NEW VGF Building

[sethschroeder]

Not sure about that. We stayed at RIV last Thanksgiving and had to wait forever in the morning to get to Epcot. It may have been the COVID restrictions, but it was taking forever as every car that arrived from CBR was already taken and they wouldn’t load more on. The line was crazy backed up and we waited almost 45 minutes before we could board.

That capacity restriction likely are gone come end of the year maybe sooner.

When you basically require 2x-3x number of vehicles its going to extend the wait. It's also super easy to prepare for and capacity that needs to use the Skyliner has not changed a ton since all the resoers are open.

Not even sure if they have the monorail from MK to Epcot running yet and park closing with Monorail has always had issues. Not sure why people think all of a sudden monorail never has waits but hopefully with walking trails it helps more. I don't even anyone trying to leave MK at closing after fireworks next year.

One negative to a DS Skyliner is that it will encourage offsite guests to park at DS for free and then take fast, convenient transportation to the theme parks. Disney is not going to leave money on the table. The DS merchants and restaurants would either have to pony up or else the parking garages will no longer remain free.

Except you can already do that with busses? Take bus from DS to BWV/BCV and then walk in. Take bus to any resort and then bus to park.

Skyliner would be connected through CBR or RIV and likely would be a 20-25 min just from that point so anyone trying to cut out costs for parking already can.

Plus they can have a tap system requiring one of the lines to be hotel reservation or restaurant reservation if it was that big of a problem. Doubt it really is once we get full capacity back on the Skyliner in the next year.

 

[sndral]

I wonder if there are still points available for purchase at VGF? I just purchased the end of April. Now I wonder if any further availability will be stock piled to sell when the new VGF2 opens for sale? Will all contracts moving forward after sales open be only VGF2 points? Or will they still release points for the current VGF?

Someone mentioned it’s grayed out on the website? I have not looked yet.

ETA. It is no longer there for me when I go to the add on tool. I have a feeling you can no longer add on.

For what it’s worth I used chat yesterday to ask to be notified when they opened VGF2 sales to members. Having always bought resale I had no idea who my guide might be. The sales guy I chatted w/ immediately told me they might have some VGF1 available now & asked what my use year was. I told him I was in no rush. He later emailed me generic DVC stuff. My take on it was there was no list to put me on & maybe no immediate points to offer me, otherwise I assume his follow up email would have offered VGF points?
Oops, just looked at the email - it’s not generic, it’s about VGF financing - I’d be paying cash, so not sure why he sent the financing stuff.

 

[sethschroeder]

Presumably, before the announcement, Disney was ROFR'ing based on demand. In April, Disney sold over 5000 points at VGF1. With VGF2 opening soon, I expect demand for VGF1 direct to plummet. (At this point, anyone who was planning to add points directly at VGF1 might as well wait for VGF2 to see what Disney offers.) Consequently, ROFR'ing at VGF1 should plummet.

Why would it plummet its the same resort? Only reasons to wait are

• You want a fixed week in a new room
• You want to see if Direct prices get a crazy discount so you can buy direct

 

[CastAStone]

For the sake of discussion, let's assume Disney spends an average of $20,000 per room getting Building 9 ready. With 200 rooms, that's $4 million in costs.

20K won’t even buy the bedroom furniture, let along build the kitchenette, redo the floor, or gut and redo the bathroom. Remember this is all industrial stuff built for durability against destructive children while still looking super-premium. Also Disney is terrible at controlling construction costs and everything always costs 2X what it should. $200K+ per room is probably more realistic.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

For the sake of discussion, let's assume Disney spends an average of $20,000 per room getting Building 9 ready. With 200 rooms, that's $4 million in costs.

Let's assume an average of 25 points per room. Times 200 rooms. Times 365 days per year. Times even the current RIV $201 per night. That's $366 million!

Even with DVC sales costs, wow, Disney is going pocket a nice stack of change!

One of the reasons Disney probably will stop ROFR'ing VGF is that the margin on these converted rooms is huge!

Presumably, before the announcement, Disney was ROFR'ing based on demand. In April, Disney sold over 5000 points at VGF1. With VGF2 opening soon, I expect demand for VGF1 direct to plummet. (At this point, anyone who was planning to add points directly at VGF1 might as well wait for VGF2 to see what Disney offers.) Consequently, ROFR'ing at VGF1 should plummet.

The margin is high on the DVC side but there is lost revenue on the hotel side that you are not factoring in. A conversion like this is a short term infusion of cash in exchange for lost revenue down the line.

$700/night x 200 rooms x 365 days=51.1 million per year. They wouldn't have 100% occupancy, but it's certainly a large sum they're losing from that.

 

[sethschroeder]

Last year there was a big to-do over a temporary change DVC made to its ROFR and estoppel letters, because it was counting AKV-Jambo and AKV-Kidani as two separate resorts. It was a mistake on their part, likely due to someone new, and added confusion, but the reason the mistake was made because they are two separate home resorts but are treated as one due to their condo association.

See I am still not sure Disney won't add language specific to the new part of VGF we will see.

Now that you brought that up though it makes me wonder if it was them getting ready for VGF and putting new programming in place?

We will find out in the next 6-9 months I guess.

 

[Nabas]

The margin is high on the DVC side but there is lost revenue on the hotel side that you are not factoring in. A conversion like this is a short term infusion of cash in exchange for lost revenue down the line.

$700/night x 200 rooms x 365 days=51.1 million per year. They wouldn't have 100% occupancy, but it's certainly a large sum they're losing from that.

The presumption is that GF bookings have been soft. I think they are getting hurt by the Four Seasons, which truly is a much better resort than GF.

People who really want deluxe are staying there. The Four Seasons is all the rage among my neighbors, while the GF is full of annoying tourists!

 

[RoseGold]

A conversion like this is a short term infusion of cash in exchange for lost revenue down the line.

Not if Disney’s plan for luxury isn’t VGF. Pre-covid, there was the Star Wars hotel and the VGC style Epcot hotel practically in the park. There’s the spot next door to VGF, the best on on MK, still left. I hope Star Wars knocks it out of the park so maybe they build another immersive hotel.

I love VGF and own at VGF, but Bob was right. When you’re over 1k/night, the Four Seasons is much nicer.

 

[DonMacGregor]

One negative to a DS Skyliner is that it will encourage offsite guests to park at DS for free and then take fast, convenient transportation to the theme parks. Disney is not going to leave money on the table. The DS merchants and restaurants would either have to pony up or else the parking garages will no longer remain free.

I would think they could make the parking prohibitively expensive for those not actually visiting DS, like they did out here at Downtown Disney. Currently, it's $10.00 for the first hour, and you can get an additional two hours extra if you get your ticket validated with a minimum $20 purchase at numerous stores and restaurants. Without that validation, anything over that first hour starts going through the roof (I think it might even be another $10 per HALF hour after that). You could keep it free at DS for the first hour say, then add several hours with validation, then start hammering the additional time.

This was done specifically to allow for parking close to DTD without having theme park guests Bogarting all the spaces. For those unaware, DL and DCA parking is at the Mickey & Friends and Pixar Pals parking structures. If you decide not to take the tram, you literally walk through Downtown Disney on your way to the Esplanade (the big plaza area between the two park entrances), so the lure of cheap parking, especially if you're just popping into watch fireworks or Fantasmic is really strong. Another downside to having like a million AP's all living within 100 miles of the parks.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

VGF = the only DVC where 1BR's book up before studios!

I'm very curious to see how that goes. VGF is the one DVC that I've booked studios more than larger accommodations although we've gotten 2BR's also. Other places we've booked 1BR's quite a bit but never at VGF.

 

[sndral]

VGF = the only DVC where 1BR's book up before studios!

I'm very curious to see how that goes. VGF is the one DVC that I've booked studios more than larger accommodations although we've gotten 2BR's also. Other places we've booked 1BR's quite a bit but never at VGF.

I hope not, I love those 1 br. standard views, they seem such a bargain pointwise compared to the lake views

 

[CastAStone]

VGF = the only DVC where 1BR's book up before studios!

I'm very curious to see how that goes. VGF is the one DVC that I've booked studios more than larger accommodations although we've gotten 2BR's also. Other places we've booked 1BR's quite a bit but never at VGF.

I imagine that will be true at the new Disneyland DVC too. They’re taking a big swing with it!

 

[tjkraz]

For the sake of discussion, let's assume Disney spends an average of $20,000 per room getting Building 9 ready. With 200 rooms, that's $4 million in costs.

As other posters have already detailed, Disney couldn't get a contractor to come to their door on a project like this for $4M. It will be many times that, especially in today's labor market. A 2022 opening for these new villas means they won't get a full refurbishment until 2036. They need more than a couple pull-down beds and a microwave.

Let's assume an average of 25 points per room. Times 200 rooms. Times 365 days per year. Times even the current RIV $201 per night. That's $366 million!

Even with DVC sales costs, wow, Disney is going pocket a nice stack of change!

At the expense of 200 hotel rooms they'll no longer be able to rent for $800-1000 per night, and adding thousands of cash guests to the DVC rolls. Don't get me wrong...DVC very much has a place in the fiscal landscape of WDW. That was especially true during the pandemic when DVC owners returned to the parks much faster than cash guests.

But this is still removing money-making hotel rooms from the inventory and moving guests from cash-paying to points-staying.

Internally there are bookkeeping entries made for the transfer of property. Grand Floridian is losing a very valuable asset. The cash outlay will be less than something like building Reflections from scratch. But DVC will be charged for acquiring the asset.[/quote][/QUOTE]

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

I own at both Jambo and Kidani. They are separate Home Resorts, but part of the same condo association.

Whereas, say, BRV and CCV (which I also own at both) are both separate Home Resorts with separate Condo Associations.

I think the key point is that BRV and CCV are separate condo associations, wheras Jambo and Kidani are in the same association. Because DVC has announced that the new VGF studios will be part of the same association with the existing GF villas, the existing POS should have to be used.

I maintain that DVC shouldn't be able to apply different restrictions on villas in the same association regardless of when they are built. Now, it would be a different matter if they take the BRV/CCV approach and make the new building a completely separate resort in its own condo association. But that's not what has been announced.

 

[Nabas]

20K won’t even buy the bedroom furniture, let along build the kitchenette, redo the floor, or gut and redo the bathroom. Remember this is all industrial stuff built for durability against destructive children while still looking super-premium. Also Disney is terrible at controlling construction costs and everything always costs 2X what it should. $200K+ per room is probably more realistic.

With 3 to 6 months and 200 rooms, do you envision major interior changes to the rooms?

 

[sethschroeder]

A Murphy bed and adding some type of kitchenette is what I see being done.

Why would they redo and gut the rooms when a hard goods refrub is 7 years out for VGF? Wouldn't they want the whole resort on the same timing?

Maybe I am off with 7 years but it hasn't had a hard goods refresh has it?

 

[CarolynFH]

A Murphy bed and adding some type of kitchenette is what I see being done.

Why would they redo and gut the rooms when a hard goods refrub is 7 years out for VGF? Wouldn't they want the whole resort on the same timing?

Maybe I am off with 7 years but it hasn't had a hard goods refresh has it?

My understanding is that the current GF rooms in BPK have 2 queen beds and a daybed, which is probably about the size of the under-TV Murphys in the DVC villas. So maybe a “resort studio” will be the same (2 queens and a daybed) and all they need to do is add the kitchenette components - or maybe “resort studios” don’t have kitchenettes either! Golly gee, it’s hard to wait for all these questions to be answered!

 

[CastAStone]

With 3 to 6 months and 200 rooms, do you envision major interior changes to the rooms?

I don’t see how they can make it a DVC studio without moving a wall. So yes. Even if they didn’t, they’re closing down the whole building, so they can work very quickly.
From the SSR thread:

Each building has 24 studios, 24 one-bedrooms, 20 dedicated two-bedrooms, and 2 grand villas.

if you think of each 1 bedroom as = 2 studios, each 2 bedroom as 3 studios, and each GV as 6 studios, each building has the equivalent of 144 studios. They have gutted them as much as it is possible to gut a building, and it is taking them about 75 days per building.

Same at the All Stars, total gut job, about 200 rooms per building, about 85 days per building.

A Murphy bed and adding some type of kitchenette is what I see being done.

Why would they redo and gut the rooms when a hard goods refrub is 7 years out for VGF? Wouldn't they want the whole resort on the same timing?

Maybe I am off with 7 years but it hasn't had a hard goods refresh has it?

That schedule is right, but the precedent they said it Saratoga springs is separate refurb schedules for the stuff they built later.

 

[sethschroeder]

I don’t see how they can make it a DVC studio without moving a wall. So yes. Even if they didn’t, they’re closing down the whole building, so they can work very quickly.
From the SSR thread:


if you think of each 1 bedroom as = 2 studios, each 2 bedroom as 3 studios, and each GV as 6 studios, each building has the equivalent of 144 studios. They have gutted them as much as it is possible to gut a building, and it is taking them about 75 days per building.

Same at the All Stars, total gut job, about 200 rooms per building, about 85 days per building.


That schedule is right, but the precedent they said it Saratoga springs is separate refurb schedules for the stuff they built later.

SSR though is tree houses which are drastically different not just more studios with different demensions.

Isn't tree house even themed different than the main resort.

 

[Jaydee51]

Did anyone else see this announcement?


View attachment 576293

with the high buy back rate on VGF makes sense they've been planning for upcoming demmand/sales.