Not drinking the cool aid on resale!!

[Dean]

Always enjoy your posts Dean. I agree with alot of what you said not all. Not worth parsing the differences. I have stayed at all DVC resorts and highly prefer Grand Floridian. BTW...what ever happened to VGF Ben? I miss those Dean vs. Ben battles. Lol

I don't know, hopefully he's sitting by the pool at VGF. Drinks are on him.

 

[z28wiz]

Resales are fine if you are just going to the parks for the rest of your life! We were fortunate to purchase all our points before the changes in ownership rules in March 2011 as to purchases being direct from DVC or a resale from outside DVC. We plan on experiencing all options for vacations through DVC and we have done that many times already. "Under the new policy, Members who purchase from anyone other than Disney Vacation Development, Inc., on or after March 21, 2011, will not be eligible to use those Vacation Points to make reservations within the Concierge Collection, the Disney Collection or the Adventurer Collection. Those Vacation Points will instead be valid only for reservations at Disney Vacation Club resorts, as well as for RCI exchanges, Club Cordial and Club Intrawest." Losing the use of points in all those travel options certainly reduces the value of resales.

Not quite true, the only things you lose is Disney stuff minus the concierge collection. You can still use your points to travel the world under RCI. All of which is a bad use of your points. To make DVC worth it they should be used at DVC resorts.

Sent from my iPhone using DISBoards

 

[ELMC]

I realize that most dvc members on this site, and many others, think resale is the only way to go and give that advice to all that inquire about the process. I agree that resale is great option, but believe there is an important fact overlooked.

Looking at the DVC resorts in Orlando and California, and looking at there opening sales prices, I really don't see how there is much, if any savings if you buy early when the resort opens. Just a few resort statistical data below:

OKW 1991 $51 pp 2014 resale around $70 pp

BWV 1996 $62.75 pp 2014 resale around $80 PP

WL 2000 $72 pp 2014 resale around $80 pp

BCV 2002 $80 pp 2014 resale around $95 pp

BLT 2009 $112-$5 (incentive) $107 pp 2014 resale around $ 95pp

VGC 2009 $112 pp 2014 resale $135 pp

Now with VGF going up to $165 a point later this month, and most likely will end up at $175 to $ 185 before it sells out (opened at $145; resale going for around $135), I think the best advise would be to buy DVC direct but early when the resort first goes on sale. You will get the full 50 years, get the full DVC benefits (I know not the best use of points, but like the option) easier process, and in many cases the value will rise. I think mainly the high demand small resorts like VGC, BCV, VGF and soon to be Poly, were and are smart plays for direct buying early.

It seems right now people are happy to be picking up 2042 to 2054 end date contracts for more or the same money then they were sold for 10 to 20 years ago, and are pounding there chest about the resale market. A little confusing.

After reading the entire thread, I don't think it is a good use of time to get into a statistics battle with you. That's already happened in this thread and it didn't seem to be very productive. That aside, I disagree with three statements you have made here (all in bold). I'm not sure if this is a new account for you, but if not, I think that the three months you have been on here have not been long enough to provide perspective. VGF have been on sale for over a year now and in that time, most of the direct vs. resale analyses I have seen have had the caveat that if you want to own specifically at VGF, then direct is the way to go. I don't think anybody is advocating holding off on buying a new resort until resales become available at a lower price. In fact, most of the advice I have read in the past year has actually suggested NOT to do that.

People who are honestly analyzing direct vs. resale are doing so on existing resorts in the present day and looking at the options. From there it becomes an issue of patience and the value one places on convenience vs. savings. To purchase BLT today at $165 direct or $95 resale is a legitimate conversation to have. Whether or not to purchase BLT today for $95 vs. $107 six years ago is not. I can see how you would use those numbers to make your argument, but it is not an honest analysis because it is not comparing numbers in the same time period. Simply put, when people purchased BLT for $107 in 2008, they did not know what it would be worth in 2014. Sure, one could speculate, but there was no certainty. To now discuss that analysis assuming there was certainty is fallacious, in my opinion.

Go back and search the VGF threads from May-July of 2013. I think you'll find that most of the posts concede the point that if staying at VGF is your main goal, then buying direct as close to opening as possible is the way to go. This effectively renders your entire premise invalid.

Finally, I think your statement that "in many cases the value will rise" no longer holds true. There are currently 7 VGF contracts for sale at The Timeshare Store and ALL SEVEN are listed below the lowest historical sale price. And that doesn't even account for the commission on the sale. The fact of the matter is that VGF opened at prices almost 40% higher than the opening of BLT. One has to account for this monumental shift in pricing when projecting the potential for future increases in value of DVC. Owners at five out of the last six constructed DVC resorts would be in the red if they needed to sell today, both in real dollars and in dollar values adjusted for inflation. The only exception is a tiny resort in California with no other DVC options. I think the days of buying DVC direct, using it, and then getting all your money back are gone, sadly.

 

[crisi]

I don't think anybody is advocating holding off on buying a new resort until resales become available at a lower price. In fact, most of the advice I have read in the past year has actually suggested NOT to do that.

I have. IF you have time to wait. And especially if you are going to finance. If affordability is an issue, and you need the newest "buy direct" resort, I feel pretty strongly you are better off saving your money and waiting until the resort is more affordable AND you have more cash available.

Which means delayed gratification - possibly skipping a few trips or taking them on the cheap offsite through Skyauction, while you save for ownership.

If you can afford it - buy away. Heck, go ahead and pay extra for it if you want. Most of us aren't trying to figure out what to do with our $3M Wall Street bonus though.

 

[JimMIA]

I have. IF you have time to wait. And especially if you are going to finance. If affordability is an issue, and you need the newest "buy direct" resort, I feel pretty strongly you are better off saving your money and waiting until the resort is more affordable AND you have more cash available.

Agree. The "need" for an instant gratification purchase of a brand new resort is a timeshare salesman's best friend.

 

[ELMC]

I have. IF you have time to wait. And especially if you are going to finance. If affordability is an issue, and you need the newest "buy direct" resort, I feel pretty strongly you are better off saving your money and waiting until the resort is more affordable AND you have more cash available.

Which means delayed gratification - possibly skipping a few trips or taking them on the cheap offsite through Skyauction, while you save for ownership.

If you can afford it - buy away. Heck, go ahead and pay extra for it if you want. Most of us aren't trying to figure out what to do with our $3M Wall Street bonus though.

Fair point. When writing my post I was operating under the assumption that the due diligence had already been done and the decision to buy had already been made. At that point I was only looking at the decision regarding timing of the buy and the potential pricing.

But you bring up a good point. This simply isn't a "I want it so I'm going to buy it" type of purchase, like a new shirt or something you see on Amazon.

 

[R0cky]

People who are honestly analyzing direct vs. resale are doing so on existing resorts in the present day and looking at the options. From there it becomes an issue of patience and the value one places on convenience vs. savings. To purchase BLT today at $165 direct or $95 resale is a legitimate conversation to have. Whether or not to purchase BLT today for $95 vs. $107 six years ago is not. I can see how you would use those numbers to make your argument, but it is not an honest analysis because it is not comparing numbers in the same time period. Simply put, when people purchased BLT for $107 in 2008, they did not know what it would be worth in 2014. Sure, one could speculate, but there was no certainty. To now discuss that analysis assuming there was certainty is fallacious, in my opinion.

^This in so many ways. We just placed a bid on OKW. After number crunching, we figured 50-60 a point was much more reasonable than 165 a point. Should we have purchased OKW back in 1991 when it first when on sale? Yeah... if they would've sold to a 13 year old kid with a paper route!

Now that I am in my thirties, financially stable, and in a position to purchase a DVC membership, I look at the numbers that are current. I was not worried about 5 years ago, or even 10 years ago what they were worth because I wasn't in the market to purchase.

The cost of VGF at 165 a point and the points per day to stay there was higher than any other WDW DVC resort. That meant for a family of 6 we needed a hefty initial buy in. 200+ points and that's borrowing points from future stays for a week trip.

Now, VGF doesn't rev my motor all that much. I mean its nice, service at that resort is amazing, but it's not like i HAVE to stay there.

IF we bought at VGF and wanted to stay at another resort we would be essentially paying 165 pp to stay at AKL or BWV or BCV. Which is 60-80 dollars more a point than if i bought at one of those hotels. Not a good investment of points.

Now, our other option was to buy in at a different resort. something with a shorter contract but a value at point price. We found a contract in the 50-60 pp price range (at OKW).

We could buy a 200 point contract 10-15k vs 33k. Sure, we only get it until 2042, but when i think about that, i will be 63 years old at the end and there are always new options that spring up over time!

Sure, I will not have a home base of VGF or Poly or even BLT for that matter. I will end up being a 7 month warrior and try my hand at upgrading to a closer resort.

Will i be sad when I am "stuck" at OKW? No, not at all. In fact, OKW looks like a great home base to me!

Am I willing to sacrifice priority for a difference of $20,000??? Yes Please!

 

[crisi]

Fair point. When writing my post I was operating under the assumption that the due diligence had already been done and the decision to buy had already been made. At that point I was only looking at the decision regarding timing of the buy and the potential pricing.

But you bring up a good point. This simply isn't a "I want it so I'm going to buy it" type of purchase, like a new shirt or something you see on Amazon.

Unfortunately, for too many people "due diligence" is "I want it, this is what Disney is selling now, and I can afford the payments."

 

[diznyfan4life]

I realize that most dvc members on this site, and many others, think resale is the only way to go and give that advice to all that inquire about the process. I agree that resale is great option, but believe there is an important fact overlooked. Looking at the DVC resorts in Orlando and California, and looking at there opening sales prices, I really don't see how there is much, if any savings if you buy early when the resort opens. Just a few resort statistical data below: OKW 1991 $51 pp 2014 resale around $70 pp BWV 1996 $62.75 pp 2014 resale around $80 PP WL 2000 $72 pp 2014 resale around $80 pp BCV 2002 $80 pp 2014 resale around $95 pp BLT 2009 $112-$5 (incentive) $107 pp 2014 resale around $ 95pp VGC 2009 $112 pp 2014 resale $135 pp Now with VGF going up to $165 a point later this month, and most likely will end up at $175 to $ 185 before it sells out (opened at $145; resale going for around $135), I think the best advise would be to buy DVC direct but early when the resort first goes on sale. You will get the full 50 years, get the full DVC benefits (I know not the best use of points, but like the option) easier process, and in many cases the value will rise. I think mainly the high demand small resorts like VGC, BCV, VGF and soon to be Poly, were and are smart plays for direct buying early. It seems right now people are happy to be picking up 2042 to 2054 end date contracts for more or the same money then they were sold for 10 to 20 years ago, and are pounding there chest about the resale market. A little confusing.

Good afternoon, I would like to know where you received the resale prices (per point). Is that through Disney or through a different company/source? I just called Disney today and to buy resale at BCV, BWV, or WL it is $130.00 pp with a use year expiring in 2042. Saratoga is $130.00 pp with a use year of 2054. VGF is $155 pp, and like you said going up at the end of the month.
Thanks in advance.

 

[GOOFY D]

Good afternoon, I would like to know where you received the resale prices (per point). Is that through Disney or through a different company/source? I just called Disney today and to buy resale at BCV, BWV, or WL it is $130.00 pp with a use year expiring in 2042. Saratoga is $130.00 pp with a use year of 2054. VGF is $155 pp, and like you said going up at the end of the month.
Thanks in advance.

The prices you were quoted were "direct" costs as they are directly from DVC. Resales are purchases from current DVC owners (usually through resale companies) and the prices vary as they are negotiated.

 

[JimMIA]

Good afternoon, I would like to know where you received the resale prices (per point). Is that through Disney or through a different company/source? I just called Disney today and to buy resale at BCV, BWV, or WL it is $130.00 pp with a use year expiring in 2042. Saratoga is $130.00 pp with a use year of 2054. VGF is $155 pp, and like you said going up at the end of the month.
Thanks in advance.

Go to the top of the page and click on the DVC Resale Listings link and you'll see dozens, if not hundreds, of DVC contracts offered by The Timeshare Store, the long-time sponsor of this board.

They are a Florida-licensed and regulated real estate broker who specializes in DVC resales -- from an existing owner, NOT from Disney. The Timeshare Store (often abbreviated TTS or TSS) is not the only broker active in the resale market, but they are the most well-known, and in my opinion, the best.

Depending on which resort you purchase, there can be BIG savings purchasing resale.

 

[lions1995]

I would love a cup (or two) of DVC Kool aid. Yum

 

[ELMC]

Unfortunately, for too many people "due diligence" is "I want it, this is what Disney is selling now, and I can afford the payments."

Yes, I agree with this statement. Unfortunately, for the purposes of this thread, it introduces another variable that further complicates an already complicated discussion. The OP was discussing purchasing a new resort direct vs. waiting on that same resort strictly from a price per point perspective, so I tried to keep my comments on that topic.

That being said, I think your point is a good one and should not be overlooked. I would also add that there is a subtle but meaningful difference between being able to afford something and being able to afford the payments.

 

[crisi]

Yes, I agree with this statement. Unfortunately, for the purposes of this thread, it introduces another variable that further complicates an already complicated discussion. The OP was discussing purchasing a new resort direct vs. waiting on that same resort strictly from a price per point perspective, so I tried to keep my comments on that topic.

That being said, I think your point is a good one and should not be overlooked. I would also add that there is a subtle but meaningful difference between being able to afford something and being able to afford the payments.

He's also talking about the general advice given - and the general advice given around here includes the financial part of spending $10k now rather than $20k now. Not that there aren't plenty of people out there who can afford whatever they want, but most people who come asking our advice talk in terms of "worth" and "saving money" - they aren't indifferent to out of pocket costs now or long term cost of ownership (because the point cost for a GF room is so much higher than most of the other resorts, you need more points, more points is going to mean more dues)

If someone comes on and says that they are in their 20s, just married, looking to start a family in the next few years, and "will DVC save us money" and "we love Disney, we love the Grand Floridian, and we know we will want to stay Deluxe for the rest of our lives" my right eye starts twitching.

(And I don't get why anyone indifferent to the cost of ownership would buy DVC. Disney's suites are much nicer if money isn't an issue).

 

[sndral]

The problem with a strict price per point analysis multiplied by the number of years left in the contract is that not all points are created equal. Thus, I decided to do an analysis that was meaningful to me as I contemplate adding on - I chose a villa I would book (1 br,) with a view I would like, for my preferred early Dec. vacation time (which happens to be when you need to own where you want to stay) for my desired 9 nights. I multiplied those points by resale price I believed I could get then divided by years left in the contract (from 2015 - the earliest I could realistically close and get my 9 night early December vacation) to get a notion of price per stay in today's dollars:

OKW* $67 x 209 pts. = $14003/42 yrs. = $333 per year (MF $1158/yr.)

SSR $70 x 236 pts. = $16520/39 yrs. = $423 per year (MF $1159/yr.)

AKV -sav. $76 x 273 pts. = $20748/42 yrs. = $494 per year (MF $1630/yr.)

BLT-lake $98 x 299 pts. = $29302/45 yrs. = $651 per year (MF $1429/yr.)

VWL $69 x 268 pts. = $18492/27 yrs. = $685 per year (MF $1530/yr.)

BWV -Pr. $81 x 264 pts. = $21384/27 yrs. = $792 per year (MF $1587/yr.)

BC $93 x 259 pts. = $24087/27 yrs. = $892 per year (MF $1500/yr.)

VGF-st.** $155 x 329 pts. = $50995/49 yrs. = $1041 per year (MF $1780/yr.)

*OKW extended contract
**VGF current direct price

Needless to say, the cost of current annual MFs is substantially more than the per year buy in price.

Total units per area:
DTD - SSR (1260) + OKW (761)= 2021
Epcot - BC (282) + BWV (532) = 814
MK - BLT (428) + VGF (147) = 575 monorail + VWL (181) = 756
AK - AKV (708) = 708

 

[murphy7573]

LMFAO !!! E-bay alert !!! VGF Loaded contract up for bid, get your paypal accounts loaded up !!!

600 point contract !!!

8 days left to bid...

Opening Bid a miniscule....

$78 Grrrrr !!!

That's $78,000 for all you older folks !!!

I just wanna' meet the "smart" direct buyer(s) on this contract !!!

 

[murphy7573]

LOL, if my meager math skills are correct, only $130 a point...Not positive on the current direct price per point but does sound like a savings...If you can afford, lol to buy 600 points !

There is a 250 point BWV contract up for bid starting at $1.00. 9 days left before BWV bidding ends !

 

[DougEMG]

While a direct purchase of a new resort might hold its value over time, the big difference for me buying direct vrs resale is the difference in the cash required up front. No matter how nice VGF is, I can't justify spending $160 per point when I can get OKW for $60 per point with 2 years of free points. If what you want is to save money, you pretty much have to look at resale.

 

[Dean]

The problem with a strict price per point analysis multiplied by the number of years left in the contract is that not all points are created equal. Thus, I decided to do an analysis that was meaningful to me as I contemplate adding on - I chose a villa I would book (1 br,) with a view I would like, for my preferred early Dec. vacation time (which happens to be when you need to own where you want to stay) for my desired 9 nights. I multiplied those points by resale price I believed I could get then divided by years left in the contract (from 2015 - the earliest I could realistically close and get my 9 night early December vacation) to get a notion of price per stay in today's dollars:

OKW* $67 x 209 pts. = $14003/42 yrs. = $333 per year (MF $1158/yr.)

SSR $70 x 236 pts. = $16520/39 yrs. = $423 per year (MF $1159/yr.)

AKV -sav. $76 x 273 pts. = $20748/42 yrs. = $494 per year (MF $1630/yr.)

BLT-lake $98 x 299 pts. = $29302/45 yrs. = $651 per year (MF $1429/yr.)

VWL $69 x 268 pts. = $18492/27 yrs. = $685 per year (MF $1530/yr.)

BWV -Pr. $81 x 264 pts. = $21384/27 yrs. = $792 per year (MF $1587/yr.)

BC $93 x 259 pts. = $24087/27 yrs. = $892 per year (MF $1500/yr.)

VGF-st.** $155 x 329 pts. = $50995/49 yrs. = $1041 per year (MF $1780/yr.)

*OKW extended contract
**VGF current direct price

Needless to say, the cost of current annual MFs is substantially more than the per year buy in price.

Total units per area:
DTD - SSR (1260) + OKW (761)= 2021
Epcot - BC (282) + BWV (532) = 814
MK - BLT (428) + VGF (147) = 575 monorail + VWL (181) = 756
AK - AKV (708) = 708

When you break it down to the individual level it does get very complicated but it'd difficult to do that on a thread partly because it'd be different every time but mostly because so much of it is emotional and preferences and the people asking the questions really don't know the answers themselves for how they'll use it or their own long term preferences. To me there are potential savings and potential value. IMO savings is compared to what one would have spent without buying DVC and value is the real benefit of getting bigger, better, etc. I tend to look at DVC like a high risk investment where I want return of principle over 10 years, assume 4% increase of dues but assume new resorts will increase faster for a few years (see BLT), feel the time value of money (TMV) is core and that if you can't pay cash for it you can't afford it. When you add in the TVM it becomes as important, if not more so, than the yearly dues if they stay proportional.

The other issue comes when you start to compare between resorts with SSR & VGF being the bookends for WDW in terms of long term cost/value. In that situation looking at VGF and given the sheer differences, the TMV becomes an overwhelming issue with the dues close behind because they are almost certain to increase faster than 4% until they catch up to where they should be going forward. Think VB dues as the best comparison if one is lucky.

With that approach the length becomes somewhat less important. Remember while RTU remaining length is a potential asset and saver, it is also a potential risk and cost. Making the assumptions either you or I have made is pretty risky over even 27 years much less 50 but the big difference is that it's critical to your model and much less so to mine.

While a direct purchase of a new resort might hold its value over time, the big difference for me buying direct vrs resale is the difference in the cash required up front. No matter how nice VGF is, I can't justify spending $160 per point when I can get OKW for $60 per point with 2 years of free points. If what you want is to save money, you pretty much have to look at resale.

Probably a different way of looking at the TMV issue I raised above. I know you know this but for the sake of discussion for others who may read here I will say that for a very small subset of people it likely is worth it. Basically those who can truly afford it (pay cash, not affect their life in general by doing so) and who will actually use and take advantage of those points for VGF. They will basically be 2 groups and 2 groups only. Those who have both enough DVC knowledge AND experience to know they'll use those points that way and those that are GF only people and would't buy in otherwise but have enough Disney experience to know that. OTOH, those who buy in new to DVC with VGF as their first purchase without that knowledge AND experience are unlikely to get the the value and really are unlikely to save money over cash other than the few that luck out and end up in one of the 2 groups above anyway, something they have NO way of knowing up front. Then there will be those that end up buying VGF but feel trapped due to the realities of the costs and value lost using DVC for other things.

 

[disneynutz]

Boy you people really like to get into the details.

To make it easy to understand for most of us reading, Disney/DVC is a luxury vacation that will cost you a couple hundred thousand dollars over a 30 to 50 year period and Disney will make some insane profit.

Bill