NEW VGF Building

[BWV Dreamin]

Finally, reasonable conversation..... I couldn't believe reading ppl thinking Disney is going to offer The Grand for $201 pp.....

I’ve also said this all along. Why not continue to offer points at $255/pt? Because they will raise the ppp with VGF2.

 

[KTownRaider]

May 2021 direct sales at the Riviera were weak, a decline of 31% over the previous month, selling only 61,000 points for May. Value shoppers seem to be struggling with the Riviera's $201pp price (even with incentives).

I saw the sales report on another site, and was surprised to see that decline in Riviera direct sales from April to May (88,714 to 61,371)- especially with the pandemic/consumer confidence improving, economy theoretically heating up and people flush with stimulus money. Based on it's current average monthly sales rate (79K pts), it'll sell out around Christmas of 2027. Not doubt the pace will improve, but I'm not sure it will to DVC's satisfaction.

Given the anemic pace, I'm starting to think VGF may be priced significantly higher (>$40) than Riviera- in part to help drive RIV sales traffic. Just putting VGF back into the DVC marketing/sales push will drum up additional DVC interest given it's established reputation (deserved or not) and clientele who will be initially interested in sticking their flag on the MK monorail loop- perhaps not even thinking about the Epcot/HS area (or aware of RIV itself). Then, when the inevitable VGF2 $40-46K sticker shock hits, the guide can quickly pivot to another lux, high end option that is ~$10-16k less (on 150pts) before incentives and has 6 additional years on the contract. By comparison, Rivera will look like an incredible value- a steal. Any perceived concerns regarding resale restrictions, inflated point chart (which btw looks great next to VGF's), or occasional skyliner breakdowns will evaporate.

No one here knows where VGF2's pricing will land, but it's fun to speculate and hear everyone's opinion and thoughtful logic behind it...

 

[sethschroeder]

pandemic/consumer confidence improving, economy theoretically heating up and people flush with stimulus money

May has only outsold April in 2018 and 2012 over the past decade and its not like there was much change between April and May which would have it increase.

As far as economy I think there are thoughts about inflation risks and DVC buyers are likely split between getting some or no stimulus checks. So not sure if it helps or not or possibly just helps resale more especially with all the price increases.

 

[Nabas]

May has only outsold April in 2018 and 2012 over the past decade and its not like there was much change between April and May which would have it increase.

As far as economy I think there are thoughts about inflation risks and DVC buyers are likely split between getting some or no stimulus checks. So not sure if it helps or not or possibly just helps resale more especially with all the price increases.

I agree, May's direct sales normally are less than April's sales.

These are not normal times.

Since WDW reopened, we've had onsite stays in July, September, November, December, January, March, and May. Disney keeps increasing theme park capacity. This May was the most crowded WDW has been since WDW reopened last July. We go to WDW every May. This year's May crowds almost felt like a "normal" year.

May direct sales should have set a post-COVID record.

Meanwhile, DVC resales are red hot.

There's something else that drove down direct sales in May.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I

May direct sales should have set a post-COVID record.

There's something else that drove down direct sales in May.

There is. The restrictions on Riviera. This speaks volumes.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Finally, reasonable conversation..... I couldn't believe reading ppl thinking Disney is going to offer The Grand for $201 pp.....

I originally thought that VGF would be priced high, but after reading a bunch of very informed posts by folks who know more than I, I think I was wrong.
Though incentives might vary, DVC ppp for new resorts is historically always the same, as I learned right here on these boards. Riviera and Aulani are going for the same ppp right now. Disney is not going to open VGF sales with a 50% price hike over existing prices, especially considering it’s not brand new, but a quickly remodeled hotel building. I love VGF, but even I would just buy Riviera instead.

Second, the current $255 ppp is currently for a sold out resort designed to discourage sales. This will no longer be the case when VGF2 opens. No one will buy it, especially value oriented studio buyers, if it’s not similarly priced to what they’re currently selling. I would bet everything will go up to about $225, but incentives will substantially reduce the VGF2 price.
So, personally, I would wait and buy direct instead of paying, in this wild market, even more for resale. Granted, you’d have to be patient, but in the long I’d rather wait than see direct pricing for unrestricted points actually cheaper than what I paid for resale.

There’s a great pricing thread with even more analysis on these boards you might want to check out.

 

[davidl81]

Finally, reasonable conversation..... I couldn't believe reading ppl thinking Disney is going to offer The Grand for $201 pp.....

Why not? They offered GFV1 at the same price as BLT was going for when it first went on sale. Historically DVC always starts off a new resort sale at the same price as what it is currently selling with the variation being incentives. It’s most probable that VGF2 goes on sale for what RIV is selling for at the time of opening, unless DVC does something drastic they really haven’t done before.

 

[sethschroeder]

we've had onsite stays in July, September, November, December, January, March, and May

Except you missed a very important month in April. From the end of March through April there was basically no park availability. So yes May is busier than your other trips but right at the end of March and then for sure in April there was a very quick ramp up.

Even things like the pools for resorts were more crowded and more often a waitlist or whatever it was.

Meanwhile, DVC resales are red hot.

There's something else that drove down direct sales in May.

Is it red hot or is volume of contracts down compared to end of last year? I don't follow it closely enough but I know there has been discussion on it.

Additionally May still saw higher sales numbers than March with April being a peak just like normal.

Finally you saw a price increase on Riviera occur on April 8th (right after Easter) with the ending of the limited time additional incentives that started back in January.

 

[sethschroeder]

Why not? They offered GFV1 at the same price as BLT was going for when it first went on sale.

Except RIV won't even be $201 by the time VGF goes on sale likely.

 

[Nabas]

There is. The restrictions on Riviera. This speaks volumes.

It's an interesting idea but I'm not sure how much the effect the Riviera's restrictions are having on direct sales.

Many DVC direct buyers are at the parks when they make their decisions. It's a bit of an impulse purchase. I'm not sure how many have researched resale restrictions or even know there's such a thing as resale before their purchase. (It's a completely different mentality than resale buyers.)

What these direct buyers do see is the resort and the price.

Disney is pushing the Skyliner to be just as good as the Monorail. But is it? After all, most thing of Walt Disney World as "The Magic Kingdom" with a bunch of other stuff. No matter how you slice it, a Skyliner to Epcot and DHS is not as good as a Monorail to MK and Epcot.

Let's consider price. I assume Disney is still pushing the 160-point contract. With the current $5pp discount at that level, this works out to:

$196pp X 160 + 700 closing + $900 MF (for May) = $32,960

It wasn't that long ago than a DVC purchase was less than the price of a car.

Now it's more than the price of many cars.

I just think some DVC buyers are hesitating at the Riviera's prices.

 

[Sandisw]

That said, telling you the price would be $300 is certainly a good tactic to get your mind off waiting for VGF and more focused an the cheaper prices of what they're selling now, Riviera and Aulani.

Too funny because I just chatted with them at RIviera and he said his guess was that both the new ones at VGF will be competitive with RIV.

So honestly they are are guessing!!

 

[RoseGold]

I’m still confused at these comments expecting the flagship to sell at RIV pricing. Both BLT and Poly are now in the 180s resale. Their direct prices should be increasing too, far above RIV.

There’s no way VGF is going to be priced cheaper than BLT or Poly. I still say 275. Don’t believe me? Go check out Boo Bash pricing.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Interesting fact…..when I met with a guide at Riviera to make my purchase, never in the discussion were resale restrictions mentioned. Never throughout the hour presentation. I brought it up, oh then the restrictions were BRIEFLY mentioned. I declined, purchased more VGF points. My guide did ask what swayed us towards VGF. I made it very clear “ the restrictions on Riviera “.

 

[FinallyFL]

There’s no way VGF is going to be priced cheaper than BLT or Poly. I still say 275.

At least at that price I wouldn't have to worry about being tempted to buy more points.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

At least at that price I wouldn't have to worry about being tempted to buy more points.

No but you might start entertaining Riviera…..

 

[davidl81]

Except RIV won't even be $201 by the time VGF goes on sale likely.

Right, but it won’t be $250 either. Let’s say VGF2 goes on sale in Dec (6 months from now), how much would you expect RIV to increase in 6 months? Best guess $215ish

 

[Nabas]

I’m still confused at these comments expecting the flagship to sell at RIV pricing. Both BLT and Poly are now in the 180s resale. Their direct prices should be increasing too, far above RIV.

Pricing is also about volume.

Let's look at direct sales in the 12 months prior to COVID:

BLT: 3000 points per month (direct price $245pp)
POLY: 2200 points per month (direct price $250pp)
VGF: 2200 points per month (direct price $255pp)

VGF2 is going have to sell somewhere around 100,000 points per month.

Pricing is about price point. I get 10 buyers at $100 but 50 buyers at $75.

Disney has to find that sweet spot. Something that maximizes price per point while also maximizing points sold. The more quickly they sell RIV and VGF2, the quicker they can sell something else.

No one knows what the sweet spot is, which is why we are having so much fun speculating!

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I am not sure they really want to sell “fast”. I know they need cash. But with no other new DVC to sell in the near future, they are going to want to have something besides Aulani to sell in the next 3-5 years.

 

[Nabas]

I am not sure they really want to sell “fast”. I know they need cash. But with no other new DVC to sell in the near future, they are going to want to have something besides Aulani to sell in the next 3-5 years.

If they are not selling, then they are sitting on inventory.

In modern business, inventory is viewed as wasteful.

You want a constant quick turnover of inventory.

Do you think Disney is happy to be sitting on all that Aulani inventory?

 

[RoseGold]

If they are not selling, then they are sitting on inventory.

In modern business, inventory is viewed as wasteful.

They closed the permits for Reflections. They've got nothing even planned for new construction. VGF is it for years, and it's only maybe 2M points. If they sell out, they're back at RIV/Aulani.

Sure, maybe they can kick the can down the road and flip some Jambo, but they're in no rush to sell through VGF.