Oddsmakers - parks back to running normally by Memorial Day weekend

[squirk]

I really don’t think the parks are going to reopen on 4/1 as currently planned. That seems overly optimistic.

That said, we have a trip planned 5/23-5/30.

I know the situation is “fluid” and “dynamic”, and that layperson guesses are just that - guesses.

But what does your gut tell you - are parks back to normal by Memorial Day weekend?

 

[Boopuff]

I agree with you. I think with all the "social distancing" going on I'm hopefully optimistic that this virus will die down sooner, rather than later. My trip is June 1-7 so I'm planning and praying!

 

[siren0119]

The CDC has recommended no gatherings of 50+ people for the next eight weeks, so I would call that iffy at best. Knowing that a big chunk of Disney's workforce was sent home when they cut the DCP kids loose, it will take time for them to get back to full operational capacity, They aren't going to be able to just throw the doors open again for business as usual the day after the restrictions are lifted.

I'm a fan of hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. If I had a May or June trip planned, I would make sure I knew the specifics of cancellation for all aspects of my trip, and hold out until the last possible minute before making a final decision.

 

[tallguy001]

Guessing 8 week minimum - https://www.npr.org/2020/03/15/8162...ngs-of-50-or-more-people-for-the-next-8-weeks

Disney will assuredly follow these guidelines.

 

[Ben E N]

I am definitely a not any sort of expert here, but I will guess that by late May, yes, the parks will be open and will be running "normalish". College kids will still be off work, people will still be nervous, people will not have as much expendable income, but a sense of normalcy will hopefully start to return by then.

 

[mrsap]

Let’s hope this vaccine works


https://www.foxnews.com/health/how-close-are-we-to-a-vaccine

 

[lorenae]

My trip is 5/10-5/16 but I don’t think it’ll happen.

 

[Geomom]

Yes, I think they'll be reopened by Memorial Day. I have a trip starting 4/18. While I'm staying optimistic...I'm also a realist and will not be surprised if everything is still closed. DD has refundable airfare, and ours was booked with Southwest points. Hotel is with DVC pts and they're currently letting people cancel without pts going into holding. And we have AP's. So, no need to cancel now...we'll just wait and see how things play out. Of course with the schools now closed for 3 weeks in MA, the school system will probably want to get rid of April vacation...but they really can't do anything to people that already had plans... Ug.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I won't return until after I am vaccinated against this. Even if the pandemic subsides, if it is still out there, it could return at any time just like the flu.

 

[squirk]

The CDC has recommended no gatherings of 50+ people for the next eight weeks, so I would call that iffy at best. Knowing that a big chunk of Disney's workforce was sent home when they cut the DCP kids loose, it will take time for them to get back to full operational capacity, They aren't going to be able to just throw the doors open again for business as usual the day after the restrictions are lifted.

I'm a fan of hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. If I had a May or June trip planned, I would make sure I knew the specifics of cancellation for all aspects of my trip, and hold out until the last possible minute before making a final decision.

The impact of the reduced workforce might be offset by the reduced attendance when the parks re-open. Maybe?

I am not worried about losing any money if I have to cancel. Southwest is always pretty flexible, and Disney appears to be flexible as well with rescheduling in the midst of all this.

I am torn between staying the course and just rescheduling now and avoiding the pearl-clutching entirely.

 

[squirk]

Let’s hope this vaccine works


https://www.foxnews.com/health/how-close-are-we-to-a-vaccine

As that article says, even if it does work, it's hardly helpful regarding my trip in May, unfortunately.

 

[mrsap]

Sorry. Was just wishful thinking. Hoping it will help keep us all safe. Trips are on the back burner right now when it comes to priorities, unfortunately, but hope you get to go

 

[sponica]

My trip is 5/10-5/16 but I don’t think it’ll happen.

I'm 5/14-5/19 which we moved UP from July because I got pregnant and I didn't want to be in the Florida heat at 32 weeks pregnant. I already started having the conversation with my 3 year old that we might not be able to go because of a germ (like she'd understand what a virus is...)

8 weeks is 5/10, so I'm holding onto a shred of hope that we might get some normalcy by then....

 

[zskid00]

Yeah, we're scheduled to arrive on May 9 and I'm really concerned we might not be able to make our trip considering we're just under 8 weeks out.

 

[flea1267]

We're scheduled for May 10-May 16 - right at the 8 week cut off! I am so anxious! I know it's a first world problem but still!

 

[Mainsail Minnie]

We're scheduled to begin our trip on May 30th. It's hard for me imagine WDW still being closed at that time. Over eight weeks will have passed, and the heat will really be on, weather-wise, which will likely deter the virus. Disney can't hemorrage money forever, and ordinary people are eventually going to want to resume normal life. I also predict that the official pronouncements about how to deal with the virus will shift from "hunker down" to "use reasonable precautions in your daily life" once the economy has been hurt badly enough by what's going on now.

 

[emmabelle]

We’re 5/8 for four nights at least we have July 4th week planned too. I still want to go in May though. Probably should try and move May trip.

 

[squirk]

We're scheduled to begin our trip on May 30th. It's hard for me imagine WDW still being closed at that time. Over eight weeks will have passed, and the heat will really be on, weather-wise, which will likely deter the virus. Disney can't hemorrage money forever, and ordinary people are eventually going to want to resume normal life. I also predict that the official pronouncements about how to deal with the virus will shift from "hunker down" to "use reasonable precautions in your daily life" once the economy has been hurt badly enough by what's going on now.

That is my guess (my hope?) as well. But given how much profit Disney makes year over year, I wonder if they could break the laws of mathematics and actually hemorrhage money forever.......

 

[FCDub]

2% chance in my unscientific opinion.

 

[Boopuff]

I was thinking about this today. If all these closures continue, unemployment will go through the roof, places can't pay people to sit at home... I just don't see theme parks sitting vacant for months on end.