NEW VGF Building

[BWV Dreamin]

Not to mention by pricing VGF significantly higher than RIV and then trying to sell RIV as the “value” resort sets the precedent that there are tiers to DVC resorts. And RIV would be a lower tier resort than VGF. To me this is something that DVC has actively tried to avoid. All of their resorts are sold as “deluxe” resorts, wether they are or not is a different story. But actively selling one resort significantly higher than another when both are active would be a clear implication of DVC tiers, and I do not see that happening.

Disney calls The Grand Floridian their “ flagship” resort. I think that statement right there creates a “ tier”.

 

[KTownRaider]

Not to mention by pricing VGF significantly higher than RIV and then trying to sell RIV as the “value” resort sets the precedent that there are tiers to DVC resorts.

There are no 'value' or even 'moderate' resorts in DVC, but I don't quite track with the statement that there aren't tiers within DVC. I don't think you're suggesting that OKW and RIV are on par with each other? Or maybe you are? Genuinely curious...

 

[sethschroeder]

I think what RIV is showing is there is a point where high $per point combined with high point requirements are starting to make the monthly payments too high for a family that wants a week in a studio once a year.

I mean prior to COVID19 shutdown it was running at a fairly substantial clip.

By comparison, in May 2021 Riviera accounted for only 45% of all direct sales

Context is important:
You saw 58% in April, 59% in March, 60% in February, 58% in January.

You have more people buying remotely still right now and if you can't see the shiny new resort you won't be convinced to buy at the shiny new resort. Then add in some of the questions regarding restrictions and you lose the extra 10% that normally would get you to that 70% number.

SSR however was 7-12% of total sales January to April then in May made up 20% of all sales. That's where much of the roughly 13%-15% was lost in the percentage breakdown.

I would expect a correction in June possible where Riviera increases back towards the 60% of direct points. We will see though.

 

[sethschroeder]

I'm actually wondering if Poly 2.0 will happen now????? Seems like Disney doesn't mind their Hotels being converted to DVC resorts. Maybe this time they will do it right and add 1 & 2 bedroom villas.

I think we would point towards AKV as the next flip partly because of time left on contract, then based on inability to fill the resort, and finally because they can make it "cheaper" while not impacting other pricing.

POLY just had all its rooms updated on the cash side so it would be strange to redo the rooms yet again to sell them via DVC. Same with WL which was another one I had thought they might look to flip.

 

[sethschroeder]

Disney underestimated how many would take a pass on RIV to go with points on the O14 resorts.

I mean RIV was selling really well before shutdown. Then has been selling close to 60% of the direct points. So with that being said thats 10-15% range that you normally would see active resorts being sold at.

Just take a look at the number of combined points sold at the O14 resorts the last 3 month both direct and resale and compare the points sold at RIV.

I mean as I posted just up thread RIV has been hovering around 60% of points except last month when SSR took a big leap forward. With SSR's price increase we can expect that to drop down some and RIV to rebound closer to that 60% number again.

Also Disney really hasn't "sold out" CCV at this point yet either as its still running along at roughly 12% monthly since the start of the year. Its also the 3rd brand in the DVC marketing materials and site with RIV #1, AUL #2, CCV #3 across the site and such. This might have to do with DVC really looking to sell whatever vs the past where they sort of shut off older resorts from being sold.

 

[davidl81]

There are no 'value' or even 'moderate' resorts in DVC, but I don't quite track with the statement that there aren't tiers within DVC. I don't think you're suggesting that OKW and RIV are on par with each other? Or maybe you are? Genuinely curious...

No, I think there are clear tiers in the quality of DVC resorts. But DVC has been very careful over the years to always market the entire DVC system as equal quality resorts (hence all deluxe villas) that just happen to be in different locations with different benefits. So by having two fully active WDW resorts for sale at vastly different price points would be the first time that DVC admits that there are tiers to their system.

 

[Marionnette]

I'm actually wondering if Poly 2.0 will happen now????? Seems like Disney doesn't mind their Hotels being converted to DVC resorts. Maybe this time they will do it right and add 1 & 2 bedroom villas.

They just refurbished all of the Poly hotel rooms and the monorail station. Assuming that DVD has a long-range plan, I don't think Disney would have spent that money if they could have pawn more of those expenses off on DVC owners a couple of years from now.

 

[Nabas]

Purely from a numbers perspective, converting a floor at Jambo House makes the most sense.

Once VGF2 is converted, Animal Kingdom Lodge will have 300 more rooms than the second largest Deluxe Resort.

 

[The Jackal]

I'm actually wondering if Poly 2.0 will happen now????? Seems like Disney doesn't mind their Hotels being converted to DVC resorts. Maybe this time they will do it right and add 1 & 2 bedroom villas.

Most likely not going to happen soon. Disney is in the process of refurbishing all the cash rooms. Maybe in 5-7 years.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Most likely not going to happen soon. Disney is in the process of refurbishing all the cash rooms. Maybe in 5-7 years.

If I recall correctly that's what happened the last time. The cash rooms had just been refurbed and they announced PVB.

 

[Nabas]

Also I think people here don’t really realize how many of new direct buyers are buying and financing them through Disney. It’s a lot, and I think what RIV is showing is there is a point where high $per point combined with high point requirements are starting to make the monthly payments too high for a family that wants a week in a studio once a year. All of the savings make sense, but still DVC needs to be able to say something along the lines of we can get you into DVC for $300 a month with 10% down etc. VGF and RIV are right at 150 points for a week in a regular studio (yes that will vary by room type and time, but 150 is about the average). So 150 points at 300 a point will make people put $4500 down, plus closing, and a payment of something like $550 a month for 10 years. It just gets too rich for a lot of potential DVC buyers. Also remember that actual interest rates are down, but Disney is still charging the same rates they always have, and they make a huge amount of profit from those interest charges.

Your post got me thinking so I looked up what Disney was advertising on the Members' website. (See screen capture below.)

$531.93 per month (427.05 + 104.88) seems like an awful lot for a timeshare. That's just for the hotel. It doesn't include travel, tickets, or food.

$531.93 per month times 12 months is $6,383.16 per year. You'd think a family of 4 could get a pretty good vacation for $6,400 per year.

 

[Sandisw]

If VGF gets re-priced at $255 or higher it will be an excellent lesson in marketing. There will be nothing really new/special/different about VGF when it goes back on sale. It is still the same VGF that has been available at $255 all along - just with some extra studios. People are supposed to suddenly be lining up to get points for $255 or more pp????? If anything, I view it as less valuable because you will likely no longer need to own there to stay there. I guess I just don't get it.

I'm on the sidelines with the plan to possibly buy if the price is close to RIV, because I like direct / unrestricted points and it will be a "good deal". If not, it's more SSR for us and we will play the 7 month / stalking game to stay there sometimes.

I guess I don't really care either way. We are good on points for now.

I think this way too. IMO VGF is getting the prices it is because it is small. It stayed pretty constant in pricing until this year when it jumped out. It took a little rise when the walkway was announced but other than that hovered in the $150 to $160s.

I know because I watched closely the past few
when deciding if I should sell BWV for that..this was before I went and fell in love with RIV.

Now prices are going up but it’s not because all of a sudden it’s a different place. It’s the nature of it being small and less supply plus the new rooms.

I do not see a huge difference in pricing between RIV and VGF, especially now with the 150 minimum.

If anything, that minimum may have been increased so that they can lower the price into the $220s since new buyers need to buy more.

They could also lower price but raise the add on minimum amount to 75 for current owners.

There are a lot of ways. Studios are great but buyers who want 1 or 2 bedrooms will find more at RIV and I think more buyers buy for its use and not it’s resale potential.

 

[sethschroeder]

If VGF gets re-priced at $255 or higher it will be an excellent lesson in marketing.

I think this way too. IMO VGF is getting the prices it is because it is small. It stayed pretty constant in pricing until this year when it jumped out. It took a little rise when the walkway was announced but other than that hovered in the $150 to $160s.

Or it could just be another telling sign that inflation is hitting harder.

It seems if it has 4 walls its up in cost right now. Homes are up like 20% year over year at this point which would lead VGF from a resale price of $165 up to $198 predicted which we have witnessed some contracts going for.

Now this is a vacation hotel room, this is not a house, this is a luxury, and this has a ton of restrictions. I am just saying maybe there is partly another explanation.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Right now the Fed is not concerned about inflation. Disney is not going to leave money on the table. They don’t care about selling out fast. Be prepared for sticker shock……

 

[sethschroeder]

Right now the Fed is not concerned about inflation.

Well there are lots of issues in the US that the Feds and Fed are not concerned about. All I know is that housing is way up, gas is up, and food is up in our area.

It could be a short term increases though. I haven't saw this price on food items except when I lived in a different part of the US roughly 1000 miles away.

I also find it interesting that VGF pricing and home pricing are somewhat in line with each other.

Just pulled YoY increases Average Resale Price:

Resort	May '20 vs May '21	March '20 vs May '21
Animal Kingdom	30%​	20%​
Bay Lake Tower	26%​	27%
Beach Club	15%​	14%
Boardwalk	22%​	25%
Boulder Ridge	23%​	21%
Copper Creek	14%​	14%
Grand Floridian	16%​	13%
Old Key West	26%​	18%
Polynesian	25%​	29%
Saratoga Springs	30%​	22%

 

[Roughians_satchel]

Do you think building the walkway helped push the decision to convert more VGF rooms? Did the cost of building the walkway get absorbed into VGF association dues and hotel room prices? That would be incentive enough for them to expand the association pie for VGF.

I know in 2019 there were talks (from castmembers I spoke to on property) of expanding the Skyliner to AKL as well as Disney Springs, Coronado, and the water parks. Maybe they're thinking to tie a Skyliner expansion to expanding DVC at AKL.

DVC is their cash cow - maybe the future strategy is to expand it in places where DVC can help pay for improved transportation.

 

[sethschroeder]

Do you think building the walkway helped push the decision to convert more VGF rooms? Did the cost of building the walkway get absorbed into VGF association dues and hotel room prices? That would be incentive enough for them to expand the association pie for VGF.

I can't imagine that cost was very much though. Maybe someone has numbers on it.

I know in 2019 there were talks (from castmembers I spoke to on property) of expanding the Skyliner to AKL as well as Disney Springs, Coronado, and the water parks. Maybe they're thinking to tie a Skyliner expansion to expanding DVC at AKL.

Ya the "leaked" plan was to build an extension next to Disney Springs if I remember next and then start building longer down the road to connect to Coronado/AK. Let me see if I can find it.

I searched and couldn't find the source now. I remember though it was Disney Springs next and it was from a Doppelmayr employee working on the Skyliner itself which was the source of the story.

 

[Matty B13]

Most likely not going to happen soon. Disney is in the process of refurbishing all the cash rooms. Maybe in 5-7 years.

Yeah, it will probably depend on how DVC is selling and what occupancy rates are at the Poly. I think a lot of people were surprised that any of Poly was converted to DVC Villas, since it was one of their premium resorts and wouldn't want to lose that hotel income.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I think this way too. IMO VGF is getting the prices it is because it is small. It stayed pretty constant in pricing until this year when it jumped out. It took a little rise when the walkway was announced but other than that hovered in the $150 to $160s.

I know because I watched closely the past few
when deciding if I should sell BWV for that..this was before I went and fell in love with RIV.

Now prices are going up but it’s not because all of a sudden it’s a different place. It’s the nature of it being small and less supply plus the new rooms.

I do not see a huge difference in pricing between RIV and VGF, especially now with the 150 minimum.

If anything, that minimum may have been increased so that they can lower the price into the $220s since new buyers need to buy more.

They could also lower price but raise the add on minimum amount to 75 for current owners.

There are a lot of ways. Studios are great but buyers who want 1 or 2 bedrooms will find more at RIV and I think more buyers buy for its use and not it’s resale potential.

I think you’re right. Also, VGF2 will be a quickly converted hotel bldg. of an existing resort, without a whole lot of new bells and whistles. It doesn’t strike me as a candidate for a massive price increase.

 

[OKW Lover]

Ya the "leaked" plan was to build an extension next to Disney Springs if I remember next and then start building longer down the road to connect to Coronado/AK. Let me see if I can find it.

I searched and couldn't find the source now. I remember though it was Disney Springs next and it was from a Doppelmayr employee working on the Skyliner itself which was the source of the story.

I wonder how concerned they are that this might result in off-site people parking at DS and then taking the Skyliner to a resort near one of the parks.