One more thing...cost of points

[StayFLA]

If you don't care where you stay at WDW, then purchasing HHI or VB points resale ($60-$70/pt) is a bargain. It will take a lot of time before one breaks even between the higher dues and the big savings per point. There is always plenty of inventory at OKW and SSR. Soon, it will be AKV. If you don't mind staying at these resorts, you will save alot of money. I think the whole theory of " higher MF will eat up your savings" is a bunch of baloney. Do the math.....see how long it takes to just break even. So what about the extra years (2042 vs. 2057). Statistically, the probability that you will still even own past 20 yrs. is low.

I don't think it's going to be about where you want to go, but when. I went after AKV 2bdr at 6 months for AUG. Booked, no go, OKW HH, here I come. Don't get me wrong, I wanted OKW , DW wanted AK. We'll see AK someday .
As far as the dues go, I'll try to do the math again and post. SSR worked in my favor before. I wanted WDW, but did look at the offsite properties. I do remember using 3% increase yearly for dues, and SSR came out $6 - $7 per point for the life of the contract.

Ralph

 

[Joey7295]

So, it would take approx. 20 yrs. for the savings to be negated by the higher MF's. Whose to say the purchaser even holds onto the contract that long? If I missed something in the math, please correct me.

Even if the purchaser decides not to hold onto the contract for more than 20 years, when they do sell their contract, which will sell for more BWV or VB. BWV is currently averaging $20 more as you pointed out. The end result after they sell would be more spent toward VB.

 

[StayFLA]

Ok, lets try this scenario. Lets use BWV for comaprison. Average resale rate is $85/pt. Average resale VB $65/pt. All things being equal (inflation,state of the economy, nobody nuked yet), we'll base this equation on 100pts. The difference in MF between the two is $1. So, if I purchased the VB contract I would spend $6500. BWV contract, $8500. Difference is $2000. The difference btween both contracts for MF's is $100/yr. So, it would take approx. 20 yrs. for the savings to be negated by the higher MF's. Whose to say the purchaser even holds onto the contract that long? If I missed something in the math, please correct me.

OK, compound 3% on that $100. It will not take 20 years. Coastal properties do have a higher risk too. If that is what you want , buy it. If you want WDW, buy that. It's a hedge bet, but I don't gamble.

Ralph

Edit: Don't get me wrong, I want to stay at VB & HHI, but I won't buy there.

 

[crisi]

Part of the bet is we don't know what will happen.

The beach resorts have a chance of being hit by a hurricane and Disney will have the option of not rebuilding them. Or they have the option of a special assessment of owners.

The beach resorts could be spun off.

DVC could move big into offsite resorts (Hawaii followed by Colorado, upstate New York, Mexico, who knows) More offsite resorts will mean more competition for onsite rooms at seven months - unless current DVCers who tend to use their points at WDW change their habits to compensate)

But if you are a gambling person and understand the system (i.e. aren't expecting easy WDW stays those first two weeks of December), low purchase price may be appealing. Yeah, the dues will eventually eat up your savings if they keep the current trend, but that's part of the gamble - and money in your pocket now may be worth more to you than money you need to spend tomorrow.

 

[FLYNZ4]

Ok, lets try this scenario. Lets use BWV for comaprison. Average resale rate is $85/pt. Average resale VB $65/pt. All things being equal (inflation,state of the economy, nobody nuked yet), we'll base this equation on 100pts. The difference in MF between the two is $1. So, if I purchased the VB contract I would spend $6500. BWV contract, $8500. Difference is $2000. The difference btween both contracts for MF's is $100/yr. So, it would take approx. 20 yrs. for the savings to be negated by the higher MF's. Whose to say the purchaser even holds onto the contract that long? If I missed something in the math, please correct me.

Do the math again comparing SSR (avg $80) and lower MFs... and see how long it will take to break even. Now you can book an 11 month reservation in WDW and get your airline FF tickets etc far enough in advance to have a predictable vacation.

/Jim

 

[StayFLA]

Part of the bet is we don't know what will happen.

The beach resorts have a chance of being hit by a hurricane and Disney will have the option of not rebuilding them. Or they have the option of a special assessment of owners.

The beach resorts could be spun off.

DVC could move big into offsite resorts (Hawaii followed by Colorado, upstate New York, Mexico, who knows) More offsite resorts will mean more competition for onsite rooms at seven months - unless current DVCers who tend to use their points at WDW change their habits to compensate)

But if you are a gambling person and understand the system (i.e. aren't expecting easy WDW stays those first two weeks of December), low purchase price may be appealing. Yeah, the dues will eventually eat up your savings if they keep the current trend, but that's part of the gamble - and money in your pocket now may be worth more to you than money you need to spend tomorrow.

I don't see them being spun off now. DVC wants to build away from WDW. WDW is where the money is, but I think they are really pushing to expand outside WDW. They are pushing DVC and it's working.

Ralph

 

[Deb & Bill]

I don't see them being spun off now. DVC wants to build away from WDW. WDW is where the money is, but I think they are really pushing to expand outside WDW. They are pushing DVC and it's working.

Ralph

But they already cancelled the expansion at Vero Beach and cancelled the original plans in California that was bought out by Marriott. I think they finally see the saturation of the theme parks and try to convince people to try vacations away from the theme parks -ala Adventures by Disney (not worth the points to me). They may be looking at the trades out of DVC and try to contain those into DVC by building Hawaii.

But you know there are times when rooms are standing available at VB and HHI because no one really wants to be there at that time of year.

 

[crisi]

I don't see them being spun off now. DVC wants to build away from WDW. WDW is where the money is, but I think they are really pushing to expand outside WDW. They are pushing DVC and it's working.

Ralph

Nor do I. But its a possibility. I find it more likely that one or both resorts will be hit with significant enough storm damage to either impact member fees more significantly than currently or just drive Disney to shut the resorts down. And I find it far more likely than that that Disney's expansion into offsite resorts are going to leave VB and HH owners who have "never had a problem getting something" have some problems - possibly not significant if you are flexible with your resort choice and dates.

 

[tjkraz]

Ok, lets try this scenario. Lets use BWV for comaprison. Average resale rate is $85/pt. Average resale VB $65/pt. All things being equal (inflation,state of the economy, nobody nuked yet), we'll base this equation on 100pts. The difference in MF between the two is $1. So, if I purchased the VB contract I would spend $6500. BWV contract, $8500. Difference is $2000. The difference btween both contracts for MF's is $100/yr. So, it would take approx. 20 yrs. for the savings to be negated by the higher MF's. Whose to say the purchaser even holds onto the contract that long? If I missed something in the math, please correct me.

One thing I can think of which isn't accounted for here is the existence of the Standard View class at the BoardWalk.

If you spend the extra $2k to buy BWV points, you are pretty much guaranteed of booking the Standard View category whenever you wish. The same cannot be said for using Vero points to book at 7 months.

A Standard View 1B in Dream Season is 210 points for a full week. If you book it with BWV points, the total OOP cost is $1058.40 (that's 210 x 5.04 dues)

Now if the points' Home is Vero, instead need to spend 252 points to book a Preferred View 1B for the week. With Vero dues of $6.04, the OOP cost is $1522.08.

In the end, it costs 43% more in dues alone to cover the trip. That doesn't even take into account the fact that you would have to buy 252 Vero points in the first place (at $65 each) rather than 210 BW points at $85.

Of course, the big assumption I'm making is that guests consider the Standard View rooms acceptable. Certainly there is some benefit to having a pool or water view rather than the front entrance, but on a dollars-and-cents basis, I don't personally apply a whole lot of value to that "upgrade."

 

[FLYNZ4]

Do the math again comparing SSR (avg $80) and lower MFs... and see how long it will take to break even. Now you can book an 11 month reservation in WDW and get your airline FF tickets etc far enough in advance to have a predictable vacation.
/Jim

Here is the math:

100 SSR = $8000
100 VBR = $6500

Delta = $1500
--------------

SSR MF's = $4.21
VBR MF's = $6.04

Delta = $1.83 * 100 = $183/year

--------------

$1500 / $183/yr = 8.2 years

To me... this tells me that if I do not care about the 11 month booking window, then VB might be better if if I plan to keep my membership for 8 or fewer years.

Influencers:

- If I want to vacation at VB... this would tip to scale toward VB ownership
- If I want a predictable vacation at WDW... this would tip the scale towared SSR ownership

Finally... if I want a beach resort... I would seriously consider non-DVC resorts. I would certainly give DVC extra consideration because of the ability to use points at WDW... but I doubt that would compensate for many great, and less expensive (esp resale) traditional timeshares located on beaches.

/Jim

 

[StayFLA]

Here is the math:

100 SSR = $8000
100 VBR = $6500

Delta = $1500
--------------

SSR MF's = $4.21
VBR MF's = $6.04

Delta = $1.83 * 100 = $183/year

--------------

$1500 / $183/yr = 8.2 years

To me... this tells me that if I do not care about the 11 month booking window, then VB might be better if if I plan to keep my membership for 8 or fewer years.

Influencers:

- If I want to vacation at VB... this would tip to scale toward VB ownership
- If I want a predictable vacation at WDW... this would tip the scale towared SSR ownership

Finally... if I want a beach resort... I would seriously consider non-DVC resorts. I would certainly give DVC extra consideration because of the ability to use points at WDW... but I doubt that would compensate for many great, and less expensive (esp resale) traditional timeshares located on beaches.

/Jim

But they already cancelled the expansion at Vero Beach and cancelled the original plans in California that was bought out by Marriott. I think they finally see the saturation of the theme parks and try to convince people to try vacations away from the theme parks -ala Adventures by Disney (not worth the points to me). They may be looking at the trades out of DVC and try to contain those into DVC by building Hawaii.

But you know there are times when rooms are standing available at VB and HHI because no one really wants to be there at that time of year.

Nor do I. But its a possibility. I find it more likely that one or both resorts will be hit with significant enough storm damage to either impact member fees more significantly than currently or just drive Disney to shut the resorts down. And I find it far more likely than that that Disney's expansion into offsite resorts are going to leave VB and HH owners who have "never had a problem getting something" have some problems - possibly not significant if you are flexible with your resort choice and dates.

OK, call me irrational, VB, 8 or fewer years. Not gonna happen. Previous post said I won't buy it. DEB & BILL, They will build it (Calif & Hawaii), and in two years time, people will buy it. They will limit the number of rooms to sell and if it works out, they will expand. With Calif & Hawaii, this is a test bed. They will sell and it will take off. For my sake, I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think so. The only way they can sell these is if the point chart fits our vacation habits. CRISI, I can see Disney walking away from destroyed property (sell it off). Owner's run that risk. I really believe home resort will be key in five years. Buy offsite and 7 MOs out there will be no rooms at peak times at WDW. I agree with DEB & Bill's post about trying to contain it. Let's face it, Disney want's it all for themselves and they will market to that end.

Ralph

 

[Deb & Bill]

Ralph, I totally agree with Grand Cal Villas. They will be sold out to West Coast members before anyone else even gets an opportunity to buy. But away from a theme park may be harder to sell.

Ever hear those other timeshare spiels about "buy here at Podunk, TX and you can stay at our Orlando resort"? Yeah, sure.

 

[StayFLA]

Ralph, I totally agree with Grand Cal Villas. They will be sold out to West Coast members before anyone else even gets an opportunity to buy. But away from a theme park may be harder to sell.

Ever hear those other timeshare spiels about "buy here at Podunk, TX and you can stay at our Orlando resort"? Yeah, sure.

Where's Podunk? I want it now!!!!!!!
Veruca Salt
AKA Ralph

PS: I think they'll go top dollar with limited occupancy. Keep it rich and small. Me asking questions in a tee shirt and blue jeans is not what they want.
good night

 

[DebbieB]

Even if the purchaser decides not to hold onto the contract for more than 20 years, when they do sell their contract, which will sell for more BWV or VB. BWV is currently averaging $20 more as you pointed out. The end result after they sell would be more spent toward VB.

I bought BWV in 1999 for $65 a point. I could sell it today for about $80-$85. If I would have bought VB, I would probably not get much more than $65.

 

[Joey7295]

I bought BWV in 1999 for $65 a point. I could sell it today for about $80-$85. If I would have bought VB, I would probably not get much more than $65.

My point exactly. VB has not seemed to be able to hold any kind of resale value, while the onsite resorts values have increased. When I bought at BCV in 2002, I went home from my Disney vacation in may undecided on whether to buy or not. After a couple of months of research I decided I wanted to buy. The 2 resorts available were BCV and VB. When I called my guide I told her I wanted BCV. She told me that I could not buy BCV from NY because they were not registered to sell BCV to NY and my only option from home was VB. I was insisting on wanting BCV and she told me it was only my home resort and there was no big difference because I could use my points at BCV anyway(boy was she wrong). I waited for BCV and in september I believe she called me and told me I could buy at BCV. The price was $75 per point. BCV points now sell for about $92 per point while VB is at about $65 plus VB MFs are $1.24 more at VB. I would be so upset right now if I had went with VB.

 

[FLYNZ4]

Ralph, I totally agree with Grand Cal Villas. They will be sold out to West Coast members before anyone else even gets an opportunity to buy. But away from a theme park may be harder to sell.

Ever hear those other timeshare spiels about "buy here at Podunk, TX and you can stay at our Orlando resort"? Yeah, sure.

My understanding is that there is a limit on how much the west coast members can buy in advance... so we are pretty much guaranteed availability for regular dvc members.

/Jim

 

[crisi]

Here is the math:

100 SSR = $8000
100 VBR = $6500

Delta = $1500
--------------

SSR MF's = $4.21
VBR MF's = $6.04

Delta = $1.83 * 100 = $183/year

--------------

$1500 / $183/yr = 8.2 years

To me... this tells me that if I do not care about the 11 month booking window, then VB might be better if if I plan to keep my membership for 8 or fewer years.

Influencers:

- If I want to vacation at VB... this would tip to scale toward VB ownership
- If I want a predictable vacation at WDW... this would tip the scale towared SSR ownership

Finally... if I want a beach resort... I would seriously consider non-DVC resorts. I would certainly give DVC extra consideration because of the ability to use points at WDW... but I doubt that would compensate for many great, and less expensive (esp resale) traditional timeshares located on beaches.

/Jim

If you want to be accurate, you need to throw time value of money calculations in there. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow due to inflation. Additionally, you should trend out dues rates - if I recall, not only does VB have higher dues, it has a steeper inflation curve.

If I were business consulting this decision, I'd recommending looking at a OKW original expiration contract (so you have apples to apples on end date - and because this is a 'home resort doesn't matter' discussion, if you are looking for value, OKW is a great onsite value for ownership), factoring in TVM, try to project a salvage value for both based on how long you were expected to own. Then, once you discovered which was cheaper doing all that, I'd still recommend you do a risk analysis. Staying at OKW the first two weeks of December is still being at Disneyworld. Staying at Vero Beach during that time because the waitlist didn't come through is hanging on a cold beach.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Part of the bet is we don't know what will happen.

The beach resorts have a chance of being hit by a hurricane and Disney will have the option of not rebuilding them. Or they have the option of a special assessment of owners.

The beach resorts could be spun off.

DVC could move big into offsite resorts (Hawaii followed by Colorado, upstate New York, Mexico, who knows) More offsite resorts will mean more competition for onsite rooms at seven months - unless current DVCers who tend to use their points at WDW change their habits to compensate)

But if you are a gambling person and understand the system (i.e. aren't expecting easy WDW stays those first two weeks of December), low purchase price may be appealing. Yeah, the dues will eventually eat up your savings if they keep the current trend, but that's part of the gamble - and money in your pocket now may be worth more to you than money you need to spend tomorrow.

Not to mention if it means the buyer doesn't have to finance the extra money, there is a savings there as well. Yes, it is all a gamble, but there is an inital savings. To project future savings or depreciation is only a guess as we have no real contants. Yes, we have trends, and they can't be ignored. So that is what the buyer has to take into consideration.

 

[tjkraz]

My understanding is that there is a limit on how much the west coast members can buy in advance... so we are pretty much guaranteed availability for regular dvc members.

/Jim

They're limited to 160 points, if memory serves.

The California priority period is only 2 weeks. I just don't see DVC being able to sell 50 rooms worth of points in a 2-week period to a rather small audience. AKV was pretty highly anticipated by current and new members alike, and it took over a year to sell the first 100 or so rooms.

Now, if they give current DVC members a priority purchase period before sales are open to the general public, that could make a huge dent in the resort. I wonder how aggressively ($$$$) they ill even bother to market the property to non-members since supply is so low.

 

[mcmeekin]

I bought HHI because I wanted points NOW. I had that much cash. I don't finance vacations. I am self employed and do not even *think* of when I might be vacationing more than 8 months ahead of time. I live in SC.

SO, If we want to go to the coast, we use our HHI points at HHI. If we want to go to WDW, we have multiple resort choices and are flexible on when and where to stay.

I find it odd that DVC would not have insurance to cover their structures in the event of a storm that they would hit everybody with a special assessment or choose to not rebuild. It doesn't have to be a coastal resort to be damaged by a storm. Florida can be hit from both sides by storms.

If the dues are $298/pt in however many more years it takes to get there, I don't see many people holding on to more than 10-20 points. I'd just walk away from it if I had to pay $298x150pts=$44,700/year in MFs. (oops - there was some math )

Y'all seem to be putting a lot of thought into this. I wish you well, but just buy points where you won't mind staying if you have to and enjoy wherever you go... you're on vacation



msm