Not sure if I’ve gone crazy

[VGCgroupie]

I might have explained that poorly. I would like to buy some points there. Not a lot, due to the restrictions. Almost surely resale. So maybe enough for four or five nights a year, no more than that. I’m just trying to get a sense of how to gauge when VDH is getting sort of toward the bottom of its drop. I don’t think we’re there yet. But I’m not sure how close we are. The California economy… With its locals that go to Disneyland… Is a very different economy than Florida. I’m trying to figure out what to factor in.

Oh I see. It’s for sure not bottomed out, there’s not often resales for VDH yet which plays a big part. I’d say maybe 2 years would be a better time to buy resale cost wise but then again you miss out on 2 years worth of vacations to save only some money up front. Will be interesting to see how many hit the market after dues hit.

 

[Girlstar30]

I think there was a guess but I don’t remember seeing any concrete info saying yes for sure. Many thought Pixar would be converted but it can’t be.

Why cant Pixar be converted So they cant add a dvc wing there or convert some hotel rooms? We really liked that hotel

 

[Girlstar30]

The things hurting VDH are ToT, restrictions and longer walk to the park. Those are three big negatives imo. It will never be the price of vgc.

But it has the nostalgia of Disneyland hotel, the awesome new room layout and only has one other hotel to compete with. For me that puts it between riv and vgc resale prices. I think 160 is about right with Poly and VGF

 

[VGCgroupie]

Why cant Pixar be converted So they cant add a dvc wing there or convert some hotel rooms? We really liked that hotel

Something about the land it’s on IIRC

 

[Girlstar30]

Something about the land it’s on IIRC

California really screwed them. I wonder if it was worth it for them to not make the deal with the city and have to add ToT. It def is slowing down sales

 

[Wedgeout]

A whole lot of elements were involved with that TOT decision & city agreements made to get that tower. Everything done at that resort is like playing a giant game of jenga, keeping everything stable with each player involved.

Honestly, I don’t think they care about sales since Aulani entered the scene. Sell out the points fast or slow…It doesn’t matter. They have a resort hotel to book out and make profits while buyers chip away at the point total until eventually having the club members paying for most of its operations & upkeep. An expiration date comes & they are gifted it all back for free.

 

[atthebeachclub]

So question here, I've been charting resale at VDH. It's mostly moving in one direction--down. Similar to RIV a couple years aback. RIV has settled mostly at the low end at around $110 to $115 in terms of asking price. Where do people think resale VDH will settle per point? West Coast is a different market than FL. Also there are far fewer contracts at VDH (due to size of building and declarations) than RIV.

I don't know what pricing will do long term on VDH, which is why I made sure my contracts aren't too big there, in case in some distant future I do need to offload them (hopefully never). Disneyland is interesting because there are so few on site hotels and so many good neighbor hotels outside the bubble, some of which are not expensive. But those hotel alternatives are not in the bubble, and the last time I went to Anaheim and was outside the bubble (for a convention), I ran into a lot of less than savory stuff. So the bubble has some value. And Disneyland Hotel and Pixar Pier are crazy expensive to stay at.

Additionally, there are many cute/somewhat inexpensive motels nearby, such as Candy Cane Inn. These places are great, but I honestly wonder how long until some of this gets resold and old motels get torn down and other things replace them, or new expensive hotels with ToT replace them. And then VDH starts looking even better. Will this happen? I don't know. But last time I was there, some of the lodging outside the parks was very long in the tooth.

Long term, who knows what the resale value will be (because the restrictions DO suck), but I think the usage value for owners will be there.

 

[Lumpy1106]

I don't know what pricing will do long term on VDH, which is why I made sure my contracts aren't too big there, in case in some distant future I do need to offload them (hopefully never). Disneyland is interesting because there are so few on site hotels and so many good neighbor hotels outside the bubble, some of which are not expensive. But those hotel alternatives are not in the bubble, and the last time I went to Anaheim and was outside the bubble (for a convention), I ran into a lot of less than savory stuff. So the bubble has some value. And Disneyland Hotel and Pixar Pier are crazy expensive to stay at.

Additionally, there are many cute/somewhat inexpensive motels nearby, such as Candy Cane Inn. These places are great, but I honestly wonder how long until some of this gets resold and old motels get torn down and other things replace them, or new expensive hotels with ToT replace them. And then VDH starts looking even better. Will this happen? I don't know. But last time I was there, some of the lodging outside the parks was very long in the tooth.

Long term, who knows what the resale value will be (because the restrictions DO suck), but I think the usage value for owners will be there.

Disney owns a lot more property along that side than you might think. They've been chipping away at it for decades. The days are numbered on those properties for sure.

 

[AstroBlasters]

They can't build "timeshare only" at DL - the City of Anaheim won't allow it (or at least they didn't when they ended up building the DLH tower instead). DLH is weird in that you have to pay the tax per point when you stay there - makes it cost a lot more than staying at the other DVCs. I would not own there. YMMV

This is not correct. Disneyland Forward absolutely allows for new Disney timeshares. Disney will likely never build a hotel that is not at least mixed use timeshare ever again in the US.

You also pay a tax when you stay in any other hotel there… and higher that at VDH.