Official Hurricane Ivan Thread

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 110234
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN NEARING JAMAICA...COULD REACH
CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. THIS
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST
OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA. HURRICANE
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY...AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL CUBA.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS
HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...
55 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE
ON FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING
THE EYE OF IVAN NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE EYE WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 155 MPH...250
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED
TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY 5 STATUS
BEFORE THE EYE REACHES JAMAICA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM. AMATEUR RADIO REPORTS INDICATE HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS OVER LARGE PARTS OF JAMAICA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 76.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 920 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

 

[erinch]

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
erinch,


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When the National Hurricane Center drops responsibility for a tropical system after it makes landfall, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center takes responsibility for issuing public advisories. Advisories are issued four times per day.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


this answers my question exactly

thank you so much

 

[CM_Mom]

The latest forecast show Ivan making potential landfall in the eastern panhandle of Florida south of Tallahassee. Although this won't be any walk in the park, IF Ivan keeps on this course, then Central Florida may dodge the bullet and the Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, Tampa areas will only get the outer bands of the hurricane instead of a direct hit.

They are saying that Ivan "should" weaken in the Gulf and maybe be down to a weak 3 or strong 2 before it makes landfall.

WEAKEN, WEAKEN, WEAKEN

And PRAY!

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 110855
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

...EYE OF IVAN PASSING JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO CRUZ TO CIENFUEGOS. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA FROM
SATIAGO DE CUBA TO CIENFUEGOS.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS DISCONTINUED FOR HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF JAMAICA AND ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM...SOUTH
OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

AFTER A WOBBLE TOWARD THE WEST...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK...IVAN SHOULD MOVE NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED...BUT IVAN COULD
BECOME STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

 

[DisneyNutMary]

Originally posted by CM_Mom
They are saying that Ivan "should" weaken in the Gulf and maybe be down to a weak 3 or strong 2 before it makes landfall.

I sure hope so, Florida does not need another strike.
CBS morning news just did a piece on how hurricanes form. I never knew this but the warmer the water it passes over, the more power the storm picks up. Right now Ivan is passing over some of the warmest waters, let's hope the gulf is cool enough to calm this beast.

 

[HumanCookie]

Here's a link to the sea surface temperature in that area. Not a good sign.

Sea Surface Temperature

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 111134
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF JAMAICA...HEADING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO
CIENFUEGOS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...
SOUTH OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...IVAN SHOULD MOVE NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED...BUT IVAN COULD
BECOME STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 78.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[HumanCookie]

Interesting Infrared picture of Hurricane Ivan.

He's trying to suck in all the forces of nature around him. He has a mind of it's own. Intended Target Gulf Coast.

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 111446
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

...EYE OF THE HURRICANE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
JAMAICA...STRONG WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ADJUSTED THEIR
WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE EYE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES...50 KM SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA AND 190
MILES...305 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IVAN HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...IVAN SHOULD MOVE NEAR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED...BUT IVAN COULD
BECOME STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB...27.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 FEET...
LOCALLY HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N... 78.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 925 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 111742
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

...IVAN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES...70 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA AND 170
MILES...270 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IVAN HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IVAN SHOULD RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...IVAN SHOULD BE
MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED...BUT IVAN COULD
BECOME STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 921 MB...27.18 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 FEET...
LOCALLY HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N... 79.0 W. EXPECTED
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 111931
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

DATA JUST RECEIVED FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE
THAT IVAN HAS REGAINED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO
AN EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 914 MB AND THE ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 165 MPH...270 KM/HR. THESE NEW VALUES OR FURTHER
UPDATES WILL BE INCORPORATED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 112033
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

...IVAN REGAINS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE STRENGTH...HEADING TOWARD
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT
145 MILES... 235 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK...IVAN SHOULD BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
ON SUNDAY.

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[CM_Mom]

HumanCookie, glad to see I'm not the only one who's obsessive about Ivan.

It looks like he's going to go a little more west which is a break for folks in Central Florida. I've been praying that those poor folks had a little relief.

My main problem now is that my In-Laws live in the Panhandle north of Fort Walton so they're way too close to the current path than I like. Unlike DD, they aren't on a ship that can sail around the storm.

Guess we'll pray more.

 

[yamahaboy]

My in-laws are also near Ft. Walton in a town called Freeport. The last we heard, they were going to evacuate two days before landfall if they felt they were in the path and now it looks like they are. The only other hurricane they had in the area came through about 7 years ago and they were actually in Chicago for visiting us at the time!! That was almost worse for them but at least they weren't in harm's way. They had to rent a car to drive home because they couldn't get a flight. Hopefully they will get out early enough and have plenty of gas in the tank!

 

[CM_Mom]

Yamahaboy, our family are in Crestview which is about 30 miles inland up on I-10. Fortunately when you turn on their street you go UP a hill that's at least 100 feet higher than the highway so we never worry about flooding, just wind and tornadoes.

But you can be certain that we will watch Ivan VERY carefully.

In fact, they just released the 8:00pm advisory

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N... 79.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 912 MB.

That's a category 5 but Ivan moved directly west during the last 3 hours. Maybe there's hope after all.

 

[yamahaboy]

Unfortunately, my in-laws are very near the bay that separates the Destin area from Ft. Walton Beach (called Choctawhatchee Bay according to my atlas.) I think they are actually walking distance but I'm not sure as I haven't been to their new house. Their house is a single story, all brick but they live in a wooded area with huge trees all around and on their property. The last hurricane to hit the panhandle scared them back up to Chicago for 3 years but one snowstorm of 25 inches several years ago sent them back. LOL I think at this point they would rather have snow!!

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 120227
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IVAN HEADING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
WESTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT
105 MILES... 170 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 910 MB...26.87 INCHES. THIS IS THE
SIXTH LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...18.3 N... 80.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 910 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 120225
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

THE HURRICANE HAS DEEPENED A LITTLE MORE THIS EVENING AND THE LAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE OBSERVATION...BY DROPSONDE FROM THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS...WAS 910 MB. IVAN RANKS SIXTH FOR LOWEST ATLANTIC BASIN
CENTRAL PRESSURE BEHIND CAMILLE IN 1969 AND MITCH IN 1998 AT 905 MB
EACH...ALLEN IN 1980 AT 899 MB...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE AT
892 MB...AND GILBERT IN 1988 AT 888 MB. BOTH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND IVAN COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE. HOWEVER...THERE IS
NO SKILL IN PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGES FOR SUCH EXTREME TROPICAL
CYCLONES. IT SUFFICES TO SAY THAT IVAN IS LIKELY TO HAVE A
DEVASTATING IMPACT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN
CUBA. AFTER IVAN MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR...SO SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN 2-3 DAYS.
NOTWITHSTANDING...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL AND
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE AIRCRAFT
FIXES GIVE AN OVERALL MOTION OF ABOUT 285/7. AS A WEAK LOW MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...SO A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...IVAN SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND MOVE THROUGH
THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IT IS
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

BEAR IN MIND THAT 3-4 DAY FORECASTS ARE FAR FROM EXACT...SO THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHEN AND WHERE IVAN WILL
MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES.

FORECASTER PASCH

 

[sjcubedofct]

Oh boy, this doesn't look good for Grand Cayman, eh? I'm guessing future Western Carribean itineraries will be changed? We'll just have to wait and see, I suppose...

 

[CM_Mom]

No clue about changes but I've read posts from several folks who think Costa Maya would be a better port than Grand Cayman.

I just hope the folks on Grand Cayman have prepared and that the damage isn't as bad as expected.

I continue to be fascinated by the weather and the hurricane while wishing that we were watching this awesome phenomenon out in the middle of the Atlantic!

Ivan is getting REALLY personal now since he's heading directly for my in-laws. And I'm one of those people who can't tell in-law jokes because mine are wonderful dear people who have loved me for the last 31 years.