Opions Please.....

[Rpsemont]

Depending on your travel needs and preferences, why not split the difference and buy at both. It might mean moving mid stay sometimes, but sometimes it's nice to experince different resorts.

Truth is, buy where YOU want to stay (or think you will want to stay over the long term) . We bought 5 years ago, when SS was all that was selling. I told my guide I wanted BWV, so was going to wait until I could put a resale deal together. After a few months he called back with BWV points. IT WAS THE BEST THING I EVER DID! For the first few years, we would stay at BWV during F&W and OKW in Feb (which I was able to get at the 7 month window). And really liked OKW. But for the last couple years have just stayed at BWV. Everytime we go now, when we arrive at BWV, we really feel like we're "home"

 

[backyardponder]

As you are considering pros and cons, remember that it takes more points to stay at BLT than SSR. This is probably one reason MF's are low. If MF's go up at BLT, then the cost of staying will be higher.

A few weeks ago I looked at the cost to stay at various resorts. I picked one week's points and multiplied by the MF's. I did use 2009 point charts, which, for a weekly stay, don't change significantly for 2010. I looked at Magic Season.

For SSR: a 2BR would be 296 points. With MF's at $4.34, the week's stay would be $1,284.64.

For BLT: a 2BR Standard view would be $1,305.72. A Lake View would be $1,443.36. A MK view would be $1,740.96.

Looking at these, if you are going to be happy with a BLT standard view, cost of use is about the same. If, on the other hand you will be looking for MK views, it is going to be a lot more expensive.

Just a data point for you.

John

 

[firedog83]

Thanks for all the feedback...I think I might have made up my mind. Since we will probably never book the 11 month window, I will probably just get SS with 2 smaller contracts and take the points. I really appreciate the input.

 

[cheezNE1]

one other note, although you may never need or have to sell your dvc- but unexpected situaion will arise- just like the credit crisis or whatever it might be, I think the BLT resale value are prbly better than SSR also in the future. just a thought.

 

[ELKHUNTER]

If you are buying resale i would not worry about losing money, if you do need to sell in the future. The original purchaser has already taken all the loss. I dont believe resales on resorts like SSR or the others will drop anytime soon.

 

[JimMIA]

As you are considering pros and cons, remember that it takes more points to stay at BLT than SSR. This is probably one reason MF's are low.

Actually, I don't think points costs for a night's stay have anything to do with MFs. MFs are a reflection of the costs of operating the DVC resort, plus in the case of a Disney hotel based resort, an allocation of overall hotel expenses attributable to the DVC portion. For example, if the front desk serves both the hotel and DVC, a portion of the front desk expense is charged to the member association. At BLT, that would also include a portion of the monorail expenses, common grounds, etc, etc. In fact, I believe charging MFs only for actual or anticipated expenses is a legal requirement -- the developer can't charge more than legitimately necessary.

Typically, when a resort is brand new, Disney subsidizes the MFs. I'm sure they are doing that now, because apparently BLT is only about 1/3 sold out. Disney owns the rest at this point. Later, as the property approaches sold out, you will see the dues rise...probably significantly. If you look at the current and historical dues of the various resorts, I think you'll see that hotel-attached resorts usually have higher dues than stand alone properties, because they have more common areas and more amenities than the stand alones.

 

[cheezNE1]

If you are buying resale i would not worry about losing money, if you do need to sell in the future. The original purchaser has already taken all the loss. I dont believe resales on resorts like SSR or the others will drop anytime soon.

There's a thread that somebody purchased SSR recently at $66. I like to take a peak time to time at TTS listing. And about 2 weeks ago, i actually contacted TTS about selling SSR and they recommended listing at about $75. That's a pretty big swing in 2 weeks. It's still real estate... you never know.
True that we shouldn't look at DVC as an investment, but like anything else you buy, you want to make sure it hold its values.

 

[JimMIA]

If you are buying resale i would not worry about losing money, if you do need to sell in the future. The original purchaser has already taken all the loss. I dont believe resales on resorts like SSR or the others will drop anytime soon.

I think you are making an assumption than many, many economists would argue with -- that the various bailouts, stimulus packages, etc will work. Many economists think these efforts will fall on their faces, or worse, get traction at exactly the wrong time and make matters worse. If you look at Bank of America, Citicorp, and AIG, the government has already invested far more in those companies than the companies are worth -- actually several times the value of the shareholders' holdings. Yes, the bailouts are keeping the doors open for those firms, but they are also driving private capital out and private capital is the long-range solution for those companies...if there is a long-term future for them.

There's always a tendency in tough economic times to think we've hit the bottom when things get bad. However, many economists think the economy is only beginning to get bad, and that the final bottom will be much lower and have much greater impact than where we are today.

If that happens, you could have DVC contracts either selling far below where they are today...or being virtually unsellable (if there is such a word).

*****
ETA: From a macroeconomic standpoint, this may be about the worst time you could possibly buy something like DVC. Disney's prices are at an all-time high, but the economic picture is very bleak. That's not a good prescription.

As an example, I bought SSR in 2005 at a bargain-basement promotional price of $83. It's selling for considerably less than that now, and I'm sure will go much lower.

The economic environment is only one consideration for the prospective buyer, but it's certainly ugly right now, and I think it's going to get uglier.

 

[cheezNE1]

I think you are making an assumption than many, many economists would argue with -- that the various bailouts, stimulus packages, etc will work. Many economists think these efforts will fall on their faces, or worse, get traction at exactly the wrong time and make matters worse. If you look at Bank of America, Citicorp, and AIG, the government has already invested far more in those companies than the companies are worth -- actually several times the value of the shareholders' holdings. Yes, the bailouts are keeping the doors open for those firms, but they are also driving private capital out and private capital is the long-range solution for those companies...if there is a long-term future for them.

There's always a tendency in tough economic times to think we've hit the bottom when things get bad. However, many economists think the economy is only beginning to get bad, and that the final bottom will be much lower and have much greater impact than where we are today.

If that happens, you could have DVC contracts either selling far below where they are today...or being virtually unsellable (if there is such a word).

*****
ETA: From a macroeconomic standpoint, this may be about the worst time you could possibly buy something like DVC. Disney's prices are at an all-time high, but the economic picture is very bleak. That's not a good prescription.

As an example, I bought SSR in 2005 at a bargain-basement promotional price of $83. It's selling for considerably less than that now, and I'm sure will go much lower.

The economic environment is only one consideration for the prospective buyer, but it's certainly ugly right now, and I think it's going to get uglier.

 

[logan115]

I'm gonna take the contrarian view, and echo some of Warren Buffet's words of wisdom - "When others are selling and full of fear, I buy, when they're euphoric I sell," so I think now is a great time to buy in, with the caveat that it's not going to be a financial burden - either paying cash or financing (not looking to start the debate about paying cash or financing dvc).

Clearly it is impossible to call an exact bottom in anything (stocks or resale values), but my view is that things will pick up in the next year or so. I don't own DVC (yet) but am looking to hop in via resale and am considering SSR. My simple math tells me that renting a 200 pt ressie at $10/pt would cost me $2000 ever two years (about the frequency I expect us to for the next 10-15 yrs). If I buy a 100 pt contract, my MFs for 2 years cost me about $1000 (+/- a couple hundred), so I'm "saving" about $1000 per trip. If I pay $70/pt via resale, after the first trip by saving $1000 I've brought my "break-even" down to $60/pt. After two trips I'm down to $50. Do I think that even including the MFs and cost of money (interest) that in 5 years someone would be willing to pay $5K to spend a week at WDW in a 1br every two years ? Yes. Is it possible that I'd end up selling it at $4K net of commissions and take a $1K loss, sure, but I'm not going to be afraid to go to sleep at night thinkiing that I'll pay $7K and in a year it's worth zero.

Above scenario is based more on SSR-type prices. Have stayed there and it would not be the end of the world to call it home, although I would plan on booking there at 11 mos and seeing what else is available at 7 mos.


Any thoughts ?

 

[White_Sox_Fan]

As you are considering pros and cons, remember that it takes more points to stay at BLT than SSR. This is probably one reason MF's are low. If MF's go up at BLT, then the cost of staying will be higher.

A few weeks ago I looked at the cost to stay at various resorts. I picked one week's points and multiplied by the MF's. I did use 2009 point charts, which, for a weekly stay, don't change significantly for 2010. I looked at Magic Season.

For SSR: a 2BR would be 296 points. With MF's at $4.34, the week's stay would be $1,284.64.

For BLT: a 2BR Standard view would be $1,305.72. A Lake View would be $1,443.36. A MK view would be $1,740.96.

Looking at these, if you are going to be happy with a BLT standard view, cost of use is about the same. If, on the other hand you will be looking for MK views, it is going to be a lot more expensive.

Just a data point for you.

John

Conversely, a BLT owner staying at SSR would only pay $1086.32 for the two bedroom compared to the $1305.72 for the SSR owner. BLT owners actually get better economy by staying outside their home resort since they can stay for less points per night with lower MF's per point.

Actually, I don't think points costs for a night's stay have anything to do with MFs.

I would disagree. Since the cost per night is higher there are more points per unit per year. All thing being equal (which they are not) that would relate to lower cost per point. If the point chart was closer to the other resorts the operating cost, which would still be the same, would be spread among fewer points thus the MF's would be higher. For this reason, and the fact that this is a high rise resort, I feel the MF's will remain lower than the other resorts.

 

[cheezNE1]

I'm gonna take the contrarian view, and echo some of Warren Buffet's words of wisdom - "When others are selling and full of fear, I buy, when they're euphoric I sell," so I think now is a great time to buy in, with the caveat that it's not going to be a financial burden - either paying cash or financing (not looking to start the debate about paying cash or financing dvc).

Clearly it is impossible to call an exact bottom in anything (stocks or resale values), but my view is that things will pick up in the next year or so. I don't own DVC (yet) but am looking to hop in via resale and am considering SSR. My simple math tells me that renting a 200 pt ressie at $10/pt would cost me $2000 ever two years (about the frequency I expect us to for the next 10-15 yrs). If I buy a 100 pt contract, my MFs for 2 years cost me about $1000 (+/- a couple hundred), so I'm "saving" about $1000 per trip. If I pay $70/pt via resale, after the first trip by saving $1000 I've brought my "break-even" down to $60/pt. After two trips I'm down to $50. Do I think that even including the MFs and cost of money (interest) that in 5 years someone would be willing to pay $5K to spend a week at WDW in a 1br every two years ? Yes. Is it possible that I'd end up selling it at $4K net of commissions and take a $1K loss, sure, but I'm not going to be afraid to go to sleep at night thinkiing that I'll pay $7K and in a year it's worth zero.

Above scenario is based more on SSR-type prices. Have stayed there and it would not be the end of the world to call it home, although I would plan on booking there at 11 mos and seeing what else is available at 7 mos.


Any thoughts ?

It would be great if everyone thinks like you, the stock market prbly wouldn't be in this mess. As to "things will get better next year or so..." - that's a tough one to swallow. And to some, $7k to $0 is nothing and to some- yes, they will lose sleep knowing it will go to $0.
It is true that in the long run, if you never plan to sell your DVC, you should be on the upside. But being the way things are, "consumer confidence" is everything and just thought thought of losing 25% or even 50% value of what you own in a short time- that's gonna put a damper on the perspectives.
Just like any real estate- there are reasons for it's value and it's decline.
Some buy their cars base on resale values and some buy base on what they can afford. And what keeps its resale values ? - Quality. So it's different strokes for diff folks. This is just my opinion.

 

[backyardponder]

Conversely, a BLT owner staying at SSR would only pay $1086.32 for the two bedroom compared to the $1305.72 for the SSR owner. BLT owners actually get better economy by staying outside their home resort since they can stay for less points per night with lower MF's per point.

Good point!

 

[firedog83]

Well thanks for all the feedback and I made an offer for SS and it was accepted. 270pts at $67 per point with 261 points included. It was the best deal I came across. Hopefully i dont get ROFR'd. When making my decision I gave alot of thought about the economy and I decided not to spend as much as originally had planned but the way I look at the economy is that it will eventually get better. Sure I may cut back on some things but life will still go on and I plan to still take vacations.Disney is a great escape from real life. I truly believe that the tough will survive this downturn in our economy. The people that dont look for the govt for there every need is what made this country great and these are the people that will get us out of this sooner or later. Another thing I considered was, I live in Fl and I dont see myself making a reservation 11months out. Sure I would love to stay at BLT but I am going to visit all of them. All your inputs really helped in my decision. Thanks

 

[logan115]

Well thanks for all the feedback and I made an offer for SS and it was accepted. 270pts at $67 per point with 261 points included. It was the best deal I came across. Hopefully i dont get ROFR'd. When making my decision I gave alot of thought about the economy and I decided not to spend as much as originally had planned but the way I look at the economy is that it will eventually get better. Sure I may cut back on some things but life will still go on and I plan to still take vacations.Disney is a great escape from real life. I truly believe that the tough will survive this downturn in our economy. The people that dont look for the govt for there every need is what made this country great and these are the people that will get us out of this sooner or later. Another thing I considered was, I live in Fl and I dont see myself making a reservation 11months out. Sure I would love to stay at BLT but I am going to visit all of them. All your inputs really helped in my decision. Thanks

Could you please post the details of your offer here http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=1960185&page=39.

It's one of my favorite threads (cuz I'm looking at buying resale myself) and helps to keep everyone informed on where stuff is trading.

Congrats and good luck - hope to become your "neighbor" in the next few months !

Chris

 

[Jacky]

Think about what that 30 grand you spent on DVC would be worth today if it was in the stock market.........

I am not sure its such a bad deal......

Jacky

 

[JimMIA]

Think about what that 30 grand you spent on DVC would be worth today if it was in the stock market.........

I am not sure its such a bad deal......

Jacky

Or think about what it would be worth if you bought neither DVC nor stocks.

That's the real equation a lot of folks should be thinking about. They may need that $30,000 cash much more than they need either DVC or some stock certificates.

 

[cheezNE1]

Or think about what it would be worth if you bought neither DVC nor stocks.

That's the real equation a lot of folks should be thinking about. They may need that $30,000 cash much more than they need either DVC or some stock certificates.

Think about what that 30 grand you spent on DVC would be worth today if it was in the stock market.........

I am not sure its such a bad deal......

Jacky

That would be the difference between the mentality of a saver vs. investor.

 

[JimMIA]

That would be the difference between the mentality of a saver vs. investor.

Not if you're considering me the saver. I own DVC (which is a luxury expense -- neither saving nor investing) and I have a lot more in various investments including the stock market than I have in DVC.

However, when I look at the current economic environment, I think it's a poor time for many people to be putting their money in a luxury vacation plan...or anything else. It's certainly no time to buy stocks!

When you have eternal optimists like Warren Buffett saying the economy is going to be "a shambles" throughout 2009 and probably longer, most of us who are not as knowledgable as Buffett would do well to listen. He also recently apologized to his investors for losing "billions" of their dollars, and more than half of his companies have laid off thousands of employees with more to come.

When you have the US government pouring $180 BILLION into AIG -- which lost $61 BILLION in the most recent three months operations -- we should perk up. When the US government has to take 40% ownership in Citicorp to keep it afloat a while longer (and a similar move with Bank of America), someone might want to take a closer look at longterm financial obligations they get involved in. The government is taking similar steps with the US auto industry, which has been steadily losing market share for more than 30 years. The AIG bailout alone equals $1,400 from every single American household, according to ABC News, and there are many analysts who think none of these steps will save those companies.

I've been investing for many years, and I've never seen a financial system in such disarray. When you have companies like GE losing 75% of their value, you may want to wonder whether this is a normal downturn or the beginning of something much worse.

In that environment, cash is king.

 

[cheezNE1]

Not if you're considering me the saver. I own DVC (which is a luxury expense -- neither saving nor investing) and I have a lot more in various investments including the stock market than I have in DVC.

However, when I look at the current economic environment, I think it's a poor time for many people to be putting their money in a luxury vacation plan...or anything else. It's certainly no time to buy stocks!

When you have eternal optimists like Warren Buffett saying the economy is going to be "a shambles" throughout 2009 and probably longer, most of us who are not as knowledgable as Buffett would do well to listen. He also recently apologized to his investors for losing "billions" of their dollars, and more than half of his companies have laid off thousands of employees with more to come.

When you have the US government pouring $180 BILLION into AIG -- which lost $61 BILLION in the most recent three months operations -- we should perk up. When the US government has to take 40% ownership in Citicorp to keep it afloat a while longer (and a similar move with Bank of America), someone might want to take a closer look at longterm financial obligations they get involved in. The government is taking similar steps with the US auto industry, which has been steadily losing market share for more than 30 years. The AIG bailout alone equals $1,400 from every single American household, according to ABC News, and there are many analysts who think none of these steps will save those companies.

I've been investing for many years, and I've never seen a financial system in such disarray. When you have companies like GE losing 75% of their value, you may want to wonder whether this is a normal downturn or the beginning of something much worse.

In that environment, cash is king.

That is so true- Cash is king now followed by Gold.
I didn't mean you in general, just the buying neither part. That's why the richers gets richer. Gotta have money to make money and times like this, it's a huge bargain for the rich. You think if they buy 100,000 shs of citigroup now and it drops further, they lose sleep ? Not a chance.

Also, there is an interesting documentary movie out there on the net. It kinda explains how all this is government's doing. It's a 3 part doc for the first movie. Check it out, very interesting.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeitgeist,_the_Movie