Oct. 16-23, 2010 - Bring Back the Magic

[truck1]

Uh-oh, have you seen this? Looks like it's one of the strongest two hurricanes this year and the fastest-accumulating since the 1970s??

http://www.providingnews.com/hurricane-paula-2010-strengthened-to-category-2.html

Who ever wrote that is geographically challenged.Paula is still in the Carribean.The only thing they got right is that shes a Cat 2. Theres no way that she could make it from where she is to the Keys in less then a few hours. It would take her prob about 4-5 days under ideal conditions.

If anything Id take the advice of the National Hurricane Center, whos sole responsibility is to find track and warn of theses storms.Even the local weather guessers take there info from the NHC.

 

[truck1]

Heres the intermediate advisory. They are still showing that shell be a tropical storm by sun, after clipping the west coast of Cuba, and staying away from Coz and the Caymans.

WTNT33 KNHC 121738
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE PLANE FINDS PAULA WITH 100 MPH WINDS...
...THIS ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 85.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

 

[Happy100]

630-7pm

then add us to the grills list (happy100) Darnella and family.

 

[truck1]

then add us to the grills list (happy100) Darnella and family.

Got it. 2 Adults and 2 children? and you have your own transportion correct?

 

[Happy100]

Got it. 2 Adults and 2 children? and you have your own transportion correct?

2 adults and 1 child. yes we have our own transportation. thank you for asking.

 

[truck1]

Ooops. Ill change that. No problem. I know some who are going, dont have a way to get there, thats why I ask.

 

[njprincess]

then add us to the grills list (happy100) Darnella and family.

Woo Hoo

 

[truck1]

Before I forget, someone came up with a good idea, especially for the kids. (Ok. US bigger kids can play too.)
They came up with a DCL scavenger hunt and anyone that wants a copy let me know.

Ill also be doing the Hidden Mickey tour in the terminal, and anyone else that wants to join in let me know.

 

[truck1]

Hurricane Paula hasn't even hit Cozumel yet, so how can it NOW hit the Florida Keys on October 12, which is TODAY???

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Forgot to ask you. Do you have a way of getting to Grills on Fri?

 

[mylittleprincess]

Hope you all have fun!!! Our flight doesnt arrive until 6:20. So by the time we get car rental & drive to CIS probably wont be til 8ish. Also want to go to Ron Jon & Walmart too.

 

[annichan]

Ill also be doing the Hidden Mickey tour in the terminal, and anyone else that wants to join in let me know.

Oh great, I'd love to do a Hidden Mickey tour of the terminal! I shall keep an eye out for you then, so I can tag along with the kids

 

[annichan]

Who ever wrote that is geographically challenged.Paula is still in the Carribean.The only thing they got right is that shes a Cat 2. Theres no way that she could make it from where she is to the Keys in less then a few hours. It would take her prob about 4-5 days under ideal conditions.

If anything Id take the advice of the National Hurricane Center, whos sole responsibility is to find track and warn of theses storms.Even the local weather guessers take there info from the NHC.

Okay, that's good to know! I guess I'll just stop googling Paula, as I wouldn't know how to interpret what I find anyway

 

[TIGGER/POOH4]

Better news on Paula. We now look like a Western It is moving east much faster.

 

[pacomom]

Does any weather indicate that we wouldn't be able to get out to sea on Saturday? I keep seeing conflicting reports and would love some word that we'll at least be able to board the ship and set sail-even if we're not sure where we'll end up. Also, THANK YOU for the weather updates. I come here now instead of weather sites to check in with Paula

 

[Denine]

For me, it is too early to worry about Paula.

We will be at WDW on Friday and arriving at the terminal Saturday morning. We need to pick up our Owner's Locker.

We will finish packing this evening while DD is at PSR. We will be missing a meeting about her First Communion and First Confession while we are gone, but I am guessing they will fill us in. I wrote her teacher a note that she will be missing the next 2 weeks of PSR and the meeting.

Is it time to leave yet?

DH has a meeting with his new manager in the morning. Just what you want to do on your last day before vacation right? It is his 3rd new manager this year.

 

[TIGGER/POOH4]

Another thought. If the storm goes north a little bit then we could do CC on Sunday and then head to Grand Cayman after Paula goes by. I would not mind a double dip.

 

[truck1]

Does any weather indicate that we wouldn't be able to get out to sea on Saturday? I keep seeing conflicting reports and would love some word that we'll at least be able to board the ship and set sail-even if we're not sure where we'll end up. Also, THANK YOU for the weather updates. I come here now instead of weather sites to check in with Paula

I just looked over the 5 pm advisory from the NHC. Basically, and the map that Tigger is putting up are saying this:
1.Its a small storm. At its widest its only 120 miles or so in diameter.
2. Its going to die. Soon.
3. By sun, itll be off the north/north east coast of Cuba as a Tropical Depression.(winds less than 33 mph.)
4.It shoudnt at this point affect us at all.
Even if the storm stayed alive on it current or previous track, its still small enough that we could have sailed around it, and never really been affected by it.

 

[JOANNEL]

Yep, it looks like we should be ok, just might be rough Saturday night until we get to the keys!

 

[truck1]

Oh great, I'd love to do a Hidden Mickey tour of the terminal! I shall keep an eye out for you then, so I can tag along with the kids

No prob. Were going over early in the morn also. We should be on the 1000 shuttle from CIS.

 

[danandnan]

Yes, you take a ferry to St John's and then a bus/truck to the beach.

No more shopping!!! Maybe just for Rum but I have more T-s hirts and sweat shirts that I can ever wear!!!

Sounds good. I need another Captian Morgans