Over 3,500 people quarantined on Diamond Princess cruise

[disneyholic family]

We have the same in the Netherlands, but this was already decided when the first flight with people from Wuhan area came back to Europe. My manager is among them, decided to go to the planned family visit for Chinese new year. And now that he is back, he has to stay home for two weeks, I believe. But at work we weren't told all the details.
We still have 0 cases in my country.

i think we're still at zero as well, which is surprising considering the number of business/pleasure travelers we have.

i feel sorry for japan, they must be so upset with the olympics only months away..
they'll lose a fortune if this situation continues...
.

 

[Brett Wyman]

i think we're still at zero as well, which is surprising considering the number of business/pleasure travelers we have.

i feel sorry for japan, they must be so upset with the olympics only months away..
they'll lose a fortune if this situation continues...
.

Sadly theres no way this will wrap up before the Olympics starts. SARS was 8-9 months I think?

 

[Starwind]

The WHO Sitrep for 9 Feb has an update about the Princess Diamond: https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...20200209-sitrep-20-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=6f80d1b9_2

QUOTE

Update on Cruise Ship Diamond Princess:On 9 February, Japanese National Health Authorities provided WHO with a detailed update on the situation of the Cruise Ship Diamond Princess,currently harboured in Yokohama, Japan. Following confirmation of a case of 2019-nCoV, all crew and passengers are being quarantined for a 14-day period on board the vessel, asked to stay in their cabins and to wear a mask when leaving their cabin. All crew and passengers are closely followed-up and are medically examined and tested for 2019-nCoV when displaying any signs or symptoms suggestive of 2019-nCoV disease. The quarantine period will come to an end on 19 February. Epidemiological and environmental investigations are ongoing.

As of 8 February, 64 individuals were found to have been infected with 2019-nCoV among passengers and crew members. All individuals testing positive were disembarked and admitted for medical care in infectious disease hospitals in the Yokohama area. Close contacts of the infected passengers are asked to remain in quarantine for 14 days from last contact with a confirmed case. Thus, the quarantine period will be extended beyond the 19 February as appropriate only for close contacts of newly confirmed cases.

END QUOTE

 

[MarkLT1]

no you shouldn't be worried. 70 out of 3700 people is not that alarming to me - it's less than 2% of the people on board. When there is a noro or flu outbreak the numbers are WAY higher for people affected.

I definitely wouldn't look at it like that at this point. What you need to remember about noro and flu, is that their incubation time is much shorter- ~2 days for noro and 2-4 days for the flu. This coronavirus looks to have a 5-14 day incubation period, so lets say the average is ~10 days. The individual brought it on board on the 20th, left the ship on the 25th. We also dont know how easily this bug spreads when you're asymptomatic, but if it is like most of these bugs, it is likely much easier to spread when you're sneezing/coughing all over the place. So lets say he was spreading the bug the most around the 23rd-25th. The people who caught it at that point, wont be showing symptoms for up to 2 weeks. That just so happens to be around.. now. I think the next 3-5 days will be much more telling for determining how easily this one spreads on a ship. Remember, they're not testing every individual on board. You might start having a whole new batch of people becoming symptomatic as they're reaching the end of the incubation period. We'll also see if those who have already tested positive, transmitted it to the people in their state room, and if (hopefully not) we start seeing transmission through the hvac system between staterooms. I think a lot of these questions will be answered in the coming few days.

Edit: Another way to think about this.. on a week-long cruise, you would likely not even start showing symptoms until ~a week after you got off the cruise, if the current assessment of incubation period, etc.. are correct.

 

[Starwind]

All from before the quarantine? Or are people somehow being exposed in their rooms?

I haven't seen anywhere that says.

The first batch of positives, the 64, were out of a sample of only 279 of the guests -- those who had symptoms and close contacts of those who did.

Presumably the additional 6 were people who later showed symptoms and maybe some of their close contacts, but I haven't seen reporting that actually explains.

So far I don't think they think it can spread through the ventilation system. As MarkLT1 noted, the coming days will answer a lot of questions about how something like this spreads on a cruise ship, plus may help answer some questions about this specific bug. There will be a lot of epidemiological and other data for some enterprising scientists to study that hopefully will be able to contribute some helpful information in the end.

ETA: And then there is a case like Alan Steele, who is/was a passenger on the ship who tested positive and is now in hospital in Japan but is not showing any symptoms: https://www.expressandstar.com/news...le-could-be-released-from-hospital-this-week/ as he puts it " "I am in an isolation room and have become their lab rat as doctor confused as I have no symptoms and tests all say I am healthy apart from having virus." ". His wife Wendy is still on the ship in quarantine.

 

[Starwind]

Per the NY Times, of the last cohort of 6:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/world/asia/japan-ship-coronavirus.html
"That afternoon, the captain announced over the intercom that six more people — five of them crew members — had tested positive for the virus. "

also

"
Passengers have been speculating that the virus could be transmitted through the ship’s air ventilation system. Some shared their concerns with the United States Embassy in Tokyo.

On Sunday, the embassy sent all 428 American passengers a letter from a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention official, who said the center “has no current evidence to suggest that the virus spreads between rooms on a ship through the air-handling system.”

A spokesperson for Princess Cruises said the ship was equipped with a filtration system “that meets the standards and is comparable to those found in land-based hotels, resorts and casinos.”
"

 

[Lisa F]

I definitely wouldn't look at it like that at this point. What you need to remember about noro and flu, is that their incubation time is much shorter- ~2 days for noro and 2-4 days for the flu. This coronavirus looks to have a 5-14 day incubation period, so lets say the average is ~10 days. The individual brought it on board on the 20th, left the ship on the 25th. We also dont know how easily this bug spreads when you're asymptomatic, but if it is like most of these bugs, it is likely much easier to spread when you're sneezing/coughing all over the place. So lets say he was spreading the bug the most around the 23rd-25th. The people who caught it at that point, wont be showing symptoms for up to 2 weeks. That just so happens to be around.. now. I think the next 3-5 days will be much more telling for determining how easily this one spreads on a ship. Remember, they're not testing every individual on board. You might start having a whole new batch of people becoming symptomatic as they're reaching the end of the incubation period. We'll also see if those who have already tested positive, transmitted it to the people in their state room, and if (hopefully not) we start seeing transmission through the hvac system between staterooms. I think a lot of these questions will be answered in the coming few days.

Edit: Another way to think about this.. on a week-long cruise, you would likely not even start showing symptoms until ~a week after you got off the cruise, if the current assessment of incubation period, etc.. are correct.

If 10x the number of people come down with it, it will be a concern for those who are exposed to people who have been exposed. Japan is a heck of a lot closer than Florida is to "ground zero" of this virus.

That exposure is highly unlikely for a DCL cruise at this point (unless someone lies and other checks in place fail) and 60 out of 3700 is far from an uncontrollable epidemic. I stand by my statement that there is no real cause for worry here. If in another few days the count increases from 70 to 700 and people on that ship start dying from it, I will amend my statement about it being something to worry about. Right now it is not, for all intents and purposes, something to worry about for DCL cruisers.

 

[smmco]

If 10x the number of people come down with it, it will be a concern for those who are exposed to people who have been exposed. Japan is a heck of a lot closer than Florida is to "ground zero" of this virus.

That exposure is highly unlikely for a DCL cruise at this point (unless someone lies and other checks in place fail) and 60 out of 3700 is far from an uncontrollable epidemic. I stand by my statement that there is no real cause for worry here. If in another few days the count increases from 70 to 700 and people on that ship start dying from it, I will amend my statement about it being something to worry about. Right now it is not, for all intents and purposes, something to worry about for DCL cruisers.

I just got off a cruise. I think if I was cruising in the next month with what I know now I’d cancel. I’m not afraid of getting the virus I’m more afraid of the cruise lines or cdc doing something crazy like quarantining the ship. I think what they are doing to passengers on princess is inhumane. It’s seems like they are being used as science experiment.

 

[Gentry2004]

I just got off a cruise. I think if I was cruising in the next month with what I know now I’d cancel. I’m not afraid of getting the virus I’m more afraid of the cruise lines or cdc doing something crazy like quarantining the ship. I think what they are doing to passengers on princess is inhumane. It’s seems like they are being used as science experiment.

They should have let those 70+ infected people scatter to the wind infecting who knows who, who knows where?

 

[MarkLT1]

If 10x the number of people come down with it, it will be a concern for those who are exposed to people who have been exposed. Japan is a heck of a lot closer than Florida is to "ground zero" of this virus.

That exposure is highly unlikely for a DCL cruise at this point (unless someone lies and other checks in place fail) and 60 out of 3700 is far from an uncontrollable epidemic. I stand by my statement that there is no real cause for worry here. If in another few days the count increases from 70 to 700 and people on that ship start dying from it, I will amend my statement about it being something to worry about. Right now it is not, for all intents and purposes, something to worry about for DCL cruisers.

I agree with you 100% that the current risk to cruises going out of US ports is extremely low. All I was pointing out is that assuming the infection rate is low because only 70/3000 people are infected, is not necessarily the case. At this point it could be 70, 700 or even more. One of the reasons cruise lines (and governments) are being so cautious about this particular bug is that 1) we still don't know a whole lot about it, 2) there are some alarming red flags such as the PRC now claiming they have evidence that it is airborne, and 3) with the long incubation period, it is extremely hard to tell the true spread of the virus right now.

Would I be concerned to sail out of a US port today? Not really. Would I be concerned in 4-6 weeks? Well that would depend on how the US cases grow. If in a couple of weeks we start seeing exponential growth curves of infected individuals in the US similar to how the January numbers for China evolved.. Well then I'll start getting concerned. Seeing as I am going on a cruise in about 8 weeks, I am very much hoping that the above scenario does not end up playing out. As with so many things, time will tell.

 

[QueenElinor]

I'm not planning a trip on the DCL, but I did notice that when I called in to change a flight through Chase Travel Services today, they had a special line set up for cruise ship cancellations. Also. I'm a subscriber to MedJet and they emailed a notice that they wouldn't be able to retrieve anyone from China and surrounding nations. That is rather extreme for them, their usual selling point is that they'll bring you home anytime, from anywhere, if you're sick.

The #of cases on the Diamond Princess is about 136 now. I've read various sources, but it may have been spread either through the canteen or plumbing. I've been concerned from the start that keeping these passengers aboard the ship was not a good move. Hope they get the rest of them off that ship and quarantined somewhere else while they are tested.

 

[Dreams&wishes]

60 more people infected today!!!!

 

[Gentry2004]

60 more people infected today!!!!

Wow, so either the incubation period is extremely long, or people are still being actively infected. I hope it’s the former.

 

[smmco]

They should have let those 70+ infected people scatter to the wind infecting who knows who, who knows where?

The infected people were taken to the hospital. You have to read. I guess holding thousands of people prisoner on a ship is OK. It’s like something out of one of thosebad Hollywood end of the world movies.

 

[Starwind]

Depending on the media report, 60 or 65 or 66 new cases have been ID'd on board. Total now in the 130's.

Per CBC (https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-feb-10-1.5457919):

" Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said the Japanese government was considering testing all 3,711 passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess, which would require them to remain aboard until results are available. Health authorities are scrambling to deliver medicine requested by more than 600 passengers. "

Also, the WHO tweeted about the ship yesterday:

 

[Starwind]

Wow, so either the incubation period is extremely long, or people are still being actively infected. I hope it’s the former.

The incubation period is thought to be 2 to 14 days depending on the person. They are still within that period. The known first infected person left the ship last Tuesday.

See https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html

" CDC believes at this time that symptoms of 2019-nCoV may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 after exposure. This is based on what has been seen previously as the incubation period of MERS viruses. "

 

[Silvermist999]

Depending on the media report, 60 or 65 or 66 new cases have been ID'd on board. Total now in the 130's.

Per CBC (https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-feb-10-1.5457919):

" Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said the Japanese government was considering testing all 3,711 passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess, which would require them to remain aboard until results are available. Health authorities are scrambling to deliver medicine requested by more than 600 passengers. "

Also, the WHO tweeted about the ship yesterday:

View attachment 472559

I thought I had read somewhere they had tested everyone on that ship and people were just waiting for results. Maybe they are only testing those that are symptomatic. And they know those that are non symptomatic can also be infected. The last thing they want is someone to walk off that ship on the 14th day untested, but carrying this virus.

 

[Adventurelawyer]

I'm not planning a trip on the DCL, but I did notice that when I called in to change a flight through Chase Travel Services today, they had a special line set up for cruise ship cancellations. Also. I'm a subscriber to MedJet and they emailed a notice that they wouldn't be able to retrieve anyone from China and surrounding nations. That is rather extreme for them, their usual selling point is that they'll bring you home anytime, from anywhere, if you're sick.

The #of cases on the Diamond Princess is about 136 now. I've read various sources, but it may have been spread either through the canteen or plumbing. I've been concerned from the start that keeping these passengers aboard the ship was not a good move. Hope they get the rest of them off that ship and quarantined somewhere else while they are tested.

We also use Medjet. I too find it significant that Medjet won’t extract from China, however, if you consider thay use 3rd party chartered aircraft to do their repatriations, its not terribly surprising. If you can’t get the pilots to fly or the clearance to land, how do you get there?

in terms of spread, its likely they were infected days ago. Thats the reason they are locked down in their rooms. They either picked it up in port or from the infected patient in ship as its fecal oral and droplet transmission, and are just now popping symptoms or positive results. This isn’t coming from the water supply or the vents and having them anywhere on land would have further spread it to the local population.

 

[Starwind]

The infected people were taken to the hospital. You have to read. I guess holding thousands of people prisoner on a ship is OK. It’s like something out of one of thosebad Hollywood end of the world movies.

Quarantine of suspect persons is a pubic health measure that has been considered valid for centuries, worldwide. It is rarely used on a large scale, especially forced quarantine. Maritime quarantine laws have also existed for some time and are in addition to the laws of local authorities.

They have now had multiple tranches of infected passengers. Separated by days. So if they had taken off the first 70 infected [which they did] and then let everyone else go, the 66 ID's yesterday would have been among the ones "let go", able to then spread it in the community. That is why they are all in quarantine until the incubation period (14 days) is over [except for close contacts of people who show up as infected during the incubation period, whose 14 day clock will restart].

See: https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/quarantine-stations-us.html

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/aboutlawsregulationsquarantineisolation.html
Every nation or nearly so has a variation of quarantine laws at the national level, and many have additional legal provisions at other levels of government.

See also WHO International Health Regulations, (IHR), which WHO member countries agree to abide by. https://www.who.int/csr/ihr/WHA58-en.pdf especially sections article 27, 28, 31, 32, 40

See also https://www.cdc.gov/globalhealth/ihr/index.html and https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4922046/

 

[Starwind]

I thought I had read somewhere they had tested everyone on that ship and people were just waiting for results. Maybe they are only testing those that are symptomatic. And they know those that are non symptomatic can also be infected. The last thing they want is someone to walk off that ship on the 14th day untested, but carrying this virus.

No. They first tested 279 of the passengers, which at the time were those who had symptoms and their close contacts. Out of that batch came the first 70 infected. Since then they have tested those who have newly emerging symptoms (and presumably also their close contacts). That has given them this new batch of 60-66 but it is not known how many people were tested to get that #. They have NOT tested everyone on the ship, rather they have given everyone a thermometer and instructed them to check their temp daily and if it is over a specified amount to report it to the medical centre.

Per media reporting the Japanese government is now considering testing everyone on board.