Orlando Sentinel article on theme park normalization in 2021..

[havoc315]

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/bus...0201214-5snhu3fvpnd5jhhp33ddxvhr7q-story.html
Some highlights from their perspective:

"By the end of 2021, Boyd said Disney and the other theme parks could face a new problem: Not being able to find enough employees to hire. "

"But Dennis Spiegel expects 2021 will be “another bump in the road” as he predicts the industry won’t fully bounce back for two more years. "

"By spring, Boyd said he predicts the parks’ social distancing rules will relax, allowing fireworks and other entertainment to “reawaken.”"

“2021, especially the first half of 2021, I think it’s going be a story of things becoming increasingly more normal,” Boyd said.

Just an assortment of analyst and journalist opinions -- not necessarily any more educated than the guesses on this board.
To fall back on cliche, "nobody really knows" -- But at least some who follow the industry closely think that there will be a move towards normalization in the first half of 2021, but it will take much longer for full crowds to return.
Again, I wouldn't take any of this to the bank.
They quote Jim Hill -- I had an argument with Jim Hill on twitter back in Spring 2020... I was saying that when Disney re-opened, there would be no fireworks, no character meets, etc. Jim was disagreeing with me, arguing that those things drove so much profit that Disney would never cancel them. for any long period of time.

Here was my April 4th conversation with Jim Hill:

 

[gharter]

I expect them to have problems rehiring staff for the signature restaurants that have been closed (most will have other jobs).
By the time they are ready to add more cast members, many of them, most likely, will have found other jobs. Will they be willing to return? No idea.

 

[CampbellzSoup]

I expect them to have problems rehiring staff for the signature restaurants that have been closed (most will have other jobs).
By the time they are ready to add more cast members, many of them, most likely, will have found other jobs. Will they be willing to return? No idea.

college program?

 

[Skippyboo]

It’s probably not until Spring when the general population can get the vaccine and then what percentage actually takes it. Looking at when the hotel opening for Beach Club and Wilderness Lodge, it’s not until summer. I wonder about all the plexiglass installed. I could see them take it away from ride vehicles but leaving it in the queues eventually.

 

[Jimmy Mouse]

Seems they want me to pay to view the article. Maybe someone can copy / paste it?

 

[gharter]

college program?

Big question, they had a lot of cast members in the college program. And when will the International Cast members be allowed to return?

 

[CampbellzSoup]

Big question, they had a lot of cast members in the college program. And when will the International Cast members be allowed to return?

wow I didn’t even think of the international ones...crazy how this whole thing ravaged through our lives.

I just can’t wait to take my masks off jn the park again! Hopefully next year!

 

[New Mouse]

They were struggling to get qualified employees before the pandemic. I was wondering with Epic Universe and all the local competition growing, where they were going to find staff.

In recent years the hiring standards have dropped dramatically.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

college program?

There was just and update from Disney this week that the college program is still indefinitely suspended ... Not to say it can't restart but I assume this take spring semester off the table so earliest would be summer but more likely fall semester or even really spring '22 as next fall might be colleges and stuff just trying to figure out what "normal" there looks like and might not be ready for a partner program type thing

https://blogmickey.com/2020/12/disney-college-program-and-internships-remain-suspended-indefinitely/

 

[yulilin3]

There was just and update from Disney this week that the college program is still indefinitely suspended ... Not to say it can't restart but I assume this take spring semester off the table so earliest would be summer but more likely fall semester or even really spring '22 as next fall might be colleges and stuff just trying to figure out what "normal" there looks like and might not be ready for a partner program type thing

https://blogmickey.com/2020/12/disney-college-program-and-internships-remain-suspended-indefinitely/

with the Flamingo Crossing housing already done I expect CP to come back for the Fall unless something else happens (covid-wise)

 

[MickeyWaffles]

with the Flamingo Crossing housing already done I expect CP to come back for the Fall unless something else happens (covid-wise)

Right. I think they’ll bring them back sooner than I originally thought.

Even if they don’t require all CMs to be vaccinated, I would think they would require vaccination to live in the Disney provided shared housing though. Those are pretty close quarters. So may be dependent on vaccine access to the masses.

Similar to how some colleges now require the meningitis vaccine to live in the dorms, etc.

 

[ElyseInWonderland]

My thought is, I think folks are generally having an OK time right now being required to wear masks at WDW/other parks. But it's December.

If for some reason the mask requirement is still hanging around by the Spring/Summer, I think it's going to be hard to convince people to come spend the money to go to the parks. Masks outdoors in humid Florida is going to be a tough go.

(FWIW, I'm a mask-wearer anytime I'm in public.)

 

[GrantDB]

As a UK visitor, I've got my deposit down for a CSR trip mid August, if the mask mandate is still up, we'll cancel and go to Europe, for 1/4 of the price.

I appreciate no-one wants a mask debate, but it is the biggest drawback for us flying over. Fingers crossed on vaccines etc!

 

[skeeter31]

My thought it, I think folks are generally having an OK time right now being required to wear masks at WDW/other parks. But it's December.

If for some reason the mask requirement is still hanging around by the Spring/Summer, I think it's going to be hard to convince people to come spend the money to go to the parks. Masks outdoors in humid Florida is going to be a tough go.

(FWIW, I'm a mask-wearer anytime I'm in public.)

Not to start up the mask debate again, but they went through a summer of masks. People got through it. We went and dealt with it. It is what it is.

 

[White_Rabbit18]

It will be hard to convince people to do another year of masks. I imagine by late spring if we are lucky 30% of the population will be vaccinated. Definitely not enough for people to forget masks and social distancing. If you can’t convince people to wear a mask when over 300,000 died then there is no way people will want to do it with the vaccine

 

[jlwhitney]

And can’t forget Fauci and The Who said today that social distancing ,
Restrictions and masks will be around into the second half of 2021 and beyond ......

 

[ford91exploder]

Disney will have kiosks replacing many cast members by then.

Of course many will be smashed when they will be unable to help the guest and say in a digital voice ‘Have a Magical Day’.

That will be more than sufficient to drive a guest whose waited an hour to get to kiosk over the edge.

I suspect the employees Disney wants to re-hire will have moved on to organizations which appreciate them and they will tell Disney to ‘get stuffed’

 

[cgattis]

Of course many will be smashed when they will be unable to help the guest and say in a digital voice ‘Have a Magical Day’.

That will be more than sufficient to drive a guest whose waited an hour to get to kiosk over the edge.

When it’s 90+ degrees and I’m wearing a mask and this happens, I can totally agree with your assessment.

 

[mshanson3121]

It’s probably not until Spring when the general population can get the vaccine and then what percentage actually takes it. Looking at when the hotel opening for Beach Club and Wilderness Lodge, it’s not until summer. I wonder about all the plexiglass installed. I could see them take it away from ride vehicles but leaving it in the queues eventually.

I really don't see Disney relaxing social distancing rules, mask rules etc... until it's announced we've hit "herd" immunity stage with vaccination, which isn't expected to happen until summer in the US.

 

[mshanson3121]

If for some reason the mask requirement is still hanging around by the Spring/Summer, I think it's going to be hard to convince people to come spend the money to go to the parks. Masks outdoors in humid Florida is going to be a tough go.

(FWIW, I'm a mask-wearer anytime I'm in public.)

Not to start up the mask debate again, but they went through a summer of masks. People got through it. We went and dealt with it. It is what it is.

And people didn't drop dead from it either, as was predicted... lol.

My prediction is masks will be around permanently in some form. Though not required as they are now in many places, but they will become a far more common thing in culture after this. Much as they have been for years in places in Asia etc... I know our province has already said that moving forward, even once things are back to "normal", masks will be required (by law) to be worn in public when you are sick/exhibiting symptoms. So, if you choose to go to work or grocery shopping etc... with your cold (etc...) you'll be required to wear a mask. Which to be honest, isn't necessarily a bad thing.

So then this makes me wonder, once things are "back to normal" (which we all know is not going to look like our old normal), do you think Disney will keep guest screening practices? Do you think moving forward they'll deny entry to those exhibiting symptoms/a fever? If not, will they require a mask if you have symptoms?