Opinions on selling contracts in 25 years

[Hoppy-tn]

Wife and I are assuming Disney will exercise right of first refusal on our second boardwalk try at which time we will buy direct. trying to decide on old key west extended, Saratoga or riviera. We are 49 years old so no way we will be able to use all of riviera contract time. Assuming we are alive in 25 years we will probably no longer have the health or want to go to Disney and walk, fight crowds,etc.
i Know a lot of thing can and will change with Disney by then but based on current resale restrictions on riviera do you think it would be harder to resale an old key or Saratoga contract with only 7-10 years left on it or a restricted contract with about 23 years left on it? We don’t have kids to will the contract to. Any thoughts would be helpful. Thanks!

 

[Sandisw]

I think between those 3, Riviera, even with restrictions will bring easier to sell than the other two since there is a pretty good chance resale restrctions will be in place at other newer resorts.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I think "which one you prefer and consider a better value now" is much more of a sure thing than "speculation about what might be worth a bit more or less in 2050." I think you're overthinking the decision and giving too much weight to the most uncertain variable in the equation.

 

[SleeplessInTO]

Wife and I are assuming Disney will exercise right of first refusal on our second boardwalk try at which time we will buy direct. trying to decide on old key west extended, Saratoga or riviera. We are 49 years old so no way we will be able to use all of riviera contract time. Assuming we are alive in 25 years we will probably no longer have the health or want to go to Disney and walk, fight crowds,etc.
i Know a lot of thing can and will change with Disney by then but based on current resale restrictions on riviera do you think it would be harder to resale an old key or Saratoga contract with only 7-10 years left on it or a restricted contract with about 23 years left on it? We don’t have kids to will the contract to. Any thoughts would be helpful. Thanks!

I don't suppose you'd consider Grand Floridian direct? Length of contract is still pretty long, cost to buy right now is comparable to Riviera as it is also in active sales, and the future buyer of that contract can still stay at all the pre-Riviera resorts (assuming rules stay the same as they are today).

I buy my contracts with the expectation that the value of them drops to zero the next day (much like my purchases in the stock market), but if I was a betting woman and trying to maximize my resale value in the future on a direct purchase, I'd go with a Grand Floridian contract vs. any of the 3 mentioned.

 

[davidl81]

In no way, shape, or form should resale value in 25 years effect what you are buying today. But if it is a concern I would say VGF direct is your best choice (although not on your list).

 

[Hoppy-tn]

We are not current dvc owners so cannot buy grand Floridian at current incentive.
my Preference was to buy boardwalk resale first then direct purchase next but since Disney is buying the resales we have decided to buy direct first so we can get something booked for our December trip then keep trying to buy a boardwalk resale until we get one. Disney can’t keep buying them all year.

 

[Tommyboy18]

We are not current dvc owners so cannot buy grand Floridian at current incentive.
my Preference was to buy boardwalk resale first then direct purchase next but since Disney is buying the resales we have decided to buy direct first so we can get something booked for our December trip then keep trying to buy a boardwalk resale until we get one. Disney can’t keep buying them all year.

Disney can keep buying them back. Demand is insane right now. Before you commit to buying a contract, check to see if you can even get the reservation you want. If its boardwalk, my guess is no. Have fun stalking the reservation site.

If its me, I would find a renter and rent points for your trip this year. Find someone who will spend a month stalking the site for you.
Keep hammering away at resale until you get one. Worth the savings. Pick a resort that has value if exiting before expiration to recoup investment is your goal.

I would ignore the idea that these contracts ever go to zero value if you plan to sell before expiration. In my opinion, equal or more value will be present on these contracts as long as you sell with 15-20 years left on it. That rules out any 2042. I wouldn't buy resale on anything 2054 or less right now if I was planning to sell. Alternative is, you just rent the contracts until expiration and never sell. Points value should hold up and continue to be worth double your dues at the minimum. As long as Disney keeps raising rack rate, the better the value our points and DVC as whole becomes. Disney is unique. There will always be a demand...

My plan is sell with about 15-17 years left on my contracts. We will see how the resorts with near expiration shake out as we get closer.

 

[DVCKing]

I love my Riviera points but the points certainly go farther at OKW and SSR. I think it needs to boil down to where do you want to stay and buy there.

 

[Dizzydizney]

If you love Boardwalk, and can afford buying direct, I would go for it. Do what makes you happy. Not fun to get shot down repeatedly on your quests for resale Boardwalk. But I also would not buy if I was worried about what I would or would not get for it on the resale market down the road. Everything is so unpredictable these days.
I could spend a month at Boardwalk and not get bored. It’s a great resort with a great location.
I also love the Riviera, but it’s completely different. The tower rooms are good point savers, but I don’t recommend for more than a couple of nights. The studios are beautiful and spacious.
Good luck with your decision.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I would avoid buying OKW with thoughts of selling in 2042. Due to how the OKW extension went, there are going to either be legal issues, or a whole lot of points owned by Disney in 2042.

 

[The Jackal]

I would avoid buying OKW with thoughts of selling in 2042. Due to how the OKW extension went, there are going to either be legal issues, or a whole lot of points owned by Disney in 2042.

I wouldn’t be suprised if DVC buys a lot of them back, sets a bargain price to sell them quickly. If they do that a few times they could get a lot of points extended, make a little money and have only a small issue in 2042 with OKW.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I wouldn’t be suprised if DVC buys a lot of them back, sets a bargain price to sell them quickly. If they do that a few times they could get a lot of points extended, make a little money and have only a small issue in 2042 with OKW.

Arguably, the "buy a lot, set a bargain price, sell quickly" model also impacts the 25-year outlook to sell a contract. So I'd still not look at OKW with an eye to resale in 20 years.

 

[chalee94]

I wouldn’t be suprised if DVC buys a lot of them back, sets a bargain price to sell them quickly. If they do that a few times they could get a lot of points extended, make a little money and have only a small issue in 2042 with OKW.

OKW comprises 7.7 million points. 1.5 million were extended during their original offer. In the roughly 10 years from 2010-2019, DVC sold another 550,000 points.

I haven't seen data on the last few years but they probably still need to turn over around 5 million points...about 10x what they sold in the last decade with 2 decades to go (and many of us 2042 owners aren't planning to sell and are fine with riding it out to the end). Are they going to sell for less than their ROFR price?

I am excited to see what bargain price will be offered to accomplish this quick turnover, though...

 

[RoseGold]

I agree with @Sandisw. With a 25 year plan to hold, I would pick RIV.

If you plan to hold, say 10 years, I'd pick SSR.

 

[sethschroeder]

If you plan to hold, say 10 years, I'd pick SSR.

Yup I think that is the switch because once we start counting down to 2042 I can see the "value" of the O14 SAP starting to be devalued as you see a variety of resorts expiring.