New Disney Ships: News, Rumors, Speculation.....and Names!

[holula]

They already signed the contract, so possible, but doubtful.

Disney Cruise Line: Bernard Meyer signs largest order in the history of MEYER WERFT​

https://www.cruiseshipportal.com/ne...-largest-order-in-the-history-of-meyer-werft/

The one hopeful thing in this is that it says details of the ships are currently being developed. Not four more Triton class ships.

 

[RangerPooh]

Ultimately, DCL is a business. It’s not ordering four more ships to make its product more affordable and it’s going to maximize its profits by offering a Disney experience. Doesn’t matter what our feelings for the mega ships are, if you’re DCL it’s hard to ignore the profits and high guest satisfaction those ships deliver. I’ve yet to be on an Oasis/ Icon ship but every single person I know who has tells me it’s the greatest cruise of their lives.

It would not surprise me if Disney starts to explore more offerings such as what RCL offers. We have four kids spanning ages 13-19 and they have enjoyed the offerings of DCL, but there is some lacking for the teen/young adult audience. My clan prefers the Dream over the Wish for the teen club, but they are excited about our spring cruise planned for RCL Wonder of the Seas. The rock climbing wall, ability to ice skate, zip lone, etc has them excited.

The Wish lacked mini golf that was available on the Dream. So the idea to bring new offerings and experiences may be needed. A previous poster mentioned the Boardwalk/Central Park sections of the ship could be conceptualized as Main Street USA or even lands. The ships don't have to become the mega behemoths that RCL or NCL are offering, but it might be an opportunity to reconceptualize.

 

[Lucien Franciosa]

I'm just arguing in terms of micro economics. If there are `N` number of people in Disney's market segment for a given Disney Capacity `C`, and now `C > N`, then to fill ships Disney will need to expand into other market segments to fill their ships. They can do this by competing on amenities and/or on price.

I'm guessing that Disney's thesis is that their ships are all sailing full, and that `N` is much much larger than they thought. So they can increase capacity `C` substantially without changing strategy. That may be the case, but why would they so greatly increase their capacity all at once? Seems very risky, and if they oversupply the market, they are "forced" to change either pricing or amenities to keep their ships full.

And it IS a really dramatic increase in supply. They are moving from 13,400 capacity thru 2021, to 35,400 after the introduction of Triton 4, to 57,400+ after they introduce the next 4 ships (I'm using a capacity number of 5,500, but could easily be higher). They are more than quadrupling their size in under a decade. That's basically unheard of in the cruise industry.

View attachment 885387

Numbers for existing and confirmed future fleet taken from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Disney_Cruise_Line_ships

There is no arguing its a large increase in supply. But so? I understood the models you were basing your conclusions on, I just don't think that you have thought out the fact that N is not as constrained when you expand by geography. I think thats what Disney is doing. You seemed to be saying these numbers would push Disney into more typical market responses. I think the data suggests the opposite, Disney is leaning more into leveraging its uniqueness, and increasing N by increasing where it goes. Only time will tell.

 

[o&smom]

What’s the Japan ship and that’s the 4th one meant to be, is it like the wish

Yes, same plan as Wish, Treasure and Destiny

 

[Flossbolna]

One thing to know is that Meyer Werft currently has financial issues. The lot issue is that the down payment for a ship is 20% and the rest is being paid at delivery. They currently are struggling with financing building their ships as everything from steel to electricity to wages has gone up since the deals for those ships that are being built now have been signed.

I am wondering if DCL got some sort of sweet deal because they just threw 5 more ship orders (the one OLC ship and now these 4) at Meyer Werft which should help with short term cash flow.

 

[happycamper47]

One thing to know is that Meyer Werft currently has financial issues. The lot issue is that the down payment for a ship is 20% and the rest is being paid at delivery. They currently are struggling with financing building their ships as everything from steel to electricity to wages has gone up since the deals for those ships that are being built now have been signed.

I am wondering if DCL got some sort of sweet deal because they just threw 5 more ship orders (the one OLC ship and now these 4) at Meyer Werft which should help with short term cash flow.

What's also interesting is the first of the 4 DCL ships is scheduled to be delivered before the OLC ship. 2027 for DCL and 2028 for OLC.

The Papenburg-based yard has been commissioned to build a Disney Wish-class cruise ship for the Japanese market
The new ship is scheduled for delivery in 2028. It is a sistership to three 135,000-gt cruise ships that the shipyard is building for Disney Cruise Line.

 

[peder]

There is no arguing its a large increase in supply. But so? I understood the models you were basing your conclusions on, I just don't think that you have thought out the fact that N is as constrained when you expand by geography. I think thats what Disney is doing. You seemed to be saying these numbers would push Disney into more typical market responses. I think the data suggests the opposite, Disney is leaning more into leveraging its uniqueness, and increasing N by increasing where it goes. Only time will tell.

Agreed that there are multiple Ns, there's Nusa and Neurope and Nasia so I agree that they can reach customers they've never reached before yet by expanding into new geographies. I don't think the addressable cruise market is very large for Disney outside the US (largely due to the huge income disparities and size of the American upper middle class compared to elsewhere), but we'll see.

 

[HeadNerd]

They already signed the contract, so possible, but doubtful.

Disney Cruise Line: Bernard Meyer signs largest order in the history of MEYER WERFT​

https://www.cruiseshipportal.com/ne...-largest-order-in-the-history-of-meyer-werft/

I stand corrected. I imagine there are some provisions to delay or such on ships that haven’t been started on yet, but you’re right. I retract that part of my post.

 

[HeadNerd]

It would not surprise me if Disney starts to explore more offerings such as what RCL offers. We have four kids spanning ages 13-19 and they have enjoyed the offerings of DCL, but there is some lacking for the teen/young adult audience. My clan prefers the Dream over the Wish for the teen club, but they are excited about our spring cruise planned for RCL Wonder of the Seas. The rock climbing wall, ability to ice skate, zip lone, etc has them excited.

The Wish lacked mini golf that was available on the Dream. So the idea to bring new offerings and experiences may be needed. A previous poster mentioned the Boardwalk/Central Park sections of the ship could be conceptualized as Main Street USA or even lands. The ships don't have to become the mega behemoths that RCL or NCL are offering, but it might be an opportunity to reconceptualize.

Exactly. Imagine having an actual Disney attraction on a Boardwalk-like space. Nothing huge but a simple FantasyLand dark ride or Star Tours like simulator ride. And the Promenade is just begging to be Main Street USA. Expand the Hero zone and do ice skating and laser tag and escape rooms like RCL does. Heck NCL does bumper cars on a few of their ships, imagine what the Imagineers could do.

Combine that with a Club 33 experience for Concierge with a private pool and restaurant to compete with the Haven. We already know Disney fans are willing to spend exorbitant sums on Deluxe resorts, etc. The Triton-class concierge on Wish was an improvement for that group but nowhere near best in class.

I get the fears about Mega ships and the thousands of additional passengers. But honestly when I was on the Oasis-class ships they didn’t feel much more crowded than Wish.. and actually were easier to get around.

 

[djpflug23]

Agreed that there are multiple Ns, there's Nusa and Neurope and Nasia so I agree that they can reach customers they've never reached before yet by expanding into new geographies. I don't think the addressable cruise market is very large for Disney outside the US (largely due to the huge income disparities and size of the American upper middle class compared to elsewhere), but we'll see.

Don't forget Nusa-south, Nusa-west, etc. I think there's a lot of people in the US who haven't sailed with DCL and would, or who would sail a lot more if it were more accessible to them. My family's an example of this. We've sailed with DCL 13 times, but would sail even more often if they sailed out of Galveston year round.

 

[HeadNerd]

Don't forget Nusa-south, Nusa-west, etc. I think there's a lot of people in the US who haven't sailed with DCL and would, or who would sail a lot more if it were more accessible to them. My family's an example of this. We've sailed with DCL 13 times, but would sail even more often if they sailed out of Galveston year round.

I agree. I’m in SF Bay Area and although it’s easy enough to fly down to San Diego and hop on the Magic or Wonder, that gets old quick. With all the Disney fans around Disneyland, I imagine a mega ship out of LA or San Diego could attract a huge number up and down the coast.

Heck, remember Port Disney in Long Beach? I’m sure it won’t happen after dying the first time but I still mourn the face that we could have had a Disney theme park like DisneySea plus a cruise ship port all right there.

 

[nmoody1]

I'm sure after acquiring Global Dream (Adventure) they will be already scrutinising a new design that incorporates some kind of promenade. I wouldn't look to Main Street theme as that's not IP enough - Mickey Avenue, maybe.

No matter what, anyone that's been sailing with DCL for a long time will certainly miss the personalisation and small operation feeling. This could be the final nail in the coffin for many more old school DCL cruisers - but I'm sure they have lots of potential new customers in lots of new markets, so not a massive problem for them - plus I'm sure first time cruisers probably are willing to spend more anyway.

 

[peder]

Exactly. Imagine having an actual Disney attraction on a Boardwalk-like space. Nothing huge but a simple FantasyLand dark ride or Star Tours like simulator ride. And the Promenade is just begging to be Main Street USA. Expand the Hero zone and do ice skating and laser tag and escape rooms like RCL does. Heck NCL does bumper cars on a few of their ships, imagine what the Imagineers could do.

Combine that with a Club 33 experience for Concierge with a private pool and restaurant to compete with the Haven. We already know Disney fans are willing to spend exorbitant sums on Deluxe resorts, etc. The Triton-class concierge on Wish was an improvement for that group but nowhere near best in class.

I get the fears about Mega ships and the thousands of additional passengers. But honestly when I was on the Oasis-class ships they didn’t feel much more crowded than Wish.. and actually were easier to get around.

On the rides front, I think they could use projectors plus trackless ride systems to make rides that change throughout a cruise. Monday you get a mini Rise of the Resistance, then Tuesday you get a mini Runaway Railway. Because the projectors can make everything dynamic and because the trackless ride systems can move dynamically, you have total flexibility to create new rides, continuously.

A trackless ride system would not be very space efficient, but given that you can make it dynamic and change it every day (or even multiple times per day), you have the potential to create a premium experience that will be very heavily used. Looking just at FantasyLand, the system could shift from Winnie the Pooh to Mr Toads, from Snow White to Small World (and the trackless system could even rock back and forth like you're on a boat for Small World).

And on the pool decks, I think there's room to make AquaMouse have multiple lanes if you have wider ships. If AquaMouse were on an Oasis-class or MSC World-class ship, they could have two separate AquaMouses, one on each part of the Y at the aft of the ship, for instance. And each could have a slightly different dark-ride experience.

And I love the idea of "Club 33" branding for DCL Concierge. It provides a place where you can escape all the hustle and bustle to your serene Concierge sundeck and restaurant.

 

[nmoody1]

On the rides front, I think they could use projectors plus trackless ride systems to make rides that change throughout a cruise. Monday you get a mini Rise of the Resistance, then Tuesday you get a mini Runaway Railway. Because the projectors can make everything dynamic and because the trackless ride systems can move dynamically, you have total flexibility to create new rides, continuously.

A trackless ride system would not be very space efficient, but given that you can make it dynamic and change it every day (or even multiple times per day), you have the potential to create a premium experience that will be very heavily used.

And on the pool decks, I think there's room to make AquaMouse have multiple lanes if you have wider ships. If AquaMouse were on an Oasis-class or MSC World-class ship, they could have two separate AquaMouses, one on each part of the Y at the aft of the ship, for instance. And each could have a slightly different dark-ride experience.

And I love the idea of "Club 33" branding for DCL Concierge. It provides a place where you can escape all the hustle and bustle to your serene Concierge sundeck and restaurant.

It's also worth noting, that whilst I can't see a true dark ride ever coming to a ship, Disney did file a patent a few years ago that was a blank room that uses projections to create ride experiences (probably similar to some scenes in Runaway railroad) which could be used to bring an attraction (and one that could change daily) to a ship.

Also, having access to Industrial Light and Magic - with some of the work used with The Void - a VR experience could also come to the ships, again, these could change daily and would come with an upcharge I'm sure.

 

[peder]

It's also worth noting, that whilst I can't see a true dark ride ever coming to a ship

Right, I'd qualify this as "almost like a real dark ride at Magic Kingdom" level of experience. Something that would still be a premium attraction for a ship, but wouldn't have the same depth as the real dark rides because they'd be projector-only.

But obviously this is only possible if they can carve out the space for it on a lower deck.

 

[sponica]

Exactly. Imagine having an actual Disney attraction on a Boardwalk-like space. Nothing huge but a simple FantasyLand dark ride or Star Tours like simulator ride. And the Promenade is just begging to be Main Street USA. Expand the Hero zone and do ice skating and laser tag and escape rooms like RCL does. Heck NCL does bumper cars on a few of their ships, imagine what the Imagineers could do.

Combine that with a Club 33 experience for Concierge with a private pool and restaurant to compete with the Haven. We already know Disney fans are willing to spend exorbitant sums on Deluxe resorts, etc. The Triton-class concierge on Wish was an improvement for that group but nowhere near best in class.

I get the fears about Mega ships and the thousands of additional passengers. But honestly when I was on the Oasis-class ships they didn’t feel much more crowded than Wish.. and actually were easier to get around.

This sounds like an absolute nightmare for me.

 

[ngl]

Read through the posts as best as I could but did not see any talk of this but, if so, please direct me to the link! Any talk of what port cities they may use for the new ships? (Of course, besides the one previously announced). We live in Tampa and would love to get a DCL ship in our port. However, we have ship size limitations due to the channel and Sunshine Skyway but was curious if anyone knows if the Magic or Wonder could fit? (I know we have some experts on these topics here!) I know the new ones would be far too big.

 

[scroogie]

Read through the posts as best as I could but did not see any talk of this but, if so, please direct me to the link! Any talk of what port cities they may use for the new ships?

All that was mentioned on this front at D23 is that itineraries and ports are still being worked out.

 

[LAS2AMS]

It’ll be years before the home ports and itineraries are revealed. But it’s reasonable to expect that they will be used to fill out that schedule - that is, increasing service to Los Angeles and Galveston (both previously mentioned by DCL), going to two year round ships from Fort Lauderdale and adding a second ship in Europe. NYC, expanded seasonal San Juan, etc. are likely candidates as well.

I highly doubt DCL will go to Tampa. Budget itineraries (Tampa typically houses Royal’s cheapest itineraries) would sway dollars from PC. Consider that multiple bloggers reported that DCL wasn’t happy with the performance in New Orleans. Ultimately they’re going to expect a hefty premium so that rules out secondary ports and regular exotic itineraries.

 

[HeadNerd]

This sounds like an absolute nightmare for me.

And you got lots of likes on your post for sure. I think this is why RCL and others have their smaller ships and then the mega-ships. Diversity of options is great.

When I first heard about a second Disney private island I was excited they were finally going to compete with Perfect Day at CoCoCay. They literally already have two water parks at WDW to emulate. Put them on an island. Instead they did a basic carbon copy with retheming of Castaway Cay. If DCL really wants to encourage lifelong business and get teens / young adults, they’re going to need to cater to this space more. While not abandoning the cruisers who prefer the smaller and more sedate ships, keep those options too!