complicated than that - I believe wait times are disproportionately higher in relation to park attendance in much the same sense that Disney's price increases have been disproportionate to inflation.

My other point is that those crowd level indicators are no longer reliable when they are simply based on wait times. I have a wealth of points to support that statement but it is not easy to do from my phone and this isn't the thread for it. But I'm not trying to sell a touring plan or a book on touring so I have no vested interest in trying to preserve the integrity of a standard that is based on wait times to measure crowd levels.

Two things bother me the most - that a field from Disney's data stream is being misinterpreted as "Actual" standby wait times when it really isn't, and that at least one of the most popular pay-for touring strategy sites out there base their crowd numbers on wait times, which Disney has rendered just as ambiguous as subjective interpretation.

 

[wareagle57]

Interesting that you posted that. I took a picture today of the standby line for People Mover - at the same time the wait for Space Mountain was only 10 minutes. Not only did I think it was strange for People Mover to have such a long line, it seemed even more unusual under such light crowd conditions.

Maybe the light crowds led people to ride things they wouldn't normally ride because they had already taken care of the biggies, or were ahead of schedule?

I know at least for my trip that's how I have it broken out. I have my general schedule for everything we "have" to do and how much time I think it will take. But I also have contingency notes for if we finish a certain block of rides by X time, then we can ride one of these other rides too.

 

[Laketravis]

Here are the "what we saw" crowd levels reported by Touring Plans for the last 9 days in the form of MK/Epcot/DHS/DAK 11/23 8/8/7/7 11/24 10/9/10/9 11/25 3/9/8/5 (I think this was the day with really bad weather) 11/26 7/9/10/9 11/27 10/10/10/9 (Thanksgiving Day) 11/28 9/10/10/8 11/29 8/8/6/7 11/30 2/4/5/2 12/1 7/4/4/1 And here are the current predictions for the next 4 days: 12/2 3/3/4/4 (observed 2/3/2/1) 12/3 3/4/3/4 12/4 3/3/3/4 12/5 4/4/4/5

Those are some unusually low numbers for Sunday, why do you think that is? Do they have their 'what we saw' numbers for yesterday, the 2nd?

 

[soniam]

Who really cares if people mover has a line? I've been in lines for it before (yes even before there was any FP+, I assume all of this is people again complaining that lines are longer due to FP+). It moves fast so it never occurred to me to complain about the line.

I have also waited in line fie the People Mover. I think we waited ~15 minutes toward the beginning of June 2012, way before FP+.

We went in late July this year, and I felt waits were actually shorter overall. I don't recall any particular ride having much longer waits than we had seen in June 2012, even the rides that typically have very little, if any, wait. The waits are terrible. Don't bother going to WDW anymore

 

[wisblue]

Those are some unusually low numbers for Sunday, why do you think that is? Do they have their 'what we saw' numbers for yesterday, the 2nd?

I updated my original post. The "what we saw" numbers for yesterday are:

MK 2, Epc 3, DHS 2, DAK 1.

This is consistent with my occasional checks of the Wait Times site that showed what I would consider low wait times all day.

 

[Laketravis]

I updated my original post. The "what we saw" numbers for yesterday are: MK 2, Epc 3, DHS 2, DAK 1. This is consistent with my occasional checks of the Wait Times site that showed what I would consider low wait times all day.

Rain put a damper on MK yesterday (also confirmed by another DIS'er who was there) but Sunday had great weather and followed Thanksgiving.

Why such a low MK number for Sunday when wait times were much higher than Tuesday with the same 'what we saw' value?

 

[johde]

No, I don't think you did.

You seem to dwell on 'average wait times' without any consideration to personal waits at all.

Forget that those 'crowd indicators' are based on wait times, not head counts. Then consider, for example, someone who may have in the past rode their favorite attraction twice in one day. I don't think that is excessive obsessive compulsion, a touring maniac, or an FP power user by any stretch of the imagination.

Let's also suppose that they used two FP's to do so. And let's further suppose that we are talking about Space Mountain

They might have spent a total of 20 minutes in line for those two ride opportunities. But try that now with one FP and then a Standby Line, since there is a very high probability our example guest will not be able to get a second FP for Space Mountain that day.

One FP queue of 10 minutes plus one standby queue of 50 minutes and our guest has spent a total of 60 minutes in line, or 300% more than their previous experiences.

Do they feel the difference? You bet they do. Multiply this by several times a day over multiple days in different parks and the net result is our guest is spending much more time in lines than they previously did.

This is only one aspect to consider. Another is the higher utilization rate of FP+ and yet another are the extremely sophisticated algorithms Disney has developed to manage, manipulate, and distribute guests in the parks.

Those are the things I'll try to address in another thread as this one has been hijacked enough already.

Another thing to consider in the 30% or 300% argument is time of day. 30% is the average change in wait time. But comparing minute to minute, the people in the standby line are going to experience different things. People who were in the standby line at peak afternoon times may have seen their wait time stay the same or go down. Conversely, lines may be building to those levels more quickly. So especially people who would traditionally ride a ride in the 10:00 - noon could be finding much longer lines. Likewise, in the evenings, lines could stay longer later in the even later than they did in the past.

 

[Cals dad]

One thing that is also driving up wait times on PotC is the break downs. Being an AP holder, I go quite frequently, and I can't remember the last time that ride didn't break down multiple times while in line. Heck, every other time we go to get on it, it seems that they aren't letting anyone else queue up for it because it is broken down. Many, many rides are starting to show their age, and breakdowns all over the place don't help line lengths. How often does Splash Mountain break down? Whenever I have a fastpass+ scheduled for it during a breakdown, They usually send me a list of rides I can use my fastpass+ for, and PotC is usually on that list. So, even when other rides break down, they are specifically driving traffic to other rides.

 

[wisblue]

Why such a low MK number for Sunday when wait times were much higher than Tuesday with the same 'what we saw' value?

Obviously, I can't speak for Touring Plans as to exactly how they translate wait times for attractions.

According to TP, the wait times on Sunday for the attractions they use to determine crowd levels were only slightly higher than the wait times on Tuesday. Specifically, here are the average wait times for those attractions according to that site for Sunday and Tuesday (both of which they placed at level 2), and then for Thanksgiving Day (which they placed at Level 10).

BTMRR Sun 26/Tue 20/Thanksgiving 58
Buzz 18/15/50
Jungle 24/22/58
Peter Pan 43/44/90
Pirates 18/15/57
Space 28/22/76
Splash 20/13/40
HM 28/closed/43
Pooh 24/21/41

Obviously, the times for Thanksgiving Day are dramatically higher. I accept no responsibility if the data presented on Touring Plans is inaccurate.

 

[wisblue]

My other point is that those crowd level indicators are no longer reliable when they are simply based on wait times. I have a wealth of points to support that statement but it is not easy to do from my phone and this isn't the thread for it. But I'm not trying to sell a touring plan or a book on touring so I have no vested interest in trying to preserve the integrity of a standard that is based on wait times to measure crowd levels.

I don't get why it should surprise or bother you that crowd calendars would be based on wait times at attractions. It seems to me that that is what most people planning trips and days in the parks care most about. They don't really care if 40,000 or 50,000 people are in the MK on a given day because that number has no real meaning. But to tell them that they can expect a wait time of approximately 30 minutes at Space Mountain at 11 AM is something that can help with their plans.