Per-park crowds and closing crowds

[Masonmj84]

How off am I on these assumptions about per-park crowds and park closing crowds?

Magic Kingdom (5 day) = 45,000ish
Epcot (5 day) = 30,000ish
HS and AK (5 day) = 26,000ish

At a given park, a 10 day is about twice as crowded as a 5 day whereas a 1 day is about half as crowded as a 5 day.

Where I get really unsure of things is the park closing (e.g., after Wishes, Illuminations etc.) crowds versus park crowds. In that regard, I assume the numbers above refer to the absolute numbers of people that go through the turnstyles on a given day and not the average number of people in the park during that day.

So at closing, what percentage of the people that have gone through the turnstyles are stilll in the park?

I'm gonig to assume 2/3 (67%) at MK, EP, and HS and 1/2 (50%) at AK. Does this sound about right? Or am I way off?

This would mean that on a 5 day, there are about 30,000 people trying to leave MK after wishes (assuming no EMH, etc.), 20,000 trying to leave Epcot after Illuminations, about 17,000 trying to leave HS after Fantasmic (when there's only one showing), and about 13,000 people leaving AK at closing.

Again, does this sound off?

What gets tricker are nights where there are more than one late event/show at a given park. Like when HS has two showings of Fantasmic. I'd assume that when there's a pre-park closing earlier show, at least 75% of the guests at that show leave the park after it's over (drawing out, say 7,000 people). So that should drop the people trying to leave after the second show to say, somewhere around 10,000 people (I realize not everyone that's in the park late is at that second show).

Special events like MVMCP and MNSSHP are similar. Let's take MVMCP as an example. Assume at an average night, 15,000 people come to the party. I'd guess almost no one leaves until at least after Holiday Wishes are over at which point, say, 25% of the party guests or about 3,800 people leave. Another 25% leave after the second parade, meaing about 7,500 people stay until the end of the party.

Do these numbers seem right? Where are my assumptions wrong?

 

[mill4023]

Looks like you took the TEA annual attendance estimates and divided by 365, right?

I assume they have some way of getting fairly accurate numbers, so your average numbers are probably pretty good.

But the rest of it is pure guessing.

Maybe a crowd level 10 has twice as many people as a 5, but maybe it doesn't.
Isn't it possible that a crowd level 1 day has 35k people, a 5 has 45k, and a 10 has 55k? It's not as simple as saying that if wait times are twice as long, there must be twice as many people. In other words, it's possible that there could be a much narrower range between a 1 and a 10 than what you think.

The average numbers themselves could be misleading. Just because the average is 45k at MK, doesn't mean that a crowd level 5 day is 45k. The average could be skewed by really high or low numbers other days. A better measure of a typical crowd level 5 day would be the median, but there is no way to calculate it without daily attendance figures.