Pandemic?

[mommy*RN]

Yes.....But of those 36,000 deaths, many are from the strains covered by the annual flu shot.....They're just victims who failed to get the flu shot. So MILLIONS of Americans didn't contract the flu in the first place because the immunization protected them. Meaning, millions and millions of Americans were are minimal risk (due to the vaccine) of ever even falling into that group of 36,000. Almost all that 36,000 consists of people who received no flu shot.

This swine flu has no vaccine, so all those vaccinated millions we normally factor out every year as being "safe" and at virtually no risk of dying can no longer be factored out. The "at risk" pool for contracting this flu has just gone up by millions, in the US alone. Then you take whatever percentage of unvaccinated people normally die from the flu they contract and I think the numbers have the potential to be MUCH higher than 36,000. It all depends on just how nasty this strain turns out to be. The lack of vaccine is key. Right now, we're sitting ducks.....We just don't know what's taking aim at us. A bullet or a foam dart?

You do realize that the influenza vaccine is not always on the mark, right? There are so many different strains of the flu that it is impossible to cover all in an immunization. The WHO, CDC and drug companies watch for "trends" in other countries (much like all eyes are on New Zealand since they are entering their flu season). They can only watch for so long until the drug companies have to get to work making the vaccine so there aren't the shortages. Then suddenly a new type of influenza pops up, or one that wasn't affecting a lot of people suddenly gets a new life and people start getting sick. It's too late for the drug companies to "add" it to the mix so it doesn't get in.

That said, I am all for the influenza vaccine. My kids get it, my DH gets it and I get it. In 2007 my kids got their vaccines in October for the 2007-2008 flu season. In late February my oldest DS suddenly popped a high temp. It was a Sunday so I called the Pediatrician on call who recommended an urgent care. I knew it was flu. They rapid tested him and sure enough it was flu. He went on Tamiflu and bounced back really quickly. This year I got him the flu shot again and thankfully no flu in our house.

 

[LuvOrlando]

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[OK!]

I'm going under the assumption that electricity and water will still be available - I guess my thinking was that a quarantine is about the worst I can see happening (but I have read "The Stand" many times ... ergh). If we were to stay home for 10 days to two weeks, I picked up the things I thought we would need.

I was just gonna say...now would NOT be the best time to re-read The Stand, even if it is one of my favorite books. Shoot, the first summer I read it, every time I heard somebody cough I wanted to race away & put on a HAZMAT suit.

 

[mommy*RN]

First US swine flu death, spread deepens in Europe
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090429/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu
WASHINGTON – Virulent swine flu swept deeper into Europe Wednesday, extending its global reach as President Barack Obama mourned the first U.S. death, a Mexican toddler in Texas, and said wider school closings in the United States may be necessary. Total U.S. cases surged to nearly 100.

Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano was questioned closely by senators at a hearing in Washington about whether the U.S. should close its border with Mexico, where the outbreak apparently began and the casualties have been the greatest. She repeated the administration's position that "passive surveillance" of U.S. land and seaports was sufficient for now and said closing borders "has not been merited by the facts."

Still, she said the disease has spread to four more states and 91 cases now have been confirmed.

In a possible outbreak north of the Mexican border, the commandant of the Marine Corps said a Marine lieutenant in southern California might have the illness and 39 Marines were being confined at the Twentynine Palms base until tests come back.

In Washington, Obama said he wanted to extend "my thoughts and prayers" to the family of a nearly two-year-old Mexican boy who died in Houston, the first confirmed U.S. fatality among more than five dozen infections. Health officials in Texas said the child had traveled with his family from Mexico, to Brownsville on April 4 and was brought to Houston after becoming ill. He died Monday night.

"This is obviously a serious situation," and "we are closely and continuously monitoring" it, Obama said of the spreading illness.

 

[EMom]

You do realize that the influenza vaccine is not always on the mark, right? There are so many different strains of the flu that it is impossible to cover all in an immunization. The WHO, CDC and drug companies watch for "trends" in other countries (much like all eyes are on New Zealand since they are entering their flu season). They can only watch for so long until the drug companies have to get to work making the vaccine so there aren't the shortages. Then suddenly a new type of influenza pops up, or one that wasn't affecting a lot of people suddenly gets a new life and people start getting sick. It's too late for the drug companies to "add" it to the mix so it doesn't get in.

That said, I am all for the influenza vaccine. My kids get it, my DH gets it and I get it. In 2007 my kids got their vaccines in October for the 2007-2008 flu season. In late February my oldest DS suddenly popped a high temp. It was a Sunday so I called the Pediatrician on call who recommended an urgent care. I knew it was flu. They rapid tested him and sure enough it was flu. He went on Tamiflu and bounced back really quickly. This year I got him the flu shot again and thankfully no flu in our house.

Yes, I get that. Some years it's more accurate than others. I've gotten one for 25 years and only gotten the flu once. I used the phrase "sitting ducks" but coupled it with a qualifier. We ARE sitting ducks with no available vaccine and every doctor I have heard has said that current flu vaccines likely offer no protection against this strain. The question is, what are we as sitting ducks being targeted with? A potentially killer virus or something not much worse than a bad bug? THAT is what we do not know. If it turns out to be mild, then even if LOTS of people get it, we'll likely have few fatalities and it will all blow over. No biggie. If it turns out to target the healthiest, as the Spanish Flu did, it will be a disaster.

At first, the reports out of Mexico made it sound like this might be the case, but with the NY kids in their late teens getting it and making good recoveries, it seems something must make the effect different in Mexico than here. That's not a stretch.

I'm not in a panic. I'm not stockpiling, although I do need to get more Northern and paper towels. But that's everyday life for us. The worst aspect about this for me is that I have no faith in the US government to take a strong stance to protect its citizens, even if this DID turn out to be a dangerous situation. So I'm crossing my fingers it fizzles. Because in all seriousness, "crossing fingers" is pretty much what it seems the government is doing.

 

[Christine]

If it turns out to target the healthiest, as the Spanish Flu did, it will be a disaster.

The Spanish flu did not target healthy individuals. The Spanish flu targeted everyone. The immune system of younger, healthy individuals did its job too well against the Spanish flu causing a rapid influx of white blood cells into the lungs which caused a quick "drowning" if you will.

So far, this particular strain does not appear to be causing this rapid immune response.

 

[mommy*RN]

EMom - did you watch the Charlie Rose interview someone posted way back when in this thread? I get what your trying to say. I'm not panicky yet either, but I'm vigilant. I want to know what is going on in my community and then the world. Going to the grocery today for our weekly supplies (it's double coupon day!!)

Anyhoo I mention the Charlie Rose interview because one of the interviewees mentions a drug resistant strain if the swine flu...she talks about it for about 20 seconds and then it is DROPPED. So I'm left wondering -- where is this drug resistant strain, how did they find it and is it on a rampage too?

 

[pansmermaidzlagoon]

We are not sitting ducks. It is actually unknown as yet whether any of the flu prevention shots people have had over the years (I am 53 and have had quite a few) is responsible for the mild strain creeping in the USA. Remember, in pandemics the very young and the elderly tend to do better (as a group) than the young and healthy.

I mean, they are not even sure this is a 'swine' flu. Hence last night one CDC official stated that they were thinking of changing the name to the North American Flu.

we DO know it is H1N1 and that it contains avian, swine, and human RNA - they are closing in on a pig farm in Mexico as a potential source. The name change is "politics" and "economics" - not an indication that we do not know what we are dealing with.

as for the previous post, while it is true the seasonal flu effects the elderly and very young - it is not about "failure" to immunize as much as you state. It is about people who are infirm and immune compromised. The flu shot has been found not to be as effective in the elderly at preventing deaths, many people with health problems can not be immunized, as well as babies who are too young. Many young and healthy individuals choose not to immunize against flu and yet are not part of those numbers. I agree overall with what you are saying in general - but it is more complicated than "failure" to immunize and has more to do with being ill and infirm....

 

[pansmermaidzlagoon]

EMom - did you watch the Charlie Rose interview someone posted way back when in this thread? I get what your trying to say. I'm not panicky yet either, but I'm vigilant. I want to know what is going on in my community and then the world. Going to the grocery today for our weekly supplies (it's double coupon day!!)

Anyhoo I mention the Charlie Rose interview because one of the interviewees mentions a drug resistant strain if the swine flu...she talks about it for about 20 seconds and then it is DROPPED. So I'm left wondering -- where is this drug resistant strain, how did they find it and is it on a rampage too?

L. Garrett did not make it sound like it is "going around". Just that they know it is out there (but "where" she didn't say). She did make the point that if the current strain circulating mixes with this one and becomes resistant it would be very problematic......she seemed very much concerned with that possibility.....I agree , wish we knew more...but it sounds like another one of the many "we have to wait and sees" that they listed....

 

[legalsea]

Article from BBC about swine flu (including it still not being known if it actually mutated from swine, etc).

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8023820.stm

Yet another article about the swine flu; http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1894534,00.html?xid=rss-world

 

[pansmermaidzlagoon]

So far, this particular strain does not appear to be causing this rapid immune response.

from what the experts said on Charlie Rose, they don't know that yet. It did target the younger population (2 to late 50's) in Mexico. Here, they aid they do not have the numbers or the evidence yet to know just how it will go.

 

[pansmermaidzlagoon]

Article from BBC about swine flu (including it still not being known if it actually mutated from swine, etc).

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8023820.stm

I am not sure what your point is, it is H1N1 with avian, swine, and human components. They know swine are the perfect vessel for this mix. As I said, they have a pig farm they are pretty sure is the source. If it isn't pig then it is avian - right? Either way it is the same, right? The potential course and virulancy doesn't change?

 

[LuvOrlando]

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[Texa]

They shut down both of the school districts in our town today for 10 days. This includes all afterschool care, daycares, and extra curricular activities. They were TAKS testing, so it wasn't a decision that was made lightly. The kids are thrilled of course but now all the parents in town are scrambling to take time off or find a safe place for their kids to stay.

In the meantime they are disinfecting ALL schools in the district, whether there was a confirmed case of swine flu or not. I'm very happy with the proactive responsiveness but BOY what a mess!

 

[TimothyQMouse]

...
In truth I doubt 100% that the Russians are actually that uninformed, its just a ruse to push through an embargo without the threat of punishment from the UN. Sly dogs.
...

This is a bit off topic, but the UN doesn't care a pig's patooty about free trade. The organization that enforces trade agreements is the WTO (World Trade Organization), which is completely independent of the UN.

 

[LuvOrlando]

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[MelanieC]

They shut down both of the school districts in our town today for 10 days. This includes all afterschool care, daycares, and extra curricular activities. They were TAKS testing, so it wasn't a decision that was made lightly. The kids are thrilled of course but now all the parents in town are scrambling to take time off or find a safe place for their kids to stay.

In the meantime they are disinfecting ALL schools in the district, whether there was a confirmed case of swine flu or not. I'm very happy with the proactive responsiveness but BOY what a mess!

We just received a message at work that our company is allowing anyone who has kids who are affected by school closures due to the Swine flu, can work at home during this time. Sure does take any pressure off - course I knew it wouldn't really be a problem anyway. In fact, if it starts affecting people here at work - I can see them telling everyone they can work at home as well. Thank goodness I have a job that can be done via a computer and at home.

 

[Colleen27]

Anyhoo I mention the Charlie Rose interview because one of the interviewees mentions a drug resistant strain if the swine flu...she talks about it for about 20 seconds and then it is DROPPED. So I'm left wondering -- where is this drug resistant strain, how did they find it and is it on a rampage too?

I didn't catch he interview, but was it said that the resistant strain had achieved human-to-human transition? Most swine flus don't, so perhaps that is why the resistant ttrain isn't being talked about. If it were spreading, I'm sure our fear-mongering media would be all over that angle!

 

[LuvOrlando]

I didn't catch he interview, but was it said that the resistant strain had achieved human-to-human transition? Most swine flus don't, so perhaps that is why the resistant ttrain isn't being talked about. If it were spreading, I'm sure our fear-mongering media would be all over that angle!

This caught my attention.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LT910095.htm

The potential to raise the alert yet again seems to be based upon the virus' progression to a stage where second degree infections are able to cause third degree infections.

at least they're all on top of things

 

[OctMtnWoods]

I wasn't worried at all , not even concerned, just going with the flow until I saw some guy on the news yesterday. He was showing computer models they had run, maps of the US, showing if they did nothing, how the flu would spread across the country in 3 months. Then they ran it again, if they did different scenieros like restricting travel, and something else (I forget what). In each case, the flu cases were less, but still significant number of people infected with the flu.

I wish I could find that online so I could look at it a little more.

For someone like me who hasn't followed this closely, and doesn't know the history of past flus, it made me take notice.