News Round Up

[lockedoutlogic]

While I agree that spontaneity has been missing from WDW in recent years, we have to accept that Disney has to deal with the increasing number of guests in their parks in one way or another. In the past, spontaneity meant that some families got to enjoy 10 experiences during their day whereas others only got to enjoy 5, even if they both paid the same price. FP+ has now changed that.

As self-interested individuals this system may sound as the worst thing ever, but to be honest, I think that FP+ seems to be fairer in response to the increasing number of guests. We are being forced to become planners, that's true, but when you have a theme park, in which every single operation is important, filled to capacity, spontaneity is out of the question.

Ok...

I'm down with your argument with one small caveat...

The parks are nowhere near "crowded to capacity"
In the past...there were dead months on the schedule...now there really aren't any... those ghost town days in September, January and May are now approaching "average" crowds.

Which means it could actually take some attendance away from the boom times - and actually thinning out crowds - while still posting an increase on the year.

It's just a pet peeve of mine when people say "they're so crowded"....

No... Because they suffered a real time
Loss in the big crowds between 2001-2004 or so...and again 2008-2012. There's just more people in the offseason.

We went July 12-20 this year... And honestly it was almost light. That never happened in the first 30 years.
But I bet it's rather "thick" for October as I write this.
The people in July think "wow... It's hot and crowded". And the people today think "wow... It's not as hot but it's crowded"
They are both wrong.

If you think it's crowded/packed... Watch out if Disney gets their way. Rude awakening time from the dust induced slumber.

 

[rteetz]

Lost of work happening at AK infrastructure mostly but all well needed. This park will soon be a true full day park.

http://www.orlandoparksnews.com/2014/10/animal-kingdom-update-new-african.html

 

[rteetz]

Robert Downey Jr. Has signed on for more iron man.

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/robert-downey-jr-to-join-captain-america-3-exclusive-1201312229/

 

[beer dave]

I think that if you think all that hardware is to help you "maximize your vacation"... You're a touch misguided...

Now there are some MARGINAL advantages to the system... I actually like it for what it's worth...but this is In noway a "guest" system.

This is about tracking, predictability, and leading people in a certain direction.

That is to Maximize sales and limit overhead. Their theory is that if everyone is "streamlined" and happy... Then they spend more.

This is the "stripped" analysis I was referring to-- If you reach one level above this, you can see where tracking, predicting, and cost reduction will allow higher profits and yes dividends, but still allow for some increased revenue to go towards the guest experience. You can't say that the parks are not being added to at this point, and just about 6 months after the final roll out. Also, in regards to length of construction and drawing out announcements... how long has it been since they announced the renovations to be done in HS? Oh they didn't yet. and construction has been started...TOTS... The rest is just speculation. Just because they are increasing revenues by streamlining doesn't mean we are going to get a lesser vacation. In my experience FPP and such has made it better than in the recent past.

But recreation is the antithesis of "streamlined"...the longer the day - the better to I would guess the vast majority.

Do I want to be able to knock off the "must dos" before noon (or in the case of studios and animal kingdom... The whole park)?
Sure.

But then I want the freedom to do other things that aren't necessarily giftshopping for the next 10-12 hours.

What's stopping you? Go see country bears, tiki room, Stitch, laugh floor, tom sawyer, ride the river boat, the train, carousel of progress, watch some street performances, eat some ice cream, grab a pork shank, ride the boat to the campgrounds and see the horses, sit at a lounge.... and if all these things are too stale, that leads to the over exposure that keeps coming up... It's all just one rung up.

And that is not going to be feasible with a fully prebooked schedule of EVERYTHING for everyone.

The rubber will meet the road if this goes the way I fear...an Orwellian "profit direction system"

I honestly think it was a somewhat solid theory that went either off the rails or is way too soon.

This was designed by the equivalent of the "angry lone nut". They needed to saturate the offerings first...because they - again - have been complacent for a long time.

But now it gets interesting...as the cheap suit board was only ok with the outlays (my guess) if it shows tangible, bottomline profits. I wouldn't bet on that being the case.

.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I think your format is a little screwy there, Dave...


But if I get the crux of your argument...it sure seems like you're telling me to "get off their backs"

That's disappointing. Because they are a solid ten years behind on development for Disney parks... And the bottomline is that you can't make a defense of that unless its to first acknowledge that they want more money from the same goods - actually less in notable cases.

That's how you solve a problem: identify the base issue first and then compliment the response when warranted. Profits and revenues do not eliminate this problem. The end does not justify the means due to longterm erosion/weakening of the product. Are you seriously telling me the dollar for dollar return for the customer is better now than it was 10,15,20 years ago? You may think that's an acceptable slide...I'm just not playing on that kickball team.

But things are getting interesting for Disney all the way around. There are financial issues starting to come to light that is painting a different picture it seems. If there is massive construction starting at studios - it represents a fundamental shift in operations...as in there hasn't been any announcements.

Something has a fire lit. Or it's smoke and mirrors...and if I think that... They've earned it.

 

[faneuil]

Ok...

The parks are nowhere near "crowded to capacity"
In the past...there were dead months on the schedule...now there really aren't any... those ghost town days in December, January and may are now approaching "average" crowds...

If you think it's crowded/packed... Watch out if Disney gets their way. Ride awakening time from the dust induced slumber.

It's funny you mention this, because I've been visiting the parks since '79 - and I've actually been surprised how "dead" it is in summer. But I was surprised at the "crowds" in September. But I really think the numbers are just more evenly spread.

 

[mom2rtk]

It's funny you mention this, because I've been visiting the parks since '79 - and I've actually been surprised how "dead" it is in summer. But I was surprised at the "crowds" in September. But I really think the numbers are just more evenly spread.

I believe as prices rise, guests are going where the discounts are.

 

[Lewisc]

Ok...

The parks are nowhere near "crowded to capacity"
In the past...there were dead months on the schedule...now there really aren't any... those ghost town days in December, January and may are now approaching "average" crowds.

A different way of looking at it....Capacity can be measured two ways. How many people can physically fit in the park is the most common way. An alternate definition is how many people can a park accommodate giving each guest an opportunity to experience the park.

Disney can "shrink" the parks capacity. Not enough guests are booking Fantasmic dinner package or using a FP for Fantasmic. Only schedule one performance. Blame the guests for not planning better. Many popular attractions have two or more loading areas. Not enough FP reservations Disney cans save on staffing by only running on track at Space Mountain. Under the present system a guest can walk over to TSM shortly before park closing. The guest might have to wait an hour past posted park closing but the guest will be able to enjoy the attraction. Under the new system Disney will be able to save a few dollars in CM salaries by all but eliminating having to run the attraction past park closing.

Not good for guests who like to walk on attractions during slow months. Not good for guests who don't want to over plan.

I see very little benefit to the guests.

 

[faneuil]

I believe as prices rise, guests are going where the discounts are.

Very good point.
the rise in home schooling, additional school breaks, etc have changed ppl's vacationing too. Then the South American economy being so strong as well.

I remember as a kid, you would never get permission to be out of school for a vacation. That's changed too.

Very few ppl I work with take a summer vacation. It's fall and spring now - when, like you said, the discounts are bigger.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

It's funny you mention this, because I've been visiting the parks since '79 - and I've actually been surprised how "dead" it is in summer. But I was surprised at the "crowds" in September. But I really think the numbers are just more evenly spread.

Exactly what I was talking about... Which means more of a "crowd redistribution" and no net growth... Just moving the pieces around the board and a population increase kinda effect at low percentage per year.

That also means there is nowhere near a "crowd" issue. So when people say "they HAVE to do something about these crowds!!!!"

No...they really don't.

I waited for pirates for 2 hours and 15 once in June of 1992.

It was 93 degrees and the ride was 17 years old then...so you do the math

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I remember as a kid, you would never get permission to be out of school for a vacation. That's changed too.
.

The world is different now...and not necessarily for the better.

My sons teacher was writing down the "vacation schedule" for the class on back to school night.

And we do it too...

In 13 years of school - guess how many days I missed for family/private vacations?
And it wasnt THAT long ago.

 

[faneuil]

I waited for pirates for 2 hours and 15 once in June of 1992.

It was 93 degrees and the ride was 17 years old then...so you do the math

And we did it with smiles on our faces and Mickey ice cream bars in our hands. Long lines never ruined any of my trips of WDW.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

And we did it with smiles on our faces and Mickey ice cream bars in our hands. Long lines never ruined any of my trips of WDW.

EXACTLY...I don't remember hearing anyone complain about the crowds that week...and all three parks were packed. The had huge snake queues out front of MGM just to get people in the gate.

But they also had splash mountain testing...tower of terror under early construction, and a massive amount of construction going on at what would become the animal kingdom area...

So maybe it is all relative, huh?

 

[clsteve]

A different way of looking at it....Capacity can be measured two ways. How many people can physically fit in the park is the most common way. An alternate definition is how many people can a park accommodate giving each guest an opportunity to experience the park.

Disney can "shrink" the parks capacity. Not enough guests are booking Fantasmic dinner package or using a FP for Fantasmic. Only schedule one performance. Blame the guests for not planning better. Many popular attractions have two or more loading areas. Not enough FP reservations Disney cans save on staffing by only running on track at Space Mountain. Under the present system a guest can walk over to TSM shortly before park closing. The guest might have to wait an hour past posted park closing but the guest will be able to enjoy the attraction. Under the new system Disney will be able to save a few dollars in CM salaries by all but eliminating having to run the attraction past park closing.

Not good for guests who like to walk on attractions during slow months. Not good for guests who don't want to over plan.

I see very little benefit to the guests.

Spot on.

Just to facilitate the crowd level discussion - a link to Park attendance figures for Disney 1991-2013:

http://www.scottware.com.au/theme/feature/atend_disparks.htm

I can't vouch for total correctness, though the couple of years I checked seemed to on with other sources....

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Spot on.

Just to facilitate the crowd level discussion - a link to Park attendance figures for Disney 1991-2013:

http://www.scottware.com.au/theme/feature/atend_disparks.htm

I can't vouch for total correctness, though the couple of years I checked seemed to on with other sources....

Thank you, thank you...

That chart is a great resource...

It tells you two things off the bat:
1. The Japanese economy collapsed with the tech bubble crash (it was slight more than that...but I'm simplifying)
2. wdw attendance has basically been flat for its entire history. showing little significant gain.

That stinks...as the only way they got an add on so far is by opening entirely new parks...
And you can see the across the board dip for the other three parks concurrently when DAK opened.

It's also ironic... That the one "significant" growth period was 94-97... The height of the "Disney decade" that had large scale construction underway across property...notably hotels and early DVC.

So perhaps the "significant" investment that CMB has done in the parks just isn't coming off that way?
Just a theory.

 

[skier_pete]

Spot on.

Just to facilitate the crowd level discussion - a link to Park attendance figures for Disney 1991-2013:

http://www.scottware.com.au/theme/feature/atend_disparks.htm

I can't vouch for total correctness, though the couple of years I checked seemed to on with other sources....

So, that's interesting:

Overall individual park attendance growth 2004-2013 (I picked a 10-year window, since by 2004 DAK was well established. If I'd gone one year earlier it would've been even bigger as there was a real surge from 2003 to 2006.)

MK - 23 % growth
Epcot - 19 % growth
DHS - 27 % growth
DAK - 40 % growth

Overall - 24 % growth

Looking at the numbers - the biggest surges in growth were 2003-2006 and then 2011-2013. From 2005-2011 levels were very flat. This tells me one of two things:
(1) The economy was good during these periods
(2) These also coincide with periods of time where new attractions were opening up.

It also tells me that Disney does not appear to be really hurting for attendance, as many on this board would like us to believe. Perhaps a 2.4 % average growth per year is not as much as Disney would like, but I think when you think of the numbers, its definitely an example that WDW is in no way "hurting" for attendance.

 

[clsteve]

Thank you, thank you...

That chart is a great resource...

It tells you two things off the bat:
1. The Japanese economy collapsed with the tech bubble crash (it was slight more than that...but I'm simplifying)
2. wdw attendance has basically been flat for its entire history. showing little significant gain.

That stinks...as the only way they got an add on so far is by opening entirely new parks...
And you can see the across the board dip for the other three parks concurrently when DAK opened.

It's also ironic... That the one "significant" growth period was 94-97... The height of the "Disney decade" that had large scale construction underway across property...notably hotels and early DVC.

So perhaps the "significant" investment that CMB has done in the parks just isn't coming off that way?
Just a theory.

One other interesting thing that's very valid and interesting to put some thought to. Look how locals supported DL through the recession periods. Completely flattened out the curve compared to other Parks.

Who needs those AP'ers anyway......

 

[lockedoutlogic]

So, that's interesting:

Overall individual park attendance growth 2004-2013 (I picked a 10-year window, since by 2004 DAK was well established. If I'd gone one year earlier it would've been even bigger as there was a real surge from 2003 to 2006.)

MK - 23 % growth
Epcot - 19 % growth
DHS - 27 % growth
DAK - 40 % growth

Overall - 24 % growth

Looking at the numbers - the biggest surges in growth were 2003-2006 and then 2011-2013. From 2005-2011 levels were very flat. This tells me one of two things:
(1) The economy was good during these periods
(2) These also coincide with periods of time where new attractions were opening up.

It also tells me that Disney does not appear to be really hurting for attendance, as many on this board would like us to believe. Perhaps a 2.4 % average growth per year is not as much as Disney would like, but I think when you think of the numbers, its definitely an example that WDW is in no way "hurting" for attendance.

I guess it's a matter of perspective...

The growth you're referring IS animal kingdom. You see the park cannibalization manifested from 98-2000.

So factor in the "park hopper" phenomenon...which I still have yet to see anything that would indicate if those are counted, double counted, etc...and it looks like just normal "inflation"...not gains.

It's the "length of stay" number that drove the 90's and Disney was - rightly - obsessed with internally.
That hit the Wall with DAK. Which is what we were told internally in the 2000ish period.

Very interesting to look at indeed though.
But not "magical" enough for most people's tastes around here...I would presume.

 

[rteetz]

So, that's interesting: Overall individual park attendance growth 2004-2013 (I picked a 10-year window, since by 2004 DAK was well established. If I'd gone one year earlier it would've been even bigger as there was a real surge from 2003 to 2006.) MK - 23 % growth Epcot - 19 % growth DHS - 27 % growth DAK - 40 % growth Overall - 24 % growth Looking at the numbers - the biggest surges in growth were 2003-2006 and then 2011-2013. From 2005-2011 levels were very flat. This tells me one of two things: (1) The economy was good during these periods (2) These also coincide with periods of time where new attractions were opening up. It also tells me that Disney does not appear to be really hurting for attendance, as many on this board would like us to believe. Perhaps a 2.4 % average growth per year is not as much as Disney would like, but I think when you think of the numbers, its definitely an example that WDW is in no way "hurting" for attendance.

Disney has never been hurting for attendance. I think people look at it more as DHS and AK are way under where Epcot and MK are so they need help.

Another thing to add is there was a CEO switch in 2005 and thats when we see a decrease in the amount of attractions built.

between 2003-06
Everest opened at AK
Bibbidi Bobbidi Boutique
Soarin' at Epcot
LMA at DHS
Saratoga Springs
Reflections of China Epcot
Mission: Space Epcot
Philarmagic MK
The Seas with Nemo and Friends Epcot
Turtle Talk with Crush Epcot
Stitch's Great Escape MK
Finding Nemo the Musical AK
Disney's Pop Century Resort

Between 2011-13
Dumbo added capacity
Enchanted Tales with Belle
Be our Guest
Under the Sea
Barnstormer
Disney Springs Announcement and construction
Art of Animation
the non MK parks didnt see a whole lot during this period

 

[faneuil]

One other interesting thing that's very valid and interesting to put some thought to. Look how locals supported DL through the recession periods. Completely flattened out the curve compared to other Parks.

Who needs those AP'ers anyway......

One of my neighbors and I were talking about DL local support v. WDW local support.

One of the challenges WDW faces is seasonal residents. The people next door to me still "technically" live in Boston. He's retired, but she's still working, so they're in MA more than they're in Florida. They don't see AP's for any of the theme parks in Orlando as a good deal, since they're not here enough. (to them anyway)

When the recession hit, many snowbirds faced tough decisions on their second homes in Florida.

The Anaheim area, of course, has a lot less seasonal residents, so I think that helps their AP numbers a bit.

Certainly, there's a lot more to it than that. But it's a factor. I find $430 for a yearly AP a steal of a deal. But if I lived anywhere in Florida that required me to stay over night, I'm not so sure.

Still, even Orlandoians are an interesting bunch. There's people that downright loathe the theme park areas - even though without them, Orlando wouldn't be the city it is.

Many locals have expressed that they feel "unwanted" at WDW. I feel the exact opposite. I'm vocal about being a local. It's gotten me a few little perks along the way, and certainly some very good conversations with CMs and managers.

As far as crowds, while numbers are going up, it's also about distribution. What used to be a big pat of butter in the middle of the toast, is now a more evenly distributed layer of cream cheese over the whole piece.