Odds of passing ROFR

[davidl81]

I think I found a very attractive deal on some AKV points (that I absolutely do not need). June use year, 100 points for $10,000 plus closing. 2021 points are used so next points come on June 1st 2022 (all 100). Does anyone think I have a better than 25% chance at passing ROFR? The deposit was only $1000 so I figure it’s worth the shot!

 

[igrsod]

I think I found a very attractive deal on some AKV points (that I absolutely do not need). June use year, 100 points for $10,000 plus closing. 2021 points are used so next points come on June 1st 2022 (all 100). Does anyone think I have a better than 25% chance at passing ROFR? The deposit was only $1000 so I figure it’s worth the shot!

It's hard to tell. You will have to let us know how it goes.
When I bought our first contract, 4 years ago, we got AKL 100 points for $100 per point, fully loaded. We ended up offering them $107 per point because we wanted it to pass ROFR, and we thought it was fair considering they had paid the dues on the banked year of points.

 

[ArmyChaplain Matt]

you never know, 2
years ago bought BWV loaded contract for $107/point when things were around $115-$120 but it was international seller…so who know good luck great find

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Never know. I think you have a decent chance of passing ROFR. It also depends on how many direct requests they have.

 

[sethschroeder]

100 points for $10,000 plus closing

Not a single $100/point contract passed last month ($102 was lowest)with $108 or less being part of routinely taken contracts.

They have bought back as high as $111 in April and $110 in May.

Back in March AKV had a better chance and February would have been a guarantee pass.

I find it unlikely it sneaks through for that price.

 

[davidl81]

Not a single $100/point contract passed last month ($102 was lowest)with $108 or less being part of routinely taken contracts.

They have bought back as high as $111 in April and $110 in May.

Back in March AKV had a better chance and February would have been a guarantee pass.

I find it unlikely it sneaks through for that price.

I tend to agree with you Seth, but it’s not like I need the points. If it gets taken no big deal I was without $1000 for a month or so. If it passes I can use the points, or honestly could resell them for $135-$145 a point and basically make a free couple thousand dollars minus taxes

 

[princesscinderella]

Best of luck! I hope you get that amazing deal!

 

[RoseGold]

You might get bought back. Contracts more expensive than yours have been taken lately. But maybe those were loaded or seller paid closing or who knows.

 

[achinforsomebacon]

I saw that contract and debated on it. Don't really NEED the points, but for that price it's a steal (also matches my UY). Then I got to thinking about ROFR and what kind of offer above asking I would need for it to pass. I also figured it was long gone and the website just wasn't updated. I think you posted a similar experience for the cheap OKW contract.

I hope you pass ROFR, although if you don't, it will make me feel better about passing on it.

 

[davidl81]

I saw that contract and debated on it. Don't really NEED the points, but for that price it's a steal (also matches my UY). Then I got to thinking about ROFR and what kind of offer above asking I would need for it to pass. I also figured it was long gone and the website just wasn't updated. I think you posted a similar experience for the cheap OKW contract.

I hope you pass ROFR, although if you don't, it will make me feel better about passing on it.

Well if it makes you feel better someone bid over asking price and the buyer took that offer. Oh well, they offer really low price deals from time to time so I’ll try again if another pops up. I don’t need the points either, but o can always use more.

 

[ajiuo]

I’m also kind of wondering how likely my offer is to get approved by Disney. I’ve been wanting to make a purchase for two years or more. I finally saw a contract for 180 points for AKV. I was hoping to get something for 175 so this was close to that range. It seems like 160 and 200 are really common for that resort but not 175-180… So that worries me that Disney might want it.

My offer for 119 per point was accepted. 2021 was stripped witch is fine because I don’t think I can go this year. 40 point of next year we’re also used… it’s March use year. I wanted February or March so that’s perfect. Seems like I don’t see March very often witch also makes me think Disney might want it.

I kind of plan on making October my regular time… but I might go in late March early April on occasion… so I think March will work for that.

keeping my fingers crossed… looks like most ROFR is going a little less then a month now days.

I just wish I would have made a move a year ago when Prices were so low.

 

[ScubaCat]

60% of the time you'll pass.....every time

 

[Red Dog Run]

Aug, 2020, I bought an OCT (100 for $100 a point). It passed, but that was then. I don't think it would pass.

 

[DonMacGregor]

60% of the time you'll pass.....every time

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

I think I found a very attractive deal on some AKV points (that I absolutely do not need). June use year, 100 points for $10,000 plus closing. 2021 points are used so next points come on June 1st 2022 (all 100). Does anyone think I have a better than 25% chance at passing ROFR? The deposit was only $1000 so I figure it’s worth the shot!

Well, we are 5 for 5, and 4 of them were insane deals, so good luck!

edit: just saw that buyer went with another offer. GL next time!

 

[sethschroeder]

My offer for 119 per point was accepted.

You are at 99.9% chance of passing. The highest buyback the last 12 months was in April for $111/point.


Having it be 180 doesn't really matter you normally don't see that point count because AKV was sold with a minimum of 160 points so its unlikely that someone decided they needed an extra 15-20 points per year.

 

[Rush]

Having it be 180 doesn't really matter you normally don't see that point count because AKV was sold with a minimum of 160 points so its unlikely that someone decided they needed an extra 15-20 points per year.

That explains all the 160 point contracts at AKV. I knew there had to be a reason, just wasn’t sure what it was. I assumed it was what was needed for a studio for a week in a certain time of year, but your answer makes much more sense.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Over the years we have purchased fourteen resale contracts and never once had one taken in ROFR. We've closed on five of those within the last six months. I'm big on the bottom line and don't overpay, and most of the time get what would be considered a bargain.

We picked up two 25 point OKW @ $100 PP and a 50 point SSR @ $110. I have another SSR 50 point in ROFR @ $135 but with seller paying MF's which essentially brings it down to $128 (loaded with '20 & '21 points) but I expect it to pass.

DVC does seem to have one or two "favorites" at any given time. Perhaps we have been lucky to get in just before they look at the resorts we are buying?