Official Hurricane JEANNE Thread

[HumanCookie]

WTNT31 KNHC 151143
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST WED SEP 15 2004

...JEANNE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS RAINBANDS REACH EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABRERA SOUTHWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO AFFECTING OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
ESTIMATED FROM SAN JUAN RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE
65.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER
PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND JEANNE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE PASSING OVER
PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES ... 65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF JEANNE.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...17.6 N... 65.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN

 

[MO64RN]

Your info is not what I want to hear. We are cruising tomorrow and looks like the storm path will end up through Bahama's again. Thought we might make it to CC Sat and the magic will be there Fri. I don't know. Guess we will wait and see. I need to call my Dr. to get some Scopolamine patches though. I think we might be in for a rough ride.

 

[CM_Mom]

Unless Jeanne speeds up considerable, I think the Thursday cruise of the Wonder shouldn't have any problems. And you'll probably be far enough away that the seas won't be too rough.

Now how Jeanne will affect the Magic next week and the Wonder's Sunday sailing might be another story.

I HATE UNCERTAINTY.

 

[aeryncrichton]

Yes...

Someone on our cruise called Disney yesterday... (we are on Sun's Wonder cruise)

they said, NO changes YET, but a decision would be made tomorrow or Fri...

possibly.. change in iteranity,, to Key West or Cozumel...


Right now... We are supposed to be there Mon..

and so is Jeanne..

*screams in fustration*

GO AWAY STORMS/HURRICANES..

Not to mention... tonight through Fri, we're getting winds of 40 mph, and gusts up to 50 and flood watches from Ivan here in ATL.

 

[mbaker]

This should be interesting. Where would the Magic go? Bermuda or Mexico could be on the radar and multiple stops at Castaway Cay.

 

[selvey]

Recommendation for Sept. 25 Cruisers or those around that date: Watch the hurricane for yourselves and if it is anything like Frances, CANCEL when DCL gives you the opportunity. Trust me, you don't want to go through what any of us on the 9/4 week went through. It was Disney hell. Sorry to sound so ugly, but it was terrible and you will get no communication/information from DCL because they will be in chaos.
CANCEL and Reschedule.

 

[mbaker]

Some of us can't cancel. This is the only vacation time we get and it's go with the flow.

 

[GaTech]

Does anyone know how long on average it takes for a tropical wave->depression->storm->hurricane to leave Africa before it gets to Florida?

 

[shpilkus]

Originally posted by selvey
Recommendation for Sept. 25 Cruisers or those around that date: Watch the hurricane for yourselves and if it is anything like Frances, CANCEL when DCL gives you the opportunity. Trust me, you don't want to go through what any of us on the 9/4 week went through. It was Disney hell. Sorry to sound so ugly, but it was terrible and you will get no communication/information from DCL because they will be in chaos.
CANCEL and Reschedule.

Please, we know you had a horrible experience, but don't lump all 2000+ of us into your statement. Maybe we're nuts, but we were glad to be on the cruise, and with the exception of an added bus ride we don't have any complaints. And the bus ride was smooth and easy to boot. And yes, Disney called us - both families in our party. Our group would not call it "Disney hell" although we were certainly disppointed that the cruise was cut short. So just to set the record straight, those that cruised on the 9/7 sailing had 'varying experiences', let's put it that way. We're glad we didn't cancel. 4 nights on the Magic beats sitting at home.

Craig M

 

[allears]

Hopefully the timing of this and a subsquent storm won't give us much trouble. And for us cancelling may not be an option. We'll just be proactive and check in with DCL and the boards. Several other posters have mentioned that DCL did keep an automated message pretty up to date. So we'll keep our fingers crossed and hope for a lot of pixie dust.

 

[allears]

Gatech, that really depends on where they form. A couple of the storms have popped up right off our coast, I think Gaston just kind of showed up. And it depends on how fast they travel. I'm figuring that after Jeanne, if nothing forms before the beginning of the week, we should have no hurricane related trouble getting to the ship. Once on the ship, I don't care what happens. They'll keep us safe and in the sun as much as possible.

 

[TiggerKing]

GaTech:

I just had to say:

GO JACKETS!

 

[westjones]

We leave on Saturday for the 9/18 Magic 7 night. I really don't care where our ports will be (although I would love it if we could stop at CC--but I understand the weather can change that).

I am mostly concerned about having motion sickness. I bought some <b>Bonine</b>, does it really work? I would hate to spend the whole time in my cabin sick and miss out on everything.

Is there another medicine that works better? This is the one I had seen mentioned before on this list.

Thanks!
DJ

 

[selvey]

I need to correct my previous post - I meant to say "Pre-Disney Cruise hell." The cruise was fine.

Like many others, this had been our only week for vacation so we were stuck with it. We did "go with the flow" but after so much mess, even the CM's didn't know which flow we were supposed to go with!!

I am still recommending (especially if you have the hassle of cancelling/rescheduling flights, car rentals, etc.) that IF Hurricane Jeanne happens to be a possible interference with any of your cruise and IF DCL offers a cancellation, take it. There are too many uncertainties which DCL can't forsee either and what DCL calls compensation is a $200 onboard credit. The percentage off the cruise is not compensation, you are paying for what you get.

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT31 KNHC 151441
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 15 2004

...JEANNE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABREERA SOUTHWARD TO
ISLA SAONA. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ARE EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABRERA TO PUERTO PLATA. A HURRICANE
WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO
DOMINGO.

AT 11 AM AST...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES... 75 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THIS
IS ALSO ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM WEST OF ST. CROIX.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF JEANNE OVER PUERTO RICO
LATER TODAY AND NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY SUSTAINED AT HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND JEANNE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
BEFORE REACHING PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THERE WAS AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT FROM ST.
CROIX OF A WIND GUST OF 96 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 300 FEET DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF JEANNE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. ST. CROIX
HAS REPORTED 7 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR DURING JEANNE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 65.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

 

[allears]

selvey,

I can't remeber from your previous posts, but did you have travel insurance? If so will that cover the missing days and other expenses incurred? I also thought that DCL refunded part of the cruise and offered a discount for rebooking. I just can't keep it straight with all of the changes to the different sailings.

 

[aeryncrichton]

Originally posted by westjones
We leave on Saturday for the 9/18 Magic 7 night. I really don't care where our ports will be (although I would love it if we could stop at CC--but I understand the weather can change that).

I am mostly concerned about having motion sickness. I bought some <b>Bonine</b>, does it really work? I would hate to spend the whole time in my cabin sick and miss out on everything.

Is there another medicine that works better? This is the one I had seen mentioned before on this list.

Thanks!
DJ

YES... Bonine DOES work great...

about 3 yrs ago or was it 2??/ Hurricane Kyle circled Bermuda.... and we 'manuaved' between some 'other' storms... 20 ft waves...

other than I couldn't walk straight (Nothing to do /w med it was the waves) I was fine...

unlike lots of 'other' people, who got VERY sick...

non-drowsy too....

IF it looks like there are ant 'storms' in your cruise path, even IF NOT directly.. go ahead and take a pill the night before you leave to get it in yout system...

Slevey,

Jeanne is in our path right now, but we are driving... and all, and I start class the following Mon...

so, we can't cancell, and we don't care as long as it's not 4 days at sea....

no biggie to us...

 

[selvey]

aeryncrichton - I know what you mean about cancelling, we were kinda in the same boat - I do wish you luck and be safe.

allears - we do have the insurance and I have sent it off for the hotel and food - didn't include transportation because we would have had that anyway.

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT31 KNHC 151748
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST WED SEP 15 2004

...JEANNE MAKES LANDFALL OVER PUERTO RICO AS A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
FROM CABREERA SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABRERA TO
PUERTO PLATA...AND FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
WEST OF ISLA SAONA TO SANTO DOMINGO. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 40 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE CENTER OF JEANNE MADE LANDFALL ON
PUERTO RICO NEAR YABUCOA. THE FORECAST MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC AND NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY SUSTAINED AT HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
ONCE JEANNE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND IT COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. SAN JUAN RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO 63 MPH...101 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF JEANNE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...18.1 N... 66.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

 

[disneyohdisney]

We were going on the Sunday Wonder cruise. Looks like Ivan will be creating a flood, and our house might be flooded this weekend. That, added to the Jeanne possibilities, led me to contact DCL.

For $85 each we changed our reservation to December 12, same cabin price (that is a heavily discounted cruise date).

By then we should have shoveled the mud out of the house and be ready for a winter cruise.

I appreciated DCL offering the change, especially this close to the sailing date. They certainly weren't obligated to do so.

So, it looks like Jeanne could possibly be sitting just south of Port Canaveral on Sunday - with no way to skirt around it and go south? I wonder where the Wonder will be wandering next week.