Orange County Commissioners vote & rumor leaks...

[ChipnDale79]

I'm just worried that they're about to hit their peak draw power. How many more people can they draw in? How many people can afford or want to go on Resort destination vacations? When does Orlando hit the same peak it hit in the late 1990s and mid 2000s?

Orlando has been undergoing one of the most aggressive expansion campaigns in its history. Not only is Universal building, but everyone's building at the same time. Imagine if this park 3 comes out of the gate with even 10 million new guests and the other two lose millions at the same time. We have a repeat of the DAK situation. A chain of events that led to the toxic environment of cheap investments that aren't meaningful at Disney. Imagine Universal Florida having its own stall mid-air. Disney is being cautious, perhaps to their detriment, in Disneyland. I'm thinking that they're more prudent. We'll have to see though.

Even the much celebrated Tokyo Disney Sea lowered attendance growth at its companion and it took years before margins and growth returned to pre Tokyo Disney Sea levels. WDW is still feeling the effects of DAK. WDS sent Euro Disney into hard times. Of course through time each of those investments ended up adding value. Yet it took growing pains, and growing pains lead to dissatisfaction with the idea of new investments.

What could the landscape look like by the early 2020s? A Magic Kingdom fully upgraded with a new nighttime spectacular, parade, a New Frontierland, and maybe more. A completely refocused DHS that should have opened up Toy Story Land, Star Wars, a 3rd Phase, maybe a 4th in development, and new Great Movie Ride inbound. A DAK that will have vibrance and new life, with Avatar, a new Nighttime Spectacular, Harambe Marketplace, Safari Upgrades, and newly refurbished park environments. And Epcot that will probably be even more painful then today, though hopefully upgrades considered. That doesn't even consider how Universal intends to be upgrading and replacing their Marvel, Lost Continent, Toon Lagoon, and Kid Zone areas. Nor does that even begin to take into account the effects of all the other theme park operators investing.

This is just without precedent. I want to believe they'll pull this off smoothly, but there are glaring risks. This is make or break.

Nintendo had been rumored to go elsewhere, but yes it could theoretically come to Park 3. Jurassic World would be interesting, but would likely necessitate the closure of the existing attraction based off that IP. Lord of the Rings would be a true dark horse. I wonder if they can swing that. I still can't help but feel they're scraping the bottom of the barrel here.

This to me is Comcast saying, we aren't going to be the destination that people say "we went to Universal also while at Disney" anymore. This to me says they are fully going after Disney and trying to take guests off of Disney's property for their full vacation and onto Universals.

If its done right, with the right attractions, they are going to be able to pull some customers from Disney. Will people still go to disney and maybe only spend a day or two at Universal? Of course.

But how many people will now go to Universal for a week and only spend a day or two at WDW to visit MK or another park?

I think you'll see more of that.

I hope this will force disney to offer a better product to their consumer.

If you only count Universal and WDW then we're talking about 7 major theme parks right beside each other. I will not visit all 7 parks in a weeks vacation. I'll choose one resort, and MAYBE spend a day or so at the other.


Universal has a ways to go, a long ways to go, but not nearly as far as they did 10 years go to catch up to Disney. Disney has competition.

 

[rteetz]

I'm just worried that they're about to hit their peak draw power. How many more people can they draw in? How many people can afford or want to go on Resort destination vacations? When does Orlando hit the same peak it hit in the late 1990s and mid 2000s?

Orlando has been undergoing one of the most aggressive expansion campaigns in its history. Not only is Universal building, but everyone's building at the same time. Imagine if this park 3 comes out of the gate with even 10 million new guests and the other two lose millions at the same time. We have a repeat of the DAK situation. A chain of events that led to the toxic environment of cheap investments that aren't meaningful at Disney. Imagine Universal Florida having its own stall mid-air. Disney is being cautious, perhaps to their detriment, in Disneyland. I'm thinking that they're more prudent. We'll have to see though.

Even the much celebrated Tokyo Disney Sea lowered attendance growth at its companion and it took years before margins and growth returned to pre Tokyo Disney Sea levels. WDW is still feeling the effects of DAK. WDS sent Euro Disney into hard times. Of course through time each of those investments ended up adding value. Yet it took growing pains, and growing pains lead to dissatisfaction with the idea of new investments.

What could the landscape look like by the early 2020s? A Magic Kingdom fully upgraded with a new nighttime spectacular, parade, a New Frontierland, and maybe more. A completely refocused DHS that should have opened up Toy Story Land, Star Wars, a 3rd Phase, maybe a 4th in development, and new Great Movie Ride inbound. A DAK that will have vibrance and new life, with Avatar, a new Nighttime Spectacular, Harambe Marketplace, Safari Upgrades, and newly refurbished park environments. And Epcot that will probably be even more painful then today, though hopefully upgrades considered. That doesn't even consider how Universal intends to be upgrading and replacing their Marvel, Lost Continent, Toon Lagoon, and Kid Zone areas. Nor does that even begin to take into account the effects of all the other theme park operators investing.

This is just without precedent. I want to believe they'll pull this off smoothly, but there are glaring risks. This is make or break.

Nintendo had been rumored to go elsewhere, but yes it could theoretically come to Park 3. Jurassic World would be interesting, but would likely necessitate the closure of the existing attraction based off that IP. Lord of the Rings would be a true dark horse. I wonder if they can swing that. I still can't help but feel they're scraping the bottom of the barrel here.

I agree with pretty much everything said. I think Universal is a three park destination. I don't know if they could do 4 parks like Disney. They would also need a lot of IP for more parks. What you said also goes along with Disney doing a 5th gate would cannibalize the other disney parks except for MK. This is really an interesting time to be a theme park fan.

 

[rteetz]

Universal has a ways to go, a long ways to go, but not nearly as far as they did 10 years go to catch up to Disney. Disney has competition.

This right here is why Comcast keeps pouring in the money.

 

[DDLand]

This to me is Comcast saying, we aren't going to be the destination that people say "we went to Universal also while at Disney" anymore. This to me says they are fully going after Disney and trying to take guests off of Disney's property for their full vacation and onto Universals.

If its done right, with the right attractions, they are going to be able to pull some customers from Disney. Will people still go to disney and maybe only spend a day or two at Universal? Of course.

But how many people will now go to Universal for a week and only spend a day or two at WDW to visit MK or another park?

I think you'll see more of that.

I hope this will force disney to offer a better product to their consumer.

If you only count Universal and WDW then we're talking about 7 major theme parks right beside each other. I will not visit all 7 parks in a weeks vacation. I'll choose one resort, and MAYBE spend a day or so at the other.


Universal has a ways to go, a long ways to go, but not nearly as far as they did 10 years go to catch up to Disney. Disney has competition.

I think you're fundamentally right. I said a while ago that Universal wants to be number one or at least very close to it. People who say otherwise don't realize how ambitious they are. I just don't know if they can turn Disney into an optional or secondary choice. That's the crux of the argument. Can it flip from the 5 days at Disney one day at Universal setup, to a 4 or 5 days at Universal 1 day at Disney. That was actually a possibility a couple years ago. It wasn't impossible to imagine people buying a one day ticket to MK and calling it quits at Disney. The other three parks in their current states are distinctly optional.


Star Wars and project Morpho changes that. Even arguably Frozen makes a difference. In a couple years any sane person in Orlando will have to see MK, SW, Hogwarts, and Diagon Alley. Avatar, RoL, and Disney Springs are the icing on the cake.

This is risky attempt to leap frog in front of Disney, and they'll probably be betting 2-3 Billion to do it. Can they do that? Will Disney let them? I'm not sure. This is far from a sure deal.

 

[ChipnDale79]

I think you're fundamentally right. I said a while ago that Universal wants to be number one or at least very close to it. People who say otherwise don't realize how ambitious they are. I just don't know if they can turn Disney into an optional or secondary choice. That's the crux of the argument. Can it flip from the 5 days at Disney one day at Universal setup, to a 4 or 5 days at Universal 1 day at Disney. That was actually a possibility a couple years ago. It wasn't impossible to imagine people buying a one day ticket to MK and calling it quits at Disney. The other three parks in their current states are distinctly optional.


Star Wars and project Morpho changes that. Even arguably Frozen makes a difference. In a couple years any sane person in Orlando will have to see MK, SW, Hogwarts, and Diagon Alley. Avatar, RoL, and Disney Springs are the icing on the cake.

This is risky attempt to leap frog in front of Disney, and they'll probably be betting 2-3 Billion to do it. Can they do that? Will Disney let them? I'm not sure. This is far from a sure deal.

Agree, to me, its good for the consumer.

This is going to require Disney to push themselves, maybe at some point they will have to fight for consumers with lower prices.

If anything, I hope this holds Disney in check so that they don't require you to sign over your first born child to visit their resort.

 

[DDLand]

I agree with pretty much everything said. I think Universal is a three park destination. I don't know if they could do 4 parks like Disney. They would also need a lot of IP for more parks. What you said also goes along with Disney doing a 5th gate would cannibalize the other disney parks except for MK. This is really an interesting time to be a theme park fan.

Isn't it? This reminds me of 1990s Disney, but Universal has a road map to lead them. They're building hotels, attractions, water parks, and even theme parks just like 1990s Disney. Back then, Disney hit a wall. Now Disney on the other hand is in a completely different stage of its life span. They have a great selection of attractions that are arguably outdated.

Franky if I were Disney and I was weighing spending 200-300 million on a Frontierland E-Ticket I'd earmark it for a new version of Peter Pan's Flight, Winnie the Pooh, Buzz Lightyear SRS, BTMRR, SM, and upgrades to the WDWRR. Focus on making what you've already got spectacular. Open the flood gates with enough money to make 1970s-90s attractions 2015 worthy. Trackless vehicles, new sets, upgraded effects, and new tracks. I think those classics need to be brought up to today's standards. Not replacements of course. Just total rethinking of what it means to one of those attractions.

 

[DDLand]

Agree, to me, its good for the consumer.

This is going to require Disney to push themselves, maybe at some point they will have to fight for consumers with lower prices.

If anything, I hope this holds Disney in check so that they don't require you to sign over your first born child to visit their resort.

The scary thing for me is it reminds me of an overly ambitious Disney in 1998. That ultimately led to lower prices. That was nice. It also led to a stale theme parks experience. It can go both ways.

 

[rteetz]

Isn't it? This reminds me of 1990s Disney, but Universal has a road map to lead them. They're building hotels, attractions, water parks, and even theme parks just like 1990s Disney. Back then, Disney hit a wall. Now Disney on the other hand is in a completely different stage of its life span. They have a great selection of attractions that are arguably outdated.

Franky if I were Disney and I was weighing spending 200-300 million on a Frontierland E-Ticket I'd earmark it for a new version of Peter Pan's Flight, Winnie the Pooh, Buzz Lightyear SRS, BTMRR, SM, and upgrades to the WDWRR. Focus on making what you've already got spectacular. Open the flood gates with enough money to make 1970s-90s attractions 2015 worthy. Trackless vehicles, new sets, upgraded effects, and new tracks. I think those classics need to be brought up to today's standards. Not replacements of course. Just total rethinking of what it means to one of those attractions.

If only Disney would do that. Disneyland would be more likely to do such. Taking rides out is just no something WDW likes to do unless they have to.

 

[ChipnDale79]

The scary thing for me is it reminds me of an overly ambitious Disney in 1998. That ultimately led to lower prices. That was nice. It also led to a stale theme parks experience. It can go both ways.

Yeah i understand that, but the difference between 98 and now is the competition. Competition doesn't really allow you to let things get stale.

I do agree that this needs to pay off for Universal, its a lot of money to spend, and if it works, it'll make both WDW and Universal better for all of us.

 

[DDLand]

If only Disney would do that. Disneyland would be more likely to do such. Taking rides out is just no something WDW likes to do unless they have to.

Wouldn't it be spectacular? I honestly am pretty satisfied with MK as it stands today on the roster front (crazy right?). They have a large, diverse, and just plain fun set of attractions. The problem lies when you compare Buzz Lightyear or Peter Pan's Flight to FJ or Transformers. They look like the outdated attractions they are. Not that I don't like the idea behind them. I do. I want Peter Pan's flight to be amazing. I know they can do it because they're doing it Shanghai.

They sort of did what I described at Disneyland in preparation for the 60th. Just not far enough in my view. They didn't bring new ride systems or completely updated sets. They're undoubtably better. Just not the best they can be.

Yeah i understand that, but the difference between 98 and now is the competition. Competition doesn't really allow you to let things get stale.

I do agree that this needs to pay off for Universal, its a lot of money to spend, and if it works, it'll make both WDW and Universal better for all of us.

To the contrary, IoA was regarded as a phenomenal theme park at opening. Yet all the same across the theme park space in Orlando we saw stagnation. Why? They'd hit their upper limit. The two will stop investing if they hit the saturation point.

 

[Planogirl]

Universal could also theoretically draw people who don't go to Orlando. If that happens I just hope that Orlando's infrastructure can handle it.

I see WDW as a four day destination right now with the bulk of the time going to MK. That is just themeparks. Time will tell if the additions will change that for DHS and AK. Maybe they'll each become a full day or even more but who knows? Epcot is sad and I see nothing to change that.

With Disney so stale, this might actually be the best time for Universal to roll the dice.

 

[rteetz]

Universal could also theoretically draw people who don't go to Orlando. If that happens I just hope that Orlando's infrastructure can handle it.

I see WDW as a four day destination right now with the bulk of the time going to MK. That is just themeparks. Time will tell if the additions will change that for DHS and AK. Maybe they'll each become a full day or even more but who knows? Epcot is sad and I see nothing to change that.

With Disney so stale, this might actually be the best time for Universal to roll the dice.

Four day? Interesting I've never spent less than 5 there and thought that wasn't enough time.

 

[dogdangling]

As a visitor from the UK I am actually really pumped up for all this development. We spent 14 nights in Orlando in May and our time was pretty much spilt 9 days at Disney (including water parks), 4 days at Universal and 1 rest day.

I do prefer Disney but if Uni are going to open a third gate I can see me spending more time there and slashing a couple of days off my Disney portion off the trip. Whatever happens the choices are going to be awesome and I cannot wait for announcements to come out.

 

[OldsDr]

I think you're fundamentally right. I said a while ago that Universal wants to be number one or at least very close to it. People who say otherwise don't realize how ambitious they are. I just don't know if they can turn Disney into an optional or secondary choice. That's the crux of the argument. Can it flip from the 5 days at Disney one day at Universal setup, to a 4 or 5 days at Universal 1 day at Disney. That was actually a possibility a couple years ago. It wasn't impossible to imagine people buying a one day ticket to MK and calling it quits at Disney. The other three parks in their current states are distinctly optional. ...

Maybe Disney will help them along with tiered prices, Go to Universal on WDW more expensive days and WDW on their less expensive days.

 

[DDLand]

Maybe Disney will help them along with tiered prices, Go to Universal on WDW more expensive days and WDW on their less expensive days.

That's interesting. This tiered pricing scheme should be essentially seasonal. So it shouldn't be like one day they're 100 and the next 125. I think they'll release a schedule and price based off of past results. If you can fall on one of those changes that could be a prospect. Typically Universal has followed any Disney price increases with their own. We'll see if they do that this time of offer a greater value proposition. This really depends, but that's something that certainly could play a factor in determining decisions.

 

[LeeAndRobin]

That's interesting. This tiered pricing scheme should be essentially seasonal. So it shouldn't be like one day they're 100 and the next 125.

Wrong. That's exactly what the schedules that were in the recent survey from Disney on tiered pricing showed. Weekends year-round were typically higher than weekdays. So yes, it IS "like one day they're at 100 and the next 125"...

 

[HopperFan]

That's interesting. This tiered pricing scheme should be essentially seasonal. So it shouldn't be like one day they're 100 and the next 125. I think they'll release a schedule and price based off of past results. If you can fall on one of those changes that could be a prospect. Typically Universal has followed any Disney price increases with their own. We'll see if they do that this time of offer a greater value proposition. This really depends, but that's something that certainly could play a factor in determining decisions.

Wrong. That's exactly what the schedules that were in the recent survey from Disney on tiered pricing showed. Weekends year-round were typically higher than weekdays. So yes, it IS "like one day they're at 100 and the next 125"...

Here is what was discussed regarding the survey. Each day had a different price. Won't it be fun if you have multi-day bronze ticket and show up on a day that flipped to gold to be told you can't enter unless you go to the ticket window and pay more.

http://www.wdwmagic.com/other/magic...ng-prices-based-on-season-survey-says-yes.htm

 

[DDLand]

Wrong. That's exactly what the schedules that were in the recent survey from Disney on tiered pricing showed. Weekends year-round were typically higher than weekdays. So yes, it IS "like one day they're at 100 and the next 125"...

Actually, looking at the pricing guide, you'll note that the phenomena I mentioned would only happen on one weekend of the year. Memorial Day weekend in may. That would be the equivalent of a jump from bronze status to gold (really should have said $105 to $125). That's a sudden change that is rare. Keep in mind that crowds ebb and flow typically more slowly. There are a few other cases where a Gold to Bronze move occurs, but once again in isolated events. Most people will be on vacation either during a Silver/ Gold time period or a Bronze/Silver time period.

http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/06/03/3-things-like-hate-disneys-tiered-ticket-price-proposal/

Typically seasonal. If you're going to be planning your vacation, trying to hit those days will be tricky. I'm not sure if that will play into people's decision or not. Like I said, that's an interesting possibility. It's just the question of whether people will plan their days around trying to save $5, because it's very likely Universal would raise their own ticket prices to 105-110.

Hard to say.

 

[HopperFan]

Universal 2.0 — The facts: One reason Universal Orlando may want 450+ acres, and it's not just for a theme park

........"But theme park consultant John Gerner thinks Universal may be seeing the land right now as a chance to grow more space at its main theme park location by shifting some backstage assets around......

As a reminder: One of the top rules in theme parks is to make sure to keep guests on property and away from spending money elsewhere. That's something Walt Disney World has mastered by having all of its resorts, shopping areas, sports complexes, hotels and more all in one — arguably heavily controlled — location."

http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/...0-the-facts-one-reason-universal.html?ana=twt

 

[DDLand]

Here is what was discussed regarding the survey. Each day had a different price. Won't it be fun if you have multi-day bronze ticket and show up on a day that flipped to gold to be told you can't enter unless you go to the ticket window and pay more.

http://www.wdwmagic.com/other/magic...ng-prices-based-on-season-survey-says-yes.htm

Thanks! Sorry I missed this, I was busy writing below. Could've saved myself some work. As discussed that should only happen once in the year in May. January also comes close with a quick Bronze-Silver-Gold back to back to back scenario. Besides that you can pick most weeks and know it will either be Bronze/Silver or Silver/Gold.