NextGen/xPass Making the News Again

[Robo]

If the estimated costs for Xpass are $1 billion as stated...

And, I have never thought that they were anywhere near that...

(But, don't mind me.)

 

[Reddog1134]

If the estimated costs for Xpass are $1 billion as stated then Disney is probably projecting $2-4 billion in additional profits depending on how they structure their business cases.

They have stated they are spending $1 billion on "Nextgen" of which Xpass is just one part.

 

[mbrittb00]

I guess all this makes sense, and I give you props for attempting to figure out the math behind it, but one thing that keeps bugging me is that if they send more people over to the "short" line (be it FP or XPass or a combo of both) than the "short" line will get longer.

If the goal really is to get select guests through the lines faster (those who take advantage of the Xpass system, or who hold FPs), then they have to keep those lines short. The only way I can see them doing that is by either taking away FP entirely, or taking a percentage of FPs and devoting them to XPass guests. If they try to keep the same number of FPs and then add Xpass volume on top of that, then the "short" lines just get longer.

Right now the goal wait time in the FP line is under 15 mintues, right? If they give out the same number of Xpasses as they do Fastpasses, then that could potentially double the wait time to 30 minutes, which I don't see as an advantage, and certainly not something I would pay for!

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think that this is the goal. Based on what I've heard and read, it seems like the goal is to "control" the # of people at a particular attraction at any given time, thus reducing the ride times for everyone. For instance rather than having 5,000 people in line for Space mountain at 10am when there is no one in line at say the Jungle Cruise, the idea would be to "shift" some of those people over to Jungle Cruise thus lowing the wait times at SM with only a limited if any increase in wait time at Jungle Cruise.

I think that it is likely that the xPass system will be tied to the KTTK card and thus only available for resort guests. Making it a tiered system where Deluxe resort guest would get a better in park perk than value resort guest would go against the way that Disney has done business up until now. That said, Disney historical practice was to keep guests well informed about ride closures, and with the recent events with TT, it makes one wonder if there is some fundamental change in corporate policy.

Personally I don't like the idea of the xPass being tied to staying on site. With a family of 6 the only place we can stay on site (unless we were to book two rooms), would be at the value suites, and even that is debatable. They state that they can sleep 6, but that is based on the sleeper recliner sleeping two, which ain't going to happen. So essentially for us to stay on site it would cost a minimum of $250 to $280 a night for two value rooms (during regular season including tax). Or we could stay offsite at say Windsor Hills in a 3 BR house with a private pool for $125 a night. And while Disney doesn't really care about my plight, and they want as many people as possible to stay on site, they should also remember that they do still rely on offsite attendance for a significant portion of their income. Creating a "perk" that would alienate offsite guest could be an extremely bad idea. Disney currently has ~30,000 rooms onsite. Considering that the average capacity of each room is ~3.5 people, that give an onsite accommodations of ~105,000 people. I believe (and correct me if I am wrong) that the park capacities of the Magic Kingdom and Epcot are 50k, and Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios are 35k to 40k. That gives an over all park capacity of around 175k. On site accommodations can only account for about 60% of that. And that doesn't even take into account that some people will take a day off, go to Typhoon Lagoon, Blizzard Beach, etc. . .

 

[mbrittb00]

The flaw in your thinking is that ride capacity is not constant for all rides. Some rides can increase or decrease their capacity as needed. The way Xpass could help that (or at least help Disney) is to be able to more accurately predict when the capacity of those rides needs to be increased or decreased. Running a ride at a higher capacity than needed would result in more wear and tear which, in turn, requires more maintenance and upkeep which is costlier. The reverse is also true in that the quicker that Disney can get people on and off a ride the quicker the patron is able to get back to buying things (you can't buy anything standing in a line). The overall impact of Xpass will be cumulative from a Disney perspective and all the little improvements and efficiencies will add up to increased profits. If the estimated costs for Xpass are $1 billion as stated then Disney is probably projecting $2-4 billion in additional profits depending on how they structure their business cases. You don't do this type of project just to break even on it.

Right now they count the number of people going through the turnstiles at each attraction. This would work just as well for determining on the fly how many car to have in an attraction. And while it is true that the xPass pre-distribution would give them some for-knowledge of what is coming historical data and room reservations can be used to make the same estimations.

Or look at the villas...but they will run a LOT more. To fit six, it's a 2BR unit, and they run around $800/night. But you get a kitchen, and it will actually sleep 8 (or 9 at some).

Suites at the deluxes seem to all be in club level, so you're paying even more, but a "deluxe room - club level" which sleeps 6 at WL is $655.

So saying there's not much difference between an AoA suite that sleeps 6 at $240, and a deluxe room that sleeps 6 at $600+, is a wee bit off...

Or I could stay offsite at WH in a 3BR house with a private pool for $125 a night.

Don't get me wrong I'm not a mizer or penny pincher. In fact we are set to spend over $8k (including transportation etc) on our upcoming trip. But it is hard for me to spend 4 or 5 times a much for 1/2 the space and comfort. If in the end the xPass system is tied to onsite accommodations and it becomes (practically) necessary in order to tour the parks, then they will probably drive us onsite, however, our trips will have to be more spread out than they have been. And then I may have to become a mizer.

 

[WillAustin]

Creating a "perk" that would alienate offsite guest could be an extremely bad idea.

A perk designed to encourage more people to stay on-site will by its very nature be a negative to off-site guests. I don't think there is any way around that. I'd imagine most of the revenue comes from on-site guests, at least per capita.

 

[KrazeeK120]

Then people will not stay there and they will stay at WL.

I'm not sure how you can jump to that conclusion. It's like comparing apples and oranges.

I believe you can fit up to 6 people in a room at AoA. You can only fit 4 in at WL. If I had 4 kids (which I don't, actually I have no kids), I would have to get 2 rooms at WL, whereas I would only have to get 1 at AoA and it would be considerably less expensive.

The bottom line is, most people are going to choose to stay where they can afford to. There are probably people out there who enjoy the values or moderates, even though they can afford deluxe.

I don't really see that Xpass is going to have a huge effect on where people stay, especially knowing that Fastpass will still be available to all guests.

Oh yeah, the good old standby line will still exist too. It's not like anyone is being barred from the rides here.

 

[Robo]

I don't really see that Xpass is going to have a huge effect on where people stay,


1- especially knowing that Fastpass will still be available to all guests.

2- Oh yeah, the good old standby line will still exist too. It's not like anyone is being barred from the rides here.

1- That may be making a very large assumption.
I'm going to assume that all FP will be taken for headliner attactions by
10-11AM.

2-Which will make the good old standby lines very much slower than now.

 

[OhioDisneyDad]

But there is a maximum capacity that cannot be exceeded, and the peak days you would expect to be running it at full tilt. And I have doubts that the frontrunners like Soarin' and TSM ever operate at less than full capacity except for very rare times.

Then, if they base Fastpass/xPASS issue on expected capacity needs, and they are wrong, what happens?

And as far as not spending while in lines - well, that was the argument for Fastpass as well...and reportedly that didn't have the desired effect either.

Everyone keeps assuming that Disney is doing this to make things easier for the customer (which it may very well do) but the primary factor is going to be profit. On a peak day (a 10 crowd day) the need to maximize capacity is moot because the place is packed. Everything is going to be running at full tilt anyway. The incremental benefit (and profit) is gained on the non-peak days because there are fewer people in the park. Being able to squeeze just a little bit more from customers is the key here.

 

[doconeill]

Everyone keeps assuming that Disney is doing this to make things easier for the customer (which it may very well do) but the primary factor is going to be profit. On a peak day (a 10 crowd day) the need to maximize capacity is moot because the place is packed. Everything is going to be running at full tilt anyway. The incremental benefit (and profit) is gained on the non-peak days because there are fewer people in the park. Being able to squeeze just a little bit more from customers is the key here.

But this part of the discussion doesn't really have much to do with profit, if any, to the company, but the effect of xPASS on guest experience. xPASS doesn't change how they may cut back on capacity on non-peak days, other than they have to maintain a percentage of xPASS/Fastpass vs. standby slots, which they must already do for Fastpass as it is.

 

[OhioDisneyDad]

But this part of the discussion doesn't really have much to do with profit, if any, to the company, but the effect of xPASS on guest experience. xPASS doesn't change how they may cut back on capacity on non-peak days, other than they have to maintain a percentage of xPASS/Fastpass vs. standby slots, which they must already do for Fastpass as it is.

It has everything to do with profit. Do you really think Disney is just doing this without considering profit? It's all inter-related. Being able to know where people are in the park, how many are in the park, how many are in the stand-by line, how many are in the fast pass line, etc. all can factor in to capacity and queue management. The RFID bands make all this info available to park managers in REAL TIME. They may not be adding an extra train to BTR but they could be making more fast passes available as needed (or whatever).

 

[GreenCntryGirl]

The things I would like it for would be scheduled character meet & greets...I can see where that might help a lot of parents with small children. I would also like it for preferred seating at fireworks/Illuminations.

I'll be curious to see how the wristband goes because I don't generally like wearing anything other than a ring. A previous poster mentioned that they would be like the ones with the portable drives and maybe I could handle that. With my sensory issues, what's OK one day could very well make me feel like my skin is crawling the next day.

I don't care for the idea of being "tracked" all day long, though. Yes, I know there are cameras all over the earth, etc., but I think it would feel weird to be carrying a sort of tracking device.

 

[pineview01]

They can make a wrist band with all this importand data but, not a band for a kids height???????????????

 

[mbrittb00]

They can make a wrist band with all this importand data but, not a band for a kids height???????????????

Amen to that. Other parks have figured out how to do this. Not sure why Disney can't.

 

[doconeill]

It has everything to do with profit. Do you really think Disney is just doing this without considering profit? It's all inter-related. Being able to know where people are in the park, how many are in the park, how many are in the stand-by line, how many are in the fast pass line, etc. all can factor in to capacity and queue management. The RFID bands make all this info available to park managers in REAL TIME. They may not be adding an extra train to BTR but they could be making more fast passes available as needed (or whatever).

I don't think we're talking about the same thing. I'm not talking about what Disney's ultimate intent is for xPASS. OF COURSE they aren't going to throw a billion dollars just to make guests they already have happier (if that even actually makes them happier, which remains to be seen. I'm talking about how xPASS will potentially affect guest experience, good or bad, in terms of wait times which has little to do with their ability to cut capacity on certain attractions to reduce wear and tear. Yes, they'd be able to better monitor capacity needs, especially with foreknowledge of how many xPASS reservations were made in the days prior, but it still works out to be a roughly fixed percentage of the overall capacity that day, and therefore reducing the capacity along with a corresponding reduction in the xPASS/Fastpass slots allocated will not likely change the overall experience. In fact, what it would do is INCREASE the standby wait times regardless of xPASS/Fastpass simply because they are running at reduced capacity, unless even at minimum capacity, they still are draining the standby line.

Or, more appropriately, the standby wait time would remain relatively constant regardless of the park crowd level.

Man, I'm rambling now...

They can make a wrist band with all this importand data but, not a band for a kids height???????????????

Of course they COULD make one. The problem is that you could get a taller kid measured, get his height band, then take it off and put it on a shorter kid. Old argument, doesn't solve the problem.

 

[Robo]

The RFID bands make all this info available to park managers in REAL TIME. They may not be adding an extra train to BTR but they could be making more fast passes available as needed (or whatever).

What situation could be helped by issuing more FP's?

It's difficult to discuss this without factoring the finite nature of ride capacity.

Adding or subtracting FP's does not affect ride capacity.
Adding additional HOURS of OPERAION... now THAT will increase ride capacity.

 

[Robo]

I don't care for the idea of being "tracked" all day long, though. Yes, I know there are cameras all over the earth, etc., but I think it would feel weird to be carrying a sort of tracking device.

If it gets me a faster ride experience, I'll stay on my cell phone with Guest Relations all day, and give 'em a running commentary of where I'm headed next.

 

[pineview01]

Of course they COULD make one. The problem is that you could get a taller kid measured, get his height band, then take it off and put it on a shorter kid. Old argument, doesn't solve the problem.

That is my point! And they want to put your life on one???

 

[mbrittb00]

Of course they COULD make one. The problem is that you could get a taller kid measured, get his height band, then take it off and put it on a shorter kid. Old argument, doesn't solve the problem.

Of course they could use a wrist band that isn't transferable like the ones they use for the MNSSHP and MVMCP. Which is exactly what other parks do. Having a measuring station outside the turnstiles at each park would allow every child to be measured and given a color coded wristband corresponding to various height levels. The when they get to the ride all the CMs have to do is look a the wristband and will immediately know if the child is the right height, without having to measure them over and over again. Plus it would remove all the ambiguity for the parents and the child to know which rides they are tall enough for before walking up to the ride. Once when my youngest was just slightly over 40 inches (like a 1/2 inch) he got measured 3 times during one trip through Star Tours (once at the entrance, once at the end of the cue, and then a 3rd time by another CM when we were waiting in front of the loading doors). It was a very uncomfortable situation for both us and him.

 

[mom2rtk]

Of course they could use a wrist band that isn't transferable like the ones they use for the MNSSHP and MVMCP. Which is exactly what other parks do. Having a measuring station outside the turnstiles at each park would allow every child to be measured and given a color coded wristband corresponding to various height levels. The when they get to the ride all the CMs have to do is look a the wristband and will immediately know if the child is the right height, without having to measure them over and over again. Plus it would remove all the ambiguity for the parents and the child to know which rides they are tall enough for before walking up to the ride. Once when my youngest was just slightly over 40 inches (like a 1/2 inch) he got measured 3 times during one trip through Star Tours (once at the entrance, once at the end of the cue, and then a 3rd time by another CM when we were waiting in front of the loading doors). It was a very uncomfortable situation for both us and him.

First hard ticket party we went to my daughter's wristband fell off her hand in the first hour.

And if you're talking about loading height info onto the RFID wristband, that won't work. Those are going to have to be removable so they can take them off at night. (Unless they plan to load and reissue them daily.) And as long as there's a traditional FP in the parks in some form, many folks will want to remove them to give their FP runner.

 

[mesaboy2]

As doconeill said, this subject has been hashed and rehashed before. The height requirements application for wristbands is a safety and liability issue for Disney, not just one involving park admission or guest convenience or habits. Therefore it is a whole different ball of wax.

If you want to discuss further, I suggest a different thread. Let's get this one back on track please.