New policy impact on resale

[mab2012]

I haven't been watching resale listings closely for the past few months, but looking at TTS listings today, it looks like there are far more available contracts and far fewer "sale pending" listings than there were when I was looking to buy last fall.

I'm not seeing much of a difference in price - yet. But if inventory is up, it's reasonable to expect that prices will eventually fall.

Anyone been watching this more closely for the past month or so? Close enough to tell if there's been a difference in inventory since the new resale policy restrictions were announced?

 

[supersnoop]

Inventory has been up for the past few months. There were about half as many resales available six months ago. I credit the uptick in sales price for the increase in inventory. I'd expect the inventory to decline after the resale change; not increase.

 

[Supplanter]

Id read fall is generally the time most people buy resale (went on a summer vacation, got interested and then started looking) so it'd make sense inventory would be higher now.

 

[pmaurer74]

There were so few contracts last summer it seemed and inventory has been up for awhile. I expect the higher summer demand will make a dent in inventory soon.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

The resale change announcement was just a week ago. The inventory had been on the rise for a couple of months anyway.

 

[mab2012]

Okay, clearly lots of people paying closer attention than me. Thanks for the responses. It wasn't the inventory alone that made me wonder, so much as the "sale pending" listings - last fall it seemed like half of the listings were listed as "sale pending", and now there's only a handful. That could just be a difference in how long they're posted for though, or sales could be slower for seasonal or other reasons, as many of you have pointed out.

I'd expect the inventory to decline after the resale change; not increase.

Really? Why?

 

[supersnoop]

Really? Why?

If you were thinking about selling, would the recent changes make you more likely or less likely to sell? I imagine more people will reconsider selling and hold on to their contracts. The market has been hot with price headed up, lots of people were selling because they could make a profit, not because they really needed to sell. Now, those sellers probably don't want to lose their benefits. Hence, fewer contracts on the market.

 

[pmaurer74]

I always look at the listing date if they have those to see how long most have been on the market. The ones I was looking at were mostly March list dates.

 

[mab2012]

If you were thinking about selling, would the recent changes make you more likely or less likely to sell? I imagine more people will reconsider selling and hold on to their contracts. The market has been hot with price headed up, lots of people were selling because they could make a profit, not because they really needed to sell. Now, those sellers probably don't want to lose their benefits. Hence, fewer contracts on the market.

I really don't think it will have much impact on seller behaviour at all. What you're suggesting would only apply to a seller who was considering selling their only contract, with the intention of buying back in later. I suppose there might have been a few of those, but I think they'd be the exception (and they can't have been too worried about losing their benefits if they were prepared to sell their only contract). I agree that lots of people were probably selling because the prices are high, but I'd guess that the large, large majority were either considering getting out anyway, or selling one of multiple contracts to get rid of excess points.

I'm not really sure that the recent changes will have any impact at all, but if they do, I'd think it more likely to impact buyer behaviour, encouraging some buyers to either go direct or not buy at all, hence increasing inventory (assuming other factors remain constant).

 

[malba2366]

There are some people who are put off by "being a second class citizen" etc. But to me the pure financial calculation still works. We know we want to go to Disney 2 out of 3 years as our children grow up (and likely a cruise on the other year). We would want to stay at a deluxe resort each time and get a 1 bedroom room each time. Even assuming the timeshare is worth $0 20 years from now (very unlikely) and that the Disney room rates and maintenance fees rise at the same rate, I would still come out ahead.

I think eventually buyers will figure this out and for the resale. Most resale buyers (that are not on here) are probably not even aware of the changes and they will be buried in the print in their contracts.

With that being said, I will probably try to buy a 25 point BLT contract after we get one through resale. The annual pass discount for me is worth it based on our future travel plans.

 

[Supplanter]

There are some people who are put off by "being a second class citizen" etc. But to me the pure financial calculation still works. We know we want to go to Disney 2 out of 3 years as our children grow up (and likely a cruise on the other year). We would want to stay at a deluxe resort each time and get a 1 bedroom room each time. Even assuming the timeshare is worth $0 20 years from now (very unlikely) and that the Disney room rates and maintenance fees rise at the same rate, I would still come out ahead.

I think eventually buyers will figure this out and for the resale. Most resale buyers (that are not on here) are probably not even aware of the changes and they will be buried in the print in their contracts.

With that being said, I will probably try to buy a 25 point BLT contract after we get one through resale. The annual pass discount for me is worth it based on our future travel plans.

That's a good point about the value. That's why I went ssr. I laid out how many years were left at each location, how much points generally sold for, how much dues are and the rate of inflation in dues the last few years and then calculated it out.

Saratoga will provide almost 3x value for each point, not including inflation of currency over that time period. I only need to go on around 8 trips to make it worth it and weve already discussed 2 more we were going to go on next year. Bay lake tower was close to the same value needing a little more than 9 trips to pay off.
Some of the others weren't a great deal anymore, but have appeal for other reasons. For us, we want to go to aulani annually, nights at the grand cal sporadically and a trip or two to Disney world. Getting a discount on that is awesome

 

[malba2366]

I usually check the DVC Search Engine daily and haven't seen a new listing since April 6, which seems unusual since there are usually a few new listings every day. Not sure if it's broken or nobody is listing since the news.

I don't think that site is working. The resale I just came to an agreement is not on there and it was posted for sale on Saturday.

 

[Cinderella624]

So I lost out on being grandfathered in due to the sellers not signing my contract in time ( they waited almost two weeks after receiving it) I renegotiated because they were supposed to sign by 3/31/16 but as of 4/7 they had not so according to my contract I could cancel and receive all my deposit back. I lowered my offer to 79 per pt for SSR. Originally it was 85 per pt. Anyway I am still upset about the changes and that I ended up with sellers that basically had me lose the perks but I am trying to be happy about the lower price. I originally purchased SSR due to the price but now as I think about it I'm really excited about this particular resort due to the close proximity of disney springs which can be walked to or a boat taken to. It offers so much entertainment, dining and shopping not to mention it just looks cool from the shore of SSR

 

[pinklotusflower]

Cinderella you'll really enjoy SSR it's a lovely resort and it's really nice to be able to walk to Disney Springs, they had some really good life entertainment when we were there last year.

 

[Cinderella624]

Cinderella you'll really enjoy SSR it's a lovely resort and it's really nice to be able to walk to Disney Springs, they had some really good life entertainment when we were there last year.

Thank so much! I'm really looking forward to it!

 

[jerseyduke]

Also realize, that until 2042, with every passing year, there are more and more contracts, and more and more members. If a certain percentage of DVC owners need to sell a contract for whatever reason, and that percentage stays the same, the number of contracts will go up every year.

 

[pmaurer74]

I have been watching the Facebook threads and there seems to still be a ton of interest despite the new resale restrictions on perks. If there is a dip, I think it will be temporary and by summer things will be as normal. I could be wrong but many people seem to still want DVC resale anyway.

 

[SuperRob]

I suspect the impact will be minimal. It's easy enough to get those benefits with a 25 point purchase direct. Plus, I believe the majority of resale shoppers already have at least one contract direct. It may very slightly depress prices (since points are slightly less valuable), but I don't think by very much, even less so for larger contracts.