One more thing...cost of points

[dwade266]

I know there's a good reason, and I'm sure I was aware of the details when we purchased... but...

Why would we pay ~$100 for points at Orlando resort vs. <<$90 for Vero Beach or Hilton Head when the points "spend" the same? I realize there is the 7 month window vs. 11 months @ home resort, but that can't justify the difference in price? I understand monthly fees are higher at Vero Beach than Saratoga Springs, but that can't be it either...

 

[ZekeKelso]

I realize there is the 7 month window vs. 11 months @ home resort, but that can't justify the difference in price? I understand monthly fees are higher at Vero Beach than Saratoga Springs, but that can't be it either...

Those are the two main reasons. If you don't think they are enough, multiply the current $1.80 difference in maintenance fees over the next 35 years of ownership...

 

[chalee94]

I realize there is the 7 month window vs. 11 months @ home resort, but that can't justify the difference in price?

the first time you have to cancel plans for a wdw reservation because the waitlists are full at 7 months, you might wish you had paid a little more...

there's also a small risk that any DVC resort could be spun-off (i.e. sold and removed from the system.) that risk is a little higher for the offsite locations. risks of hurricane/storm damage resulting in a special assessment? also higher.

if you're a riverboat gambler, it is definitely cheaper to get in the door at HH/VB...but there are risks to consider.

 

[wildernessDad]

Your initial purchase price will be outpaced by the cost of Dues over the years. Saving a few bucks initially to get something 'cheaper' may mean that it actually costs more when all is said and done.

And you know what they say. "When all is said and done, there is nothing more to say or do."

 

[tjkraz]

I know there's a good reason, and I'm sure I was aware of the details when we purchased... but...

Why would we pay ~$100 for points at Orlando resort vs. <<$90 for Vero Beach or Hilton Head when the points "spend" the same? I realize there is the 7 month window vs. 11 months @ home resort, but that can't justify the difference in price? I understand monthly fees are higher at Vero Beach than Saratoga Springs, but that can't be it either...

I know people who own most or all of their points at VB or HHI and are still quite satisfied with their ability to book WDW resorts. Whether that satisfaction holds true in the long run remains to be seen. I do think over the last 2-3 years member booking patterns have seen a huge shift toward more aggressive use of the 11-month booking window.

Don't make the mistake of thinking that typical disney slow periods are mirrored in DVC. Some go into it with the mistaken impression that they can book "slow" periods like early-December or January with ease. The reality couldn't be further from the truth.

Other considerations include contract duration and annual dues. Saratoga Springs may cost more than HHI or VB upfront, but the contract is also 12 years longer and the dues per point are lower. AKV contracts are 15 years longer and provide access to low-priced "Value" class accommodations. The value rooms will rarely be available to book at less than 7 months, making them one benefit for owning points at AKV.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

If you don't care where you stay at WDW, then purchasing HHI or VB points resale ($60-$70/pt) is a bargain. It will take a lot of time before one breaks even between the higher dues and the big savings per point. There is always plenty of inventory at OKW and SSR. Soon, it will be AKV. If you don't mind staying at these resorts, you will save alot of money. I think the whole theory of " higher MF will eat up your savings" is a bunch of baloney. Do the math.....see how long it takes to just break even. So what about the extra years (2042 vs. 2057). Statistically, the probability that you will still even own past 20 yrs. is low.

 

[tjkraz]

There is always plenty of inventory at OKW and SSR.

Not always. There are already reports of people being told "nothing available" for dates after Thanksgiving. Is that situation likely to get better or worse in coming years? In recent years booking patterns seem to greatly impacted by fear, uncertainty and doubt. I can't see that F.U.D. easing-up much over time.

So what about the extra years (2042 vs. 2057). Statistically, the probability that you will still even own past 20 yrs. is low.

There may or may not be any truth to that but taken at face value, which is likely to be worth more in 20 years:

* VB or HHI points with 14 years remaining
* SSR points with 26 years remaining
* AKV points with 29 years remaining

The SSR and AKV points will have almost twice as much ownership remaining. As such, they should demand a lot more on the resale market.

I'm not going to suggest that there is a "one size fits all" solution to DVC ownership. However, buying at VB or HHI with the intention of using points at WDW seems like a high-risk, low-reward situation. Sure you save a few dollars up front. But you also have to live without the 11-month booking advantage, have little access to preferred room classes at WDW (AKV Value, BWV Standard, OKW "close to HH", etc.), have the shorter contract duration and higher dues than most on-site properties.

It's certainly not a risk I would choose to take.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Not always. There are already reports of people being told "nothing available" for dates after Thanksgiving. Is that situation likely to get better or worse in coming years? In recent years booking patterns seem to greatly impacted by fear, uncertainty and doubt. I can't see that F.U.D. easing-up much over time.





There may or may not be any truth to that but taken at face value, which is likely to be worth more in 20 years:

* VB or HHI points with 14 years remaining
* SSR points with 26 years remaining
* AKV points with 29 years remaining

The SSR and AKV points will have almost twice as much ownership remaining. As such, they should demand a lot more on the resale market.

I'm not going to suggest that there is a "one size fits all" solution to DVC ownership. However, buying at VB or HHI with the intention of using points at WDW seems like a high-risk, low-reward situation. Sure you save a few dollars up front. But you also have to live without the 11-month booking advantage, have little access to preferred room classes at WDW (AKV Value, BWV Standard, OKW "close to HH", etc.), have the shorter contract duration and higher dues than most on-site properties.

It's certainly not a risk I would choose to take.

You have valid points, however, if the OP doesn't care where they stay whenever they travel and doesn't care about the 11 mos., booking advantage, these off -site resort points are a great value. At certain times of the year, even owners at the 11 mos. ressie time frame can't get their requests. All of the room options you mentioned are all available at the 7 mos. ressie period. Will they be there at the time one ressies? That's the trade off the buyer makes. There have been several posts where the off site owners have had no problem gettting WDW accommodations. Lets not forget, AKV and the soon to be Kingdome Towers will more than open the availability at the 7 mos. time frame. JMHO, but there is too muc "fear factor" being placed on this theory.

 

[dianeschlicht]

You have valid points, however, if the OP doesn't care where they stay whenever they travel and doesn't care about the 11 mos., booking advantage, these off -site resort points are a great value. At certain times of the year, even owners at the 11 mos. ressie time frame can't get their requests. All of the room options you mentioned are all available at the 7 mos. ressie period. Will they be there at the time one ressies? That's the trade off the buyer makes. There have been several posts where the off site owners have had no problem gettting WDW accommodations. Lets not forget, AKV and the soon to be Kingdome Towers will more than open the availability at the 7 mos. time frame. JMHO, but there is too muc "fear factor" being placed on this theory.

I believe your logic is flawed on several levels. First off, that "great value" that you get at the time of sale is a drop in the bucket to the "greater cost" you will pay in dues over the course of the contracts.

Your other flawed assumption is that AKV and KTV will "open up availability at the 7 month time frame". Not necessarily, because those added villas also mean added membership, and with all the developer points floating around out there from the sales, there is a big crunch on existing inventory.

 

[dizplanner]

The bottom line is supply and demand. Less people want to buy at VB/HH, so they (either Disney or resell) have to charge less in order to sell. It really doesn't matter why - as long as people are not willing to spend $100/point, you can't charge $100/point.

As to why the demand is less
1. Most people want to go to WDW so they don't want to buy off-site. Even if their usage indicates they could (i.e. always book under 7 months). This is the biggest reason in my opinion.
2. Higher dues
3. Don't want to buy a resort sight unseen and have only been to WDW.
4. Shorter contract.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I believe your logic is flawed on several levels. First off, that "great value" that you get at the time of sale is a drop in the bucket to the "greater cost" you will pay in dues over the course of the contracts.
Your other flawed assumption is that AKV and KTV will "open up availability at the 7 month time frame". Not necessarily, because those added villas also mean added membership, and with all the developer points floating around out there from the sales, there is a big crunch on existing inventory.

No one can give a figure, but this assumption keeps getting repeated. Just your opinion, but as I have stated many have posted that they have had NO problems obtaining ressies on site. So whether you feel there is a "value" or not is opinion, but the fact is there is a savings purchasing these points.

 

[doconeill]

Don't forget...the goal of DVC is to have 100% of all points sold, which aside from breakage and maintenance inventories would also imply 100% occupancy. That basically means that unless DVC keeps creating resorts that have unsold inventory, it will be harder and harder to book stays when you want them, even at your home resort.

Fortunately, the business model also implies that they need to keep building resorts to sell points for the income, until they decide to "stand pat", lay off all the sales people, and go into a maintenance-only mode.

Now, I often wondered why there were two months in the year that do not have a Use Year associated with them. I originally though that points were allocated evenly throughout the year, and those two months simply are "retained inventory", never sold, to allow flexibility in booking dates. But that implies only a 17% retention of inventory, and I understand its more like 4%.

 

[ZekeKelso]

To me, it makes no sense to buy at the beach resorts as a "cheap" way to get points to use at WDW. The beach resorts give you no on-site 11-month windows, greater risk of a catastrophe, and the upfront savings really are a drop in the bucket of the overall costs.

Figures

Assuming 3% inflation, future maintenance costs:

OKW: $263/point
HHI: $298/point
VB: $349/point

Average price for pending sales at Timeshare store:

OKW: $72
HHI: $70 (note - this is based on only one sale and is probably a bit high)
VB: $65

 

[BWV Dreamin]

To me, it makes no sense to buy at the beach resorts as a "cheap" way to get points to use at WDW. The beach resorts give you no on-site 11-month windows, greater risk of a catastrophe, and the upfront savings really are a drop in the bucket of the overall costs.

Figures

Assuming 3% inflation, future maintenance costs:

OKW: $263/point
HHI: $298/point
VB: $349/point

Average price for pending sales at Timeshare store:

OKW: $72
HHI: $70 (note - this is based on only one sale and is probably a bit high)
VB: $65

Glad to see someone trying to put numbers to this discussion, but where are you getting these figures from? Over what period of time? Do a point savings comparison as well. These figures really don't explain anything. Again, the discussion is point savings vs. increased maintenance fees, period of time before all is equal, then point in time where loss is obtained relative to all resorts. At least this is my discussion ! There must be a math guru out there!

 

[ZekeKelso]

Glad to see someone trying to put numbers to this discussion, but where are you getting these figures from? Over what period of time?

Maintenance fees are 2008 fees projected forward through 2041 at 3% inflation and summed. Purchase price is the current listings on the Timeshare Store's site taking the average cost of all pending contracts weighted by points.

Do a point savings comparison as well.

Note sure what you mean by "point savings comparison". Let me know any I'll be happy to do it.

These figures really don't explain anything.

To me, they show that the savings in purchase price per point are tiny compared to future maintenance costs.

Again, the discussion is point savings vs. increased maintenance fees, period of time before all is equal, then point in time where loss is obtained relative to all resorts. At least this is my discussion ! There must be a math guru out there!

Again, not positive what you are asking here, but I think one of your questions is the break-even year. Comparing VB to OKW, the $7 in purchase price savings from buying is more than wiped out after only 5 years. At that point, the owner will have paid $65 per point to buy in and $32 in fees for VB (total of $97) vs $72 to buy in + $24 in fees for OKW ($96 total).

Anything else you'd like to see?

 

[FLYNZ4]

Now, I often wondered why there were two months in the year that do not have a Use Year associated with them.

My understanding is that there are four months with no use years associated to them:

Jan, May, July, Nov if I remember right.

/Jim

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Maintenance fees are 2008 fees projected forward through 2041 at 3% inflation and summed. Purchase price is the current listings on the Timeshare Store's site taking the average cost of all pending contracts weighted by points. Note sure what you mean by "point savings comparison". Let me know any I'll be happy to do it.

To me, they show that the savings in purchase price per point are tiny compared to future maintenance costs.

Again, not positive what you are asking here, but I think one of your questions is the break-even year. Comparing VB to OKW, the $7 in purchase price savings from buying is more than wiped out after only 5 years. At that point, the owner will have paid $65 per point to buy in and $32 in fees for VB (total of $97) vs $72 to buy in + $24 in fees for OKW ($96 total).

Anything else you'd like to see?

Ok, referring to the first paragraph, there are no constant variables. How about using a typical contract, 160 for Disney's buy in amount. But the comparison will be on resale value, not retail. You could average the resale value, but throw out the high and low's. You are also using the lowest resort resale value at WDW resort, which if you are comparing savings based on the lowest resort, than that would be a fair assumption. However, the comparison should be based on the highest resale amount to get the maximum savings amount, not minimum. Or you could run the numbers for both. The point savings comparison should be the amount of money saved purchased at the average resale price for 160 pts. vs. the difference in MF fees between those resorts over a period of time. And the question being at what point in time do the difference in MF's negate the savings gained at time of inital purchase. I think you tried to answer this, but with variables, not constants.

 

[StayFLA]

I believe your logic is flawed on several levels. First off, that "great value" that you get at the time of sale is a drop in the bucket to the "greater cost" you will pay in dues over the course of the contracts.

Your other flawed assumption is that AKV and KTV will "open up availability at the 7 month time frame". Not necessarily, because those added villas also mean added membership, and with all the developer points floating around out there from the sales, there is a big crunch on existing inventory.

Yes, I believe the increase in membership numbers will make advanced ressies critical. The new units add rooms, but the resorts sell point contracts to fill the resorts for the year. Thanksgiving - 2nd week DEC will be few at the 7 month window. Home resorts will book at 7 - 11 months. How do I put this? If 1/4 of owners want to go in DEC, 13 weeks worth of owners are fighting over 3 weeks. Some want Sun - Thurs. Others want Wed - Sat, etc. Waitlist will work for some, but some will not get all the dates due to overlaps. Look at EPCOT resorts during F&W in the Fall. I've already planned on booking 11 months DEC 2010 . Never saw the decorations and need to pull kids from school. I don't even want to go into developer points!

Ralph

 

[doconeill]

My understanding is that there are four months with no use years associated to them:

Jan, May, July, Nov if I remember right.

/Jim

*smacks head with keyboard repeatedly*

I knew that. I knew that. Heck - its on my web page. Total brain freeze.

There's no way they retain 33%. There must be some other reason they don't use those months, but I have no idea why.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Ok, lets try this scenario. Lets use BWV for comaprison. Average resale rate is $85/pt. Average resale VB $65/pt. All things being equal (inflation,state of the economy, nobody nuked yet), we'll base this equation on 100pts. The difference in MF between the two is $1. So, if I purchased the VB contract I would spend $6500. BWV contract, $8500. Difference is $2000. The difference btween both contracts for MF's is $100/yr. So, it would take approx. 20 yrs. for the savings to be negated by the higher MF's. Whose to say the purchaser even holds onto the contract that long? If I missed something in the math, please correct me.