Here is my take...
First of all, I have been a DISer and a Disney specialist TA for going on 9 years now. I own an EarMarked specialty agency. I created a new account to post for reasons detailed below.
A couple of pages back someone wondered why TAs aren't confirming the rumor as they have in the past. I guarantee it is because Disney is cracking down on leaks and no one wants to risk their relationship with Disney over it. It's not worth it. As an EarMarked account, I don't want to lose that status so I won't confirm anything despite many client emails and phone calls. I also don't want to lose the respect and trust of my district sales manager. My DSM does share info with me in advance, which I appreciate. If I break the rules, that will stop. I got an email a while back from my DSM with info on the release of a new offer - booking dates and travel dates but not specifics on what the offer would be. Two days later I got an email marked urgent that said that there had been leaks of info and reminding me that I was specifically instructed not to share with anyone outside the agency and that agencies who had shared would be getting phone calls that were not going to be pleasant. Those of us who keep in touch with agents at other agencies have heard about these calls either directly or indirectly and no one is going to risk being on the receiving end of those calls! This has always been the rule but this year they are starting to actually enforce it. Notice how Mousesavers used to always have advance notice and now they don't? This is why.
Will the offer go to Visa cardholders first? I don't know for sure, but I can tell you that my DSM has never, in over 7 years of having regular and consistent contact with them, given me notice of a Visa release date. I've been told the DSMs don't know when those will go out and when they won't. What I do know is that when Disney tells me a release date, it is always and without fail the release date for the public offer. There is a first for everything, but my money is on a general public release.
Resort availability fluctuates. A few years ago on a tour of the reservation center we had the chance to speak with a guest services supervisor. The answer we were given was that for every offer, each resort has a target occupancy percentage loaded in to the computer. If it is 80% (just picking a number out of the air), when they are below that the offer is available, when they hit it it's not available. If it drops below that magic line because of cancellations, it's available again. This is why a resort may be "sold out" for an offer right at the start and then available not long after. For instance several times with
free dining I've had clients booked at Pop who wanted Pop and nothing else. At 7 am nothing is available at Pop with free dining but it is available at Sports. These clients don't want sports. Each time within 24 hours I call back and can get them in to Pop. Why? Because others booked at Pop either changed resorts or dates and it dropped below the magic number. This has happened many times. When there are multiple offers, the magic number may be different for each offer depending on how it affects Disney's bottom line.
Some resorts will not have any availability for certain dates from the get-go. I can assure you there is no way they are taking full price rooms out of inventory to set aside for free dining or any other promotion! If they can book it at full price, they will. There are several big conventions at the Epcot area resorts in October. Disney makes a killing on these conventions not just with rooms sold but with conference space, special events, catering etc. If the conference room block was getting full, I would not be surprised if they pulled some extra rooms for the conference before releasing a discount. Same with Coronado, Contemporary and sometimes Grand Floridian. There is a good chance these resorts are going to be full and have very limited availability for free dining in certain weeks in October. There are a lot of dates I have trouble finding full price availability for clients.
Someone mentioned being concerned about their TA being diligent about applying a code. If it's a Disney specialist, I can just about assure you they will because they get it and you know that they have heard about it either directly from Disney or from clients who are reading about it online! EarMarked agencies have a priority phone line that gets them through quickly. From what we are told, there are more CMs working the TA lines (regular and EarMarked) than the public line because they know those calls are going to be longer since we are modifying a stack of reservations each rather than just one. I know that for me personally, in all the years they've done free dining, I've yet to have a client with an existing reservation whose vacation falls in the available dates that we weren't able to get the offer for (KNOCK ON WOOD!). Sure, some people may have had to change views and an even smaller number had to change resorts, but they all got the deal! We've had new quote requests that we have to tell it's sold out for free dining, but never an existing booking (except for blackout dates).We try to advise people that, based on historical trends, there dates are at risk for blackout when they book so if their dates are flexible, they know that in advance. I dont have too many in that situation now and for those who are, I have notes on if their dates are at all flexible for the right deal.
My advice is call as soon as you are able to but if it isn't 7 am on the nose because your work schedule won't allow you to be on the phone then, relax! Your chances are still very good of getting a code applied. If you call and can't get your favorite resort, try back later and keep checking back because you never know if it may become available to change back to once the dust starts to settle from the initial shuffling.