News Round Up

[lockedoutlogic]

French Labor Laws and the union structure are killers. They don't have the ability (like TWDC) to do wholesale conversions of full time positions to part time or even make seasonal headcount adjustments.

Making daily headcount adjustments based on guest traffic, weather, etc. are impossible

Every single little thing has to be negotiated.

In a past life, we pulled out of France and moved everything to the UK and Spain based almost solely on those issues....

I usually agree with you 100% of the time...
But a pet peeve is "blame labor"

Labor has to be protected because the world has decided that they are a disposable commodity and takes a crap on it. Guess what "great nation" is at the head of that column?

There's a reason why every semi credibly economist has identified wealth disparity a huge, potentially catastrophic problem - because the world would function better on any scale if the majority of its inhabitants were not desperately without money/potential. It's a mob scenario on a planetary scale....and I might remind we are a " very well armed" planet.

French law obviously would not be "Disney friendly"...but I know that and I'm not french nor a labor expert.
You mean to tell me that frank wells couldn't figure that out? That somehow the "swamp model" wouldn't take hold?

Or perhaps...the swamp Model was way better for he workers in the late 80's when euro was being negotiated. In fact...it was. Maybe somewhere the standards fell below the bar that would ever fly in the Marne?

They need to price adjust and make their stand there...those hotel rooms are redonkulously priced.
Flood the place with Brits (yeah, Scotland), Deutcsh, and La Francais.

That should be the hill they'll die on. Get butts in the seats and stop griping about how they can't make everyone part time.

 

[clsteve]

I usually agree with you 100% of the time...
But a pet peeve is "blame labor"

Labor has to be protected because the world has decided that they are a disposable commodity and takes a crap on it. Guess what "great nation" is at the head of that column?

There's a reason why every semi credibly economist has identified wealth disparity a huge, potentially catastrophic problem - because the world would function better on any scale if the majority of its inhabitants were not desperately without money/potential. It's a mob scenario on a planetary scale....and I might remind we are a " very well armed" planet.

French law obviously would not be "Disney friendly"...but I know that and I'm not french nor a labor expert.
You mean to tell me that frank wells couldn't figure that out? That somehow the "swamp model" wouldn't take hold?

Or perhaps...the swamp Model was way better for he workers in the late 80's when euro was being negotiated. In fact...it was. Maybe somewhere the standards fell below the bar that would ever fly in the Marne?

They need to price adjust and make their stand there...those hotel rooms are redonkulously priced.
Flood the place with Brits (yeah, Scotland), Deutcsh, and La Francais.

That should be the hill they'll die on. Get butts in the seats and stop griping about how they can't make everyone part time.

I think the issue is more that the model they're used to - the US model - doesn't work there.

They're used to headcount being more of a variable cost. Variable equaling profit.

They believed that DLP would be so popular, they downplayed the issue and uniqueness of the labor footprint.

Yeah, who would've thunk that Europeans (especially the French), have a completely different view of leisure time than Americans.

"They all get 8 weeks vacation! Of course they'll come and keep coming...!"

And that's the thing about the French labor market - your projections need to be incredibly conservative, because once you're locked in, you're locked in.

That's all long term financial projections

It's why almost every consulting arrangement is fixed cost over there, while fixed cost is very rare over here.....

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I think the issue is more that the model they're used to - the US model - doesn't work there.

They're used to headcount being more of a variable cost. Variable equaling profit.

They believed that DLP would be so popular, they downplayed the issue and uniqueness of the labor footprint.

Yeah, who would've thunk that Europeans (especially the French), have a completely different view of leisure time than Americans.

"They all get 8 weeks vacation! Of course they'll come and keep coming...!"

And that's the thing about the French labor market - your projections need to be incredibly conservative, because once you're locked in, you're locked in.

That's all long term financial projections

It's why almost every consulting arrangement is fixed cost over there, while fixed cost is very rare over here.....

Exactly...Disney suits took their dumb pills.

But Eisner just HAD to have it...and it HAD to be in France...

When almost any analyst - probably including their own (buzz price types) - thought Spain or Italy would be the way to go.

Heck if you put it in Italy and threw up DVC - the place would be filled with people from New York and New Jersey...

(Ok... Couldn't resist)

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Walt Disney Co. Backs $1.25 Billion Lifeline for Euro Disney

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/10/06/walt-disney-co-backs-1-25-billion-lifeline-for-euro-disney/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-walt-disney-company-statement-on-recapitalization-plan-for-euro-disney-2014-10-06

Nobody's gonna notice this...

But does anyone want to double back and talk about MGM, now?

Or how about CMB's contract extension?

Hmmmmm...

 

[rteetz]

Maelstrom closed last night signs are gone or covered up and the waterfall is turned off.

 

[rteetz]

Nobody's gonna notice this... But does anyone want to double back and talk about MGM, now? Or how about CMB's contract extension? Hmmmmm...

My local news picked this up I'm kind of surprised by that.

 

[clsteve]

Nobody's gonna notice this...

But does anyone want to double back and talk about MGM, now?

Or how about CMB's contract extension?

Hmmmmm...

My local news picked this up I'm kind of surprised by that.

The upcoming EOY analyst calls and the Annual Report are going to be the most interesting in years - at least from a Parks perspective.

NextGen spend and profitability measured against their high per guest spend projections, occ rate, this cash injection for DLP, where Avatar and SW are, what's up with DHS.....

All of these are things that the analysts are going to want specifics on.

And all things Disney set themselves up for - last year esp. with their own NextGen spend and cost projections.

I'm not saying any of these are going to be bad, just that they're going to have to have real numbers this time...

 

[lockedoutlogic]

The upcoming EOY analyst calls and the Annual Report are going to be the most interesting in years - at least from a Parks perspective.

NextGen spend and profitability measured against their high per guest spend projections, occ rate, this cash injection for DLP, where Avatar and SW are, what's up with DHS.....

All of these are things that the analysts are going to want specifics on.

And all things Disney set themselves up for - last year esp. with their own NextGen spend and cost projections.

I'm not saying any of these are going to be bad, just that they're going to have to have real numbers this time...

I'm fascinated as well...

But I was just accused of being riff raff that ruins the magic on another thread...
So I'm gonna go lay in a corner in fetal position and suck my thumb now

And I think the "next gen" spending at wdw is going to be exactly at the growth rate that has been trending up since 2011-2012 during recovery...and is unaffected by next gen itself.

But they'll spin like a top on it...as their books are probably certified by the independent accounting firm of Faux, Smoak, Mirror, and Mirage

 

[rteetz]

New test for TSMM FP+ only no standby or DAS allowed

http://wdwnt.com/blog/2014/10/breaking-guests-can-only-ride-toy-story-mania-via-fastpass-this-week/

 

[ChipnDale79]

New test for TSMM FP+ only no standby or DAS allowed

http://wdwnt.com/blog/2014/10/breaking-guests-can-only-ride-toy-story-mania-via-fastpass-this-week/

Who expects long lines at Guest Relations for this one? I do.

Imagine not being made aware of this in advance in order to plan accordingly, get there, and then be told you can't wait in standby.

 

[Figmentforever24]

Its quite amazing how much money Disney is about to spend on the theme parks in the next few years. Especially the red headed step child Disneyland Paris. Make no mistake Disneyland Paris is a great resort but lets be honest when we say that 1.2 billion is only going to do so much for that resort. Clean ups and refurbs are only the beginning for that resort and then we have the issue of new rides which aren't cheap and the good ones will take a huge chunk of that change. Hollywood Studios is still on the list for some money and now a very good insider (Sorry LockedOutLogic I couldn't resist) also known as Marni on the WDWMagic thread is saying that it is coming much sooner then we think and we are talking bigger then the DCA overhaul...of course put along that Shanghai Disneyland, Hong Kong Disneyland and then plans for the 60th in Anaheim and we have a bunch of money being put out. Going to be an interesting financial report come November.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Who expects long lines at Guest Relations for this one? I do.

Imagine not being made aware of this in advance in order to plan accordingly, get there, and then be told you can't wait in standby.

I'm not trying to be sarcastic...

By how do you justify selling $100 tickets and not allowing them to be used for access to certain rides...

Anybody got a reasonable idea? I got none.

"You should have booked a fabulous vacation at a wdw resort hotel and booked you rubber band 60 days in advance at 1 am"?

I'm struggling here...

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Its quite amazing how much money Disney is about to spend on the theme parks in the next few years. Especially the red headed step child Disneyland Paris. Make no mistake Disneyland Paris is a great resort but lets be honest when we say that 1.2 billion is only going to do so much for that resort. Clean ups and refurbs are only the beginning for that resort and then we have the issue of new rides which aren't cheap and the good ones will take a huge chunk of that change. Hollywood Studios is still on the list for some money and now a very good insider (Sorry LockedOutLogic I couldn't resist) also known as Marni on the WDWMagic thread is saying that it is coming much sooner then we think and we are talking bigger then the DCA overhaul...of course put along that Shanghai Disneyland, Hong Kong Disneyland and then plans for the 60th in Anaheim and we have a bunch of money being put out. Going to be an interesting financial report come November.

Marni is full of it.

But hey...I'll eat the crow if they want to serve it with a fine emulsion/ reduction sauce.

T.O.T.S.

But back to euro...
I found some interesting quotes in the writeups

"Euro Disney's last profitable year was 2008... Before the GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS hit"
Translation: idiots with bad mortgages (ie fools, speculators, scumbag realtors and bankers) have killed French Mickey. Thanks, Phil Graham.

"Eurodisney has a market value of about 124 million euros...and owes Disney 1.75 BILLION"
Translation: Oh, Boy...

"Disney owns 40% and could become SOLE owner, depending on if the other stockholders choose to participate in the restructuring"
Translation: DLP will shortly become a very heavily debt laden triplet with Disneyland and Walt Disney World. Think that will lead to new wdw investment?

Also... The shares dropped 16% after the announcement...so the French stock exchange doesn't seem to like it.

 

[TipsyTraveler]

Would Disney allow the Paris parks to go under? Would they ever reach a point where they say enough is enough with this money-pit and shut the doors? Or will they find a way to turn it around because either, A) there's still a lot of money making potential there, or B) their image is too important to them and, regardless of what percentage they own, it's still their name on the line? I tend to lean towards the latter, but not confidently enough to buy stock in it.

 

[Figmentforever24]

Marni is full of it.

But hey...I'll eat the crow if they want to serve it with a fine emulsion/ reduction sauce.

T.O.T.S.

But back to euro...
I found some interesting quotes in the writeups

"Euro Disney's last profitable year was 2008... Before the GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS hit"
Translation: idiots with bad mortgages (ie fools, speculators, scumbag realtors and bankers) have killed French Mickey. Thanks, Phil Graham.

"Eurodisney has a market value of about 124 million euros...and owes Disney 1.75 BILLION"
Translation: Oh, Boy...

"Disney owns 40% and could become SOLE owner, depending on if the other stockholders choose to participate in the restructuring"
Translation: DLP will shortly become a very heavily debt laden triplet with Disneyland and Walt Disney World. Think that will lead to new wdw investment?

Also... The shares dropped 16% after the announcement...so the French stock exchange doesn't seem to like it.

If a Disney park closes then it will be Disneyland Paris it really is to almost the point of no return if it hasn't gotten there already.

And Marni isn't full of it I promise you. That man hasn't been wrong yet so no reason to believe he will be now. He projected Avatarland, Rivers of Light, New Fantasyland, Dwarf Coaster, MyMagic, Disney Springs and more. So unless he fills like being dishonest then we have no reason to NOT believe him.

 

[disneyjunkie11]

I'm not trying to be sarcastic...

By how do you justify selling $100 tickets and not allowing them to be used for access to certain rides...

Anybody got a reasonable idea? I got none.

"You should have booked a fabulous vacation at a wdw resort hotel and booked you rubber band 60 days in advance at 1 am"?

I'm struggling here...

I said the same thing to my husband this morning. I don't get it!

 

[lockedoutlogic]

If a Disney park closes then it will be Disneyland Paris it really is to almost the point of no return if it hasn't gotten there already.

And Marni isn't full of it I promise you. That man hasn't been wrong yet so no reason to believe he will be now. He projected Avatarland, Rivers of Light, New Fantasyland, Dwarf Coaster, MyMagic, Disney Springs and more. So unless he fills like being dishonest then we have no reason to NOT believe him.

Marni apparently Marty sklar...

But unless it's Iger, his account lackey (Rasulo), or Iger's stocktrader/college roommate/golfing buddy...
They still have suspect credibility.

 

[clsteve]

But back to euro...
I found some interesting quotes in the writeups

"Euro Disney's last profitable year was 2008... Before the GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS hit"
Translation: idiots with bad mortgages (ie fools, speculators, scumbag realtors and bankers) have killed French Mickey. Thanks, Phil Graham.

"Eurodisney has a market value of about 124 million euros...and owes Disney 1.75 BILLION"
Translation: Oh, Boy...

"Disney owns 40% and could become SOLE owner, depending on if the other stockholders choose to participate in the restructuring"
Translation: DLP will shortly become a very heavily debt laden triplet with Disneyland and Walt Disney World. Think that will lead to new wdw investment?

Also... The shares dropped 16% after the announcement...so the French stock exchange doesn't seem to like it.

Throw van Rompuy, Barroso, and especially Oli Rehn in with the honorable Graham. With a special shoutout to Ms. Merkel, of course

They created the euro mess that gave every euro country German lending rates even if they had nothing to back it up.

And most importantly --- they're still kicking unemployment (especially for the young), and the over-inflated euro (think deutchmark) proverbial can right down the road.

For Disney, it's hitting their target Euro customer (young, with kids) right in the shorts - or nicely tailored wool blend slacks - maybe dark designer jeans, I should say

It's a real issue to go along with the flawed economic and cost model they built it on

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Would Disney allow the Paris parks to go under? Would they ever reach a point where they say enough is enough with this money-pit and shut the doors? Or will they find a way to turn it around because either, A) there's still a lot of money making potential there, or B) their image is too important to them and, regardless of what percentage they own, it's still their name on the line? I tend to lean towards the latter, but not confidently enough to buy stock in it.

Disney has dominated the amusement park and amusement resort offshoot business since they've started.

Disneyland, wdw, and Tokyo have represented ridiculous juggernaut enterprises where the streets have been lined with gold...

To throw in the towel on euro...however, would represent a short and longterm
PR failure that I don't think they would risk for a second... Even if euro becomes a Disney puppet state.

I think (ironically due to proximity) it's there Waterloo. And they have to hold out until Blucher arrives (this is the best pun/irony string ever).

I just don't know how they can ever convince anyone of the hundreds of government agencies and private corporations to go along with their demands on a new development or expansion with a failed/closed complex.

The comment would be "oh yeah? Remember what happened at..."
They can't have that...as all Disney parks have been built with TONS of free government and private giveaway money.

Like for instance: wdw, euro, Hong Kong, and shanghai.

 

[rteetz]

Who expects long lines at Guest Relations for this one? I do. Imagine not being made aware of this in advance in order to plan accordingly, get there, and then be told you can't wait in standby.

apparently this will open up the window for a lot more FPs for this attraction but I agree