New Disney Ships: News, Rumors, Speculation.....and Names!

[holula]

The bigger Alaska ships have to homeport in Seattle though. Disney tried that in 2012 and every year since has gone to Vancouver which means better port times and less rocky conditions through the inside passage between Vancouver Island and the mainland.

If Disney did homeport in Seattle for Alaska, I would pick another line as that Victoria stop eats into your time in Alaska.

 

[LAS2AMS]

The bigger Alaska ships have to homeport in Seattle though. Disney tried that in 2012 and every year since has gone to Vancouver which means better port times and less rocky conditions through the inside passage between Vancouver Island and the mainland.

If Disney did homeport in Seattle for Alaska, I would pick another line as that Victoria stop eats into your time in Alaska.

DCL is hyper aggressive in pitching one port against another to get the best deal. See: Port Everglades over Miami, San Diego over Los Angeles, Vancouver over Seattle and *almost* Houston over Galveston. It’s not being done for the passenger’s benefit - they’re certainly not passing down any cost savings .

The Dream/ Fantasy would fit under the bridge in Vancouver and would be an upgrade - to most people - over the Wonder.

 

[LAS2AMS]

I still suspect the Magic and Wonder will be around for a while. Maybe to continue to open up new markets/countries as a “starter ship” before one of the newer ones moves in once the business is off the ground in that locality.

Here’s another vote for hoping they aren’t Triton-class but something new. I love the amenities on the Wish but some if the architecture is a head-scratcher. (Dead ends?)

Also, I know many hate the massive new ships, but having been on an Oasis-class ship in RCL.. wow, there’s a lot of impressive things Disney could do with all the space. Theme park at sea could literally be a thing.

Judging by the fares Royal gets for its Oasis/ Icon Class ships… a whole lot more people like them than hate them . Hence why Carnival - which said several years ago it would never operate similar ships - just placed an order for its Mega Ships.

The Magic/ Wonder are at the end of their service life. Both ships now over 30, which means their subject to more frequent and compressive maintenance requirements. It doesn’t make economic sense to keep them over the long-term.

 

[scroogie]

The Magic/ Wonder are at the end of their service life. Both ships now over 30, which means their subject to more frequent and compressive maintenance requirements. It doesn’t make economic sense to keep them over the long-term.

The Magic and Wonder were designed 35• years ago when Carnival’s Fantasy Class was the cat’s meow.

Something's slightly off with your sums

DCL wasn't formed until 1995, 29 years ago, and the Magic and Wonder are 26 and 25 respectively (1998 and 1999 maiden voyages). They certainly aren't 30 year-old ships designed over 35 years ago.

 

[holula]

The Dream/ Fantasy would fit under the bridge in Vancouver and would be an upgrade - to most people - over the Wonder.

My whole ‘want’ is that they will build a purpose built Alaska ship though. If they build a Triton plus class eg bigger then likely she won’t be able to home port in Vancouver. And neither the Dream or Fantasy have things like… indoor cafes with floor to ceiling windows.

If they built two ships that with cold weather in mind (and that could fit under the PC bridge and Lionsgate Bridge), they could send one to Alaska and one to Northern Europe and potentially have two ships in Europe - one in the north and one in the med.

 

[LAS2AMS]

Something's slightly off with your sums

DCL wasn't formed until 1995, 29 years ago, and the Magic and Wonder are 26 and 25 respectively (1998 and 1999 maiden voyages). They certainly aren't 30 year-old ships designed over 35 years ago.

Good catch - I was thinking ‘when all of these ships are delivered the Magic and Wonder will be over 30.’ It’s late

But the ships are a nearly 35yo design. They were ordered in 1995, the same year DCL was formed. Yet Disney said they spent years developing the ships. Most likely, they were designed under another umbrella of Disney until the company decided it wanted to move forward with DCL, then it formed a new entity. This is pretty common among large corps that spend on vanity projects (think Google). And I recall that Disney initially envisioned Disney Cruises as a managed/ licensed umbrella of a large cruise line but ultimately decided to go on their own.

 

[croschek05]

4 new ships! I hope one of them permanently comes out of NY!!!

 

[SomePixiedust]

4 new ships! I hope one of them permanently comes out of NY!!!

I'm with you on this!!!!! It could rotate between Canada/New England, Bermuda and Port Canaveral/Nassau itineraries. I'd be on the verge of financial ruin but I'm ok with that

 

[RML18]

I’d be more than happy if Disney wants to return port with the Wonder or Magic out of NOLA. Being an hour away, this would be awesome.

 

[Dug720]

PLEASE let someone who has actually been on a cruise design the new ships!!!!

 

[OKW Lover]

4 new ships! I hope one of them permanently comes out of NY!!!

I'm wondering how realistic this is for the winter months.

 

[Dug720]

I'm wondering how realistic this is for the winter months.

Royal, MSC, and NCL have ships out of NYC in the winter. Yes the first and last day and a half are pretty much inside, but it's very realistic.

 

[kappaman14]

Good catch - I was thinking ‘when all of these ships are delivered the Magic and Wonder will be over 30.’ It’s late

But the ships are a nearly 35yo design. They were ordered in 1995, the same year DCL was formed. Yet Disney said they spent years developing the ships. Most likely, they were designed under another umbrella of Disney until the company decided it wanted to move forward with DCL, then it formed a new entity. This is pretty common among large corps that spend on vanity projects (think Google). And I recall that Disney initially envisioned Disney Cruises as a managed/ licensed umbrella of a large cruise line but ultimately decided to go on their own.

For what it’s worth, my expectation is that the Magic/Wonder will sail until ongoing maintenance costs get to be too high to justify. We talked through this with senior staff on the Wonder last year, and they said the real risk is the plumbing systems; if the Wonder suffers a significant systems failure, it wouldn’t be cost effective to fix.

Beyond that, you should think about this the way you would a car that’s paid off. The new ships have a “car loan” (debt obligation from their construction); the Magic & Wonder are “paid off”. Rather than thinking about the lower margin/stateroom and lesser headcount/sailing, think of it as all upside because the ships are profitable and not costing Disney opportunities (since they’re still not able to cover the map with or without the two older ships).

My guess is the DCL execs are pursing dual paths: ideally in 2031 they have 13 ships (inclusive of Japan) but they’re also realistic that the wrong thing can break on the Magic/Wonder at any time.

 

[peder]

With these changes, Disney will be somewhere between Celebrity and NCL in terms of annual passenger volume.

Big strategic shift toward volume rather than focusing purely on margins. But at least when you look at Celebrity Retreat pricing, you see that many of their suites maintain very high prices even as they've added the 4th Edge-class ship, so Disney probably believes that even if there's some margin pressure by growing this large, there's still a huge cruise market they can cater to, so it makes sense to push their production possibilities frontier out to a new point.

I personally think they're going to flood the market with supply and crash prices. 11 large ships (plus maybe the Magic+Wonder) carrying on average about 5,500 passengers is like the equivalent of a Magic Kingdom crowd at sea every day. Meanwhile Royal, Carnival, MSC, Virgin and others are all coming into the market with a ton of ships.

I'd love to be in the strategy department at Disney to better understand their thinking here. Is land just too expensive, so they can't launch equivalent projects on land? So their current best option is this battle at sea?

 

[Chrislovesdisney]

I’m hoping for smaller ships! I really felt the difference on the Dream this year vs. the Wonder.

 

[peder]

I’m hoping for smaller ships! I really felt the difference on the Dream this year vs. the Wonder.

I would say there's 0 chance of this. All 4 will be larger than the Wish and most likely 200,000+ GT.

 

[JM_97]

DCL is as popular as ever. There's no doubt they will be at least the size of the Wish and probably continue the trend of being themed from head to toe.

They are also preparing for the end of the Magic and Wonder without saying it. They will be 30 in a couple of years and I bet that internal conversations have already started about their lifespan.

 

[OKW Lover]

I would say there's 0 chance of this. All 4 will be larger than the Wish and most likely 200,000+ GT.

Did they say that? Or is this speculation?

 

[peder]

Did they say that? Or is this speculation?

The industry is just not moving in that direction. DCL would be way behind the other lines in terms of revenue, and their fleet is much smaller than the others, so they're not at any risk of building too big for the ports they serve. You'll notice that even mega ships like the Star Princess are serving Alaska now, and the MSC Euribia in Norway. These are ~180,000 GT ships. "Small" for the industry now means Disney Wish / Triton-class size.

 

[LAS2AMS]

For what it’s worth, my expectation is that the Magic/Wonder will sail until ongoing maintenance costs get to be too high to justify. We talked through this with senior staff on the Wonder last year, and they said the real risk is the plumbing systems; if the Wonder suffers a significant systems failure, it wouldn’t be cost effective to fix.

Beyond that, you should think about this the way you would a car that’s paid off. The new ships have a “car loan” (debt obligation from their construction); the Magic & Wonder are “paid off”. Rather than thinking about the lower margin/stateroom and lesser headcount/sailing, think of it as all upside because the ships are profitable and not costing Disney opportunities (since they’re still not able to cover the map with or without the two older ships).

My guess is the DCL execs are pursing dual paths: ideally in 2031 they have 13 ships (inclusive of Japan) but they’re also realistic that the wrong thing can break on the Magic/Wonder at any time.

The Magic and Wonder aren’t going to break down, that’s not a concern. DCL has 5 active ships in its fleet with 8 more planned to join the fleet in less than 7 years. Collectively, those 8 ships will (likely) have more than twice the capacity of the ships currently active. That’s extremely aggressive growth, to say the least. DCL has high margins due to the high demand. But even in the best case, the addition of 8 ships would pressure those margins.

Even today, the Magic and Wonder typically sell for far less than its peers. It’s only going to get worse. Sure, the ships may eek a profit… but if people are booking them closely for price, it’s surplus capacity and has an overall negative impact on the margins.