Odds of getting bumped due to capacity constraints?

[fabfemmeboy]

I’m not sure if Shanghai is the same as WDW, but what did they do when it opened?

The bigger difference in Shanghai isn't the government involvement, it's that Shanghai is also much more of a local park than one that caters to week-long vacationers. Their park capacity is normally 80K (so about 4/5 of MK's capacity or pretty close to DHS's), but they only have 1220 rooms on-property! Compare that to WDW's 30,000. But for that park that makes sense because most guests are from the Shanghai metro area (which is huge - 34 million - or more than 10% of the total US population). Because almost everyone is local, and because it's a one-gate park, they don't have nearly the same need for hotels that Florida does, so in this case there isn't much to apply from their experience to ours.

That said, they have 2 hotels - one deluxe and one value. It looks like the value may still be closed, but the deluxe opened before the park. I'm sure even that's empty right now given that you have to reserve day-of space and no one can come in from out of the country.