New Rumors

[nuts]

Ok, just got back from SSR. Great time (much later). Given rumors flying lately, I spent some time poking around with any DVC associate I could find. Below are some of the discussions I picked up. **Disclaimer** My sources are about as good as yours

Eagle Pines: This is still on the planning board. Contrary to other rumors, it is not done. They actually have done some prep work on the ground.

Contemporary: Yes, this too is being looked at, but no definate answers. WDW not sure it wants to give up this prime piece of land.

Off Site: Don't be surprised if you see offsite announcement soon. Think big! Colorado seems to be top of the list. Looking at building a skiing/golfing year round resort on existing property. Throw in a Disney Quest type entertainment, a Colorado downtown (similar to downtown disney with shops, restaurants with business partners, etc, along with shows, snowmobiling, snow tubing, hiking (summer), jeeping, horseback riding, and DVC believes they will have a hit. Besides, Colorado resorts have been selling out the last 10 years (year round). I asked about cost of land. They said that wasn't an issue, because even for onsite property DVC has to "purchase" the land at market rates from the owning Disney division...so our points costs already are inflated for the market value of the land. They do expect points to keep going up in price, but point usage will be consistent with the onsite properties.

Hawaii is also being looked at, but concerns about travel to get their, plus limited land to build (unlike Colorado).

 

[sjdisneywedding]

Ok, just got back from SSR. Great time (much later). Given rumors flying lately, I spent some time poking around with any DVC associate I could find. Below are some of the discussions I picked up. **Disclaimer** My sources are about as good as yours

Eagle Pines: This is still on the planning board. Contrary to other rumors, it is not done. They actually have done some prep work on the ground.

Contemporary: Yes, this too is being looked at, but no definate answers. WDW not sure it wants to give up this prime piece of land.

Off Site: Don't be surprised if you see offsite announcement soon. Think big! Colorado seems to be top of the list. Looking at building a skiing/golfing year round resort on existing property. Throw in a Disney Quest type entertainment, a Colorado downtown (similar to downtown disney with shops, restaurants with business partners, etc, along with shows, snowmobiling, snow tubing, hiking (summer), jeeping, horseback riding, and DVC believes they will have a hit. Besides, Colorado resorts have been selling out the last 10 years (year round). I asked about cost of land. They said that wasn't an issue, because even for onsite property DVC has to "purchase" the land at market rates from the owning Disney division...so our points costs already are inflated for the market value of the land. They do expect points to keep going up in price, but point usage will be consistent with the onsite properties.

Hawaii is also being looked at, but concerns about travel to get their, plus limited land to build (unlike Colorado).

very interesting stuff, gotta love rumors, they really spark up the discussions on the boards.

Anyway, did you have multiple sources tell you the same things or did different sources tell you diferent things? how many people are we talking about that you talked to: 1, 10, 100. Just curious

thanks

 

[rocketriter]

I don't think our family would buy points in Colorado. But we'd certainly use points to stay in a DVC resort there from time to time.

 

[DebbieB]

I don't think our family would buy points in Colorado. But we'd certainly use points to stay in a DVC resort there from time to time.

I think that is the problem with offsite resorts. People would love to stay in Colorado or Hawaii but would DVC be able to sell the points in a reasonable amount of time? I just don't see it happening.

 

[Doctor P]

That's an interesting question. An off-site option that would have greater appeal to Western and Snowbelt DVC'ers might sell OK, especially with increases in energy prices. I, too, will believe it when I see it, but it would be less farfetched, IMHO, to do an off-site resort in Colorado as compared with many other places--it would definitely break the Disney mold of warm weather US locations.

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

Ok, just got back from SSR. Great time (much later). Given rumors flying lately, I spent some time poking around with any DVC associate I could find. Below are some of the discussions I picked up. **Disclaimer** My sources are about as good as yours

I wonder how many of these rumors are based on things that DVC CMs read on this board and then repeat to other DVC CMs? The rumors are then self-reinforcing.

 

[nuts]

Well, as I said in my disclaimer, my sources are as good as yours. As to the number of folks I talked to...couldn't say exactly, but it was at least a dozen. I tried to sum up common themes. The common theme is that you could see dual development in the near future (offsite and onsite). Colorado is a good choice because it is not too close to Disney that it would distract from sales onsite. However, it opens up to a whole new market on the west (large population currently not served). Remember, they are building to sell and expand their base. Now that the economy is turning around and travel has taken off again, you should see some interesting announcements. Who knows, you may not see phase III of Saratoga. Have you noticed, not a whole lot of talk about it lately?

 

[DrTomorrow]

I think that is the problem with offsite resorts. People would love to stay in Colorado or Hawaii but would DVC be able to sell the points in a reasonable amount of time? I just don't see it happening.

I'm not so sure - turn the idea around. I can see a lot of Western folks buying into a Colorado resort - skiing, hiking, Downtown Disney Colorado - that is only an hour away, with plans to use WDW on an occaisional basis. Again, as I - and others - remind folks, DVC ownership is long-term; there will come a time when a nice relaxing vacation in the clear mountain air of Colorado will sound better than another trip on M:S....

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

The common theme is that you could see dual development in the near future (offsite and onsite). Colorado is a good choice because it is not too close to Disney that it would distract from sales onsite. However, it opens up to a whole new market on the west (large population currently not served).?

Keep in mind that Disney already killed a DVC project in Colorado once. Otherwise, there would now be a DVC resort at Beaver Creek.

One thing has changed since the mid-1990s. There are now 90,000 existing DVC members to whom off-site resorts can be marketed. Those 90,000 members -- presumably most of whom are satisfied with DVC -- represent a good starting point to whom off-site DVC resorts can be marketed.

However, there are more things that haven't changed. Prime ski resort development sites are still costly real estate investments. (The same is true for prime beachfront sites and any other prime vacaton sites, for that matter.) And it would be much more difficult and expensive to market DCV resort memberships off-site than at WDW.

Who knows, you may not see phase III of Saratoga. Have you noticed, not a whole lot of talk about it lately?

In late May 2004, the Orlando Sentinel published the announcement that Disney would add an additional 276 units to the Saratoga Springs Resort and Spa as phase III. There is absolutely no reason to think that anything has changed. It's not surprising that there has not been "a whole lot of talk about it lately." Construction won't begin until the buildings will be needed upon completion. There's no reason to expect additional announcements about phase III because nothing has changed.

 

[disney queen]

when we were in wdw in early december, we saw a resort across/very near to caribbean resort. we asked what it was and was told it is eagle pines. i asked again here on the boards and was told the same thing.

 

[DebbieB]

when we were in wdw in early december, we saw a resort across/very near to caribbean resort. we asked what it was and was told it is eagle pines. i asked again here on the boards and was told the same thing.

That is Bonnet Creek Resort, owned by Fairfield Timeshares.

http://www.efairfield.com/inside/resorts/0064.asp

 

[nuts]

In late May 2004, the Orlando Sentinel published the announcement that Disney would add an additional 276 units to the Saratoga Springs Resort and Spa as phase III. There is absolutely no reason to think that anything has changed. It's not surprising that there has not been "a whole lot of talk about it lately." Construction won't begin until the buildings will be needed upon completion. There's no reason to expect additional announcements about phase III because nothing has changed.

So true, but I can also show you major press release on Eagle Pines...did that happen? May still happen, but they changed their strategy.

- Nuts (about Disney)
"Its2aZoo"

 

[crisi]

Keep in mind DVC has a darn good idea how many members "trade" to Colorado or Hawaii currently - perhaps there are even enough to keep those points "in the system" and make this low risk. At this point they have far more data than they did ten years ago on where we want to vacation.

Given energy prices and airline stablity, I'd be nervous about Hawaii. But Colorado is far more reachable.

 

[tjkraz]

I think the biggest challenge DVC faces is getting people to disassociate the "Disney" name from Orlando and Anaheim. There are successful timeshares in all parts of the world. But, there is also a large segment of the world that will cringe at the word "Disney" only be able to conjure up images of castles and costumed characters.

I have a similar feeling to others here: while another off-site location with reasonable room costs (points) is very attractive, I can't see myself buying points in such a resort.

The plan outlined here--an entire vacation destination rather than just a resort--sounds like the best formula for success. IMO, you've got to give guests more than just a room with the Disney name to really make people start to take notice. But it still sounds like an incredibly risky venture.

If there's any truth to this, I bet there will be some Disney "suits" losing sleep for a loooooong time waiting to see how those sales numbers look.

 

[Chuck S]

On top of that, an off-site DVC would have to be in competition with countless other "brand name" timeshares, especially in popular areas for those sales dollars. DVC can claim they are the ONLY Timeshare on WDW property.

So, DVC would either have to sell those off-site properties for less per point to compete with the other companies, or somehow guarantee those owners onsite rooms at 7 months in order for them to charge the higher buy-in and maintenance.

Which means that new off-site owners would be paying $15 to $20 per point less for the "same" benefits, and many more of "them" would probably be trying to trade "into" WDW than on-site owners are trading out, really making that 11/7 window (which can legally decrease to a 11/10 window) very crucial.

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

So true, but I can also show you major press release on Eagle Pines...did that happen? May still happen, but they changed their strategy.

The big difference is that -- after the Eagle Pines announcement -- Disney announced a DVC resort at the old Disney Institute site when that site became available. Later, Disney announced that this resort would be called the Saratoga Springs Resort and Spa. Although neither announcement mentioned the previously announced DVC resort at Eagle Pines, nobody expected DVC to open two different resorts in spring 2004.

In contrast, there is no reason to believe that Disney that the May 2004 announcement about phase III of SSR is now invaild.

 

[nuts]

In contrast, there is no reason to believe that Disney that the May 2004 announcement about phase III of SSR is now invaild.

Hmmm, sorry, your logic doesn't hold water. Disney has proven that just because they announce something doesn't mean they will follow through. But, as I said in my original note, they haven't decided yet whether or not to make the investment.

 

[Doctor P]

Sorry, but I'm with Horace on this one, even if the logic may not be perfect. There is absolutely no reason to believe that Phase III of SSR does not continue to be the top priority of DVD at this stage. The Eagle Pines thing is very unique, IMHO, and, it should be noted, that Eagle Pines appears to have been delayed not cancelled.

 

[RoutemanDan]

.......

somehow guarantee those owners onsite rooms at 7 months in order for them to charge the higher buy-in and maintenance.

..... really making that 11/7 window (which can legally decrease to a 11/10 window) very crucial.

I think we will see the home resort priority window reduced in the near future.

 

[doubletrouble_vb]

Originally I said I couldn't see Colorado...but now I can. With ski resorts people pay a premium for prime weeks so I would see the initial selling price there as being higher than DVC not lower. Presumably the golf weeks would sell at market for the location...I don't know about the low seasons. The best way to go would be for Disney to buy a resort and re-theme it as everything Disney. There is a market for well-executed family resorts...take a look at Smuggler's Notch. At the same time ski resorts cost a fortune to run but there are companies that need to dump resorts so with Disney's deep pockets they could make it happen.

And yes I'd buy an add-on at a location like that just to be sure I could book mid-week time in season and later back it up at 7 months with weekend time (or vice versa if the points aren't quite scheduled the way I want them).