Our 4th FP+ of the day...

[heyitsmejosh]

Disney has to hold some fast passes back for day before or they will anger their most valuable customers locals/annual passholders who dont plan trips that far out. if all the good fast passes are taken 30 or 60 days out the locals who plan their trips the day before/few days out are going to start getting very angry.

 

[magicbob]

I kind of like this idea of releasing them little by little.

Employing "fuzzy logic," I would probably come to the same conclusion.

 

[magicbob]

Of course they're "holding back" fastpasses. But so many people are talking abou this as if there's a guy in a room somewhere with a computer putting in and taking out fastpasses.

Like everything else Disney does, this is most likely controlled by computers based on a huge algorhythm taking into account anticipated attendance, historical usage, ongoing usage, number of people who reserve, change, don't show up. They even track levels of crowds in different areas of the parks and have ways to balance out crowd levels so perhaps even that is taken into account. And as a day goes on and they see how capacity and waits are at any given moment the computer can adjust on the fly perhaps adding some extra slots.

The truth is the manner in which this is being done is FAR beyond the comprehension of anyone on this board and while we can guess some of what goes into it - it's far more complicated than that.

The thing is... what you describe sounds like a rational hypothesis, but a lot of people are of the opinion that what you've described is FAR beyond the comprehension of anyone at Disney IT!

 

[clsteve]

If hold back for day of is occurring, wouldn't we expect to see people getting iced out during pre-booking on rides like TSMM*, or do you think tiering mitigates?

Right now, it's mitigated by several things:

It's now a reservation system, up to 60 days out. Most of us on this board are going to reserve as soon as we can. So, where we were locked out on that day in Park if we didn't get there early enough, we now have the ability to pick which day(s) and times of our multi-day trip TSMM works for us and shift our sched around it (a big positive). By default, that's going to cut down on the "I can't get TSMM at all!" posts. However, we are seeing it for a much lower capacity attraction, already (A&E).

Also, it's early in the process, still. Summer's coming. Let's see the reports from the last minute trippers to get a feel for it. Capacity is still capacity.

 

[Planogirl]

Fair or not fair, it is what it is....
You'll take what you get and be happy with it.....
Or you won't be happy with it, and complain about never going back, and then you will.
Be glad you aren't all forced to stand in an hour long line for everything, like we did when I first went in 1975.
We stood in line for SM for an hour without even thinking about it. Its just the way it was.
And now this is just the way it is.
DEAL WITH IT.

Some haven't gone back. I know of a few myself.

Plus these forums would be pretty dull if everyone just "dealt with it".

 

[Planogirl]

I think that well organized people have a decided advantage in most areas of their lives, and vacations are certainly no different - but that doesn't have anything to do with fairness.

Fairness doesn't really exist in the world, certainly not at Disney. If it did, everyone could stay at the Poly and eat at any restaurant that they wished for every meal.

This notion of fairness in a themepark blows my mind. Nothing is or every will be completely fair. Those who have more money or more ambition or in some cases more sense will end up with more.

In a themepark, tradition always said that those who get up earlier and also plan more will get more. It appears that Disney is trying to do away with that and set up their own system of "fairness".

 

[magicbob]

Of course they're "holding back" fastpasses. But so many people are talking abou this as if there's a guy in a room somewhere with a computer putting in and taking out fastpasses.

Personally, I think it's a guy with a green visor sitting in a smoke-filled room deep within the bowels of the utilidors, laughing maniacally as he enters the keystrokes that will display nothing but Captain EO (even though only half of the Soarin' slots have actually been taken).

 

[Planogirl]

To someone like me who hates to plan, this adds to my stress levels. I feel like potentially the only way to ride certain things is to keep checking and rechecking at the kiosks and I hate that. If I want to ride Splash Mountain but nothing at a decent time is available, how do I know if something won't be available in another hour? Do I take something that I want less just in case or do I hold out for Splash Mountain?

Maybe I do like to plan a little more than I thought but just don't like surprises or uncertainty. I'll be watching everything closely to see if availability looks good for things in general.

 

[clsteve]

The thing is... what you describe sounds like a rational hypothesis, but a lot of people are of the opinion that what you've described is FAR beyond the comprehension of anyone at Disney IT!

It definitely is- which is why they didn't do it.

No company does. They bring in the big guns who are the only ones who can do it. like EDS, Accenture, IBM, or Oracle (maybe CapGemini). If they outsourced overseas, an InfoSpace (India) might be it.

It's no different than when WDW or any other Theme Park builds a new rollercoaster every 5-10 years. They bring in an expert company to do it. They can't afford to have those highly trained, highly specialized (and incredibly expensive) individuals sitting around twiddling their thumbs (and getting paid) until the next project 10 years down the road.

And, in some ways, building a coaster is much, much easier because it's bound by the Laws of Physics. Unfortunately, complex data warehouses are bound by the whims, thoughts, ideas and requirements of Exec's and end-users. And it makes it so much more enjoyable.....

 

[wisblue]

This notion of fairness in a themepark blows my mind. Nothing is or every will be completely fair. Those who have more money or more ambition or in some cases more sense will end up with more.

In a themepark, tradition always said that those who get up earlier and also plan more will get more. It appears that Disney is trying to do away with that and set up their own system of "fairness".

It would appear that Universal beat them to it with their front of the line passes for their resort guests and others who are willing to pay for them.

 

[donnawine]

That has been a concern for a lot of people since this began. Especially now with this latest "test".

Yea, I sometimes feel guilty booking FP bc I know I only want it for 1-2 rides (live in Florida and have AP's). I always worry someone else who wanted that ride during their once in a lifetime vacation can't ride it bc of the mandatory 3 FP rule.

 

[dbramer]

I know, but I don't think it's much of a stretch to think Disney might be releasing some during the day also, especially since they know we are watching. It might not always be the case going forward, but I have a feeling this totally rare occurrence of TSMM fastpasses is just that, totally rare and contrived by Disney.

Please understand though I'm not bagging on it, I'm just saying.

I think FP+ has come a long way since back in Nov. and Feb. when I used it. I still don't like it as much as FP-, but I will adapt and survive.

Why do we all accept the words of one person as gospel when it is said that the passes are being held back and released throughout the day? With the current state of technology, isn't it possible that if throughput on a ride falls below a certain level that they would automatically release some FP's to bolster the attendance or to even out the crowds if they seem to be congregating in a certain park or attraction?

Disney tracks ride times and throughput numbers like a heroin junkie tracking their next hit.....that is why FP+ was implemented in the first place. Disney can control the crowds not react to them now.

All the readers of this forum are looking for the Disney conspiracy all the time...

 

[maryj11]

To someone like me who hates to plan, this adds to my stress levels. I feel like potentially the only way to ride certain things is to keep checking and rechecking at the kiosks and I hate that. If I want to ride Splash Mountain but nothing at a decent time is available, how do I know if something won't be available in another hour? Do I take something that I want less just in case or do I hold out for Splash Mountain?

Maybe I do like to plan a little more than I thought but just don't like surprises or uncertainty. I'll be watching everything closely to see if availability looks good for things in general.

Well you could take the time you get and then go on the MDE app and try to change it to a different time or a different ride.

 

[OtherScott]

Of course they're "holding back" fastpasses. But so many people are talking abou this as if there's a guy in a room somewhere with a computer putting in and taking out fastpasses.

Like everything else Disney does, this is most likely controlled by computers based on a huge algorhythm taking into account anticipated attendance, historical usage, ongoing usage, number of people who reserve, change, don't show up. They even track levels of crowds in different areas of the parks and have ways to balance out crowd levels so perhaps even that is taken into account. And as a day goes on and they see how capacity and waits are at any given moment the computer can adjust on the fly perhaps adding some extra slots.

The truth is the manner in which this is being done is FAR beyond the comprehension of anyone on this board and while we can guess some of what goes into it - it's far more complicated than that.

I think everyone here is pretty clear that HAL is doing all of the thinking based on programmed parameters.

The discussion is merely how much HAL is programmed to think.

My point is that as of today, I don't think HAL is holding back because I don't think Disney is pushed up against capacity limits. They certainly don't appear to be there yet on a prebooking level, and certainly not on a redemption level. This is not the same as saying Disney is populating every guests' MDE with every available time slot.

That said, my opinion is that FP+ will be overwhelmingly guest driven and transparent because it can be. What I think I know about human nature leads me to this conclusion - Disney will get near 100% redemption rate from those who used FP- and be lucky to get 2 out of 3 from those who previously did not.

Once redemption rates become predictable, booking gets easier.

HAL, or the Guest Experience Management System and Method as he likes to be called, will provide advantages (dining, golf and spas) to certain guests, and FPs to optimize the scheduling of these other revenue grabs.

 

[rastuso]

It would appear that Universal beat them to it with their front of the line passes for their resort guests and others who are willing to pay for them.

Universal is following the well accepted axiom of "Pay more, Get more".

Disney does the same things with EMH.

With FP+, you can pay more for a GF room, schedule your rides months in advance, along with your overpriced meals.

And THEN, see Cletus the slack jawed yokel, who's staying at the Walmart parking lot, and bought a used ticket from a scalper late last night, get a TSMM FP+ at a kiosk in front of you, and then you get offered nothing but Captain EO.

-J

 

[heyitsmejosh]

And THEN, see Cletus the slack jawed yokel, who's staying at the Walmart parking lot, and bought a used ticket from a scalper late last night, get a TSMM FP+ at a kiosk in front of you, and then you get offered nothing but Captain EO.

how would you get captain EO if you are at hollywood studios?

 

[Jennasis]

That's a little long for a slogan. Or a tattoo.

I've got a special place all picked out for it...plenty of room.

 

[mickeysgirl17]

I as a CM have been told:
"While all additional selections must be made at a FastPass+ kiosk at this time, Guests will be able to view and modify their additional selections on their mobile device using My Disney Experience."

"At this time". Maybe this is hope we will be able to make the 4th and so on from our phones instead of kiosks at some point...hopefully.

No no, I am sure TheHub is correct and they are holding for day of ... the proposition made was that they were releasing them throughout the day, not just at park opening.

So, I guess this means WDW is the new Vegas? FP+ roulette! If you try to get your 4th FP+ at 3:55 pm you can get Muppets, but at 3:57pm you can get TSMM. You never know when more "choice" FPs will be dumped into the available pool. This new interactive guessing game is fun for the whole family!

It's looking that way! I wonder if more players = more bets which = more odds of a win ..... So if I line up to check and have DD line up two places behind me to check, all I have to do is yell "Score!" if we get something good and she knows to leave the line and come join me as we head out to ride TT for the third time that day. OR, if they offer me Turtle Talk or Captain EO, I can make a face at her while she tries to beat my lottery outcome.

On a side note, I've always wanted to go to Vegas and figured it won't happen until DD is much older. Perhaps my wish has come true. So I was wrong. There is an up side to FP+

You guys are too funny but I really think there is truth to this. This has to be what is happening. It would explain why some people are able to get a fp to an attraction while others couldn't. You have to kind of guess when you should line up at the kiosk and hope you lined up at the right time to get what you want. Either someone cancelled and the OP was very very lucky or Disney is holding back and releasing throughout the day. I can't imagine they are releasing in the morning day of and still having availability for TSMM at 4pm. Its unheard of.

Unless you went online at 60, 30 and/or 7 days out and found none at the time you wanted because Disney decided to hold all of the 6 PM FP+s to released them at 3:00 PM the day of. Don't you think that if you were online at 60 days out that you deserved to have that spot you wanted?

I am not trying to say that I think this is happening, just that Disney holding any FP+s back to release at any later point really seems to be more unfair than the paper FPs. Everything was released at the beginning of the day, everyone saw the same thing and everyone pulled from the same pool.

I think it is happening and its really not fair. This really doesn't benefit on-site guests at all.

True, but someone will miss out no matter what. You're suggesting "planners" get all of the good stuff and spontaneous visitors get none. I'm saying that a little more balanced is okay... planners get some, spontaneous visitors get some. And nobody is excluded from being the beneficiary of the random luck... it could just was well benefit you or I as anyone else.

Well, that's what sucks about fp+. Disney is kind of forcing everyone to plan now. If you chose not to, you can't complain later when you get there and there's nothing left. Its kind of like not making your ADR's in advance and then going to a popular restaurant to find out they can't seat you. Only difference with the fastpasses is Disney is holding back up to 40% for day of. This means that if you didn't make your fp reservations in advance, you still have a chance to get what you want at a kiosk, but a person who is staying onsite may have not gotten what they wanted in advance because Disney decided to hold it for day of.

For people who say they could get everything they want in advance, I think this depends on time of year, party size and crowds for their trip. I'm interested in knowing how this is going to work out during busier times of the year.

Some haven't gone back. I know of a few myself.

I changed my plans. WDW is out and DCL is in.

To someone like me who hates to plan, this adds to my stress levels. I feel like potentially the only way to ride certain things is to keep checking and rechecking at the kiosks and I hate that. If I want to ride Splash Mountain but nothing at a decent time is available, how do I know if something won't be available in another hour? Do I take something that I want less just in case or do I hold out for Splash Mountain?

Yeah, your exactly right. Being glued to a smartphone and having to keep going back to kiosks is going to be a huge pain, but I think it will be necessary as much as we don't like having to do it.

 

[mom2rtk]

Universal is following the well accepted axiom of "Pay more, Get more".

Disney does the same things with EMH.

With FP+, you can pay more for a GF room, schedule your rides months in advance, along with your overpriced meals.

And THEN, see Cletus the slack jawed yokel, who's staying at the Walmart parking lot, and bought a used ticket from a scalper late last night, get a TSMM FP+ at a kiosk in front of you, and then you get offered nothing but Captain EO.

-J

how would you get captain EO if you are at hollywood studios?

Now THAT would be a glitch.

 

[PEC]

Universal is following the well accepted axiom of "Pay more, Get more".

Disney does the same things with EMH.

With FP+, you can pay more for a GF room, schedule your rides months in advance, along with your overpriced meals.

And THEN, see Cletus the slack jawed yokel, who's staying at the Walmart parking lot, and bought a used ticket from a scalper late last night, get a TSMM FP+ at a kiosk in front of you, and then you get offered nothing but Captain EO.

-J

Just keep in mind with FP-, if the return time was right at the end and the "Cletus" was in front of you and got the last FP before the final return time ran out, he still beat you. All the GF person could do is wait till EMH and then the "Cletus" could not get in the wait line.